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PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 1:06 pm 
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Ok, Here's the challenge.

There will probably be a realignment in 2011 and another around 2018... All of us have our ideas of what might happen in those two, so this deals with after all that shakes out.

Who will be in each conference? What factors will have shaped conference movement? Will the NCAA have adjusted their rules to favor larger conferences and to make them more stable, or will high travel costs have the lower tier conferences looking for smaller footprints?

Go as far or as little in detail as you want.


Last edited by finiteman on Fri Aug 01, 2008 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 3:32 am 
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Wow, this could be fun and difficult both, but I will give it a shot. I personally think you're going to see more and more schools shift to FBS.

Working from west to east:

PAC-12 (12)
---------
Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, Nevada, UNLV

WAC merges with Big Sky: (12)
-------
Idaho, Northern Colorado, Sacramento State, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Montana State, Utah State, Portland State, E. Washington, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Weber State

Mountain West: (12)
----------------------------
BYU, Utah, Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Hawaii, San Diego State, Fresno State, Montana, Montana State, Boise State

Southwest Conference (12)
------------------------------------
UTEP, TCU, SMU, Rice, Houston, Texas State, Sam Houston State, UTSA, Lamar, North Texas, Texas-Arlington (will add football) and Stephen F. Austin

Big 14
----------------------
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Memphis, Missouri State

SEC (12)
-----------
LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas

ACC (14)
-----------
Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Clemson, Florida Atlantic, Florida International

Great Lakes 12 (old big ten) (12)
---------
Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, N'Western, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan STate, Michigan, ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame

Big East (16)
----------
Syracuse, Rutgers, Delaware, West Virginia, South Florida, UCONN, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marshall, UMASS, New Hampshire, Charlotte, Central Florida, Army, Navy

Sun Belt (16)
-----------
Tulsa, Southern Miss, UAB, Tulane, LA-Monroe, LA-Lafeyette, Troy, Arkansas State, Middle Tenn STate, South Alabama, East Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana Tech, Georgia Southern, McNeese STate, Northwestern STate (La)

MAC (16)
--------
Bowling Green, Toledo, Ball State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Akron, Kent State, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Miami, Buffalo, Appalachian State, Temple, Western Kentucky, Illionis State

Ivy League also goes FBS


Last edited by mizzoufan on Mon Aug 04, 2008 3:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 12:44 pm 
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Great stuff man... and I love the formatting. Much better than the format I was using. (Still putting mine together...) I put my response in conference pecking order.



mizzoufan wrote:
Great Lakes 12 (old big ten) (12)
---------
Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, N'Western, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan STate, Michigan, ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame


So ND gives up independent football, eh?


mizzoufan wrote:
PAC-12 (12)
---------
Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, Nevada, UNLV


The Pac 10 with their choice of Western schools chose small market, lower tier education schools in NV over Colorado, Utah, or New Mexico, presumably over travel costs?


mizzoufan wrote:
SEC (12)
-----------
LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas


The SEC stands.


mizzoufan wrote:
Big 14
----------------------
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Memphis, Missouri State


The Big 12 adds the Memphis Market and seals off Missouri from new competitors. I like the idea, but financially does it work?


mizzoufan wrote:
ACC (14)
-----------
Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Clemson, Florida Atlantic, Florida International


I doubt this one. Consider that if you add FIU and FAU, you are essentially admitting that Miami has lost it.


mizzoufan wrote:
Ivy League


Not sure where to put the Ivy League. This is a bold choice. If the NCAA under lawsuit and BCS school pressure tells the Ivy League that non-scholarship conferences must all be moved down to at least Div II, could the Ivy league ego handle being forcably downgraded or would that be the kick in the butt they need to go FBS???? Frankly if they go FBS, could that wreak havoc at the top of the BCS standings? If you were Penn State and ND, which would you prefer, the B10 or the Ivy League... No brainer and admitting 1 of those schools as an "athletics only" member would be more than enough to legitmize the entire conference. Mind blowing.


mizzoufan wrote:
Big East (16)
----------
Syracuse, Rutgers, Delaware, West Virginia, South Florida, UCONN, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marshall, UMASS, New Hampshire, Charlotte, Central Florida, Army, Navy


Not very sexy and IMO that means not very likely --- but possible.


mizzoufan wrote:
Mountain West: (12)
----------------------------
BYU, Utah, Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Hawaii, San Diego State, Fresno State, Montana, Montana State, Boise State


Possible. It won't get the MWC into the BCS, but it one of the better plan out there for them.


mizzoufan wrote:
Southwest Conference (12)
------------------------------------
UTEP, TCU, SMU, Rice, Houston, Texas State, Sam Houston State, UTSA, Lamar, North Texas, Texas-Arlington (will add football) and Stephen F. Austin


I am really not sure how you arrived at this mix beyond geography.


mizzoufan wrote:
MAC (16)
--------
Bowling Green, Toledo, Ball State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Akron, Kent State, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Miami, Buffalo, Temple, Appalachian State, Western Kentucky, Illionis State


Very possible if there is no breakaway eastern conference. App. State is high profile, but the academics are not there for a better conference. W. Kentucky wants in. Illinois State could bail if Missou State does.


mizzoufan wrote:
Sun Belt (16)
-----------
Tulsa, Southern Miss, UAB, Tulane, LA-Monroe, LA-Lafeyette, Troy, Arkansas State, Middle Tenn STate, South Alabama, East Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana Tech, Georgia Southern, McNeese STate, Northwestern STate (La)


I don't see the Privates falling this low. They are in a good situation grouped together with the large sub B12 texas publics. I don't see how that falls apart unless Baylor gets pushed out of the B12. I also cannot see La Tech, UAB, and S. Miss getting into this conference unless you figure in a western 8/eastern 4 split of CUSA, rendering CUSA East out of business.


mizzoufan wrote:
WAC merges with Big Sky: (12)
-------
Idaho, Northern Colorado, Sacramento State, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Montana State, Utah State, Portland State, E. Washington, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Weber State


I can see this.

Good stuff man!


Last edited by finiteman on Wed Aug 06, 2008 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:47 pm 
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This is what I see as the most likely outcome (conference manuevers in bold)
The three dominant BCS conferences:

SEC East: Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn
SEC West: Louisiana State, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma

Northern 12 South: Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers
Northern 12 North: Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

PACIFIC TEN: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, UCLA, Southern California, Arizona, Arizona State

The other BCS conferences:

ACC ATLANTIC: Boston College, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland
ACC COASTAL: Duke, North Carolina, Miami (Florida), Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech

Southern Ivies East: Tulane, Alabama-Birmingham, Central Florida, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Non-football: Saint Louis

Southern Ivies West: Tulsa, Houston, Texas at El Paso, Southern Methodist, Texas Christian, Baylor
Non-football: Rice

The Metro: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, South Carolina, Memphis, Temple
Non-football: Notre Dame

The Big Nine: Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Brigham Young, Utah

The Mountain West: UNLV, San Diego State, Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico, Fresno State, Nevada-Reno, Boise State,

‘BCS-level’ Football Independents: Notre Dame, Hawaii

Non BCS FBS NEW! August 27th:

North Atlantic Conference: Delaware, Massachusetts, Old Dominion, James Madison, Georgia State, Eastern Carolina, UNC-Charlotte, SUNY-Buffalo
Non-football members: George Mason, SUNY-Stony Brook

Mid-American Conference:
MAC East: Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio), Akron, Toledo, Ohio, Marshall
Non-football: Kent State
MAC West: Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State
Non-football: UW-Milwaukee

The WAC: Louisiana Tech, Utah State, UT-San-Antonio, Lamar, Sam Houston State, Texas State-San Marcos, Southern Mississippi, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas

The Sun Belt: Florida International, Florida Atlantic, Troy, South Alabama, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Florida A&M, Tennessee State, North Carolina A&T

Non-BCS Independents: Army, Navy, Air Force, The Citadel

Independents: Army, Navy, Air Force, The Citadel

Division I FCS:
Atlantic Ten: Saint Joesph's, Richmond, La Salle, Duquenese, Fordham, George Washington, Saint Bonaventure, Boston University, Rhode Island, William & Mary
"Atlantic Ten" Football: Richmond, SUNY-Albany, SUNY-Stony Brook, Maine, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Villanova, William & Mary, Townson, Hofstra

The Big Sky: Montana State, Montana, Sacramento State, Portland State, Northern Arizona, Idaho, Eastern Washington, Idaho State, Northern Colorado, Weber State, Cal Poly
Non-football: Hawaii

BIG SOUTH: Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina, Gardener-Webb, High Point, Liberty, Presbyterian, Radford, UNC-Asheville, Virginia Military Institude, Winthrop

IVY LEAGUE: Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, Princeton, Penn, Yale

Missouri Valley: Drake, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Indiana State, Witchita State, Evansville, Missouri State, Youngstown State, Eastern Michigan,
"Missouri Valley" Football: Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Youngstown State, Eastern Michigan,

The Southland (10): The University of Central Arkansas, Nichollis State, Northwestern State, Southeastern Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, Arkansas State,
Non Football Members: UT-Arlington, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Houston Baptist, New Orleans, Arkansas-Little Rock

The MEAC: Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State, Delaware State, Hampton, Howard, MD-Eastern Shore, Morgan State, Norfolk State, South Carolina State, Winston-Salem State, North Carolina Central

FCS Football Independent: UC-Davis

THE SWAC: Alabama A&M, Alabama State, Alcorn State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling State, Jackson State, Mississippi Valley State, Prairie View A&M, Southern, Texas Southern

The Great West (10) North Dakota, South Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Utah Valley University, Southern Utah University, Saint Cloud State, Minnesota State-Mankato
Non-football: Denver, Metro State

The Patriot League: Bucknell, Colgate, Lafayette, Lehigh, American,Sacred Heart University, Saint Francis University, Saint Francis College, Wagner College

Patriot League Football: Bryant, Sacred Heart, Saint Francis University, Monmouth, Robert Morris, Wagner, Colgate, Lafayette, Lehigh,

Southern Conference: Elon, Furman, Samford, Wofford, Jacksonville, Campbell, Mercer, UT-Chattanooga, Western Carolina, Kennesaw State
Non-football: Davidson, Eastern Tennessee State

Division I non-football:
American East: UMBC, SUNY-Bighamton, SUNY-Albany, Hartford, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Central Conneticut State

Big East: Villanova, Georgetown, Providence, Saint John's, Seton Hall, Marquette, DePaul, Holy Cross, Xavier, Dayton

Big West: San Jose State, Cal State Fullerton, Cal State Northridge, Long Beach State, UC Davis, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, UC Santa Barbara, Pacific, Cal State Bakersfield

Colonial Athletic Association: Northeastern, Drexel, Hofstra, Towson, Virginia Commonwealth, UNC-Wilmington, UNC-Greensburo, College of Charleston

The Summit League: IUPFW, IUPUI, Central Oklahoma, Oral Roberts, Oakland University, Western Illinois, University of Nebraka-Omaha, Texas-Pan American, Chicago State

The Horizon League: Butler, Cleveland State, Detroit (Mercy), UW-Green Bay, Loyola of Chicago, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaisio, Wright State, Missouri-Kansas City, Missouri-St Louis

The Northeast Conference: Bryant University, Farleigh thingyinson, Long Island University, Monmouth, Mt Saint Mary's, Manhattan College, Quinnipiac, Robert Morris, New Jersey Tech

Atlantic Sun Conference: Stenson, Belmont, Lipscomb, North Florida, South Carolina-Upstate, Tampa University, Winston-Salem State, Savannah State, Longwood

MAAC: Canisius, Fairfield, Loyola (Maryland), Niagra, Rider, Siena, Saint Peter's, Marist College, Iona College

The West Coast Conference: Gonzaga, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, University of Portland, Saint Mary's (CA), University of San Diego, University of San Fransisco, Santa Clara, University of Seattle


Last edited by thelurker on Wed Aug 27, 2008 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:01 pm 
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================================
"Full BCS" 32M share conferences
================================

Big Dozen (old big ten) (11/12)
---------
Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, NorthWestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan STate, Michigan, ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame (non football member)

"the big tumbler"

ND will reach a deal with the Big 10. ND will play everything but football in the Big 10. As pounder has noted, ND may be the #1 Athletic school in the Chicago and NY markets. ND gives the Big 10 TV relevance in the NYC market and allows more normal scheduling in all the other sports. The big 10 doesn't want any other schools, so really they aren't doing themselves any favors by not offering ND the slot. And frankly, ND would collapse under a BIG 10 football schedule. Better for the Big 10 to allow them to keep their image of being a ntional power by playing a 50% cupcake schedule. The Big 10 will go by the "Big Dozen" to eliminate confusion with the big 12.

This will lead the PAC 10 to consider expansion. Colorado will be their consensus #11, with CSU, UNM, and Utah being debated as to whether they are worthy #12s in terms of what they deliver. My gut feeling is that the PAC 10 will ultimately decide to put off upgrading under the excuse that the Big 10 is still at 11.

It doesn't matter. The damage will be done. facing the possiblity of being squeezed out of the Denver market and relegated to a permanant 2nd tier conference will spur UT to act.

Top 10/Flagship 10 (10)
----------
Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma,Arkansas, Texas Tech, Missouri, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, LSU

Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas will decide that it is now or never and announce plans for a breakaway conference with no NCAA tourney autobid. Tech will be a required cost to escape the Big 12. Missou and Colorado will be raided---enough for the 6/5 rule, but then UT will grab Kansas too, effectively killing the viability of the northern Seconds 6 conference. (I think there will be some backroom dealings. Without the other Texas schools, Baylor will want to get out of that northern Seconds 6 and into CUSA West with the other Texas schools --- as long as it is BCS too. My feeling is that part of the deal on UT leaving Baylor would be for UT & A&M to get Baylor and the other privates into the BCS --- Doable IMO. If you want UT, OU, and A&M in the BCS, you admit CUSA West as at least a Jr. BCS member.) UT will be happy to do it anyway. A big factor will also be UT putting the smack down on "insolent" Nebraska, their longtime B12 headache. Nebraska and the other schools will sue. UT and A&M and the state of Texas will be more than willing write them a check for 20-40M and it will be done with. The flagship conference will turn to their other targets. LSU will hemm and haw. UNM will be invited for 9 for football and it will seem that LSU will be out. LSU's professors will howl at the leadership for screwing up a good thing and LSU will beg in for the 10th and final spot.

PAC-10 (10)
---------
Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA

With Colorado gone and irretrievable, the Pac 10 will stay, hiding behind the idea that ND is no more a 10th member of the B10 than the U of Chicago.

SEC (14)
-----------
Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The SEC will melt down with the loss of LSU. The egos of the Alumni at Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, & Kentucky are no smaller than the egos at UT. They will blame the loss of LSU on small schools not delivering their TV revenue shares. Whether this will result in schools being voted out or the core of the SEC breaking away, I can't say. The end result is Ole' Miss, Miss State, and Vandy being gone and the SEC raiding the ACC. There will be a deal reached that protects the ACC's autmoatic bid by slowly transitioning say Clemson and Virginia Tech's non-football programs, but that will be as nice as the SEC will be. When the smoke has cleared the SEC will have a comparable TV deal to the Flagship 10.

===================================
"Jr BCS" 16M share conferences
===================================

ACC: (8)
-----------
Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Boston College, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, UCONN, Rutgers

The ACC will quickly add Vanderbilt --- a natural fit and similar institiution --- and UCONN and Syracuse. The plan will be to add Rutgers too over time, but as the raid of UCONN and Syracuse would lead to the BE BB schools breaking away, the ACC would have to move slowly not to kill the BE. The plan will be to try to keep the BE alive as a BCS conference and not make them immediately irrelevant in TV terms, while still protecting the ACC's interests. Long term the conference TV goal is to make the combination of Miami in football, Duke in basketball and the New England and NYC designated markets drive the conference.

Appalachian East: (8)
----------
West Virginia, Cincinnati, USF, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Ole Miss, Miss State, S. Miss

Cut off from most of the Northeast and despirate to keep their BCS standing, the BE will nab BCS vets Ole' Miss and Miss State. That should be enough to keep them in the BCS lower tier. S. Miss will eventually replace Rutgers at the insistance of the Miss schools, Cinnci, and Louisville in a 5/2 vote.

Southwest Conference: (9/10)
----------
SMU, Rice, Houston, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, UTEP, Baylor, TCU, St. Louis (non-football)

CUSA West would see their opportunity to push into the BCS Jr. Level and breakaway. The 4 privates SMU, Rice, Tulsa, & Tulane would suceed from CUSA with Houston and Memphis, leaving UTEP to CUSA East to protect their auto-bid. They would pull in Baylor as part of the deal for getting into the BCS. BCS status confirmed, the new SWC would trump the MWC in TCUs eyes. TCU would have some trouble extracting themselves from the MWC with their TV network. I anticipate a long legal struggle. I think ultimately TCU might cut a backroom deal with the gang of 5 to play non-football with the Gang of 5 for a few years to allow the gang of 5 better flexibility. St. Louis would be recruited on the back of BCS hype, a friendly footprint, great academics, and Tulsa and Memphis BB. UTEP BB would have to be sacificed for 5 years to allow Memphis in and not kill CUSA East.

Big 9: (9/10)
------------
BYU, Utah, Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas State

A very pissed off Nebraska would cut a deal with the gang of 5 birthing the Big 9. With TCU playing its non-sports here in the interim as part of that negotiated settlement with the gang of 5, the conference would have the MWC autobid. Nebraska and the rest are not going to want to travel to Nevada and San Diego; BYU and Utah will protect the other members of the gang of 5. Nebraska and BYU's presence as true football power programs, the releatively strong academics of the gang of 5, and a settlement of some of the Flagship 10 damages would push this back into the BCS.

=============================
"Play in"/non-BCS conferences = $12M share possible
=============================

Southern Black Athletic Conference: (12)
----------
Howard, Hampton, Norfolk State, NC A&T, South Carolina State, Florida A&M, Alabama A&M, Alabama State, Tennessee State, Jackson State, Southern U, Texas Southern

I had previously poo-pooed the idea of a HBCU conference in FBS, but someone made a very convincing arguement that they could lose a full conference of members from the SWAC and MEAC and not kill those historic conferences. Frankly it makes sense for academic elites Howard and Hampton to play in an FBS conference as it does for athletic elites FAMU, Jackson State, and Southern U. Having an FBS conference championship game and the chance for a BCS slot would be big TV money too.


CUSA: (12)
----------
ECU, UAB, Marshall, UCF, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Charlotte, Georgia State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion

CUSA East (S. Miss, ECU, UAB, Marshall, UCF, and UTEP BB) would retain their NCAA tourney bid and take the best markets and recruiting areas they could from the sunbelt without killing it --- Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida International. All 3 schools are established FBS schools and therefore not as scarring to CUSA'a cred as taking a joe blow FCS upgrade right off the bat. They would also offer Charlotte a home for football to recover some basketball credibility. I think from there, they would be content to pick and chose the best upgrading schools in a sensible footprint. UTEP would be in the SWC in all sports besides BB. When their 5 years are up they would join the SWC for BB as well. S. Miss would bail for a BCS conference with Ole Miss and Miss St and old CUSA foes Cinnci and Louisville. Georgia State will deliver relevance in large TV market Atlanta, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are FBS powers, and Old Dominion gives a nice market near ECU and good basketball.

Atlantic Football Conference: (9/12)
----------
Temple, UMASS, Rhode Island (upgrading), Ohio, Miami (oxford), Buffalo, Delaware, Army, Navy, New Hampshire (upgrading), Maine (upgrading), SUNY Stony Brook (upgrading)

The late bloomer. I think losing Charlotte will be the kick in the butt the A10 needs to take action. I think you will see the FBS members and FBS dreamers cut a deal with the BB schools to get a Northeastern FBS conference up and running. Temple and UMASS would invite Ohio, Miami (oxford), and Buffalo and FCS power Delaware in to the A10 as full members. Army and Navy would be invited as football only members giving them their 8. Eventually the football schools would split away. The non-football A10 would become mostly a conference of privates and the FBS Atlantic Conference would take slowly transitioning Rhode Island with them as well as inviting New Hampshire, Maine, and SUNY Stony Brook as eventual all sports (FBS) members. The A10 and AFC would be preferred scheduling partners in the future and would sell their non-football sports rights together and divide them evenly as part of the deal.

WAC: (12/14)
----------
Hawaii, Fresno State, Boise State, Idaho, Sacramento State, San Jose State,UNR, Utah State, San Diego State, UNLV, Portland State, Northern Arizona, UC-Davis (non-football), Cal Poly (non-football)

The MWC out of business after the defection of the gang of 5, SDSU & UNLV would be left with no options other than the WAC. I think from that point the WAC would look to expand. Sac State should be FBS ready by 2020. UNA is raising money to upgrade their facilities. Davis and Poly are good investments as partial members, but the expansion by adding FCS members is contingent on a new commisioner.

Missouri Valley Conference: (10)
----------
N. Iowa, Wichita State (add football), Missouri State, Illinois State, S. Illinois, Indiana State, N. Illinois, W. Illinois, Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech

If Wichita State brings back football (they have a 30K stadium), I could see the publics breaking away to play FBS football around 2022 or so. N. Illinois would likely see an FBS MVC as an upgrade and a better footprint than the gutted MAC. Arky state is a good BB program. Louisiana Tech would also likely want in, has a good name, and has had some BB success in the past. Those 3 schools being invited would give the MVC the ability to start football with only 5 current MVC schools making the FBS jump immediately --- say N. Iowa, Wichita State (add football), Missouri State, Illionis State, S. Illinois --- all very reasonable candidates. W. Illinois already plays football in the FCS MVC.

The MVC would draw considerable TV revenue from Chicago, Missou, Arkansas, and Illinois.

Southwestland Conference: (8/9)
----------
Texas State, Sam Houston, UTSA (=Alamo University or San Antonio University or The University of Central Texas), Lamar, TAMU-CC (=Corpus Christi University) , UT Arlington (=DFW university) (non-football), UNT, New Mexico State, UT Pan American (=University of South Texas) (non-football), UT-Brownsville/Texas Southernmost College (=Texas International University) (non-football), ULL

(I have taken the luxury of renaming some of the Texas schools to more growth appropriate names.) Texas State, Sam Houston, UTSA, Lamar would jump to FBS dragging along non-football member UTA and TAMU-CC. With 6/5, they would have or could sue the NCAA and quickly win an NCAA tourney autobid. UNT would again be denied by SMU and TCU from getting in with the CUSA West schools and would chose the friendlier SWland footprint and larger markets over the rebuilding Sunbelt. With UNT in, a level of FBS legitmacy would be conferred to the conference. It would be seen as "better than the sunbelt". Arky State, La Tech, and NM State would join to eliminate travel costs and feed off the Texas TV revenue. Eventually La Tech and Arky State would leave for the MVC and UTEP for the SWC. I could also see the conference add a handful of larger South Texas non-football publics to increase the total conference alumni base and help lure in a short term rental like UTEP. UTPA actually makes travel sense in this conference. UTB/TSC might make sense too from an alumni standpoint---very important in state politics. This conference needs to go hard after the hispanic south Texan (as well as the big city Texan) to get good TV numbers. Having NMSU, UTSA, UTB/TSC, TAMU-CC, AND UTPA would help a LOT in branding southern New Mexico and South Texas as "Southwestland Territory". It might end up being a rare "soccer as a money sport" conference, too. ULL might be an eventual replacement #8 for football if UTA, UTB/TSC, or UTPA still hasn't picked it up by time LA Tech, Arky State, and UTEP leave. It is POSSIBLE that SFA might get an invite by the insistance of Sam Houston, or Northwestern State based on the Shreveport market, but my gut is if neither school upgrades with the others they are doomed to a Sunbelt or FCS future.


MAC (10/12)
--------
Bowling Green, Toledo, Ball State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan*, Akron, Kent State*, Western Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, Youngstown State, Grand Valley State
* Kent St. & Eastern Michigan forced down to FCS by NCAA (non-football members).

The defections to the AFC and to the MVC would define the level at which the MAC operates, but it would also shirk it's footprint, which would probably help finances. KSU and EMU are the two worst offenders on the NCAA's minimum attendence rules. If anyone would be made an example of by the NCAA, it would be them. If that happened, that would help finances leaguewide too. All of the worst draws (Buffalo, KSU, & EMU) would be out of MAC football and replaced by stronger programs. WKY wanted into the MAC over the sunbelt and would still. EKY is the cream of the OVC and would probably want in. Longtime FCS power Youngstown State has wanted in forever. Current Div II powerhouse Grand Valley State is probably eyeing what might be a reasonable level to upgrade to as well.


Sun Belt (8/10)
-----------
ULM, Middle Tenn State, South Alabama, New orleans (non-football), UALR (non-football), Jacksonville State, James Madison, UT Chattanooga, The Citadel

The oft abused non-football schools would again save the Sunbelt from extinction (ie. loss of their tourney autobid). ULL might eventually get an invite from the Southwestland to keep them at 8...assuming UTA doesn't pick up football by then. Jacksonville State is in a decent market (Birmingham) but likely will have a small stadium. James Madison will be a prized add. Their stadium will be 25K soon and they could be another Troy. UT-Chatt just seems like a sunbelt school. The Citadel has been upgrading their stadium to FBS level. They could go Indy, but I think early on the sunbelt with its semi-local travel would be appealing.

=================================================================================
FCS conferences being discussed as potential upgrades on this board in 2025...
=================================================================================

Big Sky: (10)
-----------
Montana, Montana State, Northern Colorado, E. Washington, Idaho State, Weber State, Southern Utah, Utah Valley, W. Washington, C. Washington

Montana is clearly biding time until MSU is ready. Maybe by 2025. At that point all of the above could be ready.

Great West: (12)
-----------
USD, UND, SDSU, NDSU, Minnesota State Mankato, Minnesota State Moorehead, University of Minnesota Duluth, Saint Cloud State, Nebraska Omaha, UW-Whitewater, UW-Oshkosh, UW-Eau Claire

I think this is the master plan of the Great West -- For all 4 Dakota schools to upgrade off the TV strength of the Wisconsin and Minnesota DMAs. I don't think any other conference is going to really pull all 4 Dakota schools with them to FBS, although the MVC could pull 2.

Ohio Valley: (9)
--------------
Austin Peay, E. Illinois, Moorhead St., Murray St., SE Missouri St., SIU-Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Tennesses Martin, C. Missouri

=================================================================================
Other FCS conferences
=================================================================================
MEAC: (7)
Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Morgan State, Winston-Salem State, North Carolina Central 

The MEAC would just add NCC and keep chugging along.

SWAC (10)
Alcorn State University, University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Grambling State University, Mississippi Valley State University, Prairie View A&M University, Tuskegee University, Miles College, Morehouse College, Fort Valley State, Albany State University

The SWAC has a ton of capable Div II HBCUs waiting for slots.

Southland: (7/12)
-------------------
McNeese State, Nicholls State, Northwestern State, SE Louisiana, SFA, UCA, Arkansas Tech, S. Arkansas, Houston Baptist (non-football), TAMU-Commerce, Dallas Baptist (non-football), Centenary (non-football), Oklahoma City(non-football)

I suspect we might see a BB only school or two added to the southland in the next two years to protect against a western breakaway. Recall UCA would not be a core member in 2013, meaning adding another core 5 years before a potential breakaway might be the only thing that stops the southland from losing their tourney bid (even a BB-only 10 year membership for DI dreg Savannah State would protect their bid.) After the Southland 4 (or 6) leave, the rest of the southland would bring in a few more non-football members and Div II upgrades satisfy the 7 core rule and to give more of a cushion. Arkansas Tech & S. Arkansas jump out as two good upgrade candidates although S. Ark is tiny. Houston Baptist would give the conference a good market for basketball and is a reasonable travel distance and as such would be worth doing. TAMU-Commerce is a dog Div II school today, but if the LSC abandons them, could still be a decent add for the southland by 2025 or so. Eventually they might also grab a school like Dallas Baptist too for the same reasons they'd add Houston Baptist. (Tute made a great point below that the southland would grab small budget large DMA schools nearby like Centenary and Okl City U and I have modified mine due to that brilliance.)

Really I am more harsh on the remaining sunbelt schools than I should be. It would be a solid FCS conference. I think any talk of the southland upgrading in 2025 will be crazy talk though as there won't be sufficient TV for them and the individual schools will have little to offer existing conferences.

LSC: (7/12)
--------------
University of Central Oklahoma, Northeastern State University (OK), University of West Texas (fomerly West Texas A&M University), Midwestern State University (TX), Angelo State University, Tarleton State University, Abilene Christian University, Texas Woman's University (non-football), UT- Dallas (non-football), Metro State (CO) (non-football), UC - Colorado Springs (non-football), Oral Roberts (non-football)

The football 7 are the almost all of the better football programs in the Div II LSC. Most of them dream of getting to or back to a point where they could at least play FCS football. All have well attended games that would work at that level but lack the TV market to make any BB TV revenue. I think they will eventually wise up and upgrade stealing some good BB only schools in larger markets to make it all work. Keeping the footprint small, it could work. They could set their football scholarship cap at 30 full scholarships and still compete in FCS as they'd be using Texans. UTD and TWU would help in Dallas. MS and UCCS would deliver Denver and Colorado Springs TV relevance in BB. Oral Roberts fits the panhandle/religious culture flavor in this conference and would help a lot in Tulsa.

=================================================================================
Other IAAA conferences
=================================================================================

Big East: (10)
----------
Depaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Dayton, Duquesne

The Big East doesn't care so much about long term rivalries with WV and Pitt as much as they do UCONN and Syracuse. Cinnci and Louisville are really nice, but replaceable. Ultimately the BE BB schools will break away for stability. Xavier and Dayton bridge both sides. Duquesne replaces Pitt as a Pittsburg presence.

A10: (14)
----------
Fordham, George Washington, Lasalle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Joesephs, Detroit, Boston U, Vermont, Northeastern, Siena, Fairfeild, Hofstra, William & Mary

The A10 would might add Detroit, but I think in general they'd stay with respected eastern Privates in good markets and maybe an academic flagship with no football dreams like Vermont. I could see MAAC BB attendance champ Siena and runner up Fairfeild. Siena helps in upstate NY. Fairfeild is in the NYC DMA and Connecticut. Hofstra is another solid BB school in NYC. William & Mary is likely too small to have FBS dreams, but would be a great academic and esteem addition. Again stability, good markets, and a reasonable footprint is the name of the game.

I could also see a raid or merger with the Patroit league. Every one of those schools are High falutin' universities just a notch or two below Ivy and would be feathers in any conference hat. The fact that they give scholarships but draw the line at football scholarships would probably make them quite attractive to the A10 Privates. Add the fact that Army and Navy, two AFC schools are in the mix and it might be irresistable. IMO depends what happens with the Ivy.

University Athletic Association: (10)
---------------------------------------
Brandeis University, Carnegie Mellon, Case Western Reserve University, Emory University, New York University, University of Chicago, University of Rochester, Washington University in St. Louis, Johns Hopkins University, MIT

None of the former nerdy nine wants to give scholarships for athletics, but I think eventually the business reality will hit for both them and the Ivy League. The NCAA may put the screws to Ivy league football insisting they play at the Div II level to prevent conferences like the LSC from moving up. I think what might come out is the traditional academic elites might start giving non-football scholarships to compete with UT and Stanford in the Olympic sports. Basketball might be as far as they are willing to go with money sports. Johns Hopkins COULD return. I think MIT would get in. I think the nerdy 9 and the Ivy league would mostly play the Patriot league and each other. Freakin' snobs.

Ivy League: (8)
---------------
eh... them. I could see Div II Football and IAAA other sports.

Chicagoland conference: (8)
------------------------------------
Denver, Bradley, Creighton, Drake, Evansville, Butler, Loyola Chicago,Valpo

A BB conference created from the ashes of the MVC. Lack of an automatic bid cost them some potential members, but it was still a very salty conference.

Horizon/Summit: (12)
----------------------
Cleveland State, Wisc Green Bay, Wisc Milwaukee, UIC, Wright State, SIU -Edwardsville, IUPUI, IUPUFW, UMKC, UMSTL, Oakland University, Chicago State

Birthed from the wreckage of the Horizon and Summit leagues (and a few Div 2 upgrades) and fueled by large alumni bases in major markets, the Horizon/Summit is one of the leading Mid-majors of 2025.

CUNYAC: (10)
-----------------
Baruch College, Brooklyn College, City College of New York, College of Staten Island, Hunter College, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Lehman College, Medgar Evers College, New York City College of Technology, York College

If ever a conference screamed IAAA it is the CUNYAC. Consider these are blue collar schools with a combined enrollment of 124K. These grads are for the most part staying in the city, so how relevant would this be to NY City viewers???? There has to be over 2M alumni in the NYC DMA. Basketball talent hotbed where a number of players have trouble getting into the better schools. Basketball games a subway ride away in a market bigger than most conferences' market TOTAL? Fegedaboutit!


I'm done.


Last edited by finiteman on Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 2:59 pm 
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I'll take a stab. What I will end up with is not necesarily the most perfect creation (as though we started with a clean sheet of paper), but what perhaps the current situation could evolve into, based on plausible moves that involve schools up-grading their situation.

SEC - no change
East - Fla, Ga, SC, Tenn, Vandy, KY
West - Ala, Aub, Ole Miss, Miss St., LSU, Ark

ACC - no change
Atlantic - BC, Md, NC St., Wake, Clemson, FSU
Coastal - Va, VaTech, UNC, Duke, GaTech, Miami

BE - splits and expands
North - UConn, Syr, Rutgers, Temple, Pitt, WVU (after Temple has regained respectability)
South - Cincy, Louisville, Memphis , ECU, UCF, USF

Big Ten - Notre Dame passed on invitation to join BE football, yet $$$ look better with Big Ten Network established vs. dwindling contract with NBC, and Notre Dame lapsing from "special" to "better than average" status.
East - PSU, OSU, Ind, Purdue, ND, Northwestern
West - Michigan, MSU, Ill, Min, Wis, Iowa (maybe switch Illinois and Northwestern...)

Big XII - no change
North - Iowa St., Mizzou, Neb, Colo, KU, K St.
South - OU, OSU, Texas, T A&M, T Tech, Baylor

Pac - expands to 12
North - WU, WSU, OU, OSU, Cal, Stan
South - USC, UCLA, ASU, AU, Utah, BYU

MWC - expands to 12
West - Hawaii, SD St., Fresno St, UNLV, Utah, St., Boise St.,
Mountain - Wyoming, CSU, AFA, NM, UTEP, TCU

CUSA teams leave to form new Southwest Conference, expand with other schools
North - Tulsa, SMU, North Texas, UTSA, Texas State, Ark. St.
South - Rice, Houston, Tulane, LaTech, S. Miss, UAB

SunBelt - remaining teams ditch non-football Denver, UALR, and UNO, and expand to all-sports with FCS upgrades...
West - Western KY, Mid-Tenn, La-La, La-Monroe, Troy, Jack. St.
East - FAU, FIU, USA, Ga. Southern, Ga. St., App. St.

MAC - No change - 13 (partial) member Temple leaves for BE (above), leaving 12
Long term I see them as the natural home for Youngstown St. (FCS upgrade), and Marshall.

WAC - decimated,
SJ St., Nevada-Reno, Idaho, NM St. (whatever 4 schools that didn't get invited into MWC) get into discussion with the Big Sky. They merge, and then debate whether to go FBS or FCS....
If they stay FCS, San Jose St. and Sacramento State look into Big West / Great West Football combination (like Cal-poly and UC Davis).
If Big Sky drops to 11, they invide Summit out-lier Southern Utah to join.

WCC eventually invites Seattle to join. Denver is a bit more "iffy".

If Southland loses schools, they may look at Houston Baptist, UTPA, Centenary, UNew Orleans, Oral Roberts, Ok CIty U.

Summit invites North Dakota, South Dakota.

If Younsgtown St. were to move from MVC football to FBS (say the MAC), look for MVC FB to invite North Dakota and South Dakota.

7 BE basketball schools - Providence, St. Johns, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, DePaul, Marquette invite 3 or 5 teams to go to 10- or 12-team new "Catholic Conference". They grab Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis from A-10, and possibly 2 other schools such as Holy Cross (Patriot) and Duquesne (A-10).

CAA lost Ga. State to Sun-Belt. Realigns with 5 Va. schools + UNC Wilmington in South, adds a northeastern team like Boston University. If, say, UNC Wilmington were to bolt to the SoCon (which lost App. St. and Georgia Southern), CAA could re-align with 5 Va. schools and Towson in South, and then perhaps invite football members UMass and URI to join (leaving the rather weakened A-10). CAA could also invite UNC Charlotte (A-10) to replace Ga. State, as this would provide a travel partner for UNC - Charlotte is also seriously pursuing football, although their aspirations may be FBS...

Enough speculation. It would seem that the next move in the cascade will be the BE split, Big Ten expansion to 12 (if Notre Dame, no de-stabilization; if a BE or Big XII team, the dominoes stat to fall). The PAC-10 is very stable at present, and is only going to feel pressure to expand if the other BCS conferences think it is unfair for them to stay at 10 members.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 9:13 pm 
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It's hard to say at this point because we have no idea what kind of framework is going to exist when the moratorium currently in place ends in 2011, which will have a great deal to do with who moves up and when.

IMO you have three possible outcomes:

1. The NCAA stands pat and imposes no new criteria for moving up.

This will result in a wave of DII schools moving up for a shot at the basketball money, mostly playing FCS football at either the non-schollie level, or reduced scholarships. This is looked at as further watering down the FCS level, so schools like Jacksonville State, Texas State, and Georgia Southern that are already doing feasibility studies go ahead and make the move. It also makes schools like Appalachian State, James Madison, Delaware, Montana, etc. look long and hard at making the move in order to not be lumped together with these new from DII schools. I could see as many as 10-15 FCS programs make the move up under these circumstances, to varying levels of success. That large of an amount of schools moving up would result in a minimum the creation of a new conference, and likely a realignment of some of the non-autobid conferences as well.
This would also likely be the nail in the coffin of DII.

2. The NCAA imposes strict criteria for programs to change divisions/subdivisions

Possibly one or two programs would move up, like Georgia Southern and Texas State, both likely bound for the Sun Belt. Other than that things will pretty much stay put.

3. The NCAA imposes strict criteria for changing divisions, but keeps the current standards for changing subdivisions (like from FCS to FBS)
See above.


The key is not going to be what the NCAA does as far as changing subdivisions, it's going to be what they do to stem the flood of DII schools moving up to get a shot at March Madness money.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:23 pm 
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Here's another scenario to chew on ;D:

Pacific West ‘Eastern’ Division: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma

Pacific West ‘Coastal’ Division: California, Stanford, UCLA, Southern Cal, Washington,
Oregon

Northern 12 South: Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers
Northern 12 North: Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Cross-Divisional Games: Michigan-Ohio State

The Heartland Conference: Utah, Brigham Young, Wyoming, Colorado State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nebraska, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma State

Southeastern Conference South: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Louisiana State, Florida State, South Florida
Southeastern Conference North: Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri

Cross-Divisional Games: Tennessee-Florida

Southern Ivies: Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (Florida), Boston College, Maryland, Syracuse, Vanderbilt
Non-football Member: Notre Dame

Atlantic Coast Conference: Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Connecticut, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati, Clemson, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Conference USA West: Texas Christian, Tulsa, Southern Methodist, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech
Non football members: Rice
Conference USA East: Central Florida, Alabama-Birmingham, Southern Miss, Tulane, Mississippi, Mississippi State,
Non football members: Saint Louis

Non-BCS conferences:

The Yankee Conference: James Madison, Old Dominion, Georgia State, Delaware, UNC-Charlotte, UMASS, Temple, SUNY-Buffalo, Eastern Carolina
Non Football Members: George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, SUNY-Stony Brook

The WAC North: Montana, Montana State, Utah State, Idaho, Oregon State, Washington State,
The WAC South: San Jose State, Fresno State, Nevada-Reno, Hawaii, UNLV, San Diego State

The Lone Star Conference: Texas-San Antonio, Sam Houston State, Lamar, Texas State-San Marcos, McNeese State, North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech
Non-football membership: Texas-Arlington

The Sun Belt: Florida International, Florida Atlantic, Troy, South Alabama, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Florida A&M, Tennessee State, North Carolina A&T

Mid-American Conference:
MAC East: Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio), Akron, Toledo, Ohio, Marshall
Non-football: Kent State
MAC West: Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State
Non-football: UW-Milwaukee


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 6:44 pm 
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Pacific Twelve (BCS autobid)

Red - USC, Utah, Stanford, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State
Blue - UCLA, BYU, California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona

The growth in Utah becomes too hard to ignore for the Pac 10-who even agrees to accomodate BYU's scheduling issues, especially when getting a nice Saturday night primetime TV slot for final of the men's basketball tournament.

Mountain West (BCS autobid)
West - Boise State, UNLV, San Diego State, Utah State, Fresno State, Hawaii
East - Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State, TCU, UTEP, Baylor

The Big XII sets the bar too high for Baylor, who joins fellow private TCU in the Mountain West. The BCS reassures the Mountain West that it keeps its autobid after losing Utah and BYU.

Big XII (BCS autobid)
North - Missouri State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Colorado
South - Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, New Mexico

WAC
Pacific - San Jose State, Idaho, Sacramento State, UC-Davis, Nevada, Portland State
Mountain - New Mexico State, Montana, Montana State, Northern Colorado, Northern Arizona, Southern Utah

The WAC raids the Big Sky, including several schools who were already members in several minor sports. The Montana schools feel forced to move up as they watch the Big Sky burn down around them.

Big Ten (BCS autobid)
West - Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East - Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State

Missouri gets the twelfth spot after Rutgers and Notre Dame reject the Big Ten.

Big East (BCS autobid)
South - Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virgina, South Florida, Central Florida, Memphis
North - Connecticut, Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

Notre Dame joins after the Big East negotiates a huge contract with NBC for football-Notre Dame gets 6-8 'home' games on NBC each year, and the conference as a whole gets 18 games in 14 weeks. Boston College's membership was conditional on Notre Dame joining, and made easier by the new TV contract. The Big East also gets six games a year on MSNBC.

ACC (BCS autobid)
North - UMass, Maryland, Virgina, Virgina Tech, Duke, UNC
South - Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Florida State

UMass jumps out of the newly FBS CAA into the BCS.

CAA
North - Temple, Marshall, Stony Brook, Delaware, Buffalo, James Madison
South - Charlotte, East Carolina, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Old Dominion

Marshall and East Carolina eventually cede the remnants of Conference USA to their western brethern. Temple, Charlotte, and UMass (now in the ACC) came from the "cross-pollination" of the Atlantic 10 and CAA.

Conference USA
West - Houston, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, UTSA, Wichita State
East - Louisiana Tech, Tulane, Southern Miss, UAB, Illinois State, Southern Illinois

C-USA leaves the Missouri Valley Conference as a shell of its former self.

Sun Belt
West - Texas State, North Texas, Lamar, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State
East - Troy, South Alabama, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, MTSU

SEC (BCS autobid)
West - LSU, Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State
East - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

MAC
West - Northern Illinois, Ball State, Miami-OH, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan
East - Bowling Green, Toledo, Ohio, Kent, Akron, Buffalo

================== FCS ====================

Big Sky
Northwest - Western Washington, Central Washington, Eastern Washington, Idaho State, Western Oregon, Seattle (non-football)
Southwest - Weber State, Utah Valley, Cal Poly SLO, San Francisco State, Western Colorado, Denver (non-football)

The Big Sky becomes the default landing point for Division II upgrades. Western Colorado was formerly known as Western State. Utah Valley and San Francisco State are newer football programs.

North Central Conference
Northwest - North Dakota, NDSU, South Dakota, SDSU, Minnesota State(-Mankato), St. Cloud State
Midwest - UMKC (non-football), Oral Roberts (non-football), Bellarmine (non-football), IUPUI (non-football), IPFW (non-football), Oakland (non-football)

The former Summit League adopts the name under which most of its current members competed, and hangs on to its automatic bid for the basketball tournament by the slimmest of margins.

Missouri Valley Conference
Creighton (non-football), Drake, Northern Iowa, St. Louis (non-football), Evansville (non-football), Indiana State, Bradley (non-football), Butler, Valparaiso, Illinois-Chicago (non-football)

Southern
West - Samford, Jacksonville State, Chattanooga, Kennesaw State, Furman, Wofford
East - Elon, UNC Greensboro, Davidson, The Citadel, College of Charleston, Western Carolina

Ohio Valley Conference
North - SE Missouri State, Murray State, Western Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Eastern Kentucky, Morehead State
South - North Alabama, ETSU, Austin Peay, TN State, TN Tech, TN-Martin

SIU-Edwardsville leaves for the gutted Horizon League, which allows the OVC to have all 12 of its members playing football in the conference.

Southland Conference
West - TX-Pan American, TX-Arlington (non-football), TX A&M-Corpus Christi, Centenary (non-football), SFA State, Sam Houston State
East - Central Arkanas, McNeese State, Nicholls State, Northwestern State, UALR, New Orleans (non-football)

UTPA and UALR accepted conditional invites to the Southland on the basis they start football programs.

I'll continue FCS later.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:12 pm 
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wbyeager, not bad! Some unusual elements though. Missouri to the Big 10 and Missouri State ending up in the Big 12? Not sure that would be pulled off, even by 2025.
The CAA looks interesting, but not sure about Charlotte & GA State. Still, pretty good groupings.


Last edited by sec03 on Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:24 am 
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thelurker wrote:
Here's another scenario to chew on ;D:

Pacific West ‘Eastern’ Division: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma

Pacific West ‘Coastal’ Division: California, Stanford, UCLA, Southern Cal, Washington,
Oregon

Northern 12 South: Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers
Northern 12 North: Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin


Your Pac 10 idea (dropping Ore St and WasSU to open slots for OU and A&M) is certainly intersting, but I think there would be too much of a battle from the Pac side (Washington and Oregon) and the Texas Side (Baylor and Tech) to happen.

The Big 10 going with Rutgers is certainly possible, though.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:21 pm 
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I'm behind the eight ball on expansion rumors in 2011 & 2018? Are there articles or blogs with info on this? I've been very interested in this since the early 90's.

Georgia and Clemson had a great rivalry and before the SEC expanded I really wanted Clemson, FSU and Ga Tech brought into the SEC. I was really disappointed in who they did take but was hopeful that Texas and Tex A&M would soon follow Arkansas.

I thougt the ACC expansion would have been better had they just merged with the Big East.
ESPN would have been all over that, in fact I believe had that happened the college landscape would be much different.

If you are on this site I've got to believe you love college fooball. With that said here is my rant

Big 10 & PAC 10 quit holding up what could be the most watched compelling sports event this side of the Super Bowl. Improve the competive balance in your conferences or should I say to the existing conference members step up to plate. The MAC gives Ohio St better games than you and even a 1AA team shows Michigan can be beat by someone other than Ohio St. PAC 10 I love your offenses but USC plays defense too. Thats why they rule the roost. USC has to sleepwalk in a game to lose to you guys. Don't get me wrong I think USC would win every other conference most every year except in the SEC and they would just have to take turns.
I think Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio St, & Mich would be in the mix every year with an SEC schedule.

Rose Bowl do you have to have a Big 10 beatdown every year. Can you challenge your PAC 10 teams with a more deserving opponent if that is the case in any given year? USC vs Georgia last year. You hurt the game. Fans deserve better. You are the showcase game and it wasn't always the Big 10 vs PAC 10 for you so called traditionalist.

Big 10 you were the last conference to have a basketball tournament, grow some and have a true conference champion. At least the PAC 10 plays everyone in their conference, and has a true conference champion.

Big East you know the ones who play football & basketball beg some conference to take you in or steal your old teams back.






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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:43 am 
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Getting back to my previous post on the Big East your old teams are being dominate in the ACC seek a merger with the ACC and divide up into your old conference divisions. Truth be told tradionalist would probably like this better than the current setup in the ACC as is.

Big 12 change your divisions up or change your schedule, Nebraska should play Oklahoma every year have a permanent opponent for each team such as the SEC does. If Texas is as powerful as others have mentioned here why did the swc dissolve and why doesn't the Big 12 have the kind of television package the SEC does.

SEC quit playing these Sunbelt, Conf USA want to be's and either schedule more conference games or home and home with other bcs conferences. The same can be said for the Big 10 and their MAC opponents as well as the ACC and their 1aa teams.

NCAA you set the guidelines for conference playoffs at 12 and yet some conferences don't play a conference championship game or play all of their conference members. How can you have a legitimate champion in any league that does this?

Notre Dame please join the Big 10 and get the ball rolling on conference realignment

SEC stands pat until Notre Dame joins Big 10 they then go after Texas Tex A&M Okla & Tex Tech

Pac 10 goes after Colorado and Utah

Big 10 counters with Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa St

acc and big east merge

wac and mwc merge

conf usa splits into east and west each adding sunbelt teams









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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:54 am 
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So:
the SEC is 16,
the Big 10 is 16
the BE / ACC is 20 FB schools
the PAC is 12
the WAC / MWC is 17 (they lost Utah) - BTW - seems like they all used to be a 16-team WAC....
and CUSA is 12 (room to add 2-4 others).

Lets have PAC take 4 more from the WAC/MWC to go to 16:
Nevada, UNLV, BYU, and New Mexico.

WAC/MWC is now 13, loses LaTech to C-USA to go to 12. They can go to 16 by adding 4 western D-1-FCS schools (Big Sky or Great West/Big West).

When the Big10 and SEC carved up the Big 12, they left Baylor, Kansas State, Ok. State, and Colorado alone... You have Colorado to the PAC, I suggest Baylor, KState, Ok State and LaTech (from WAC) to the CUSA to give them 16.

MAC is 13 counting Temple, Sun-Belt will have 10 FB teams after South Alabama gets going.
They each have room to add eastern / south-eastern move-ups from D-1-FCS.

So now you have 4 power conferences:
PAC-16, Big(16), ACC/BE, and SEC,
and 4 second-tier conferences:
WAC/MWC, CUSA, MAC, and Sun-Belt.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:45 am 
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First off, I think the NCAA by 2025 will realign into 2 segments by eliminating the current Division II. Most of this group will move up to Division I, the rest will go to the NEW Division II(Current Division III) or to the NAIA. Some D-III members will move up to Divsion I, others will go NAIA, whilst some NAIA schools will join Division I. Canadian schools will also be welcomed into NCAA membership. With all of this accomplished, the NCAA renames Division I the University Division and Division II-III the College Division(just like pre-1973).

So how will the conferences shake out, well look at what I was able to come up with:

University Division-FBS

Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division:
Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, West Virginia
Coastal Division:
Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami(FL), North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Atlantic-12
Eastern Division:
Buffalo, Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Stony Brook, Temple
Western Division:
Charlotte, Dayton, James Madison, Miami(OH), Ohio, Old Dominion

Big East
Eastern Division:
Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Villanova
Western Division:
Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Notre Dame, South Florida

Big Ten
Eastern Division:
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
Western Division:
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Big 12
Northern Division:
Colorado, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska
Southern Division:
Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Heritage(HBCU League)
Eastern Division:
Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M, Hampton, Howard, North Carolina A&T, South Carolina State
Western Division:
Alabama A&M, Grambling, Jackson State, Southern, Tennessee State, Texas Southern

Ivy League
Northern Division:
Brown, Dartmouth, Harvard, McGill, Toronto, Yale
Southern Division:
Army, Columbia, Cornell, Navy, Pennsylvania, Princeton

Mid-American
Eastern Division:
Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State, Marshall, Toledo, Youngstown State
Western Division:
Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan

Missouri Valley
Northern Division:
Drake, Illinois State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Wichita State
Southern Division:
Arkansas State, Central Arkansas, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri State, North Texas

Pacific-12
Northern Division:
Brigham Young, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington, Washington State
Southern Division:
Arizona, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Southern California, Stanford

Southeastern
Eastern Division:
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western Division:
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Southwest
Eastern Division:
Houston, Lamar, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa
Western Division:
New Mexico State, Southern Methodist, UTEP, UTSA, Texas Christian, Texas State

Sun Belt
Eastern Division:
Appalachian State, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
Western Division:
UAB, Middle Tennessee, New Orleans, South Alabama, Southern Mississippi, Troy

Western Mountain
Eastern Division:
Air Force, Boise State, Montana, New Mexico, Utah State, Wyoming
Western Division:
Fresno State, Hawai'i, Nevada, UNLV, San Diego State, San Jose State

University Division-FCS

America East
Eastern Division:
Bryant, Central Connecticut State, Maine, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Sacred Heart
Western Division:
Albany, Hofstra, Monmouth, Robert Morris, St. Francis(PA), Wagner

Big Sky
Mountain Division:
Idaho State, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado, Southern Utah, Weber State
Pacific Division:
UC Davis, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Idaho, Portland State, Sacramento State

Big South: Carson-Newman, Charleston Southern, Christopher Newman, Coastal Carolina, Gardner-Webb, Georgetown(KY)(football only), Jacksonville, UNC Pembroke, VMI

Great Lakes: Butler(football only), Central State(OH), Duquesne(football only), Ferris State, Grand Valley State, Indiana(PA), Mount Union, Saginaw Valley State, Valparaiso, Wittenberg

Great Northwest: Azusa Pacific(football only), British Columbia, Carroll(MT), Central Washington, Dixie State, Linfield, Montana State-Billings, Pacific Lutheran, San Diego(football only), Simon Fraser, Western Oregon, Western Washington

Heartland
Eastern Division:
Central Missouri, Illinois Wesleyan, Lindenwood, Missouri Southern, Missouri Western, NW Missouri State
Western Division:
Central Oklahoma, Emporia State, Fort Hays State, Pittsburg State, Southern Nazarene, Washburn

Mid-Eastern: Delaware State, Morgan State, Norfolk State, North Carolina Central, Savannah State, Shaw, Virginia Union, Winston-Salem State

Minnsconsin: Augsburg, Bethel(MN), Gustavus Adolphus, Hamline, Macalester, St. Mary's(MN)(no football), St. Olaf, Wisconsin-Parkside(no football), Wisconsin-River Falls, Wisconsin-Stout

North Central
Eastern Division:
Minnesota-Duluth, St. Cloud State, St. Thomas, Wisconsin-LaCrosse, Wisconsin-Oshkosh, Wisconsin-Whitewater
Western Division: Minnesota State-Mankato, Nebraska-Omaha, North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota, South Dakota State

Northern Sun:
Eastern Division:
Bemidji State, Concordia-St, Paul, St. John's(MN)/St. Benedict, Winona State, Wisconsin-Eau Claire, Wisconsin-Plateville, wisconsin-Stevens Point
Western Division:
Augustana, Mary, Minnesota State-Moorhead, Northern State, Sioux Falls, SW Minnesota State, Wayne State(NE)

Ohio Valley
Northern Division:
Eastern Illinois, Eastern Kentucky, Morehead State, Murray State, SE Missouri State, Western Illinois
Southern Division:
Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, North Alabama, Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee Tech, West Georgia

Patriot: Bucknell, Colgate, Fordham, Georgetown(football only), Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh, Richmond, Towson, William & Mary

Rocky Mountain: Black Hills State, Chadron State, Colorado State-Pueblo, Eastern New Mexico, Mesa State, Nebraska-Kearney, New Mexico Highlands, Western State

Southern: Chattanooga, The Citadel, Davidson, Elon, Furman, Liberty, Presbyterian, Samford, Western Carolina, Wofford

Southland
Central Division:
Delta State, Henderson State, McNeese State, Nicholls State, Northwestern State, SE Louisiana
Texas Division:
Abilene Christian, Midwestern State, Sam Houston Statem Stephen F. Austin, Texas A&M-Kingsville, West Texas A&M

SWAC: Alabama State, Alcorn State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kentucky State, Lane, Mississippi Valley State, Prairie View A&M, Tuskegee

University Athletic Association
All-Sport members: Brandeis, Carnegie Mellon, Case Reservee, Chicago, Emory, Johns Hopkins, Rochester, Washington-St. Louis
UAA Football League: Carnegie Mellon, Case Reserve, Catholic, Chicago, Iona, Johns Hopkins, Marist, Rowan, Washington-St. Louis

More to come, when I get to it.

_________________
Do you ahhhhh......realign?


Last edited by gophersrawk on Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

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