good thoughtful analysis, FiniteManWorks...
particularly appreciate your insights on Idaho....

8-)

The University of Idaho is in the middle of a crisis involving its non-profit fund-raising mechanism, which may end up costing the school and the state millions. The athletic program is having to subsist on non-appropriated funds in order to cover deficits. It lies in a slightly-populated portion of Idaho, while the state's largest city (Boise) grows by leaps and bounds 300 miles away- at the expense of the rural areas of the state, where environmental issues and changing market conditions are laying waste to small communities and forcing residents to leave. It rests 8 miles from a Pac-10 school that isn't exactly in the most supportive market (if you want to extend Spokane that far).

I may have expressed some optimism about the ability of Idaho to use the neutral site card to stay 1-A, but fans aren't going to go to Moscow because they're in the WAC... they'll go if the football team does well, and that's going to be awfully hard to accomplish in the current environment. It's not enough to just exist in 1-A, folks.

This is an interesting world you've created. Everything I've seen says that the WAC looks at Idaho and wonders if they're going to stay in 1-A, in a facility that no other 1-A school wants to travel to because the size of it limits the guarantees that can be paid out. The TV market is limited (the local market focused on Wazzu). I'm amused by how much of a positive you've built of something that has way too many issues working against it. Every fiber of my being tells me that this school tries to hold out for a few years before ending up in the Big Sky. (On that measure, the big issue is the scandal, as fund raising for ANYTHING has stopped virtually dead, and the most Republican state in the Union isn't about to tax the place back to prosperity.)

Here we go:

MWC:
Fresno State to MWC
Boise State to MWC
Nevada to MWC
Hawaii to MWC
MWC = 12 Teams

WAC:
San Jose State drops FB returns to Big West
Loisiana Tech to CUSA
Rice to CUSA
SMU to CUSA
Tulsa to CUSA
WAC = Dead Conference, remaining teams scurry for a new home and hope they can find one.

This scenario all depends on the MWC who is holding every card in the deck regarding realignment in the West (except Pac-10). Once they move, the WAC, Sun Belt and Big Sky will finally settle on their final structure.

This whole realignment web site will probably just close due to inactivity! Should be interesting!

Oh I forgot, NMSU and USU return to their conference of orgin and wonder what they were thinking when they joined the WAC. Maybe NMSU will go back to Big West also and play football w/ Sun Belt.

I don't think the dominoes have stopped, but they have slowed and will probably continue to be slow for the near future. Lets take a look at the main reasons dominoes may roll again.

1) MWC expansion
2) Notre Dame joins Big Ten

The MWC is on record as saying they will expand a maximum of 2 schools this year, in hopes of landing a BCS berth. I think it will be Boise St., TCU or both - no more. If both join, La. Tech goes to C-USA and Idaho gets an invite from the WAC. If only TCU, La. Tech. goes to C-USA and WAC may (I doubt it) invite Idaho. If only Boise, WAC will try for N. Texas and may add Idaho if they agree. This may cripple the SunBelt, even with the new Fla. schools. If N. Texas doesn't move, Idaho more than likely gets screwed w/o an invite. All in all only a few more moves.

If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten, or Big East for that matter, The effect will be minimal IMO. The Pac-10 won't move, at least until it it absolutely has to. If ND joins the BigE, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Big Ten make a move for Pitt, just cuzz :D. Either way, the Pac-10 stands pat.

IMO the prime mover in future reailgnment is the new attendance criteria...especially in the MAC and SunBelt. If the NCAA starts picking off MAC schools one by one, they will start picking from the SunBelt (MTSU and Ark. St.) to keep at 12. If the NCAA kills more than 2 in one year, the MAC might just shrink and leave the SunBelt alone. The WAC is not immune to attendance as well. If Boise and La. Tech. both leave and Idaho and SJSU get the boot, the WAC will also be shopping - But where? NAU, UM, MSU? Those are all a stretch...Any ideas? :)

I would think they would push hard for the top western Div.1AA schools. Montana, Montana St., N. Arizona, Portland St., N. Colorado, Cal St. SLO and UC-Davis would all have to get looks. Not exactly a list of whos who, but some very good potential in that lot.

I don't think all of the dominoes have stopped falling yet, but they probably will slow down. I'm beginning to think ND will wind up in the Big Ten (I've seen some recent rumors on that are convincing me that they are looking in that direction). The MWC will expand, probably by one for right now, and that will be Boise St. TCU will stay with C-USA, and the MWC will attack the WAC again, this time coming away with Fresno State. Look for the Big 12 to make some moves in the future. I've seen some indications that they are leaning towards having 14 members, and I've seen some recent news that has reaffirmed that assertion. Look for New Mexico, CSU, and BYU to be in the Big 12's mix.
Also, look for Temple, LTU, and UTEP to be in some talks with C-USA soon.

Just curious about what you've heard about the Big XII going to 14 members. I live in Austin and attended grad school at UT and have kept up pretty well with athletics around here (esp. football). I haven't heard anything about this, but it sounds intriguing. What's your source?

Also, just read that Navy is looking at playing in the C-USA.

Why would any conference want to go to 14? Scheduling would be really awkward.

I agree. Anything more than 12 is just too unwieldy and untimately will probably lead to an emotional distancing between members who have little to do with each other...in other words...a split.

The main reason a conference like the Big 12, Big 10, SEC, or ACC would go to 14 is for more power in the NCAA, IMO. There will in the future be a restructuring of the NCAA or a breakaway. The more schools you have on your side , the more say you have on topics that are discussed.

Alan,
try this link:
http://www.kusports.com/news/columns/story/103590

If the Big XII taps the MWC for BYU, New Mexico and CSU, you can bet that will create a brand new vacuum of re-alignment events. If MWC were 9 or 10 strong and then dropped to 6 or 9, then MWC will be on the prowl again for new members.

1. MWC will tap WAC / Sun Belt again - what's left!
2. OR there will be some type of WAC / MWC merger

I'm guessing a merger would be likely. The conferences will attempt to build a strong organization that will be impervious to defectors. Why would you want to go to CUSA if the MWC/WAC is the baddest conference in the West besides PAC-10.

I can't believe that the Big XII would want to go 14, but the conferences just seem to get bigger. Is the Big East 16 now?

Well now it appears that the Big XII must make a move, and then the MWC and then maybe, just maybe the dominoes will stop falling!