Quote:
If UT, AM, OU leaves Big 12..
Big 12 replace them with BYU, Air Force, New Mexico.
Texas tech, Baylor leaves Big 12 because Big 12 foot print outside recruiting area. Big 12 replace them with Colorado st, Wyoming.
UNLV & San Diego joins PAC 10.
MWC no more...
TCU joins Tech and Baylor in Southwest conference
Every school market is over 300,000 in population except Texas tech and Baylor
Surely a tv deal for this conference.
I wouldn't be surprised if OK st replace Rice in this conference because they get their recruits from Texas.
UH 5.5 million
MEM 1.2 million
UAB 1.1 Million
UTSA 1.9 Million
UTEP 700K
UNT 6 million
LU 405K
Texas tech 261K
Baylor 226K
TULANE 1 million
TULSA 900K
RICE 5.5 millioin
TCU 6 million
18 MILLION
--------------------
new Big 12
Kansas
Kansas st
Missouri
Nebraska
Iowa st
Colorado
Colorado st
Air Force
BYU
Wyoming
New Mexico
Ok st
With no disrespect intended, I think there are a lot of problems with this. OU, TAMU, and UT aren't going to leave just to leave. If they leave they will have a better conference to join. I think joining the SEC is unlikely as they would not have space for 3 (I doubt they would got to 3 divisions as some creative thinkers have theorized they might if UT&TAMU came available.) Could they go to 14 or 16 with two 7 or 8 team divisions? That COULD be smart financially, but could also open the door for a future schism.
If those 3 schools leave and don't join the SEC, UT, TAMU, & OU would probably create their own conference with Arkansas and would likely invite Kansas, Missou, and Colorado at minimum, effectively killing the Big XII. All 3 schools would accept because financially it would kill them not to. Flagships. Maybe Utah. LSU would get an offer. Possibly UNM. Possibly Nebraska (may be some hard feelings though).
Assuming the schools bolt for the SEC, it is highly likely the SEC would also take Missou to bring in the St. Louis and KC markets.
The remaining Big XII schools would try to become Texas revelant again because that is where the money is. I could see them inviting TCU and Houston to get a toehold in both TV markets. TCU is higher profile than UNT or SMU and a better athletic school. Houston could draw a ton better in a higher profile conference and has an enourmous fan base in Houston and Rice is a little scarey in how small they are. They would raid the MWC for BYU and Utah as they are the most developed athletic programs in the MWC, are high profile, and are large schools with a virgin market for the Big XII. You would have to invite both though as they would only join as a pair.
Kansas
Kansas st
Nebraska
Iowa st
Colorado
BYU
Utah
TCU
Baylor
Houston
Ok st
This would be the best rebound I could see for Nebraska. This is clearly better than the Big East and the MWC and is definitely still BCS caliber, but is clearly a major step down from today's Big XII. The TV revenue would still be very strong, but the perception of the conference as a borderline first tier conference would be gone. They are definitely second tier at that point, but fighting the ACC for the crown as best of the rest due to their financial wealth.
The MWC would still be at 6 members and technically viable with good TV numbers but the BCS dream would be dead, so I think they would raid the WAC and put the WAC back on life support rather than merge with the WAC. I think you might see SD state take control of the conference and insist on the addition of SJ State and Fresno State (and eventually Sac State) for the markets they carry and because they are in the California State system and offer huge markets. Financially, it makes the most sense. it would make them the undisputed #2 conference in Cali.
UNLV would advocate for Reno. Wyoming might advocate for Montana, Idaho, NDSU, and SDSU, but Idaho's stadium would veto them and for the rest, the markets are not that large ranging between 260K TVs to ~450K. Boise State might feel the brunt of bitter feelings towards the two outgoing Utah schools as they were their advocates in the conference based on high mormon representation. Additionally, the Boise market is only 251K TVs. As this would be looking for a 9th & 10th member, they would require schools that would grow their shared Media payout pie, not just eat a piece.
UNM
CSU
Air Force
UNLV
SD State
Fresno State
SJ State
Wyoming
Sac State (eventually)
The WAC at this point is really screwed financially. the two Cal State schools deliver a huge chunk of their media relevance. I think they would need to beg schools like Portland State, UC-Davis, and the University of Northern Arizona to make the jump to give them the media market anchors they would despirately need. Adding non-football schools like Denver and UVU would really help a bunch. They would be receptive to "despiration offers" like Idaho state, NDSU, SDSU, UND, USD, Weber state in the short term to get back to 8 full members. Northern Colorado, UTSA and Texas State might be great long term adds, bridging La Tech and NMSU. And of course Montana. No WAC list is complete without them. File them in as despiration offers in a package deal with Montana State.
(Disclaimer: I LIKE all of the "despiration" schools I listed above.... as FUTURE FBS schools. I think their enrollment is still a little too small today to make it a smart move to jump at this time.)
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