Okay, now that I've set out my opinion on what the MWC/TCU might do in the MWC thread, time to see my thoughts on the ripple to the WAC. I see the possibilities of the WAC losing 0,1, or 3 to the MWC.
If MWC takes none, the only real question is what to do with La. Tech. Which in turn (again) depends on TCU. If TCU goes to the MWC, La. Tech. joins the C-USA...no problem. The question then becomes to take Idaho or not for the 4/4 home away thing. If TCU stays C-USA, then an invite goes to N. Texas, as a bridge to La. Tech.
If MWC takes 1 (Boise me thinks) with no TCU, an invite goes to N. Texas and maybe Idaho (4/4 again). With TCU, La. Tech is gone and Idaho gets the invite for eight.
If MWC takes 3 along w/ TCU, now the fun starts. It doesn't really matter which three go but I think BSU, FSU, Hawai'i. Now you're down to five (La. Tech is gone) and scrambling. Idaho definitly gets an invite. Then what?
Try to get the Montanas to move up?
San Jose State
New Mexico State
Merge with SunBelt?
San Jose State
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee State
As for my two cents. I don't see TCU and MWC agreeing on an offer. TCU stays C-USA. Now for the shocker. I don't think MWC will take Boise w/o TCU! :o I really thought something would happen until I sat down to think about it. The only movement I see is North Texas accepting an offer from the WAC to create a pretty fine conference :)...Thoughts?
I think that the MWC will expand, regardless of what TCU decides. TCU is on top of their list mainly because of current football success, but more importantly because of the Dallas-FortWorth TV market. You could argue that Boise has had more success than TCU over the last few years (albeit in the WAC). The Boise tv market (something like 124th nationally) simply won't compete with DFW.
I do think that TCU will stay in CUSA, but it will all hinge on the BCS negotiations. If they are assured that the MWC (with additions of 2 or 4) would get access to the BCS, then they would accept. But if it goes the other way and there are no assurances of BCS access, TCU will stay in CUSA for lower travel and I thought they have 12 now and are looking for a championship game as well (if anyone can let me know on that).
The odd school to me is LaTech. I wish they would bite the bullet and switch spots with Idaho. Idaho should be in the WAC and LaTech should be in the SunBelt. This is only arguing regionality. LaTech considers the SunBelt a lower conference, so they wouldn't go there unless they have to. This means that North Texas will get the invite from the WAC regardless of the TCU situation. I agree with you there. This will make LaTech happy and Idaho gets the shaft once again from the WAC (happened before when they invited LaTech & BSU).
I think that MWC would look at adding Boise State. They are a good regional fit and would help them in football (4/4 scheduling). If that happens, maybe Idaho would be their replacement? I think the negative thing is I'm sure that Boise State will be lobbying AGAINST inviting Idaho because they hate us, plain and simple. But if Boise State leaves, then I think the other WAC members wouldn't be as negative towards Idaho.
I've said it on other posts, but I don't forsee any western schools moving up to 1-A. These schools would have the potential: Montana, Montana State, E. Washington, Portland State, Weber State. However, most of these schools are state schools. States have really bad budgets right now and I can't see them approving anything in the way of moving to 1-A. The only school I could see having any success moving to 1-A would be Montana. However, they are a perennial contender for the 1-AA championship and with the recent 1-A moves (Idaho, Marshall, UConn) that won't end anytime soon. Montana is so ambitious that they wouldn't move up unless they were guaranteed membership in a BCS conference. Don't see that happening with the WAC, so they won't move.
Overall, I hope that LaTech gets into CUSA and Idaho gets into the WAC. They are two schools that are the most confusing to me in regards to their regional affiliations.