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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:22 am 
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I hope to do much of what I did with FCS here, but as I am pressed for time, I will be updating as time permits.

Additionally, my numbers are not as precise as the FCS numbers so they won't be listed.

Finally, I am just going to list the HBCUs. They seemingly all do well, but seem to by quite small universities. Additionally, as they are members of HBCU conferences in Div II, It seems likely they would jump to HBCU conferences in FCS, which seem a bit of a closed loop and therefore not as interesting to me in general as schools who could eventually go to FBS.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:29 am 
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I think you should have a 5-6K or larger enrollment to consider FCS and should have stadiums in the 6-15K+ capacity range. Having Arenas in the 4-7K+ range and baskeball stadiums in the 1-2K range would help a lot too. And Obviously a waiting FCS home.

Over 9K in average attendance.

School Conference HBCU?
West Texas A&M LSC
Tuskegee SIAC HBCU
Miles SIAC HBCU
North Dakota upgrading
Grand Valley State GLIAC
Pittsburg State MIAA

WT is the reigning Div II attendance leader. They are in a relatively small market though and out in the boonies, so their likely only path to FCS would be if they can convince the other strong football (mostly Texas) schools in the LSC to break away from the weaker Oklahoma and New Mexico schools and upgrade with them. At 23K enrolled periennial Div II power Grand Valley State should really be ramping up to be a MAC school, but the MVC would be a good home. Pittsburg St. is a small public in SE Kansas. If there was LSC breakaway, PSU could be invited.


7-9K in attendance
Northern Alabama Gulf South
Fort Valley State SIAC HBCU
Morehouse SIAC HBCU
Winston-Salem upgraded?
Albany State (GA) SIAC HBCU
South Dakota upgrading
Abilene Christian LSC
Central Missouri MIAA
North Carolina Central
Central Arkansas upgraded
Texas A&M-Kingsville LSC

Northern Alabama is a small public with an FCS sized football stadium at 14K. A good fit for the SoCon or OVC. Abilene Christian and Texas A&M-Kingsville are in the same boat as WT. Not enough TVs to be pursued by an existing FCS conference and too distant --- although Kingsville could draw Southland interest. Central Missouri is a small to mid sized public which would fit well in the MVC with it's large BB arena.

5-7K attendance
Angelo State LSC
Midwestern State LSC
Northwest Missouri State MIAA
Delta State Gulf South
Nebraska-Omaha MIAA
Washburn MIAA
Slippery Rock PSAC
Arkansas Tech Gulf South
Missouri Southern State MIAA
Benedict SIAC HBCU
Northeastern State LSC
Clark Atlanta SIAC HBCU
Valdosta State Gulf South
Tarleton State LSC
Lenoir-Rhyne SAC

I have droned on enough about the plight of the LSC haves, so just consider that "ditto". Northwest Missouri State, Nebraska-Omaha, Washburn, Arkansas Tech, Missouri Southern State are all in that MVC footprint. My take is Nebraska-Omaha is the only natural FCS and MVC school in the lot. They have a small BB stadium, but are apparently loaded and have a lot of cheap land around. They could move up quickly, but my take is basketball will ultimately decide whether the MVC bites so they need a new arena. The others are too small would need to see how things shake out, although Washburn could get an invite from a breakaway LSC too. Arkansas Tech might consider joining the remaining non- Texas LSC teams if that scenario arose (travel). If a group of MVC publics broke away for FBS, the remaining public MVC schools would probably welcome all of these schools into an FCS MVC. Slippery rock with their 10K stadium would likely be welcomed to the NEC if space allows. Delta St. is at the right level. Valdosta St. would be a nice fit in the OVC or So Con. Aren't they already moving up? Lenoir-Rhynes is a tiny private. They are probably at the right level.


4-5K attendance
Emporia State MIAA
Elizabeth City State CIAA HBCU
West Alabama Gulf South
Virginia State CIAA HBCU
Shippensburg PSAC
Southern Arkansas Gulf South
Shaw CIAA HBCU
Kentucky State SIAC HBCU
Missouri Western State MIAA
Mary NSIC
Central Oklahoma LSC
Johnson C Smith CIAA HBCU
Saginaw Valley GLIAC

Emporia St. is another small public. Same options as Washburn. West Alabama is a very small public and should be content at the Div II level. Ditto w/ S. Arkansas. (S. Arkansas might join Ark. Tech in considering an affiliation with the non-Texas Div II LSC schools in the much mentioned breakaway LSC scenario for better travel --- if the Div II rules allow that. Today they might not as I think they are in regions, but even then you might see a region redrawn or slightly overlaid if a University asks.) Shippenberg is another potential NEC member. Missouri Western is at the right level, but could join other the previously mentioned MIAA schools in moving up if a gutted MVC invited them. Small private religious school U Mary is probably content at Div II. Central Oklahoma is the only LSC school that jumps out as a school that could jump to FCS today on their own. If they called the Southland, they could probably wrangle an invite. Saginaw Valley is a small to medium Public that might garner some MVC attention, but they are no Grand Valley State.


Last edited by finiteman on Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:56 am 
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Great work. Grand Valley St. is a school that has made sense for me when it comes to an upgrade.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:37 pm 
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The rest of Div II in more or less attendance order.

Shepherd
Presbyterian
Harding
Henderson State
Carson-Newman
Indiana (PA)
St. Cloud State
Nebraska-Kearney
Minnesota State-Mankato
Augustana (SD)
Ouachita Baptist
Stillman
Lane
California (PA)
Minnesota-Duluth
Catawba
Fayetteville State
Westchester
Virginia Union
East Central
Bryant
Northern Michigan
Indianapolis
East Stroudsburg
Livingstone
Bloomsburg
UNC Pembroke
Chadron State
St. Paul's
Kutztown
Northern State
Newberry
Millersville
Ashland
Edinboro
Southeastern Oklahoma
Clarion
Western Georgia
North Greenville
Ferris State
Fort Hays State
Mars Hill
Truman
Missouri S&T
Humboldt State
E. New Mexico
C. Washington
Southwestern Oklahoma
Bowie State
Winona State
Missouri-Rolla
Arkansas-Monticello
St. Augustine's
Wingate
Northwood
Western Oregon
Michigan Tech
Bentley
Charleston (WV)
Tusculum
Wayne St. (Mich)
West Liberty State
Western Washington
Texas A&M-Commerce
Glenville State
Mansfield
Lock Haven
Cheyney
CW Post
Concord
Merrimack
Adams State
Southwest Baptist
Southwest Minnesota State
Hillsdale
Mesa State
Colorado Mines
New Mexico Highlands
Concordia-State Paul
Southern Connecticut State
Mercyhurst
Stonehill
Chowan
Assumption
Wayne St. (Neb)
St. Joseph's (Ind)
Fort Lewis
Gannon
Bemidji State
Pace
Findlay
Upper Iowa
Fairmont State
West Virginia State
Oklahoma Panhandle
St. Anselm
Kentucky Wesleyan
Lincoln (MO)
Western State
Tiffin
Western New Mexico
Western Virginia Wesleyan
American International
Minnesota State- Moorhead
Minnesota-Crookston


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 12:42 pm 
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Bumping up for newby david.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 11:01 pm 
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I think those kansas schools could move to FCS as a conference, but would be making a horrible mistake (IMO) to try moving up on their own. Their attendance numbers (IMO) are fueled by the proximity of their conference mates.

With regards to the Arky Tech/Tulsa point, it brings up an important concept IMO --- public enrollment is not the same as private enrollment.

Arky tech is a legit FCS candidate, but an enrollment of 7500 probably precludes them from making an FBS jump where Tulsa is a more than competent FBS school. Private schools like Tulsa have enormous endowments.

Where a public school might implement an athletic fee of $20 per semester hour to bump up their athletic budget to allow an FCS upgrade, private schools generally have a higher percentage of filthy rich alumni who can get them the money a lot easier. $20 is about as high as you'd see.

If a public school student taking a full load (15 hours) pays $20 per semester hour in athletic fees, they are contributing $300 per sememster or $600 per year to the atheletic department. (Additionally large student bodies are very helpful in making NCAA attendance minimums.)

Let's see what that looks like to an atheltic department budget.

with an enrollment of
3000 = $1.8M
7500 = $4.5M
10,000 = $6M
15,000 = $9M
20,000 = $12M
30,000 = $18M

now let's apply compare that to athletic budgets. (These numbers are a couple years out of date, but give you a good idea how this might apply).

Big Sky (N. Colorado@$6M to Montana@$13M)
Southland (Nicholls State@$4M to Texas State@$12M)
MVC (Evansville@$7M to Wichita State@$13M)
MAC (Akron@$10M to Miami(OH)@$21M)
Sunbelt (New Orleans@$4M to Denver@$19M)
WAC (La. Tech@10M to Fresno@$24M)
CUSA (Tulane@$17M to SMU@$32M)
MWC (CSU@$18M to TCU@$37M)
-----------------------------------------------------
Big East football (USF@$24M to UCONN@$49M) Basketball (Depaul@$13M to St. John's@$24M)
Big 10 (Illinois@$41M to Ohio State@$102M)
PAC10 (W. State@$27M to USC@$65M)
ACC (Wake Forest@$33M to Virginia@$92M)
SEC (Miss St.@25M to UF@$78M)
B12 (Iowa State@32M to UT@$84M)

Now as you can see, it is very difficult to see an FCS public university with an athletic budget in the 4-12M range and an enrollment in the 7500 range making the jump to FBS. If they had as a best case scenario an athletic budget of $12m and added in $4.5M in student fees, they would only have a $17M budget that would probably be attractive to a MAC or sunbelt level conference.

Arky Tech with a $3.6M athletic budget and an enrollment of 7500 could have a budget in the $5-8M range in short order --- that is more than competitive at the FCS level.

This is why I beleive a school like Utah Valley University with a $5M athletic budget and an enrollment of 24K, could have a budget as large as $20M in a few years and could find itself in the WAC, but I am a lot more skeptical about FCS power McNeese with their enrollment of 9K and athletic budget of $5M making the jump to FBS. I see AT BEST an $11M budget there. Add in a small media market and a number of nearby competitors and there is not a lot of FBS potential there...IMO. Now if the Sunbelt lost schools or McNeese chose to join the breakaway Southland 4, I could see them getting added, but I don't see any other potential homes for them. Their budget is simply too small to compensate for larger travel footprints. Travel costs would bleed the competitiveness out of their programs. They'd be in the same boat as La Tech...in a slow financial bleed.

other schools of note:
UTSA - $9M ->as much as $26M
Texas State - 13M -> as much as $30M
UNT - 17M to $25M in 2011 or so and rising quickly each year after.


Last edited by finiteman on Fri Nov 28, 2008 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 24, 2008 6:07 pm 
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finiteman wrote:
I hope to do much of what I did with FCS here, but as I am pressed for time, I will be updating as time permits.

Additionally, my numbers are not as precise as the FCS numbers so they won't be listed.

Finally, I am just going to list the HBCUs. They seemingly all do well, but seem to by quite small universities. Additionally, as they are members of HBCU conferences in Div II, It seems likely they would jump to HBCU conferences in FCS, which seem a bit of a closed loop and therefore not as interesting to me in general as schools who could eventually go to FBS.


WHAT :shock: :?: :?: :?: :?:
in other words you have no idea :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2009 7:30 pm 
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I am just not interested in FCS. It may be some people's cup of tea, but it isn't the majority's and I am in that majority.

There is only so much interest I can muster for HBCUs usually for that reason. FAMU really interested me when they were talking FBS. They became relevant to me. I don't see DII HBCUs that look like possible FBS schools, so I am just not interested in them/willing to spend a lot of time on them.

Additionally, it seems like "getting there" for an HBCU is often making it into the SWAC or MEAC....Getting to the top level of HBCU competition, rather than of all university competition. I am not horrbly interested in the FCS.

That's what I mean when I talk about a "closed loop".

I would speculate that you know a LOT more about HBCUs than me. You have your niche of obscure trivia and I have mine. :)


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