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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 11:54 am 
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If UT, AM, OU leaves Big 12..
Big 12 replace them with BYU, Air Force, New Mexico.

Texas tech, Baylor leaves Big 12 because Big 12 foot print outside recruiting area. Big 12 replace them with Colorado st, Wyoming.

UNLV & San Diego joins PAC 10.

MWC no more...

TCU joins Tech and Baylor in Southwest conference
Every school market is over 300,000 in population except Texas tech and Baylor
Surely a tv deal for this conference.
I wouldn't be surprised if OK st replace Rice in this conference because they get their recruits from Texas.


UH 5.5 million
MEM 1.2 million
UAB 1.1 Million
UTSA 1.9 Million
UTEP 700K
UNT 6 million
LU 405K
Texas tech 261K
Baylor 226K
TULANE 1 million
TULSA 900K
RICE 5.5 millioin
TCU 6 million

18 MILLION
--------------------
new Big 12

Kansas
Kansas st
Missouri
Nebraska
Iowa st
Colorado
Colorado st
Air Force
BYU
Wyoming
New Mexico
Ok st






Last edited by playa4life on Wed Jan 16, 2008 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 12:10 pm 
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Take out the privates

UH 5.5 million
MEM 1.2 million
UAB 1.1 Million
UTSA 1.9 Million
UTEP 700K
UNT 6 million
LU 405K
Texas tech 261K
La Tech
La-Laf
Ok st
New Mexico st

18 MILLION
--------------------
new Big 12

Kansas
Kansas st
Missouri
Nebraska
Iowa st
Colorado
Colorado st
Boise st
Wyoming
New Mexico
Fresno st
Utah st



Last edited by playa4life on Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:37 pm 
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My reasoning...

If Memphis can't get in the Big East, Memphis needs to join Houston and other big Metro-schools.

Memphis
U-Houson
North Texas DFW area
UTSA San Antonio area
UTEP El paso area
UAB Birmingham area

These 6 schools represent 15 million people. However a conference needs more than 6 teams.
Why would ok st, Texas tech, and Baylor leave the Big 12?
If UT, AM, and OU leave the Big 12, the population base shift from Texas to the midwest.
Ok st, Texas tech, and Baylor would find it harder to recruit out of Texas. Those school would be in a position of having to choose between being in the Big 12 and lower quality of recruits or drop a conference level and keep the quality. Texas population is the fastest growing. Long term, the Southwest conference could surpass the big 12 in football.

Memphis
UH
UAB
UNT
UTSA
UTEP
Texas Tech
OK st
Baylor

3 schools would need to be added for 12.
La Tech Good program, bad :Small market
ULL Good program and mid-size market
Lamar Good sports program and mid-size market, bad: dropped football in 1989, returning in 2010.
New Mexico st Good program, bad: UTEP will keep them out.
Arkansas st...small market




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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:24 am 
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Memphis was told, and it has been published, that the major reason they have not been invited to join the BE is "distance"; not market, not academics, not sports quality---though all play a major role in determining an institution's attractiveness for a conference.

Part of giving conferences enhanced credibility, is that their associations reach beyond convenience, availability, and in the case of lesser ones, "catch-all" or "the best we can get".

Conference USA generally has fine schools; but its creation is largely of convenience and being stretched geography can compromise continuity, let alone contribute to added expense.

For UT, T A&M, and OU, to leave the Big 12, they need favorable and assured options. I doubt the contention is at such a level, and collectively, they could not garner a better arrangement than what they have now. While these schools have great revenue desires, they are not big risk-takers either.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:24 am 
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Then Memphis is being fed a bunch of bull. South Florida, DePaul, and Marquette is equally as far if not further.

The logical choice would be the SEC for UT, AM, and OU. The SEC would become a super conference making super money. The Big 12 is in a civil war, North vs South, the south
will leave thge union this time. The question is where will they go.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:28 am 
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Maybe something like this...
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Oklahoma st
Texas tech
Baylor
Houston
Memphis
UTSA
UTEP
UAB
TCU or UNT


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 12:09 pm 
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Posts: 556
Location: Dallas

Quote:
If UT, AM, OU leaves Big 12..
Big 12 replace them with BYU, Air Force, New Mexico.

Texas tech, Baylor leaves Big 12 because Big 12 foot print outside recruiting area. Big 12 replace them with Colorado st, Wyoming.

UNLV & San Diego joins PAC 10.

MWC no more...

TCU joins Tech and Baylor in Southwest conference
Every school market is over 300,000 in population except Texas tech and Baylor
Surely a tv deal for this conference.
I wouldn't be surprised if OK st replace Rice in this conference because they get their recruits from Texas.


UH 5.5 million
MEM 1.2 million
UAB 1.1 Million
UTSA 1.9 Million
UTEP 700K
UNT 6 million
LU 405K
Texas tech 261K
Baylor 226K
TULANE 1 million
TULSA 900K
RICE 5.5 millioin
TCU 6 million

18 MILLION
--------------------
new Big 12
Kansas
Kansas st
Missouri
Nebraska
Iowa st
Colorado
Colorado st
Air Force
BYU
Wyoming
New Mexico
Ok st




With no disrespect intended, I think there are a lot of problems with this. OU, TAMU, and UT aren't going to leave just to leave. If they leave they will have a better conference to join. I think joining the SEC is unlikely as they would not have space for 3 (I doubt they would got to 3 divisions as some creative thinkers have theorized they might if UT&TAMU came available.) Could they go to 14 or 16 with two 7 or 8 team divisions? That COULD be smart financially, but could also open the door for a future schism.

If those 3 schools leave and don't join the SEC, UT, TAMU, & OU would probably create their own conference with Arkansas and would likely invite Kansas, Missou, and Colorado at minimum, effectively killing the Big XII. All 3 schools would accept because financially it would kill them not to. Flagships. Maybe Utah. LSU would get an offer. Possibly UNM. Possibly Nebraska (may be some hard feelings though).

Assuming the schools bolt for the SEC, it is highly likely the SEC would also take Missou to bring in the St. Louis and KC markets.

The remaining Big XII schools would try to become Texas revelant again because that is where the money is. I could see them inviting TCU and Houston to get a toehold in both TV markets. TCU is higher profile than UNT or SMU and a better athletic school. Houston could draw a ton better in a higher profile conference and has an enourmous fan base in Houston and Rice is a little scarey in how small they are. They would raid the MWC for BYU and Utah as they are the most developed athletic programs in the MWC, are high profile, and are large schools with a virgin market for the Big XII. You would have to invite both though as they would only join as a pair.

Kansas
Kansas st
Nebraska
Iowa st
Colorado
BYU
Utah
TCU
Baylor
Houston
Ok st

This would be the best rebound I could see for Nebraska. This is clearly better than the Big East and the MWC and is definitely still BCS caliber, but is clearly a major step down from today's Big XII. The TV revenue would still be very strong, but the perception of the conference as a borderline first tier conference would be gone. They are definitely second tier at that point, but fighting the ACC for the crown as best of the rest due to their financial wealth.

The MWC would still be at 6 members and technically viable with good TV numbers but the BCS dream would be dead, so I think they would raid the WAC and put the WAC back on life support rather than merge with the WAC. I think you might see SD state take control of the conference and insist on the addition of SJ State and Fresno State (and eventually Sac State) for the markets they carry and because they are in the California State system and offer huge markets. Financially, it makes the most sense. it would make them the undisputed #2 conference in Cali.

UNLV would advocate for Reno. Wyoming might advocate for Montana, Idaho, NDSU, and SDSU, but Idaho's stadium would veto them and for the rest, the markets are not that large ranging between 260K TVs to ~450K. Boise State might feel the brunt of bitter feelings towards the two outgoing Utah schools as they were their advocates in the conference based on high mormon representation. Additionally, the Boise market is only 251K TVs. As this would be looking for a 9th & 10th member, they would require schools that would grow their shared Media payout pie, not just eat a piece.

UNM
CSU
Air Force
UNLV
SD State
Fresno State
SJ State
Wyoming
Sac State (eventually)

The WAC at this point is really screwed financially. the two Cal State schools deliver a huge chunk of their media relevance. I think they would need to beg schools like Portland State, UC-Davis, and the University of Northern Arizona to make the jump to give them the media market anchors they would despirately need. Adding non-football schools like Denver and UVU would really help a bunch. They would be receptive to "despiration offers" like Idaho state, NDSU, SDSU, UND, USD, Weber state in the short term to get back to 8 full members. Northern Colorado, UTSA and Texas State might be great long term adds, bridging La Tech and NMSU. And of course Montana. No WAC list is complete without them. File them in as despiration offers in a package deal with Montana State.

(Disclaimer: I LIKE all of the "despiration" schools I listed above.... as FUTURE FBS schools. I think their enrollment is still a little too small today to make it a smart move to jump at this time.)


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