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Here's something I've been thinking about for some time.
* Florida is projecting a SEC per school tv revenue increase of about $6.2 million for 2009-2010, putting each SEC school around $11 million in SEC television money for 2009-2010.
* Notre Dame will make approximately $12 million for 2009-2010
* The Big Ten schools will make an estimated $15 million per school + for 2009-2010
So my thoughts have been fairly basic: if you're a top school in the SEC or Big Ten, and you are dealing with so much money, when do you decide that it's a business and make the types of conference moves that would increase that?
For instance, in the SEC, there are schools like Florida, Georgia and Alabama that would likely command a higher per school share than say Vanderbilt or Mississippi St.
In the Big 12, Texas, Oklahoma, and even Nebraska that would command a higher price than Baylor, Kansas St, etc.
And in the Big Ten, Ohio St. and Michigan would command more than Northeastern or say, Minnesota.
So the question is, if TV contracts are really dictating much of the on-field issues now (SEC pays it's football assistants as much as many other FBS head coaches), would these top $$$ conferences make moves to cut the fat and actually go smaller when it would make sense? Or perhaps having lower revenue generating schools leave to be replaced with schools that would increase the overall school revenue.
For instance:
If the SEC were to drop from 12 schools to 8, they could possibly increase their per-school revenue.
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
LSU
Arkansas
Drop: Mississippi, MSU, Vanderbilt, South Carolina
They could remain at 8 schools and potentially increase their own revenue, or add schools that would increase the per-school payout.
Options: Florida St., Miami (Miami toyed with the idea of going independent with a Notre Dame like TV arrangement with Fox years ago while in the Big East still).
The Big 12 could do the same by pushing some members out:
Big 12:
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
Colorado
Drop: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Texas Tech
And the Big Ten, could do the same with a change:
Ohio St
Michigan
Michigan St
Illinois
Indiana
Penn st
Purdue
Wisconsin
This goes against the popular concept of expanding to add markets. But for some conferences, the SEC in particular, it's likely that the TV contract they would be offered with these 8 schools would be a similar total dollar figure to the current contract...but split only 8 ways instead of 12.
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