I wonder if the MWC could find a way to get into the BCS themselves. In another thread, I wondered if the MWC could maybe convince Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and maybe Texas Tech into the conference and maybe exchange a few teams with the WAC. I know it is only a slim to none possibility, but how does a core group like this sound for a BCS conference:
You could also potentially help replenish the WAC by moving teams like SD State or UNLV, IF that's what it takes to get the MWC in the BCS (the MWC could help the WAC with scheduling/bowl contracting in some sort of agreement). Any thoughts?
Sort of a really old MWC, eh?
I think that would be a neat deal, but I don't think you will see anything come down the line that will force teams out of conferences like the big 10 or Pac 10. Those conferences don't really have members they want to force out/or replace. A newer conference like the Big 12, that is somewhat disfunctional anyway, might be forced to "take the hit" for the BCS schools to get schools like BYU and Utah in to avoid any lawsuit, but it is likely any scenario would have to be signed off on by Texas, so I cannot see Colorado (denver market) or Tech (rival) not staying with UT.
I cannot see the BCS schools going along with admission of an 8 or 9 school conference as it would make that conference's per member share 17M BCS payout worth more than a a member share in the ACC, Big 12, or SEC. If they were forced into admitting a conference with BYU and Colorado, I'd have to think it would be at least a 12 and maybe a 14 member conference sor the per school schare would be small.
Additonally, I think while schools like BYU, Utah, and maybe TCU might be looked at favorably as potential BCS members, I think schools like CSU, UNM, Air Force might be merely seen as "tolerable" and schools like UNLV, Wyoming, and San Diego State would be seen as substandard candidates, which to me suggests the resulting conference would need to be a CUSA/MWC hybrid with a possible WAC member or two. (This is also the answer to your question, Panther... IMO.)
(Every school in the MWC outside of Utah, TCU, and BYU has noteworthy positives that might make them attractive as BCS candidates and noteworthy negatives as well.)
So assuming no Big 12 Cherry picking...
I think if there is pressure to add Utah and BYU to the BCS (and invariably add another conference to make that happen) It could lead to Memphis getting into the BE.
I eliminated Air Force from the equation because it keeps Army and Navy at the same level. I could also see Air Force in and Army and Navy becoming football only members of the BE.