I first start hearing rumors about a new I-A Southwest Conference about 2 years ago. I thought it was an interesting Idea given all the schools wanting to move up. However lately I am hearing more talk. Anyone with an rumors? I hear UTSA, UTEP, and New Mexico st will be members.

Something like that COULD evolve. The heart of it would be the C-USA West (Tulsa, SMU, Rice, Houston, UTEP, Tulane). Then add North Texas, Arkansas State, maybe another La school from the SUn-Belt, and add La Tech and NM State from the WAC. Fill it out with some move-ups from the Southland (Texas State-San Marcos and others).

There are forces that would work for this and against this.

For: C-USA may not be that stable long term. Look at it geographically, and East Carolina and Marshall are rather isolated. They might prefer to be with a bunch of schools located in the southeast / mid-Atlantic, but EAST of the Mississippi. With a significant geographic overlap between the Sun-Belt and C-USA, there may be a drive for:
the eastern schools of each to get together and add move-ups from the SoCon / CAA / A-10 (Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and UNC-Charlotte /Georgia State (after the latter two start football)), and
the western schools of each to get together and add move-ups from the SLC.

AGAIUNST: No move-ups are possible from the FCS while the moratorium is in effect.
And there WILL be politics among the Texas schools about who is in / out. TCU bolted to the MWC when C-USA added SMU (they didn't want to be on the same level while recruiting and trying to establish themselves as THE Dallas-Fort Worth team. So TCU bolted for the MWC, thinking that perhaps the MWC was on the verge of becoming a BCS conference.
UTEP and New Mexico State are neighbors (El Paso and Las Cruces (?)), yet I'm not sure that UTEP wouldn't want to disclude NMSt. to preserve a recruiting advantage.
And there are myriad other situations like this of a political nature that could sabotage this multi-faceted marriage.

Never, NEVER underestimate the silliness of petty politics undermining things of much greater significance.

CUSA is very unstable. Nobody in CUSA is happy at the sametime everyone is afraid of the unknown. The moratorium was put in place to stop the flood of teams from moving up during the break up. We are looking at a big train wreck coming. TCU wants into the Big 12. The Big 12 would love to trade away Baylor for TCU. Memphis and UAB wants to join Cincinnati and Lousiville. ECU and Marsh wants out. Florida will try to start a Florida conference...including UCF, Fla atl, Fla Int, with Troy joining that conference. Maybe USA too. CUSA and Sunbelt maybe force to merge. CUSA teams will be unhappy merging with the Sunbelt. Half of CUSA teams will leave for maybe the new Southwest conference. Crazy crazy endless scenarios.

WAC too maybe ripped apart. MWC and PAC 10 could take a few WAC members. Where does that leave the remaining WAC members. Maybe WAC and Southwest conference merger before Southwest conference get started...lol. This realignment will make Katrina and Rita look like two sweet angels.

The WAC is in a VERY precarious position.
The MWC could grab 3 schools and gut the WAC in a heartbeat.
Why hasn't it happened ? Maybe the MWC is waiting for the PAC-10 to make the first move.
Depending on whether the PAC-10 expands with 2 MWC teams / which ones they take, it may dictate which 3-5 teams the MWC would expand with (Utah State might be of interest IF the PAC took BYU / Utah, for instance) .

I thought this was going to happen in 2003... I thought that with C-USA going to 12, that the MWC would follow suit.

When the musical chairs finally DO go into play, you don't want to be left in the WAC when the music stops, since there may only be 4 or so teams with you.

Boise State is putting out feelers (again), trying to garner an invite before they fade into mediocrity (which may or may not happen). The MWC put Fresno State on notice that they need to clean up their athletic dept. ethics, and dis-own Tarkanian. Hawaii would seem to only be attractive if they offer some travel subsidies. UTEP (from C-USA) is a decent fit geographically for the MWC, and might provide something of a bridge to TCU. Nevada has gotten some mention.

The others in the WAC could be left in the lurch... UTah State, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Idaho.... Louisiana Tech doesn't belong there anymore anyway. The only way I see the WAC being able to reconstitute itself is by moving up some FCS schools (Montanas, Sacramento State, maybe UC Davis...). There are no other FBS teams left in the West.

Everyone in the WAC had better be doing some long-term contingency planning and finding a soft place to land.

The posters on this topic offer some good points. Conferences changes will occur in the future, but may be more incremental and slower. A major conference, such as the ACC expansion, can set off a ripple impact. However, no current BCS conference is going to add "three" again unless some governance re-structuring happens, and the power hangs with the interests more or less wanting the status quo. Actions that could force a ripple effect:

1. Notre Dame joins a conference for football. Would directly impact the Big Ten and/or Big East. If the Big Ten, may nudge the Pac 10 to expand.
2. Big Ten decides to add #12, but it is not Notre Dame. Would probably seek another BCS school which could come from the Big 12 or the Big East. Familiar names are kicked about such as Missouri, Nebraska, or ISU in the west; or Rutgers, Syracuse, or Pitt in the east. I would dismiss at least half of those as being really serious if the scenario was serious.
3. The Big East splits or expands by one. If expands by one, maybe not much impact elsewhere. If by two to four, would create major changes to eastern-CUSA unless Navy and Army factor in somewhere.
4. CUSA wants to split on its own due to the distance factor and the western schools want to be a part of the resurrected and highly revised version of the old Southwest. This is plausible. Would certainly impact Sunbelt and WAC; perhaps others.
5. The MWC decides to expand up to twelve. This is a bit politically tricky since the MWC and WAC have sister institutions in New Mexico, Nevada, California, and Utah with Idaho concerns. Politics is a factor and inter-conference play involve both--they want to avoid the repercussions that resulted from the prior WAC breakup.
6. The WAC expanding on its own without major discontent elsewhere is not probable. The WAC failed, for example, to retrieve North Texas from the Sunbelt. The WAC lacks a geographic bridge to LA Tech which suggest LA Tech will be eventually leaving, or the WAC shall add a Texas (or nearby) school or two at some point.
7. The MAC, Sunbelt, service academies, make shifts among themselves. Not probable, and if so, may only involve schools on the edge of each.
8. The PAC 10 decides to add two as the first move. Could directly impact MWC and/or Big 12. A ripple effect would occur, mainly in the west.
9. The Big 12 decides to split with each division expanding. While there are periodic rumblings, doubt there would be any split or major upheaval unless a school like Texas or Nebraska bolted. But even for someone to bolt, they have to have somewhere to go, and only the Big 10 or PAC 10 would have a spot to absorb such if receptivity was realistic.
10. There is a current hold on 1-aa (championship division) types moving up. It the hold is lifted and scholarship limits unexpectedly moved in the direction to promote/allow expansion, then several schools would move up. But the interests are to minimize such happening, thus the hold. But such cannot be permanent, since higher education dynamics change.

The biggest constraint is the 6/5 rule for automatic bids to the NCAA basketball tournament-the Big 12 could split in half and still be in compliance; the WAC cannot.

For the sake of discussion, say the Big 10 finally adds a 12th school, and taps Rutgers. The Big East replaces them with Central Florida. Conference USA replaces Central Florida with Louisiana Tech (WAC down to 8 members).

The PAC 10 also decides to go to 12 members, and taps Utah (Mountain West) and Colorado (Big 12). The Big 12 replaces Colorado with Colorado State (Mountain West).

At this point the Mountain West is down to 7 members and jeopardizing their status as a Bowl Subdivision conference; the WAC is only doing slightly better at 8 members. If the WAC takes two Mountain West members, or the Mountain West takes two members, it's lights out for one of the two in both football and basketball. For the sake of discussion, let's say the Mountain West invites San Jose State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Boise State, and Nevada. The WAC dissolves with New Mexico State, Utah State, and Idaho joining the Big Sky in all sports except football and playing football as Bowl Subdivision Independents.

Big Sky (*football independent)
Eastern Washington, Portland State, Sacramento State, Northern Arizona, Utah State*, Weber State
Idaho*, Idaho State, Montana, Montana State, Northern Colorado, New Mexico State*

Conference USA
UTEP, Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Houston, SMU
Tulane, Southern Mississippi, UAB, Central Florida, Marshall, East Carolina

Mountain West
Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State
UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, Air Force, Wyoming, Texas Christian

Unless if the Big 12 or Conference USA splits in two, we're more likely to lose a conference than add one. Texas State will need to complete at least two years of its transition to the Bowl Subdivision as an independent (see Western Kentucky) before joining a conference.

For example, C-USA West (new Southwest Conference) and C-USA East part ways, and the Southwest Conference adds Louisiana Tech (WAC) and Texas State (upgrade), which allows everyone to stay afloat (WAC at 8, SWC at 8). The only real wildcard would be if the Conference USA remnant raids the Sun Belt or MAC.

Southwest (8) - Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice, Houston, UTEP, LTU, Texas State
Conference USA (8) - UAB, USM, Memphis, UCF, East Carolina, Marshall, ???, ???
WAC (8) - Hawaii, SJSU, Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State, Idaho, NMSU, Utah State

Southwest (8) - Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice, Houston, UTEP, LTU, Texas State
Conference USA (8) - UAB, USM, Memphis, UCF, East Carolina, Marshall, ???, ???
WAC (8) - Hawaii, SJSU, Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State, Idaho, NMSU, Utah State

Interesting....However I can't see Memphis, UCF, and ECU staying in the CUSA.
Texas st would fit better in the Sunbelt. UTSA fit better in Southwest conference.
However you juggle it, a conference either Sunbelt or CUSA might end.

If the Big East raids Conference USA, you can pretty much rule out a 6/6 split-the eastern strays (probably UAB and Southern Miss, possibly more depending on what happens) would have to stick with the Southwest remnant or go to the Sun Belt or MAC. In that case, the western half of Conference USA just changes the name to the Southwest Conference.

BTW, UTSA has announced their intentions to play as a I-AA independent and eventually move up to I-A, and Lamar may be getting ready to do the same, so that would bring the new Southwest Conference up to 10 schools.

Ok, here is a likely scenario...

Sunbelt
Western Kentucky ...joins MVC
South Alabama...joins the rumored NEW Fla conference
Florida Atlantic... " "
Fla. International..." "
Troy... " "

Denver
UAR
UNO joins non-football conference

remaining teams
ULL
UNT
ULM
Ark st
MTSU

CUSA
Memphis leaves
ECU leaves for Florida conference
Marshall leaves
UCF leaves for Florida conference
UH gets the big 12 call
UTEP...UH gone, UTEP goes west
UAB will follow Memphis
remaining teams
Rice
Tulsa
Tulane
SMU

New Southwest Conference
Rice
Tulsa
Tulane
SMU
Southern miss
ULL
UNT
ULM
Ark st
MTSU
UTSA
Lamar

Rice, Tulane,ULL, and Lamar would make this a baseball monster.

Correction...Move Southern Miss to Florida Conference, replace with La Tech.

Lamar football returns Fall 2010. UTSA football begins Fall 2010 upgrading to FBS in 2012.
No words if Lamar plans to go FBS after 2 years, my guess with Billy Tubbs as AD they will go FBS with UTSA.

Yeah, I also see TCU joining the Big 12, but Big 12 would say "you can join but only if you allow SMU to join as well" - in other words, SMU joins as a condition of TCU joining. After all, both schools are in the DFW area - where the Big 12 is HQ'ed.

UTSA, New Mexico st, UTEP.....La Tech and Lamar.

My preference is by far the 3 conference solution I proposed in the in the best interest of Texas thread as it lays out an easily visible path to athletic self sufficiency for every texas FBS caliber university's athletic department and academically rescue the independent universities from ill-conceived public/private Non-BCS purgatory.

But discounting that, let's talk simplicity. In one of the simplest paths, the western CUSA could break from the east and start up as SWC v. 2.

SWC v. 2.
Tulsa
Houston
Tulane
Rice
UTEP
SMU

The western CUSA schools have by far the better media markets and therefore have the better media money than existing CUSA and would be similar to the MWC in that regard. They also have the better acedemic schools with 4/6 being in tier 1 or 2. As embarrassing as their brand of football has been, this looks a LOT more BCS than CUSA.

So who could they add...

UNT could be added, but doesn't improve their lot. They take an academic (BCS) hit to add a school that is a second school in a market. There is the arguement that having them in conference would help SMU's attendance, but I don't know about that.

UTSA (and maybe even Texas State) have potential as future expansions as they give good virgin markets.

CUSA East members Memphis and S. Miss should quickly realize that CUSA west is healthier for them than CUSA east. UAB might realize that too. S. Alabama would as well. La. Tech, ULL, ULM, New Orleans would all want in and expect to be granted membership.

but logically, the best course of action for the breakaway CUSA West 6 is to look west to raid the MWC. ? what you say? Raid a higher tier conference? Isn't that counterintuitive? Usually, but maybe not in this instance. The MWC is bleeding. The MTN network is a flop of an idea. It generates money, but kills their exposure. If they bailed on the conference they could negotiate a deal that gives them money AND exposure.

the logical conference to emerge would be
SWC v. 2.
South division
Tulsa
Houston
Tulane
Rice
TCU
SMU

West division
Utah
BYU
CSU
AirForce
Wyoming
UTEP

That gives the conference the SLC, C. Springs, Denver, DFW, Houston, Tulsa, New Orleans, El Paso markets. That is fat TV revenue. It gives a championship game. It gives freedom from the mtn. network, and gives a very attractive academic conference with 9/12 teams being tier 2 (or equiv) or higher. That conference has a much better claim to BCS status than the Big East and could displace them.

Hurdles...
The greed of the MWC schools -- would they be willing to bear the expenses of killing their network and paying off slighted schools?
Ill-will on both sides -- the MWC schools have betrayed their potenital partners numerous times. Texans and Oklahomans have long memories.
The breaking of the gang of 5 -- I initally assumed UNM over Wyoming, but that may be incorrect. Wyoming is the #3 school in the denver market and delivers the various small markets in thier home state as well. It is a flagship like UNM and if push comes to shove they have the votes of BYU, Utah, CSU, and Air Force. That matters here. The gang of 5 rules here.
UTEP in UNM out --- funny how the worm turns. If the CUSA west 6 breakaway, UTEP has more value than UNM in being a "longtime member" for basketball purposes.
TCU and UTEP come home -- TCU would centrainly join the old SWC members division and UTEP would join the old WAC members in marriages of financial convenience.

I could potentially see an expansion to 14 with Memphis and UNM added if the conference did replace the big East as the 5th BCS conference, but not before then.

After acheiving BCS status, financially, Memphis and Albaqueque might make media packaging sense for the SWC2's media partners.

UTSA and Texas State might as well in delivering alumni numbers and creating the impression that the conference delivered all of Texas, not just native markets.

Lets talk variations on this.

This sceano is based on some simple ideas.

1) CUSA East is very unhappy about travelling to Texas. ECU is most vocal about it, but others share the sentiment.
2) CUSA West is throwing it's weight around as a voting block and evoking a texas/SWC type feel that is causing friction between the divisions.
3) CUSA West would eventually suceed as a block to have an automatic NCAA bid and enhance the chances of success of the 2 Houston Universities.
4) CUSA west would stay together to have at least the ability to block any anti-Texas school legislation in whatever conference they are in. These schools are tired of being pawns in other conferences.
5) Everything else aside, the main overriding goal of the privates is to get BCS inclusion.

Now lets talk about some other scenarios.

Let's say that the privates approarch the Gang of 5 about forming a new conference through the torn TCU.

TCU more than any other school is being killed by the MTN network. They have gone from national public coverage to no coverage. Their recruiting has fallen off the cliff in Texas. A softly suggested acknowledgement of the attractiveness of the Texas Privates would provide the Impetus for a change by advising they were considering bailing for a new private league. Losing TCU would be devastating for the MWC in BCS terms.

TCU could then Broker a deal with the gang of 5. TCU and the 4 privates + the gang of 5-Wyoming for scheduling purposes. The Gang of 5 would simply bail on the other MWC schools just like they did the WAC and start a new SWC with the privates.

BYU
UTAH
CSU
Air Force
Tulsa
TCU
SMU
Rice
Tulane
+ st. Louis (non-football)
+ Denver (non-football)

Problems with this scenario:
1) The CUSA schools have no automatic NCAA bid and neither do the MWC5. (something that COULD be fixed by not excluding Wyoming...). I don'
2) The Gang of 5 would have to turn on Wyoming. May not be something they are willing to do. Wyoming is a clearly not BCS caliber school who hurts the MWC in BCS discussion.
3) Game attendance at the CUSA privates is an issue that hurts the schools in the eyes of the BCS bowls. The loss of Houston would hurt Rice a bit.
4) A larger regional footprint than Tulane, BYU, and Utah might prefer.

Positive of this scenario:
1) This is almost certainly a conference of better quality than the Big East as judged by the other BCS conferences.
2) None of the schools clearly are not of BCS quality. All Schools are BCS caliber academically.
3) This conference could quickly turn into a BCS magnolia league.
4) sceduling is nice in a tight 9/11 team league.
5) Medai markets are very healthy.
6) Tulsa and St. Louis more than carry this conference BB tournament wise and would practically guarantee the conference at least 2 bids each year despite a potential of no-auto bid for a few years. Utah and BYU are also strong BB schools.

The WAC would inherit financial breathing room from the MWC's abandonment of UNLV and SD State. They would have to rejoin the WAC. Wyoming too would have no other viable FBS home.

The WAC drama would be fun to watch. A split to 12 teams would be desired by almost all, but it would put all of the financially healtheir teams in the West and all of the struggling teams int eh east with the disloyal and full of themseleves Boise State. Ah, Hijinks!

WAC

Western Division
Hawaii Warriors/Rainbow Wahines
San Diego State Aztecs
San José State Spartans
Fresno State Bulldogs
Nevada Wolf Pack
UNLV Rebels

Eastern
Boise State Broncos
Idaho Vandals
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs/Lady Techsters
New Mexico State Aggies
Utah State Aggies
Wyoming Cowboys

What might happen to CUSA?

In a financially defendable move, but a very petty one, the Easten Bloc might vote out UTEP and raid the SunBelt of it's larger (and healthier) schools.

East Carolina Pirates
UCF Knights
Florida Atlantic
Florida Internaional
Troy
Marshall Thundering Herd

Memphis Tigers
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
S. Alabama
UAB Blazers
UNT Eagles
Houston Cougars

This leaves CUSA with no BCS aspirations, but solid financial footing from TV deals. There would be uniformity of school type in the conference that would give long term financial health, but I personally don't like it because it kills the dream of Texas sports leadership and Texas universal financial health.

The Sunbelt would try to add UTEP (who would probably blocked by NMstate (?) from readmission to the WAC???) and UNM (who might be resistant to join a conference with NM state and would be a 13th member of the WAC) but would be on fumes until they could add UTSA and Texas State and maybe a few of the larger southland schools. UTEP & UNM joining and financail pressure from the top of the university might be enough to get La Tech to consider rejoining, something they have feircely resisted in spite of extreme financial hardships. All 3 schools may accept the alignment as a temporary situation until 5-7 years later they could break away with Texas State, UTSA, and say UTA (6/5 rule)and start a public SWC stealing away Houston and UNT and possibly even Utah and CSU if the BCS rules have changed by then.

Sunbelt
W. kentucky
New Orleans (IAAA)
M. Tennessee
UL- Monroe
UL-Lafayette
Arkansas State
UALR (IAAA)
UTEP
La Tech
UTSA
UTA (IAAA)
SE Louisiana (IAA--would need stadium upgrade)
Texas State

2020 public SWC
UNM
UTEP
La Tech
UTSA
UTA (IAAA)
Texas State
UNT
Houston