I have FINALLY compiled in the 2007 FCS attendance totals.

Teams over the 17K FBS minimum

FCS Att Rank over 2004-2007 School 2004-2007 Average per game attendance
1 Montana 22794
2 Yale 21650
3 Delaware 20845
4 Appalachian St. 20053
5 Southern U. 18739
6 Jackson St. 17245


Montana probably isn't willing to fight the in-state legislative crap storm to go anywhere without Montana St. Yale is content in the Ivy league. Delaware has not heard an offer they like, but clearly could survive in a Northeastern FBS conference --- if they wanted to. App. State is also in the same boat. Southen U and Jackson State are HBCUs that may be content in their HBCU FCS conferences and may not have FBS dreams.

12 - 17K, but possibly only stadium capacity upgrade away from FBS dreams.

7 Florida A&M 16607
8 Ga. Southern 16601
9 Youngstown St. 15486
10 Citadel 14176
11 N.C. A&T 13995
12 Tennessee St. 13975
13 South Carolina St. 13638
14 Norfolk St. 13621
15 James Madison 13275
16 Montana St. 13136
17 Harvard 12727
18 Northern Iowa 12555
19 McNeese St. 12483
20 Grambling 12417
21 Alabama St. 12216
22 Texas St. 12056

FAMU is another HBCU that has considered FBS status. Could there be a day in the near future where 6 HCBUs band together for a FBS jump? Ga Southern has proven all they can prove at the FCS level and is loudly considering FBS. Youngstown State is another school like Ga. Southern that has proven all they can at the FCS level. They would be a solid MAC school and probably will be if the NCAA forces two MAC schools down. My feeling is that the Citadel is competing at an appropriate level, but that is just an opinion. Maybe they could be as viable as Army, Air Force, and Navy if the government wants to expand recruiting by creating another military football team at the FBS level. NC A&T would be another 5th wheel ala ECU in FBS, IMO, but they certainly have done a great job at the FCS level. The Ga Southern/App. State of 2020? Tennessee State will probably be a struggling Sunbelt school one day, ala ULM...SC St. & Norfolk St. are HBCUs. James Madison would probably be able to jump to the FBS level if they improved their facilities. They pack their 14K stadium. A decent target for a NE conference. Montana state is the second school in a state smaller than Idaho. While they probably would do just as well as Idaho in the FBS level, I don't think the WAC is hurting enough and the cost of gas has shifted the evaluation criteria quite enough for the WAC to consider offering the required double bid both schools would need to be viable. I don't think either is really MWC caliber --- recall they had history with Wyoming and Wyoming is technically in the Denver market. I don't even know if Wyoming would get a MWC invite today. Harvard is Ivy. Northern Iowa is interesting. Their dome is a cap at 16K capaciy, but they fill it pretty well. They are one of several MVC schools who could very well cut it as FBS members if the conference as a whole headed that way. McNeese State should joins the Southland 4 in upgrading or content itself to stay at the FCS level. Frankly, they will probably never have this opportunity again. They could cut it in a very travel friendly conference like that. They have no market to speak of, but that could be overlooked for the 6/5 rule. Alabama state is an HBCU. Texas State is one of the Southland 4 jumping to FBS. They are a very large university in the coveted Austin TV market.

Large HBCU Conference (2020)?

5 Southern U. 18739
6 Jackson St. 17245
7 Florida A&M 16607
13 South Carolina St. 13638
14 Norfolk St. 13621
20 Grambling 12417
41 Texas Southern 9292
46 Alabama A&M 8649

My gut feeling is no. The HBCU's have a solid thing going. They play each other. They make money. They have reasonable footprints. The racial component of being an HBCU is not an issue. They are the rare FCS conferences that get TV time.

Why screw up a good thing? They have enough teams to make up 2 conferences. If half of them go FCS, you screw up a ton of rivalries --- FBS punish schools for playing FCS teams --- give everyone bigger travel footprints and you end up with uncomfortable white school vs. HBCU FBS bowl games that could lead to violence and underscore what a dated concept an HBCU is --- my person opinion. I am half Jamaican.

I think you will likely see a team like FAMU which is on the fringes of both footprints make the jump to FCS alone.

Delaware has no desire to move up.

Personally, I would replace Texas Southern with Tennessee State and Alabama A&M with Alabama State.

What you state may be valid points, and they may not. Besides, there are many Northern (or relatively Northern) HBCUs, even Publics. (SUNY College At Niagra Falls, Lincoln University of Pennsylvania, Cheney University of Pennsylvania, West Virginia State, Bluefield State, Ohio State-Wilburforce {Central State}, Ball State {Originally founded to compensate for blacks being banned from IU} Harris-Stowe, Lincoln University of Missouri, Pittsburg State, and Langston University of Oklahoma). Between those, and several NAIA and Division II Southern HBCUs, there'll be no shoetage of schools willing to take their place.

And any risk in this case could be seen as an opportunity, too. Given today's atmosphere, any such fight would probably mean that Bob Jones or Hampden-Sidney has entered FBS. Recruiting can be done at the expense of local politicians who see recruiting scholarship sports in less affluent areas as a hand out, for example.

I am certainly not AGAINST it, but I look at it for a cost relationship and I don't think I see more potential gain than loss.

Individual schools yes. A conference worth? Probably not.

I knew there were other HBCUs, but honestly I had no idea David Letterman's alma mater Ball State was an HBCU. Learn something new every day here.

Marketwise, Texas Southern could be quite important if such a conference did pop up. They are in the Houston Market. But I am not really pressing the point as some schools have much "bigger names", only trying to add some to the possibility of Texas Southern.

As has been well discussed in this forum. I take that to mean nothing presented has been viewed as better than their status quo of being one of the 5 most profitable FCS programs for the last decade. I would take that over a sunbelt invite too. But the Big East hasn't asked them to join. I doubt the even the MAC has. The question is, if say a CUSA-level conference offered them a slot, would they upgrade? My take is that since there isn't a CUSA conference that exists in their footprint, they would be losing money to upgrade. Even joining CUSA would hurt because travel would be rediculous. That could change.

I don't disagree with the conventional wisdom that Delaware does not currently want to move up. But on the same token, I don't think they have their heads up their butt. If it made financial sense, I am sure they would.

6.5K to 12K = probably could make the jump, but it won't be a piece of cake. Notable stadium improvements/expansion are almost defintely needed for an FBS run and the university has to have favorable enrollment numbers.


23 Furman 11745
24 Western Ill. 11730
25 Princeton 11365
26 Penn 11331
27 Jacksonville St. 10523
28 Western Ky. 10509
29 Illinois St. 10425
31 Missouri St. 10146
30 Central Arkansas 10283
32 Massachusetts 10140
33 Lehigh 10063
34 Southern Ill. 9713
35 Alcorn St. 9536
36 Villanova 9512
37 Eastern Ky. 9445
38 William & Mary 9441
39 Liberty 9310
40 Texas Southern 9292
41 UC Davis 9,165
42 Northwestern St. 9112
43 Ark.-Pine Bluff 8740
44 Sam Houston St. 8662
45 Alabama A&M 8649
46 Western Caro. 8551
47 Wofford 8274
48 Hampton 8241
49 Stephen F. Austin 8068
50 Northern Ariz. 7785
51 Bethune-Cookman 7779
52 Cal Poly 7707
53 FloridaInt'l 7571
54 Idaho St. 7543
55 Portland St. 7507
56 Coastal Caro. 7446
57 Morgan St. 7203
58 Elon 7149
59 Southeastern La. 7007
60 Mississippi Val. St. 6997
61 Southeast Mo. St. 6893
62 Weber St. 6878
63 Cornell 6781
64 Holy Cross 6755
65 VMI 6746
66 Chattanooga 6674
67 New Hampshire 6589
68 Richmond 6576
69 Sacramento St. 6576
70 Tennessee Tech 6546


6500 seems a good line in the sand. FAU was only drawing 5882 in their last year in FCS and they have struggled to even hit the old FBS #, 1500. (Mind you, a lot going on with that situation, but I am mostly just looking at the stats.)

Furman is patroit league = not giving out 65 full ride scholarships. Can't see them giving out 85 either. W. Illinois is frankly a suprise to me to be this high on the list. They are a small to mid sized public with 13K enrolled and a stadium of 15K. They might be able to eventually move up with the MVC, if the MVC takes that route. Princeton and Penn are Ivy league.

Jacksonville state has talked of moving up. W. Kentucky just jumped. Illinois St. and Missouri St. are two schools that I think could easily make the jump and might drive a MVC upgrade. Maybe that figures in a bit on why Youngstown is in the MVC? I love Central Arkansas. I think they TOTALLY made the right move jumping to the Southland. Their stadium is only 8K though so they will stay in FCS for now.

UMASS. Another FBS school waiting to happen. If there were a sunbelt level conference in their region, my gut is they'd jump. The travel to any conference other to ones where they don't have the skins is just too great. Lehigh. Patriot League. Southern Ill is in tha same boat as Ill St. and Missou St. Alcorn St. is an HBCU. Villanova is a wild card. They could probably get a UCONN deal from the Big East. If push comes to shove, do they jump? E. Kentucky technically, this is the kind of school that could find itself a home in a better conference if there is a CUSA split. They could luck into being an FBS conference's eight member. 22K stadium; 6K arena. Close to ECU and Marshall...

William & Mary would likely be a much recruited target if Charlotte, UMass, ECU, and others put something together. Small public, only a 12K stadium, but an 8K arena, established in 1693, and a "southern Ivy". That would be a feather in most conference's academic caps. Liberty is a very interesting school. It is a mid to large private with an enrollment of 14K ungdergrads and 6K grad students. It has a 12K stadium and a 9K basketball arena and is now out of debt. They are conspicuously larger and have larger facilities than all of their conference foes. That's a dark horse.

Texas Southern is an HBCU in Houston. UC Davis is a school much discussed here. They put together a massive fund-raising campaign ....and ended up with a 10K FCS appropriate stadium. Fundraising problems aside, this is a rare mix of great academics with a serious institutional desire to excell in athletics (A family friend played baseball there). In 10-15 years they will be jumping to FBS and shortly thereafter they may be in the Pac 10. They are a top notch, large academic public and that does get BCS attention.

Northwestern St. is in much the same position as schools like McNeese State. They really have no business even considering FBS --- they should be a FCS power --- but if they want to get back to the top division, the southland 4 is their best shot. Ark Pine Bluff is an HBCU. SHSU is on of the Southland 4 with plans to upgrade. Alabama A&M is an HBCU. W. Carolina is a small public at 9K enrollment. They are the kind of school FCS really suites. Wofford is a tiny private that does a great job in turning out football fans. Hampton is an HBCU.

SFA is small public at 11k with a 15K stadium and a 7K arena. Considering SHSU and Lamar are leaving and SFA would likely have a place in their FBS plans, the school is IMO probably making a mistake not to jump with them. FBS conferences would kill for those kinds of travel footprints. N. Arizona is very interesting. A 19K enrollment makes for a large alumni base. They are the other school in the enormous and enticing Pheonix DMA. They have out of date facilities, but are making a big push to upgrade their facilities. Their indoor dome seats 15K for football and 8K for basketball.

Bethune-Cookman is an HBCU. Cal Poly is a rare breed --- the California school that values football over basketball. 19K enrollment, they have a 12K stadium, but no natural home because the Big West doesn't play football. Their BB arena is 3K. If the Big Sky called, I have a feeling they might listen. I don't know if they can raise the money to ever consider an FBS run, but it should be noted that like SJ St. and Fresno St. they are members of the Cal State system.

Florida Int. in it's one year in the FCS range I tracked pulled 7571K in attendance. Like FAU, there are mitigating circumstances, but the stats are the stats.

Idaho St. If Idaho, the state flagship, can't get the state or their alumni to build them a new stadium, how would Idaho State? Strive to escape Idaho's shadow in FCS.

Portland State is a curious situation. 20 K enrollment in a great media market. Pounder suspects that the owner of the Timbers will gain control of nearby PGE stadium (20K capacity) and have it converted into a soccer-only home for his semi-pro team, effectively killing the PSU football program and turning it into a IAAA school. (There is a new 4K BB arena being built on campus.) The question is, can head coach Jerry Glanville have a breakout year this year? If they win, football is probably saved out there and IMO their chances of making it into the WAC in the next 10 years are pretty good. If they lose...?

Coastal Carolina = a small public playing at the right level. Morgan St. is an HBCU. Elon is a mid-sized private with FCS level facilities. SE Lousiana has a larger basketball arena (7.5K) than football stadium (7.4K). Considering how poor LA is right now, they probably aren't going to be joining the Southland 4, even though with an enrollment of 16K they appear potentially more viable at the FBS level than say ULM. SEL has really struggled to draw crowds to their BB games and it appears that LSU is acting like an NFL Killzone to thier programs.

Miss Valley St. is an HBCU. SE Mo. St. is a small public at 9K with an FCS sized stadium at 11K. They seem well placed in the OVC and in FCS. Weber St. (N. Utah) is interesting. With a 17K stadium and a 12K arena, it would not take much upgrading to get them to a sunbelt/lower MAC/lower WAC level if the WAC needed a team and couldn't get any of the regular suspects in bigger markets.

Weber state is a very solid basketball school and is not a long trip (ala UTSA) for most of the WAC schools. Utah State would PROBABLY raise a huge stink about it, but you never know. If attendance is an issue with them, they might bite for a big draw game with visiting fans on the schedule every 2 years to push up their average. I'll admit --- a tough sell. Call it "plan F".

Cornell is Ivy. Holy Cross is an interesting school. A small private with a healthy endowment and a 24K stadium in a big city with no pro teams AND in the Boston DMA, but as a patriot league team, I'd still list them as "unlikely". VMI is tiny. Chat is a small public with big enough facilities = 20K stadium 11K BB Arena. I think they are playing at the right level and should simply work on getting their attendance numbers & Revenue up to become an FCS power.

New Hampshire is interesting. They are in a podunk town, but there are a lot of people within 90 minutes -- probably 500K . They are a state flagship. In the boston DMA. They recently cut athletic programs to save money. I wonder if they aren't another Idaho --- great potential, no revenue streams to take advantage of it.

Richmond is another dark horse. Great BB program with a 22K stadium and no competition in Richmond --- for now. Would they jump to FBS to stay ahead of VCU in the minds of non-academics in the region? Mid sized private with good academic rep and large endowment. Could be a better Tulsa with the exposure FBS brings.

Sac St. Another of the dozen or so FCS schools with FBS sized stadiums. Sac. State has a 21K stadium that would work for FBS tomorrow. They have had a WAFL team and a CFL team in Sac and they drew decent numbers all things considered. It is very possible football would hit in Sacramento and the administration seems to be using that as their plan. Considering 2 members of the Cal State system are already in the WAC and Sacramento is a good TV market, I would not be suprised to see Sac State in the WAC in 10 years. Their BB Arena is strictly FCS though. They really need to upgrade that to 6K ASAP. Come on people, make revenue off your revenue sports!

Tennessee Tech at 9K they should stay in FCS, but like so many others they have a chance to move up because of their central location and facility capacities = 16K football and 10K basketball.

I think between issues at the FBS level (too many teams in the MAC, too few to support a CUSA east) and at the FCS levels (strong FBS candidates in the West, Texas, MVC, and NE... as well as a few borderline candidates on the TX/LA border and in Kentucky who could get lucky), this does help a bit to see where the areas are that could see expansion.

Finally for all you guys who just want the whole d**ned list, here's the rest.

71 Lafayette 6455
72 Eastern Wash. 6385
73 Eastern Ill. 6185
74 Samford 6089
75 Morehead St. 5897
76 FAU 5882
77 Nicholls St. 5745
78 Maine 5703
79 Brown 5534
80 Dartmouth 5517
81 EastTenn.St. 5441
82 Howard 5381
83 Prairie View 5100
84 Towson 5047
85 Colgate 4908
86 Columbia 4870
87 Dayton 4797
88 Hofstra 4651
89 Southern Utah 4622
90 Bucknell 4576
91 Fordham 4425
92 Stony Brook 4234
93 Northern Colo. 4,088
94 Austin Peay 4014
95 Savannah St. 4002
96 Murray St. 3867
97 Gardner-Webb 3710


I think these schools should really consider either downgrading, marketing more, getting into a more sensible conference, or a non-scholarship FCS conference (if they are not already).

98 San Diego 3571
99 Drake 3512
100 Delaware St. 3488
101 Northeastern 3469
102 Tenn.-Martin 3407
103 Rhode Island 3238
104 Davidson 3190
105 Indiana St. 2984
106 Albany (N.Y.) 2961
107 Monmouth 2956
108 Duquesne 2825
109 Central Conn.St. 2589

And I'd say these guys should really consider the above, dropping football entirely, or dropping to Div II. (Some already have.)

110 Marist 2320
111 Charleston So. 2272
112 Sacred Heart 2159
113 Wagner 2153
114 Georgetown 2097
115 Valparaiso 2058
116 Robert Morris 2055
117 Butler 2019
118 La Salle 1796
119 Jacksonville 1770
120 St.Mary(Cal.) 1654
121 Iona 1621
122 St.Peter's 1262
123 St.Francis (Pa.) 1102
124 Siena 887

Delaware does have a desire to build up.They have hired a consulting firm which is planning on enlarging its stadium to 35k.They also have a new university President.

WOW. That is big news. You don't upgrade to 35K to play in FCS. Can you post any links to this in the artcle section? It certainly adds a lot of fuel to the speculation that a new Eastern conference might form if Delaware is preparing for it.

This is the only story I could find:

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080416/SPORTS07/804160325/1002/SPORTS

I am surprised to learn that UMass draws only 10K per game iwth their program. I viewed them along with Delaware as potential BE additions. Guess not.

That is actually not a bad number all things considered. They have an old stadium that I think only seats 17K and the seats are probably not very comfortable. (are they even backed seats or benches?) The problem with them is getting the money to get the stadium to the 40K or so that a rubberstamp BE invite would require. As the flagship of the state of Massachusetts, UMASS can make the BE relevant in the Boston DMA and frankly that might make their admission worth doing.

I see it as the chicken and the egg. If the BE said, "Hey state of Massachusetts, if you build a 45K stadium we will admit your flagship", I think it would get built and the BE would profit from that, but making a public statement like that to an FCS school would diminish the BE's BCS status in their BCS peers's eyes. Without that, I don't think UMASS will be able to get more than an upgrade to 30K and that will be near impossible.

Frankly, UMASS should aim for a very doable 20-25 K and get in bed with Temple, Buffalo, and Charlotte. Maybe make the next stage putting in nice seats for the expensive tickets. Over time fill the 25K stadium, then upgrade. Baby steps.

Right now they are letting the idea of BE membership hold their program hostage. IMO.

Portland State is, for now, being positive about the possibilities with the Timbers and MLS. Nobody is publically putting PSU football on the shelf. The only red flag from PSU's perspective is that Paulson wants to add seats on the east side of the stadium, yet NOT increase the total capacity, suggesting retail opportunities for sections currently in the upper reaches of the west side seating area.

Idaho State's master plan for facility improvements requests a DOWNSIZING of Holt Arena in exchange for skyboxes. Not exactly desirous of moving up.

Northern Arizona being in the Phoenix DMA is a problem, not an asset. Flagstaff needs its own media for NAU to thrive. Phoenix is 140 miles away, and the Pac-10 schools have college ownership in a market that has at least one too many teams in Big 4 professional leagues. You could mention the burgs of Sedona, Cottonwood, and Prescott being part of the possible market (and there is a cable presence of Northern Arizona "media", sort of), and with the growth in that general area, that COULD develop. Maybe. I'm not holding my breath.

Sacramento State confounds me. I think they're about to go for broke with a flagging football program. They advanced the FB fieldhouse project in front of the arena project approved by students MANY years ago. Will there be any tangible benefit from that? I'm not so sure.

One of the reasons I get somewhat positive about UC Davis is because they have (or had) a longtime athletic director who pounded the pavement all over Northern California to get attention, etc. I think that might be paying off a bit, even though the football stadium dreams were subject to considerable downscaling. I'm curious to see if they go full steam ahead or hit a brick wall.