"Full BCS" 32M share conferences
Big Dozen (old big ten) (11/12)
Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, NorthWestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan STate, Michigan, ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame (non football member)
"the big tumbler"
ND will reach a deal with the Big 10. ND will play everything but football in the Big 10. As pounder has noted, ND may be the #1 Athletic school in the Chicago and NY markets. ND gives the Big 10 TV relevance in the NYC market and allows more normal scheduling in all the other sports. The big 10 doesn't want any other schools, so really they aren't doing themselves any favors by not offering ND the slot. And frankly, ND would collapse under a BIG 10 football schedule. Better for the Big 10 to allow them to keep their image of being a ntional power by playing a 50% cupcake schedule. The Big 10 will go by the "Big Dozen" to eliminate confusion with the big 12.
This will lead the PAC 10 to consider expansion. Colorado will be their consensus #11, with CSU, UNM, and Utah being debated as to whether they are worthy #12s in terms of what they deliver. My gut feeling is that the PAC 10 will ultimately decide to put off upgrading under the excuse that the Big 10 is still at 11.
It doesn't matter. The damage will be done. facing the possiblity of being squeezed out of the Denver market and relegated to a permanant 2nd tier conference will spur UT to act.
Top 10/Flagship 10 (10)
Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma,Arkansas, Texas Tech, Missouri, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, LSU
Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas will decide that it is now or never and announce plans for a breakaway conference with no NCAA tourney autobid. Tech will be a required cost to escape the Big 12. Missou and Colorado will be raided---enough for the 6/5 rule, but then UT will grab Kansas too, effectively killing the viability of the northern Seconds 6 conference. (I think there will be some backroom dealings. Without the other Texas schools, Baylor will want to get out of that northern Seconds 6 and into CUSA West with the other Texas schools --- as long as it is BCS too. My feeling is that part of the deal on UT leaving Baylor would be for UT & A&M to get Baylor and the other privates into the BCS --- Doable IMO. If you want UT, OU, and A&M in the BCS, you admit CUSA West as at least a Jr. BCS member.) UT will be happy to do it anyway. A big factor will also be UT putting the smack down on "insolent" Nebraska, their longtime B12 headache. Nebraska and the other schools will sue. UT and A&M and the state of Texas will be more than willing write them a check for 20-40M and it will be done with. The flagship conference will turn to their other targets. LSU will hemm and haw. UNM will be invited for 9 for football and it will seem that LSU will be out. LSU's professors will howl at the leadership for screwing up a good thing and LSU will beg in for the 10th and final spot.
Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA
With Colorado gone and irretrievable, the Pac 10 will stay, hiding behind the idea that ND is no more a 10th member of the B10 than the U of Chicago.
Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The SEC will melt down with the loss of LSU. The egos of the Alumni at Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, & Kentucky are no smaller than the egos at UT. They will blame the loss of LSU on small schools not delivering their TV revenue shares. Whether this will result in schools being voted out or the core of the SEC breaking away, I can't say. The end result is Ole' Miss, Miss State, and Vandy being gone and the SEC raiding the ACC. There will be a deal reached that protects the ACC's autmoatic bid by slowly transitioning say Clemson and Virginia Tech's non-football programs, but that will be as nice as the SEC will be. When the smoke has cleared the SEC will have a comparable TV deal to the Flagship 10.
"Jr BCS" 16M share conferences
Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Boston College, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, UCONN, Rutgers
The ACC will quickly add Vanderbilt --- a natural fit and similar institiution --- and UCONN and Syracuse. The plan will be to add Rutgers too over time, but as the raid of UCONN and Syracuse would lead to the BE BB schools breaking away, the ACC would have to move slowly not to kill the BE. The plan will be to try to keep the BE alive as a BCS conference and not make them immediately irrelevant in TV terms, while still protecting the ACC's interests. Long term the conference TV goal is to make the combination of Miami in football, Duke in basketball and the New England and NYC designated markets drive the conference.
Appalachian East: (8)
West Virginia, Cincinnati, USF, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Ole Miss, Miss State, S. Miss
Cut off from most of the Northeast and despirate to keep their BCS standing, the BE will nab BCS vets Ole' Miss and Miss State. That should be enough to keep them in the BCS lower tier. S. Miss will eventually replace Rutgers at the insistance of the Miss schools, Cinnci, and Louisville in a 5/2 vote.
Southwest Conference: (9/10)
SMU, Rice, Houston, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, UTEP, Baylor, TCU, St. Louis (non-football)
CUSA West would see their opportunity to push into the BCS Jr. Level and breakaway. The 4 privates SMU, Rice, Tulsa, & Tulane would suceed from CUSA with Houston and Memphis, leaving UTEP to CUSA East to protect their auto-bid. They would pull in Baylor as part of the deal for getting into the BCS. BCS status confirmed, the new SWC would trump the MWC in TCUs eyes. TCU would have some trouble extracting themselves from the MWC with their TV network. I anticipate a long legal struggle. I think ultimately TCU might cut a backroom deal with the gang of 5 to play non-football with the Gang of 5 for a few years to allow the gang of 5 better flexibility. St. Louis would be recruited on the back of BCS hype, a friendly footprint, great academics, and Tulsa and Memphis BB. UTEP BB would have to be sacificed for 5 years to allow Memphis in and not kill CUSA East.
Big 9: (9/10)
BYU, Utah, Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas State
A very pissed off Nebraska would cut a deal with the gang of 5 birthing the Big 9. With TCU playing its non-sports here in the interim as part of that negotiated settlement with the gang of 5, the conference would have the MWC autobid. Nebraska and the rest are not going to want to travel to Nevada and San Diego; BYU and Utah will protect the other members of the gang of 5. Nebraska and BYU's presence as true football power programs, the releatively strong academics of the gang of 5, and a settlement of some of the Flagship 10 damages would push this back into the BCS.
"Play in"/non-BCS conferences = $12M share possible
Southern Black Athletic Conference: (12)
Howard, Hampton, Norfolk State, NC A&T, South Carolina State, Florida A&M, Alabama A&M, Alabama State, Tennessee State, Jackson State, Southern U, Texas Southern
I had previously poo-pooed the idea of a HBCU conference in FBS, but someone made a very convincing arguement that they could lose a full conference of members from the SWAC and MEAC and not kill those historic conferences. Frankly it makes sense for academic elites Howard and Hampton to play in an FBS conference as it does for athletic elites FAMU, Jackson State, and Southern U. Having an FBS conference championship game and the chance for a BCS slot would be big TV money too.
ECU, UAB, Marshall, UCF, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Charlotte, Georgia State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion
CUSA East (S. Miss, ECU, UAB, Marshall, UCF, and UTEP BB) would retain their NCAA tourney bid and take the best markets and recruiting areas they could from the sunbelt without killing it --- Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida International. All 3 schools are established FBS schools and therefore not as scarring to CUSA'a cred as taking a joe blow FCS upgrade right off the bat. They would also offer Charlotte a home for football to recover some basketball credibility. I think from there, they would be content to pick and chose the best upgrading schools in a sensible footprint. UTEP would be in the SWC in all sports besides BB. When their 5 years are up they would join the SWC for BB as well. S. Miss would bail for a BCS conference with Ole Miss and Miss St and old CUSA foes Cinnci and Louisville. Georgia State will deliver relevance in large TV market Atlanta, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are FBS powers, and Old Dominion gives a nice market near ECU and good basketball.
Atlantic Football Conference: (9/12)
Temple, UMASS, Rhode Island (upgrading), Ohio, Miami (oxford), Buffalo, Delaware, Army, Navy, New Hampshire (upgrading), Maine (upgrading), SUNY Stony Brook (upgrading)
The late bloomer. I think losing Charlotte will be the kick in the butt the A10 needs to take action. I think you will see the FBS members and FBS dreamers cut a deal with the BB schools to get a Northeastern FBS conference up and running. Temple and UMASS would invite Ohio, Miami (oxford), and Buffalo and FCS power Delaware in to the A10 as full members. Army and Navy would be invited as football only members giving them their 8. Eventually the football schools would split away. The non-football A10 would become mostly a conference of privates and the FBS Atlantic Conference would take slowly transitioning Rhode Island with them as well as inviting New Hampshire, Maine, and SUNY Stony Brook as eventual all sports (FBS) members. The A10 and AFC would be preferred scheduling partners in the future and would sell their non-football sports rights together and divide them evenly as part of the deal.
Hawaii, Fresno State, Boise State, Idaho, Sacramento State, San Jose State,UNR, Utah State, San Diego State, UNLV, Portland State, Northern Arizona, UC-Davis (non-football), Cal Poly (non-football)
The MWC out of business after the defection of the gang of 5, SDSU & UNLV would be left with no options other than the WAC. I think from that point the WAC would look to expand. Sac State should be FBS ready by 2020. UNA is raising money to upgrade their facilities. Davis and Poly are good investments as partial members, but the expansion by adding FCS members is contingent on a new commisioner.
Missouri Valley Conference: (10)
N. Iowa, Wichita State (add football), Missouri State, Illinois State, S. Illinois, Indiana State, N. Illinois, W. Illinois, Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech
If Wichita State brings back football (they have a 30K stadium), I could see the publics breaking away to play FBS football around 2022 or so. N. Illinois would likely see an FBS MVC as an upgrade and a better footprint than the gutted MAC. Arky state is a good BB program. Louisiana Tech would also likely want in, has a good name, and has had some BB success in the past. Those 3 schools being invited would give the MVC the ability to start football with only 5 current MVC schools making the FBS jump immediately --- say N. Iowa, Wichita State (add football), Missouri State, Illionis State, S. Illinois --- all very reasonable candidates. W. Illinois already plays football in the FCS MVC.
The MVC would draw considerable TV revenue from Chicago, Missou, Arkansas, and Illinois.
Southwestland Conference: (8/9)
Texas State, Sam Houston, UTSA (=Alamo University or San Antonio University or The University of Central Texas), Lamar, TAMU-CC (=Corpus Christi University) , UT Arlington (=DFW university) (non-football), UNT, New Mexico State, UT Pan American (=University of South Texas) (non-football), UT-Brownsville/Texas Southernmost College (=Texas International University) (non-football), ULL
(I have taken the luxury of renaming some of the Texas schools to more growth appropriate names.) Texas State, Sam Houston, UTSA, Lamar would jump to FBS dragging along non-football member UTA and TAMU-CC. With 6/5, they would have or could sue the NCAA and quickly win an NCAA tourney autobid. UNT would again be denied by SMU and TCU from getting in with the CUSA West schools and would chose the friendlier SWland footprint and larger markets over the rebuilding Sunbelt. With UNT in, a level of FBS legitmacy would be conferred to the conference. It would be seen as "better than the sunbelt". Arky State, La Tech, and NM State would join to eliminate travel costs and feed off the Texas TV revenue. Eventually La Tech and Arky State would leave for the MVC and UTEP for the SWC. I could also see the conference add a handful of larger South Texas non-football publics to increase the total conference alumni base and help lure in a short term rental like UTEP. UTPA actually makes travel sense in this conference. UTB/TSC might make sense too from an alumni standpoint---very important in state politics. This conference needs to go hard after the hispanic south Texan (as well as the big city Texan) to get good TV numbers. Having NMSU, UTSA, UTB/TSC, TAMU-CC, AND UTPA would help a LOT in branding southern New Mexico and South Texas as "Southwestland Territory". It might end up being a rare "soccer as a money sport" conference, too. ULL might be an eventual replacement #8 for football if UTA, UTB/TSC, or UTPA still hasn't picked it up by time LA Tech, Arky State, and UTEP leave. It is POSSIBLE that SFA might get an invite by the insistance of Sam Houston, or Northwestern State based on the Shreveport market, but my gut is if neither school upgrades with the others they are doomed to a Sunbelt or FCS future.
Bowling Green, Toledo, Ball State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan*, Akron, Kent State*, Western Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, Youngstown State, Grand Valley State
* Kent St. & Eastern Michigan forced down to FCS by NCAA (non-football members).
The defections to the AFC and to the MVC would define the level at which the MAC operates, but it would also shirk it's footprint, which would probably help finances. KSU and EMU are the two worst offenders on the NCAA's minimum attendence rules. If anyone would be made an example of by the NCAA, it would be them. If that happened, that would help finances leaguewide too. All of the worst draws (Buffalo, KSU, & EMU) would be out of MAC football and replaced by stronger programs. WKY wanted into the MAC over the sunbelt and would still. EKY is the cream of the OVC and would probably want in. Longtime FCS power Youngstown State has wanted in forever. Current Div II powerhouse Grand Valley State is probably eyeing what might be a reasonable level to upgrade to as well.
Sun Belt (8/10)
ULM, Middle Tenn State, South Alabama, New orleans (non-football), UALR (non-football), Jacksonville State, James Madison, UT Chattanooga, The Citadel
The oft abused non-football schools would again save the Sunbelt from extinction (ie. loss of their tourney autobid). ULL might eventually get an invite from the Southwestland to keep them at 8...assuming UTA doesn't pick up football by then. Jacksonville State is in a decent market (Birmingham) but likely will have a small stadium. James Madison will be a prized add. Their stadium will be 25K soon and they could be another Troy. UT-Chatt just seems like a sunbelt school. The Citadel has been upgrading their stadium to FBS level. They could go Indy, but I think early on the sunbelt with its semi-local travel would be appealing.
FCS conferences being discussed as potential upgrades on this board in 2025...
Big Sky: (10)
Montana, Montana State, Northern Colorado, E. Washington, Idaho State, Weber State, Southern Utah, Utah Valley, W. Washington, C. Washington
Montana is clearly biding time until MSU is ready. Maybe by 2025. At that point all of the above could be ready.
Great West: (12)
USD, UND, SDSU, NDSU, Minnesota State Mankato, Minnesota State Moorehead, University of Minnesota Duluth, Saint Cloud State, Nebraska Omaha, UW-Whitewater, UW-Oshkosh, UW-Eau Claire
I think this is the master plan of the Great West -- For all 4 Dakota schools to upgrade off the TV strength of the Wisconsin and Minnesota DMAs. I don't think any other conference is going to really pull all 4 Dakota schools with them to FBS, although the MVC could pull 2.
Ohio Valley: (9)
Austin Peay, E. Illinois, Moorhead St., Murray St., SE Missouri St., SIU-Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Tennesses Martin, C. Missouri
Other FCS conferences
Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Morgan State, Winston-Salem State, North Carolina Central
The MEAC would just add NCC and keep chugging along.
Alcorn State University, University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Grambling State University, Mississippi Valley State University, Prairie View A&M University, Tuskegee University, Miles College, Morehouse College, Fort Valley State, Albany State University
The SWAC has a ton of capable Div II HBCUs waiting for slots.
McNeese State, Nicholls State, Northwestern State, SE Louisiana, SFA, UCA, Arkansas Tech, S. Arkansas, Houston Baptist (non-football), TAMU-Commerce, Dallas Baptist (non-football), Centenary (non-football), Oklahoma City(non-football)
I suspect we might see a BB only school or two added to the southland in the next two years to protect against a western breakaway. Recall UCA would not be a core member in 2013, meaning adding another core 5 years before a potential breakaway might be the only thing that stops the southland from losing their tourney bid (even a BB-only 10 year membership for DI dreg Savannah State would protect their bid.) After the Southland 4 (or 6) leave, the rest of the southland would bring in a few more non-football members and Div II upgrades satisfy the 7 core rule and to give more of a cushion. Arkansas Tech & S. Arkansas jump out as two good upgrade candidates although S. Ark is tiny. Houston Baptist would give the conference a good market for basketball and is a reasonable travel distance and as such would be worth doing. TAMU-Commerce is a dog Div II school today, but if the LSC abandons them, could still be a decent add for the southland by 2025 or so. Eventually they might also grab a school like Dallas Baptist too for the same reasons they'd add Houston Baptist. (Tute made a great point below that the southland would grab small budget large DMA schools nearby like Centenary and Okl City U and I have modified mine due to that brilliance.)
Really I am more harsh on the remaining sunbelt schools than I should be. It would be a solid FCS conference. I think any talk of the southland upgrading in 2025 will be crazy talk though as there won't be sufficient TV for them and the individual schools will have little to offer existing conferences.
University of Central Oklahoma, Northeastern State University (OK), University of West Texas (fomerly West Texas A&M University), Midwestern State University (TX), Angelo State University, Tarleton State University, Abilene Christian University, Texas Woman's University (non-football), UT- Dallas (non-football), Metro State (CO) (non-football), UC - Colorado Springs (non-football), Oral Roberts (non-football)
The football 7 are the almost all of the better football programs in the Div II LSC. Most of them dream of getting to or back to a point where they could at least play FCS football. All have well attended games that would work at that level but lack the TV market to make any BB TV revenue. I think they will eventually wise up and upgrade stealing some good BB only schools in larger markets to make it all work. Keeping the footprint small, it could work. They could set their football scholarship cap at 30 full scholarships and still compete in FCS as they'd be using Texans. UTD and TWU would help in Dallas. MS and UCCS would deliver Denver and Colorado Springs TV relevance in BB. Oral Roberts fits the panhandle/religious culture flavor in this conference and would help a lot in Tulsa.
Other IAAA conferences
Big East: (10)
Depaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Dayton, Duquesne
The Big East doesn't care so much about long term rivalries with WV and Pitt as much as they do UCONN and Syracuse. Cinnci and Louisville are really nice, but replaceable. Ultimately the BE BB schools will break away for stability. Xavier and Dayton bridge both sides. Duquesne replaces Pitt as a Pittsburg presence.
Fordham, George Washington, Lasalle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Joesephs, Detroit, Boston U, Vermont, Northeastern, Siena, Fairfeild, Hofstra, William & Mary
The A10 would might add Detroit, but I think in general they'd stay with respected eastern Privates in good markets and maybe an academic flagship with no football dreams like Vermont. I could see MAAC BB attendance champ Siena and runner up Fairfeild. Siena helps in upstate NY. Fairfeild is in the NYC DMA and Connecticut. Hofstra is another solid BB school in NYC. William & Mary is likely too small to have FBS dreams, but would be a great academic and esteem addition. Again stability, good markets, and a reasonable footprint is the name of the game.
I could also see a raid or merger with the Patroit league. Every one of those schools are High falutin' universities just a notch or two below Ivy and would be feathers in any conference hat. The fact that they give scholarships but draw the line at football scholarships would probably make them quite attractive to the A10 Privates. Add the fact that Army and Navy, two AFC schools are in the mix and it might be irresistable. IMO depends what happens with the Ivy.
University Athletic Association: (10)
Brandeis University, Carnegie Mellon, Case Western Reserve University, Emory University, New York University, University of Chicago, University of Rochester, Washington University in St. Louis, Johns Hopkins University, MIT
None of the former nerdy nine wants to give scholarships for athletics, but I think eventually the business reality will hit for both them and the Ivy League. The NCAA may put the screws to Ivy league football insisting they play at the Div II level to prevent conferences like the LSC from moving up. I think what might come out is the traditional academic elites might start giving non-football scholarships to compete with UT and Stanford in the Olympic sports. Basketball might be as far as they are willing to go with money sports. Johns Hopkins COULD return. I think MIT would get in. I think the nerdy 9 and the Ivy league would mostly play the Patriot league and each other. Freakin' snobs.
Ivy League: (8)
eh... them. I could see Div II Football and IAAA other sports.
Chicagoland conference: (8)
Denver, Bradley, Creighton, Drake, Evansville, Butler, Loyola Chicago,Valpo
A BB conference created from the ashes of the MVC. Lack of an automatic bid cost them some potential members, but it was still a very salty conference.
Cleveland State, Wisc Green Bay, Wisc Milwaukee, UIC, Wright State, SIU -Edwardsville, IUPUI, IUPUFW, UMKC, UMSTL, Oakland University, Chicago State
Birthed from the wreckage of the Horizon and Summit leagues (and a few Div 2 upgrades) and fueled by large alumni bases in major markets, the Horizon/Summit is one of the leading Mid-majors of 2025.
Baruch College, Brooklyn College, City College of New York, College of Staten Island, Hunter College, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Lehman College, Medgar Evers College, New York City College of Technology, York College
If ever a conference screamed IAAA it is the CUNYAC. Consider these are blue collar schools with a combined enrollment of 124K. These grads are for the most part staying in the city, so how relevant would this be to NY City viewers???? There has to be over 2M alumni in the NYC DMA. Basketball talent hotbed where a number of players have trouble getting into the better schools. Basketball games a subway ride away in a market bigger than most conferences' market TOTAL? Fegedaboutit!
Last edited by finiteman on Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.