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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2003 6:36 am 
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Which Conference or Conference's have the next move.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2003 9:49 am 
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1. The Big East - Needs 8 football members by 2005 or 2006.
2. The ACC - If it's request to lower the number of schools needed for a championship game is not aproved, they will move as quickly as possible for a 12th member.
3. CUSA/WAC/MWC- In response to 1 and 2, these conferences will reload as needed/possible to position themselves for greater BCS access. Suspect any actions to be taken before negotiations for the new BCS contract are finalized before 2005, though any realignment may not take place until 2006.
4. MAC - Any remedial action needed if members are lost to other conferences or to new 1-A requirements. Can survive loss of two members.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2003 11:13 am 
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Have hinted at this before, but I suspect that other than the BE move, the next conference announcing additions will be the MWC, ahead of the ACC. Reason is they know they have to expand with a couple of good schools to make themselves more BCS-worthy, and they are totally non-dependent on eastern dominos. Since there is no way PAC10 is expanding, they can be supremely confident they will start the dominos on the West Coast. They know they have to get at least to 10 for sure, and don't even have to wait for the outcome of the ACC petition. If the ACC petition fails, they can always add two more to go to twelve.

So my order is a little different:
1) BE
2) MWC

And then the dominos will flow from both coasts inward...

:D


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2003 11:29 am 
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I'd put the MWC ahead of the Big East as making the first move. The Big East is still facing internal unrest, whereas the MWC appears to be solid ground.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2003 3:34 pm 
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Have hinted at this before, but I suspect that other than the BE move, the next conference announcing additions will be the MWC, ahead of the ACC. Reason is they know they have to expand with a couple of good schools to make themselves more BCS-worthy, and they are totally non-dependent on eastern dominos. Since there is no way PAC10 is expanding, they can be supremely confident they will start the dominos on the West Coast. They know they have to get at least to 10 for sure, and don't even have to wait for the outcome of the ACC petition. If the ACC petition fails, they can always add two more to go to twelve.

So my order is a little different:
1) BE
2) MWC

And then the dominos will flow from both coasts inward...

:D


Dude - we have been talking about the ACC/Big East for a long time - not many if any thought that Miami and Virginia tech would go to the ACC and look what happened - I can say almost for sure that (I believe it was Moosehead Cane) when I said Miami and Va tech and WVU would eventually be in the ACC he said no way never - look what has happened - well, we'll see about WVU - but don't sell the PAC 10 short, in my opinion, most leagues will go to 12 schools within a few years - apologies to Moosehead if it wasn't you, but I think it was! - Arkansan


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2003 4:12 pm 
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Quote:

So my order is a little different:
1) BE
2) MWC

And then the dominos will flow from both coasts inward...

:D


Bingo!

From the East...BEast triggers changes to C-USA, which in turn may effect WAC-east or MAC or SunBelt

From the West...MWC triggers changes in WAC-west, which may impact WAC-east.

The WAC is where East meets West in the converging dominoes. The question here becomes which way does the WAC go? Can you imagine a WAC that is mostly in the Central Time Zone? It reminds me of the NFL prior to re-shuffling. The old NFC west had SanFrancisco, Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, and St. Louis. What 4 of those five are West of I'm not really sure... ;D

8-)


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2003 4:13 pm 
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The next two moves (coming sometime this academic year, IMHO):

1) The Big East needs schools -- two of them -- to retain its status as a bona fide football conference. So they should act first.

2) The MWC may wish to add Hawaii and a second school (Boise State, Fresno State, or someone else) to beef itself up for acceptance into the BCS.

The most decisive moves (which may not be made until 2005 or 06):

1) What type of conference, if any, will Notre Dame wish to join? A big-school, AAU-oriented conference in ND's home region (i.e. the Big 10); a more diverse set of institutions -- including many Catholic universities -- based in ND's alumni and fan base (i.e. the Big East), or a conference with academic prestige and a critical mass of private schools, even if it is geographically remote (i.e. the ACC).

2) Will the Big 10 fill its 12th slot? If yes, every other conference will be likely to follow suit.




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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2003 9:15 pm 
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I think the MWC is way down the line. They seem disorganized right now. There's a good reason for that. They have something like 4 new presidents and are without athletic directors at several schools.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:22 pm 
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and say the next move will not be taken to expand.

Several things are going on right now in Division I-A:

1) Last year for schools to prove themselves in attendance and scheduling areas to remain at the Division I-A level. Although the regulations go into effect in 2004, most teams close to the bubble are convinced that the 2004 year will be a "probation" year in which troubled schools can improve. Even so, most aren't waiting. San Jose St. had a sellout crowd for their Grambling game last weekend, and only the second time ever in their current stadium. (How 'bout that band? Excellent scheduling move on their part, even if they didn't pocket the proceeds.) They will be all right in the attendance department this year as a result, even if they only pull 10,000 at their other 3 home games. (They could stand to schedule some more, though.) Schools need to bring home attendance-raisers even if they aren't going to make money from them, or they'll be making jack-squat in I-AA forever.

2) Realignment and solidarity talks have already commenced for the non-BCS I-A conferences, as confirmed by the Sun Belt commissioner in one of his interviews (the link is available somewhere on this site; can't remember where). Many schools both inside and out of the BCS are waiting for this effort to announce its intended direction. If they start to draw battle lines, BCS conference realignment will certainly take a back seat to the storm. Similarly, many non-BCS conference schools are taking a wait-and-see attitude to see if this will go anywhere.

3) Conference USA has "assurances" from the Big East commissioner against raiding its mid-major squads, and that C-USA will not be blindsided as the Big East was. Yeah, right. BCS inclusion chatter for mid-major schools was most vehemently opposed by Tranghese. There is no love lost here. Thus C-USA needs to be looking now for replacement schools to remain relevant. Many have speculated that Louisville and Cincinnati would jump at the chance to go to the Big East, and Louisville has already admitted as such if given the chance. Scratch Army off, as they recently announced their football-only C-USA status will be detached soon. That would take C-USA down to 8 if the Big East starts grabbing up schools. Do they just sit on that? TCU and USM are still in conference, as the best 2 football schools. Basketball would still have Marquette and Memphis, and both sports would have a not-so-shoddily rated South Florida squad. That would still be enough for 2 bowl teams (or maybe 3, but not 5), and March bids would go down annually by 1-2. (The NIT will still be crawling with C-USA schools, probably.) Is that "good enough" for Conference USA? Probably not.

4) The MAC is going to have to reckon with some school failing to meet requirements. Buffalo has mightily struggled. It's easy to forget that some of these schools play I-A football, they are so undermarketed (even though it's some of the most competitive and fun-to watch football in the country, with many rivalries). Many MAC schools are just over the 15,000 requirement. Eastern Michigan has been uncompetitive for a while now, and I can see where one or two other schools may falter. However, who aside of Marshall, Toledo, or UCF (for geographic reasons) would be subject to realignment attempts? I think the MAC has solely internal, structural problems, but they need to be resolved quickly. That, and any conference that has 14 teams and 2 bowl berths needs to change something (or get better negotiators!). Next move needs to be to get another bowl bid; they have the qualifying teams every year.

There's 4 moves I haven't seen yet that could come first. There's more out there.


Last edited by birdistheword on Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2003 2:25 am 
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WAC from what I can tell has the next move then again the Big East goes first like in october there is going to be alot of conferences doing the scramble it just might take away from the Bowl Season.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2003 3:55 am 
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The ACC and Big East is done. Who has the next move? Does TCU leave for the MWC and CUSA invite La. Tech.?

Does the MWC invite 1,2 or 4?
Does the WAC lose LA Tech?
Does the WAC and Sunbelt merge or does the wac get all the teams.
Does the sunbelt invite fau, fiu and florida a&m?

From what I can tell we are not done yet.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2003 7:14 am 
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I'll try to answer the opposite, what is NOT next:

• Big Ten adding a new member
• Pac Ten adding two new members

I don't believe either of these two conferences feel the pressure to expand as a defensive move. Neither has expressed a need for a 12 team conference/championship game. If they do expand, it will be because the schools they admit will be considered good fits, academically and athletically.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2003 7:51 am 
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MWC definity has the next move. I believe they want to extend invites to TCU and Boise, but you wont see them talk about it, or even make the offers until they are assured by both schools that the offers would be accepted. This is especially true for TCU. If MWC makes an offer and gets rebuffed, that will look to the BCS folks like TCU thinks C-USA is a stronger conference...or at least has more upside.

Boise will come like a Bronco after a carrot.

Will TCU switch? Talk out of Texas would indicate that, but I don't know. If MWC only takes Boise, then were done, but if not...look out, here we go again.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2003 3:44 am 
MWC will invite TCU and maybe 3 others. Then CUSA will invite La Tech. After that The WAC and Sunbelt will fight for the rest. I see Idaho, North Texas and Arkansas St. going to the WAC. Leaving the Sunbelt with MTSU, Troy St. Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe. Which basically leaves them with 3 teams. La-Lafayette is a 1-AA school. Pac-10 and Big-10 will not invite any schools. After that its 1-AA teams.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2003 1:50 pm 
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MWC will invite TCU and maybe 3 others. Then CUSA will invite La Tech. After that The WAC and Sunbelt will fight for the rest. I see Idaho, North Texas and Arkansas St. going to the WAC. Leaving the Sunbelt with MTSU, Troy St. Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe. Which basically leaves them with 3 teams. La-Lafayette is a 1-AA school. Pac-10 and Big-10 will not invite any schools. After that its 1-AA teams.


Not a bad idea. I disagree with Arkansas State going to the WAC. I think this is what will happen:

MWC: gets TCU and Boise State, moving to 10 and secures a BCS bid

CUSA: invites LA Tech for losing TCU.

WAC: Invites Idaho to replace Boise State.

Sun Belt: North Texas, LA-schools (2), Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State, Troy State and invites FAMU and FIU, maybe W. Kentucky upgrades football to 1-A. They would have 8 (9 full with W. Kentuck football) and a better regional basis.


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