Okay, so I was WAY off.

I still think that the MAC will end up with a bowl bid or 2 out of their strong PR this season. UCF wasn't doing well this year, so their loss is rather inconsequential. (What were they doing in the MAC to start with?) Marshall will hurt, but not badly. BGSU, Toledo, NIU, and Miami are all strong and more often than not pull a winning record. Add in an occasional surprise from schools like Ball State and Western Michigan, not to mention the second-place team in the Eastern Division, and you'll have a conference with 5-6 bowl eligible teams. Local bowls for the MAC schools to play some 6-6 BCS squads would be key to going up the conference totem pole.

On another one of my points: the only reason that there is no major cooperation between the non-BCS conferences is that a pecking order does exist:
- C-USA and MWC
- WAC and MAC
- Sun Belt
C-USA and the MWC will never sit down with the others and talk about team swaps. And why? They're in the catbird seat. They have the better teams, the better bowl alignments, the better TV packages, and more fan interest. No one cares much anymore about the WAC. Certainly very few care about the MAC. (The average fan could not name 4 schools out of the 14 MAC squads.) The Sun Belt? Try getting the average fan to name TWO schools from there.

If MWC takes TCU, Boise, Fresno and another team(Hawaii, UTEP, or Nevada.

CUSA will add Louisiana Tech thats a giveme.

The WAC will add North Texas, Idaho, Arkansas St., Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana-Lafayette. To go with San Jose St, New Mexico St., Utah St.

That leaves Troy St. and MTSU which could end up in the MAC.

Independents-Notre Dame, Army, Navy and Temple
Now the Big East could add Army and Navy as football only members. Later on in 2005 or 2006 bring back Temple as Football Only and an upgraded UMASS.

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

As I said before, I really think that the MWC will only expand by 1 or 2. They will not raid the WAC by 4 teams. The WAC is a good partner to the MWC. What I mean by that is that the schools play each other often. There are some rivalries (New Mexico-New Mexico State, Utah-Utah State) and some close schools (BYU-Boise State). I would hope that the WAC would lose maybe one or two (opening the door for Idaho and/or North Texas). I think the Sun Belt won't lose too many schools. They have established as a pretty good basketball conference and are doing ok in football. Some of their teams have problems, but I think that if they got rid of Idaho, then they could be a southern conference again, with additions of a few florida schools and maybe W. Kentucky upgrading. LaTech wouldn't consider moving back to the SunBelt, but I think they fit there better.

I still think that LaTech will get taken by CUSA and the WAC will remain WESTERN. Wow. What a concept...

FBG, I like this thread. It is really what we're all here for! ;D

It makes for much more fun thinking the next move is MWC and they will go to 12. But the more I think about it, the next move is up to TCU. I believe that the reason things are so quiet in MWC/TCU land is TCU is pressuring the MWC to expand to 12, but MWC doesn't want to.

What TCU wants:

MWC-Mountain
TCU
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
New Mexico
UNLV

MWC-West
BYU
Utah
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawai'i
San Diego State

This way they get a reasonable travel schedule, a fairly easy ride to the championship game (for now), and a nice trip to Hawai'i now and then (not every other year). Not to mention BCS strong consideration.

What MWC wants:

BYU
Utah
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming
UNLV
San Diego State
New Mexico
TCU
(Maybe) Boise State

Boise only to even out the bb/olympic sports. This Still has BCS potential, and a minimum of revenue sharing.

Thats how I see it. Which way would you guys go if you were TCU? MWC?

If Notre Dame knocks on the BigTen's door, they will be allowed in. ;-)

TCU is a recent football contender. But they are NOT part of the Mountain Wests regional demographic. Furthermore, under today's circumstances, I don't believe that TCU would be interested in the Mountain West given the lack of regional rivalries.

However, what could happen is a package deal. The BCS is feeling some heat from Congress. They can make the situation go away by including some of the "have nots". The question is "which" have nots.

Clearly, Conference USA is making some strides but doesn't warrant inclusion in a BCS bowl. Mountain West is the best contender for an additional spot.

What is possible is a package deal. The BCS offers admission to the Mountain West conditionally on:
1) TCU goes to the Mountain West along with another Texas school (Houston, SMU or UTEP). This gets one of the "near BCS" school into the BCS without including the Bulk of ConferenceUSA schools who are clearly "not ready". It also adds a central timezone to the Mountain West and increases it's demographics into highly populated Texas.
2) San Diego St and Fresno St are added to the Mountain West. This gets the Mountain West into major California TV markets.

An additional or alternative provision could be to include Hawaii. This is a political move intended to keep Hawaii Senators from going the way of Orin Hatch and interfering with the BCS. Ultimately, the best BCS solution for Hawaii would be the Pac-10. This is their best geographic fit.

The goal of the excercise is:
1) Solidify the BCS voting majority in 1-A football. This includes retaining the Big East (which is now equivalent to the Mountain West).

2) Include all major TV markets in the BCS by making sure there are alumni in each region with BCS interest.

3) More importantly, make sure that Senators and Congressman don't have a particular axe to grind. Orin Hatch is all over this issue because there are two schools from Utah (BYU, Utah) that are on the outside looking in. A similar thing could be said of senators from Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, North/South Dakota, Hawaii. If you take away motivation for those senators to act (especially a committee chariman like Orin Hatch) you take the winds out of any efforts in Washington to stick it's nose in this business.

San Diego State is already in the MWC.

If TCU excepts MWC membership they will bring along Boise St., Nevada, and maybe UTEP.

Louisiana Tech will go to the CUSA

Then if Notre Dame moves to join full membership in the Big 10, the PAC 10 then will go after Hawaii, Fresno St. or San Diego St..

Which leaves MWC one team away from 12 ,if PAC 10 gets Hawaii, Fresno St, or San Diego St the other team will join the MWC

Which leaves WAC with Utah St, New Mexico St, San Jose St., maybe North Texas and Idaho.

The WAC will then invite teams from the Big Sky conference Montana, Montana St, Idaho St, Northern Arizona, Sacramento St., Eastern Washington, Portland St. and Weber St. or they could fold and join the sunbelt.

Sunbelt will invite Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida A&M and Maybe Western Kentucky.

IMO this could happen.

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

If TCU excepts MWC membership they will bring along Boise St., Nevada, and maybe UTEP.
--No more then two will go to the MWC. TCU is probably getting the most support, but other scools want another school if they are to vote fot TCU.

Louisiana Tech will go to the CUSA
--I agree.

Then if Notre Dame moves to join full membership in the Big 10, the PAC 10 then will go after Hawaii, Fresno St. or San Diego St..
--Will not happen anytime soon. The PAC would probably rather bring in UC-Davis (they need some upgrades though) and Hawaii. I do not see the PAC bringing in a Cal St. school unless the state legislature gets involved.

Which leaves MWC one team away from 12 ,if PAC 10 gets Hawaii, Fresno St, or San Diego St the other team will join the MWC
--MWC would be at either 9 or 10 so would not do anything at this point.

Which leaves WAC with Utah St, New Mexico St, San Jose St., maybe North Texas and Idaho.
--Since the MWC will only take Boise if even them the WAC still is in good shape. If Boise leaves the WAC brings in N. Texas and ends up moving lateraly.

The WAC will then invite teams from the Big Sky conference Montana, Montana St, Idaho St, Northern Arizona, Sacramento St., Eastern Washington, Portland St. and Weber St. or they could fold and join the sunbelt.
--No one else will be needed, though I would like to see N. Arizona come to the WAC fairly soon.

Sunbelt will invite Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida A&M and Maybe Western Kentucky.
--The Sun Belt should invite W. Kentucky as a full member as it is now they are the best all around athletic school in the conference and there football program will be no worse than middle of the road.

IMO this could happen.
--IMO

FBG, Are you sure you're not getting any beer? ;)... Love the ideas but can only wish they would happen. :'(

gumby I'm not getting a drop of liquor unless its contra band ;D. Besides that their is not a drop of beer inside kuwait or Iraq anywhere. Believe me I'm still looking thou. Its so un-american over here.

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

So you say hawaii will join the pac 10. if they do pac-10 needs one more team at the time the teams that look good to them maybe only fresno st and san diego st the latter one being the best fit. maybe the pac might invite unlv because of the basketball program. imo fbg

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

won't invite UNLV because of their basketball program. It is sort of the ebodiment of the fly-by-night academic standards of the former University of Southern Nevada. Not to say that others haven't had similar problems, especially in reference to their football/basketball programs (e.g. Arizona State, Oregon). At least the West will always have its established second-tier conference(s). There are various reasons that possible first-tier schools in another region (e.g. East) could be elevated, but it simply won't happen in reference to the Pac-10 (e.g. Air Force, Brigham Young, Fresno State, Hawaii, UNLV). Its sort of like a built-in opposition.

When the time comes for the PAC to expand look for UC-Davis to get a long hard look.

Pacific-12 Conference

PAC - Southern
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Cal
Arizona
Arizona St.

PAC - Northern
Washington
Washington St.
Oregon
Oregon St.
UC-Davis
Hawaii

To return to the topic, one of the following will have the next move:

1) MWC announces who it will invite. Prior agreement is assumed, so if TCU has already declined in private, expect something like Boise/FresnoState.

2) BigTen/NotreDame will announce they are having serious dialogue with the idea of coming to an agreement.

3) BCS folks will announce new formula for the whole BCS schezam. NotreDame will say they are "surveying the horizon".

4) RoseBowl officials will publicly lament that they can't seem to get a Big10/Pac10 matchup anymore.

5) University of Southern North Dakota at Hoople (the fightin' Prairie Dogs) announces they are initiating a suit against the BCS for violation of antitust laws.

8-)