Honestly, I cannot see Duke leaving the ACC. The ACC is a stout academic conference already with the additional bonus of being a top athletic conference. For that same reason, I think that if Vandy should either opt out of the SEC or get kicked out (neither is an arguement I want to get sidetracked into right now) I believe they would quickly be gobbled up by the ACC to replace whatever school looked likely to bail to go to the SEC (----or possibly---although pretty unlikely---even the Big 10) instead of joining a conference like a southern privates conference. I just don't think they could walk away from the money to join a lesser acedemic conference than the ACC, but I won't totally discount any chance of Vandy being without a home if the ACC didn't lose a member.

I think the commisioner of CUSA sees a southern privates conference coming. I think it would a wise move by the southern privates. It will help those schools to recruit if they can brand themselves as a sw region's lesser Ivy league.

I think TCU screwed the plan up a bit with their refusal to hang with SMU, but I could see TCU coming back in a few years---especially if Baylor gets worked out of the Big XII. To me, that is the key. If Baylor get's worked out of the Big XII, the elements will be on hand for a CUSA split.

I think the commish goes with the privates. Baylor, SMU, Rice, Tulane, and Tulsa are 5 private universities in the same footprint with shared histories and in good media markets. Suppose they grab non-football playing University of Denver to fill the gaps in their conference schedule and bring in the denver market for basketball. Denver's not much of an athletic school, but they would join and would help fill out the conference in non-football sports. Denver's acedemics are solid, plus I think Denver has some good potential for growth in the right conference as a basketball school... If marketed right the conference might get a pretty decent TV package. They could add a well thought of basketball school like Creighton in as another non-football gap filler. If the TV package was starting to look pretty good, would St. Louis bite to be the Duke (basketball beast) of a conference with exclusively similar private schools and a better acedemic present and future than the Atlantic 10? I think they'd look at it.

If TCU got snubbed for the Big XII (likely IMO) and were seeing a decline in their acedemic program due to playing in a western conference, would they rejoin Baylor and the other four? Unlike others, I won't dismiss that, because eventually you have to think that the acedemics at TCU would pull that way and the athletic side of TCU might come around (if their athletics have a slow popularity and success bleed under the broadcast limitations that face western schools). I think they could be on the fence if things fell right (it would be much more of a likely scenario if they were still in CUSA though).

Now let's take this a step further. Supposing TCU was considering bolting for what was looking like a high profile acedemic conference. Would Air Force consider jumping ship as well? SUPPOSING ARMY and NAVY were offered football only memberships? Now I recognize that that is a lot of travel for Army and Navy, but they travel a lot as independents anyway and traveled a lot in CUSA. Plus, the idea of being in a snooty private acedemic conference rather than say the MAC would underscore the fact that these are top schools. That PR bump might make it attractive to those schools. Would Air Force join full time if Army and Navy were in the same conference? Would the military academies get into being part of a smaller conference if they were all playing for the same conference title? What would that do to the TV exposure?

Lets look at this.

Magnolia League
Baylor
Rice
SMU
TCU
Tulsa
Tulane
Creighton (non-football)
St. Louis (non-football)
Denver (non- football)
Air Force
Army (football only)
Navy (football only)

It has the dynamics to be a successful basketball conference, but really I think it would turn into a pretty decent football conference in little time. 6 of the schools are in the Texas, Oklahoma, and Lousiana talent hotbeds and the military schools would likely be able to take advantage of their discipline a bit more in this conference where depth of top talent would likely not be as heavy as in other conferences.

With 9 football playing members/8 conference games, Army and Navy could still have 3-4 games to play traditional regional rivals like Notre Dame. In addition, the level of competition (ie. the amount of money sunk into football programs in this conference) offers a more level playing feild for the military academies.

In terms of acedemic recognition, all of the schools would profit. In terms of basketball, the conference could have the same kind of growth potential that CUSA had being in good media markets and cities with a few basketball "name" schools in conference to draw fans and players to big city private schools. In terms of football, on opening the MWC and CUSA would be better, the WAC and sunbelt would be similar. Over time though, that would likely change as Baylor rebounded and the military schools adjusted.

Financially, with the smaller number of schools (9 football/ 10 basketball), the individual cuts would not be so watered down (ala the MWC).

There are a number of "if things fall right" scenarios that have to occur, but enough of it is on track that it really doesn't seem impossible.

Air Force
Army (football-only)
Baylor
Navy (football-only)
Rice
Southern Methodist
Texas Christian
Tulane
Tulsa
Vanderbilt

Eight-game conference schedule for football, annual opponents as listed...

Air Force (AFA): USMA, USNA, OK, VU
Army (USMA): AFA, USNA, OK, VU
Baylor (BU): RU, SMU, TCU, OK
Navy (USNA): AFA, USMA, LA, VU
Rice (RU): BU, SMU, TCU, LA
Southern Methodist (SMU): BU, RU, TCU, LA
Texas Christian (TCU): BU, RU, SMU, OK
Tulane (LA): USNA, RU, SMU, VU
Tulsa (OK): BU, TCU, OK, VU
Vanderbilt (VU): AFA, USMA, USNA, LA

Another thread got me thinking about what it would take to get the SEC to expand. The answer was that the SEC would only replace losses. Vandy is reported to have financial problems, and has actually stopped having a separate AD. If Vandy dropped football entirely, they could many of the women's sports and still be in Title IX compliance: Saving a LOT of money.

The question then becomes: Where would they go. Answer: Southern Ivy! In this case SIC would be made up of D1 BB schools that didn't play FB. Duke might consider joining if Title IX squeezes too much, and you might also include WF. Who else would want to start a new southern D1 BB conference? I believe that you would need 6 schools to get an automatic NCAA bid, and 8 would be better.

FBfan

With the premise that Vandy is downsizing and looking for others to join them for a Southern Ivy BB League, I gather the following based on College Prowler's Top 200 Academic Schools (but without stealing any current scholarship football schools): http://www.collegeprowler.com/guides_by_rankings.asp/1say:
Johns Hopkins (MD) #38
American University (DC) #42
George Washington (DC) #95
Washigton and Lee (VA) #15
William and Mary (VA) #29
Davidson (NC) #21
College of Charleston (SC) #161
Vanderbilt (TN) #31
Emory (GA) #36
Rollins (FL) #73

Well, that's the 10 best that I thought "fit". Not only would it be one of the smartest, most of these rank high on facilities and have decent basketball already in place.

Another possibility:
The Magnolia League (Magnolia Nine)
(SC) Charleston Southern
(SC) The Citadel
(SC) Furman
(SC) Wofford
(NC) Gardner-Webb
(NC) Davidson
(NC) Elon
(VA) Liberty
(VA) Virginia Military Institute

Basically by removing the public schools from the Big South and Southern conference, you get a good collection of southern private/military schools who play in 1-A with 1-AA football programs.

You include Baylor in there and call Tulane an academic stretch? ROTFLMFAO

This is a good idea; but it is never workable unless that league could get some sort of financial stability. Vandy/Baylor knows it can't compete in football in the SEC/Big 12; but, it provides the money to let it compete more than competitively in everything else.
If they ever come up with a playoff system or a BCS bowl system where every league gets one nice payday, then a league like that is possible, if not imminent.