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PostPosted: Fri Nov 14, 2003 12:57 am 
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All-Conference
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For all the wailing, knashing of teeth and lawsuits, this may be a relatively minor, if rather hectic, set of realignments. Minor compared to what happened in the early 90's. Some conferences are still feeling the reverberations from that.

Due to the BE supersizing, the impact has been basically limited to the fb conferences below the ACC in the pecking order. The MWC is looking to expand, but they are acting independently of what happened in the east.

The ACC took 3, but only from the BE, significantly improving their fb position.
The BE supersized to 16, taking 5 schools, but all were from CUSA. The BE improved their bb position, but took a hit in fb. However, it is possible the schools could thrive, no longer being in Miami's shadow.
The CUSA took 2 southern outlyers from the MAC and 3 eastern outlyers from the WAC. They took a big hit in bb, but should still be among the best of the rest. And in fb, they are roughly equal and could be better by virtue of being more compact geographically. They also shed a couple of bb schools to the supersizing, mathematically and geographically challenged Atlantic 10.
The WAC took 2 schools from the Sun Belt, improving by virtue of filling the donut hole left by the departure of the MWC schools.
The MAC lost a school that was a great addition, but may have improved themselves enough that the only reason they miss the Thundering Herd is due to their Traveling Hordes.
The Sun Belt is getting rid of their western wing and doing what they were doing anyway, filling their ranks with southern I-AA schools.
The other 4 BCS conferences are not in any rush to expand and have not been affected.
The BE might be tottering and could still fall, splitting in two as the supersized WAC did, and impacting conferences throughout the eastern half of the country, but for now, the dominoes have stopped.



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PostPosted: Fri Nov 14, 2003 8:52 am 
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Good summary of what has happened bullet, but it does seem a bit of an "eastern" point of view (grin).

The most significant and interesting dominos are yet to fall from a midwest and west perspective. TCU going to MWC would be huge if it happens, since it will influence public opinion, the press, and all other other conferences about the numbers and relative power and rankings of the conferences, and their pecking order.

This in turn will create further pressure on the BCS oversight committee to open up the BCS, or create more BCS access. BCS access changes are dominos also, and will influence further things, especially NotreDame's future and BCS access. Domino winds blow not just from individual conferences, but from the BCS presidential oversight committee.

And speaking of NotreDame, they may be the biggest domino of all, perhaps tilting from independent status to falling into the Big10... From a midwest point of view, there ain't a bigger domino around--bigger than any BE/ACC shuffling or realignment.

And if Big10 is the BigDozen, what about the Pac10. Pac10 probably takes either the two Colorado Schools or the two Utah schools (if BYU finally consents to travel and play games on Sunday). Then we have BigXII or MWC involved again...

And then there is the MAC. From a midwest point of view, this is only beginning to get interesting, and virtually all options are on the table. ..

Hey, from a non-eastern point of view, we're just getting started over the long haul...

;D ;D ;D




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PostPosted: Fri Nov 14, 2003 1:42 pm 
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Agreed, in the Midwest and West things are just starting to heat up. Many fence sitters and when the first one falls, Katie bar the door because it is going to open things up all the way down to the Mid-Majors.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2003 10:30 pm 
Give me a number from 1-100 on A) the chance the following will happen and B) whether it SHOULD.

Notre Dame to the big ten.

Colorado and Colorado St. to the PAC 12

TCU to the Big 12.

8 bcs teams: the 5 big conference winners (sorry big east) and 3 wild cards (obviously these could be from any conference.) Use the BCS to determine the top 3 non conference winners.

quarterfinals:
Rose Bowl: big ten vs pac 12
Cotton, Gator and Holiday Bowls: the other 6 quarterfinal teams seeded accordingly

semi finals: the teams reseeded so the highest remaining faces the lowest remaining.

finals a week later.

Semis and finals rotated between Orange, Sugar and Fiesta Bowls.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2003 11:56 pm 
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I really like the idea, but it probably won't happen.

I'd like an 80,
but probably a 30.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 27, 2003 7:30 am 
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It looks like a fine plan if the Rose Bowl accepted qtr final status. No help for the non BCS schools, which is ok with me.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 27, 2003 4:49 pm 
For further major moves, it appears up to the Mountain West Conference.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 28, 2003 9:54 am 
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Quote:

The Sun Belt is getting rid of their western wing and doing what they were doing anyway, filling their ranks with southern I-AA schools.


Do you think this is what the Sun Belt wants to do? This is a result of the "minor" shuffling you are talking about.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 02, 2003 5:45 pm 
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Needless to say, the attendance by-rule is seriously gonna impact the Belt. Expect to see more realignment or even a merger there.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 02, 2003 6:26 pm 
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I think the SunBelt and MAC have the largest issues with schools retaining 1-A status. There are some WAC schools (SJ State, Utah State), but a lot of the MAC schools and SunBelt will have a hard time meeting the requirement. What should they do? Move back to 1-AA? I think that isn't a good option.

I think that what might happen is that some of the better 1-AA schools (Montana, Florida-Intl, Western Kentucky, Youngstown State) might move up and the other schools will move down. These conferences might dissolve, but its more likely that they'll scramble by having some teams move up to replace the teams that didn't do so well...


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 02, 2003 6:30 pm 
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The ball is in the MWC commish's court. Once they decide, there will be mass movement to finalize everything. The one other area that might complicate things is Notre Dame. If they go to the Big East, there wouldn't be any other changes. However, if they went to the Big10, the Pac10 might look to expand by 2 just to keep up. Then it'll get interesting as this line would happen in order: MWC-CUSA-WAC-SunBelt. It would be the most interesting day in college sports history when and if Notre Dame accepts a conference and the Big10 and Pac10 expand. It would be the biggest thing since the disbanding of SWC, expansion of SEC, Big10 adding Penn State, etc.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:24 pm 
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I wonder if even Notre Dame did join the Big Ten, if the Pac-10 would seriously consider expansion. It has got to be the most tradition centric conference outside of the Ivy League.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2003 11:43 am 
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I'm trying to find what I recall was a Tom Hanson comment denying that the Pac-10 would go to 12 simply because the Big 10 (Oh, please let me bring algebra into the equation and call them the Big X) found a 12th athletic member.

In any event, there's plenty of play out west currently about the notion that the Pac-10 not only does not need 12, but that there's no advantage to it in itself. If you don't, at least, expand the recruiting base with an expansion, it actually has negative value. Expanding within the current strength of the conference's TV market (which, IMO, extends at least to the Continental Divide, and beyond when considering Wazzu's popularity in Montana) has at most a null improvement on the stature of the conference (and that roughly IS the recruiting base of the conference, though California is the core of that base).

If Colorado tires of the big 12 (I don't see Texas going), then the Pac-12 is in business. I'm not sure this happens in my lifetime.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2003 1:18 pm 
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You are right about the Pac-10 influence in the Rockies. During my stays in WY, I've noticed that the Fox Sports package brings more Pac-10 games to viewers in the Rockies than an similar MWC or WAC packages.


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