I am starting to think that CUSA may end up deciding to go to 14.

Reasons:

1) With TCU, CUSA was going to have problems keeping their TV money because of the huge basketball losses. For all the abuse I have heaped on TCU lately, I will acknowledge that over the last few years they have been a media magnet. I think Memphis/Marshall will immediately step into the role of the near unbeaten team in a non-BCS conference, so I don't think there is a HUGE loss from that perspective, but currently going into contract negotiations, without TCU the problem is even more magnified.

Memphis is reportedly STRONGLY pushing for an upgrade in basketball. When you consider they lost 3 great basketball tourney schools and a couple bubble NCAA/NIT level schools, it makes sense that they really need more than just Tulsa.

I think ultimately adding UTEP OR Temple OR LTech just isn't going to cut it when it comes to the TV deal.


2) Per the above article, CUSA is facing the 6/5 rule and is seeking an exemption for the loss of their NCAA BB bid.

If they pulled LT AND UTEP, so would the WAC. The WAC would be forced to pull Idaho to survive (yay!~), by my math causing the SB to ALSO fall into violation of the 6/5 rule. 3 of the DIV 1 conferences in violation? I doubt the NCAA enforces the loss of bid---especially since 2 Bowl Coalition conferences started all of this.

3) Which schools.
CUSA needs schools who can compete for the title in football or basketball, bring fans, and can bring something to the TV deal, be it a market, a name. Plus they have to be despirate to join and likely to stay.

Toledo is a nice market #69 over 425K TVs. I think Toledo and Miami are nice football schools with some minor success in basketball in the past, but they seem content in the MAC. Probably rightly so.

Temple is despirate for a DIV 1 home. They could likely move into the MAC (football only? Dunno.). I think they would bite at an offer from CUSA. Chaney may not be powerful (or secure) enough to block this move. Losing a Div 1 football program is a crushing blow for an athletic program. Temple is in Philly, the #4 TV market with 2.784M+ TV sets. A good basketball program in a great market would certainly help. And if Temple football picks up against lesser competition, it could be a grand slam.

Marshall and ECU are relatively close, so it isn't an awful reach---probably a little better than TCU to the MWC.

UTEP is equally as despirate. They gain nothing from being in the WAC. Their games aren't seen by the majority of the country. They are not able to recruit Dallas or Houston very effectively as a texas school. They are an afterthought when it comes to state funding (an understatement, someone posted about UTEP's state funding situation but I can't remember the specifics).

UTEP reportedly travels very well and as a Texas school would have fans in Houston and Dallas----this would really help SMU, Rice, and Houston---markets CUSA HAS to keep to survive. UTEP is currently an NCAA tourney level BB school and has a history (Haskins). UTEP has also hired one of the top 20 collegiate football coaches. They appear to be a school primed to carry their share of the load in any conference. El Paso a relatively small market at #100 with 283K+ TVs. It also seems likely that the Sun Bowl would end up with CUSA affiliation---raising the conference back up to 5 bowls.

L Tech needs to be in the Sunbelt or CUSA to survive. They have no market #135 (174k TVs) and worse---actually share that market with UL-Monroe, but they have a history of being competitive, and thanks to Karl Malone, Randy White (:)), and (i think) PJ Brown are on the basketball map. They have improved their academics and have recently been better in football and basketball. They also are far enough from Tulane to have a differrent recruiting area, but near enough to travel fans to Tulane and Houston---struggling programs CUSA cannot afford to lose.

Some fine & interesting points, Finite.

Tulane is a very different type of school from LA Tech. Rice will be the most academically selective school in C-USA. SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa are private schools too.

Temple does have the opportunity to play at the new Lincoln facility in Philly. Their football has been edging better each year lately, against some difficult barriers.

If C-USA tries for 14, they do risk a future split. If LA Tech ends up staying in the WAC, the WAC will need to add one or two for the comfort level of LA Tech. At nine, the WAC could expand, but it would come at the expense of the SunBelt. North Texas State would be the prime team under discussion.

It could be true, in order to lure a Miami of Ohio or Toledo to C-USA, a geographical travel partner would be deemed necessary.

Temple, if selected for C-USA, may have to use the airport extensively. But they are near a big airport---like Boston College ;D!

14 Teams seems okay...

but i don't like UTEP being in the mix...yea they're in Texas, but they are so far apart from all the other Texas Schools that's why i think it's not a bad idea for them to be in the WAC, especially with New Mexico State now in the conference...

La. Tech would be a good pick to be in CUSA, i prefer a "southern" conference, so i would pick them over Temple or the Ohio Schools...

I think the MAC would be wise to invite Temple once the new attendance rules come into play, the MAC might lose a couple of teams and adding Temple would be a good thing...depending on how many they lose, adding Army and Navy in a couple of years (if the Big East doesn't pick them up) would be the direction for them to go...

I definitely think that the MWC and Conference USA need to stop being paired in the Liberty Bowl...I think the MAC #1 and the New Look CUSA #1 should meet, it would boost attendance since both conferences are closer to Memphis, and move MAC #2 to the Motor City Bowl, then they could continue they're tie-in with a MAC #3 in the GMAC Bowl...it's unfair to have 2 teams out of a 14 team conference go to bowl games, especially with the success this year of the MAC...

CUSA will survive, adding another "southwest" school would be the best choice as far as scheduling, rivalries, bowls, and fan support...once they add La. Tech, they can put the Championhip Game in New Orleans...and i think the MAC should hold their Championship in Cincinatti, Ohio...

I think Conference USA will actually benefit from the expansion, it will give some of the mid level old CUSA teams a chance to shine...(Houston, Tulane), and give some new members (Marshall, UCF, Tulsa) a better chance to go to a bowl...

CUSA can keep all their bowls, i really think that they could have 6 good teams to fill up those spots in 2005...

I think it is almost a certainty that this would lead to a future split, but I don't think it would neccessarily be a bad thing. Add UNT/Texas St./a contrite and beaten TCU/NMSU?+hot western SBelt school at that point to the Texas half and maybe Troy St./FAU/FIU/FAMU to the Eastern half and you have 2 geographically sensible conferences with more stability and decent markets in each. The goal of a commissioner SHOULD be to help the schools make money today, evolve their athletic programs, and position themselves well for the future. Too many commisioners have the goal of preserving the conference above all else, IMO.

In the short term, it accomplishes the short term goal---securing the best contract possible.




This is exactly why raiding LT is a neccessity. If LT and UTEP are out of the WAC, there is NO reason for UNT to bolt.* Travel is simply too much of a bear for too little reward. WITH both of those schools the rumor is UNT will still pass on WAC membership. There is a point where the money gained by joining the next tier of conferences does not outweigh the losses in prestige & recruiting (not to mention the lost revenue spent on travel costs) incurred by an athletic program in leaving a compatible conference footprint. UNT's administrators, to their credit, see this. IMO, BC & TCU are about to learn what Idaho and LTech have.

* Taking this a step further, if UNT stays in the sunbelt, the sunbelt survives. 10 years from now, UNT, FIU, FAU, and (if they ever show in D1) FAMU might all be established D1 programs at solid sized schools with good fan support (very possible) in nice TV markets. 10 years from now a raid or even a MERGER with the sunbelt and a geographic split into an eastern and a western conference with shared bowl games might make all the sense in the world.

One last thought, I am totally for any move that makes the WAC accept Idaho, because it is stupid for them not to. If the Idaho athletic program falls apart, what happens when LT and UTEP DO bolt? The WAC needs to offer the membership already. The sooner they add Idaho, the sooner they will have a long term school that won't bail on them. Offer the membership based on Idaho getting up to 24K seating in thier stadium by 2006. If you put the gun to them, Idaho will respond. Give most D1 schools an offer like that---that they despirately need and they will do what is neccessary to make it work. Making them slowly bleed to death with no guarantee to ever getting in is beyond stupid---IMO... :)

UTEP has not wanted to be in the same conference as NM St. If the WAC were not as precarious as it currently is, I don't think they would currently be in the same conference. There are a number of posts on this in the threads for the WAC. Here are two reasons that I think might have been huge, but are understated on this board.

I think, I may be wrong here, that for a long time in the old WAC, UTEP was UNM's balance. Their Rival. UNM did not want the weak NM St program as a rival. UTEP was there in a bigger city to take the place of NM St. UTEP came out pretty well in the deal. They got legitimacy in mirroring a #1 state school (almost like El Paso was it's own state) and they could play NM St. as a cheap travel opponent OOC to boot if they wanted too. Now they probably decided that that was not a good idea as they were the #7 or #8 football school in Texas and NM St is the #2 in NM and the two schools are really close ---like 30 miles apart. That is very close for 2 div 1 schools with a big, not huge population to draw from. UTEP owned El Paso recruiting---why open it up to another competitor unneccessarily? They didn't want NM St. to profit too much from having a nearby opponent and eventually grow to displace UTEP in the WAC. By NOT playing them they forced NM St. to spend more money on travel and less on facility upgrades in addition to making it harder to recruit El Paso.

When UTEP was abandoned by the MWC, UTEP still had the other Texas schools. They could make an equal claim to being the #5 school in texas behind the Big 12 schools.

Now those schools are gone. As it stands, UTEP is the #10 school in Texas in terms of football fame---even with their fantastic coaching hire. In NM, UTEP now is mirroring a long tread upon #2 state school. To make matters worse, they are doing it on even terms.

The second point, I want to discuss is the TV market. UTEP and NM St. have shared the same TV market. Schools in the same TV market do not want to be in the same conference in general and frequently conferences do not want multiple schools in the same market. The reasons for this are pretty obvious if you think about it.

TCU and SMU are in the Dallas/Fort Worth media market as is UNT. TCU and SMU have changed conferences repeatedly since the SWC broke up, but UNT has never been invited to join their conferences. In fact, i am pretty sure both schools refuse to play UNT in football ---although UNT has continuously persued such an arrangement, and it would draw pretty well (comparitively).

That should seem odd---especially at SMU where they count your tickets on the way in AND the way out (sorry. I couldn't resist.). The reason TCU and SMU don't play them is that that would be an acknowledgement that UNT is improving. On top of that if TCU and SMU lost to UNT semi-regularly, how could those old SWC schools recruit DFW effectively? By not playing UNT, the power of conference tiers helps TCU and SMU recruit. Recruiting helps teams wins. Supposing they did play annually and 5 years from now all 3 schools were drawing 24-28K per game and UNT had split the last few games with TCU and owned SMU. Not at all far fetched---if they played. Which DFW school is a power conference going to come after SMU, TCU (both enrollments are ~10K) or UNT (enrollment 30k+)?

A conference can add one of the two schools and claim a large remote TV market in their media packets. One trip from Wyoming to Dallas or Clemson to Boston per season per sport is expensive, but surviveable. Two trips gets to be very expensive.

Plus TV think in terms of total TV sets. Overlaps don't usually count twice.

From UTEP's perspective, what happens if NM St. athletics take off and UTEP's falters. UTEP is the farthest outpost of the WAC. The WAC could jettison them if another school arrives that fits the footprint better and offers a UNIQUE, untapped market---N. Arizona? Portland St.? Sacramento St?

This doesn't even cover the fact that UTEP is forgotten in Texas, by reporters, by recruits, by the legislature, and by broadcast sports. UTEP is in a losing position right now. They despirately need out of the WAC and into a conference with texas schools.

(In the maps thread there is talk that Las Cruces, NM---home of NM St.---may actually be considered to be in both the El Paso market AND the Albequeque/NM market now. If that is the case officially, that would mean NM St. has a ton more TV clout than UTEP and the WAC frankly would be wise to dump UTEP and those travel costs as soon as a replacement is available/ they can survive the 6/5 rule.)

I want to back off this statement. I don't think this is accurate. The Sun Bowl has a pretty stable and well thought out setup right now for filling stands, by inviting pacific coast people (who may want to party in Mexico) and northerners (who would like to get out of the cold) down to play in basically a Jr. Rose Bowl. It has growth potential. Big schools who travel well and have a deeply developed conference rivalry. It would seem to be one of the more sound bowl game plans, if you think about it. The sun bowl has a 1.45M payout per team. I think the payout would drop if the schools involved weren't from the power conferences that they are.

Secondly, the 1.45M payout is more than the more or less centrally located Liberty Bowl payout (1.35M) for the CUSA champion. Certainly if they generate more money, they should get first pick of teams. Are you going to have the CUSA champion (Marshall?) going to El Paso every year? It doesn't seem very practical for CUSA or very profitable for the Sun Bowl.

CUSA's current Bowl schedule after TCU leaves:

Conf USA
Liberty (memphis) $1.35 Conf USA #1 Mwest #1
GMAC (mobile)$0.75 MAC #1,2 CUSA #2
Hawaii (honolulu) $0.75 WAC #1,2,3 CUSA #3,4,5
New Orleans (duh!)$0.75 Sun Belt #1 CUSA #3,4,5
$3.60

Aside from the money a nice package of bowls. 3 within the footprint and one an enticing travel destination.


Possible replacement bowls for CUSA:
Capital One (Orlando)$5.10 Big Ten #2 SEC #2
Cotton (Dallas) $3.00 Big 12 #2 SEC#3
Outback (Tampa) $2.65 Big Ten #3 SEC #3
Peach (Atlanta)$2.10 ACC #3 SEC #4
Gator (Jacksonville) $1.83 ACC #2 Big East #2
Alamo (San Antonio)$1.45 Big Ten #4 Big Twelve #4
Independence (Shreveport)$1.20 Big 12 #5,6,7 SEC #7
Houston (...) $1.00 Big 12 #5,6,7 SEC
Music City (Nashville)$0.95 Big Ten #6 SEC #5,6
Motor City (Pontiac) $0.80 Big Ten #7 MAC #1,2
Tangerine (Orlando) $0.75 ACC #4 Big12 #5,6
Cont Tire (Charlotte)$0.75 Big East #4 ACC #5


(all numbers pulled from a post by BoilerWill)

I think a lot of these bowls aren't possible today, but might be in the future if CUSA makes the right moves. A 14 team conference with heavy representation in Texas might be pretty interesting to the Texas bowls. Likewise in 5-10 years if CUSA expanded into florida a lot of the florida bowls might be interested. 14 teams in two conferences could yeild 6-7 +.500 teams a year. Bowls could have the option of taking a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place finisher in which ever division is closer. Limited travel and interesting destinations could make for pretty good turnouts from these teams with less recent successful history.

Until the expansion takes place, it will be hard to land new bowls. If they expand to 14, i think the Music City (SEC #5,6 vs. #1, 2 in CUSA East), the Houston (Big 12 #5,6,7 vs. #1,#2,#3 in CUSA West), and Independence (Big 12 #5,6,7 vs. CUSA West #1,#2, #3) would be great and viable potential targets.

I think the new CUSA has no chance at most of those bowls... they may have a shot at tangeine... UCF conection... independence.. Tulane and LTech if they take them, Houston, Motor City if they grab a couple of Mac schools, and possibly charlotte. :'(

I think the Music city and independence bowls would be the most likely of the 3 I mentioned as possibile new bowls if they expand to 14.

The music city bowl is close to the footprint, they would be replacing Big 10 schools that might not travel to well to that particular bowl. The independence bowl is relatively close to a number of the 14 and offers gambling.

My thoughts are CUSA needs closer bowls and bowls in good vacation spots to help them draw well. Those bowls look vulnerable to me for CUSA takeover after everything else is straightened out.

I don't think it would be a good idea to go after the tangerine bowl at this point. CUSA has very little Florida representation. It is pretty far for most of the schools---a situation that would lead to dissappointing attendence. The last thing CUSA needs is another black eye. Hawaii is one thing, florida, quite another.

The Houston bowl is a possibility, but one I am wary of. I would hold off on that one until a legit and solid claim on the attention of Texas is made. Houston draws horribly to everything.

The motor city bowl could be had, but what southerner wants to go to Pontiac in december?

This is a thread on the C-USA board CLAMING inside info on Toledo from MAC to C-USA...for whatever thats worth. Its been pretty slow around here so I'm posting just about anything I can find. ;D

http://www.killerfrogs.com/cusa/index.php?act=ST&f=4&t=11415&s=5aad17e7558bc89b317bc259021c16ef

Distance wise, and geographically, Ohio University may be a good fit for Conference USA. A recognizable name and good academics also. If they have not expanded their stadium recently, it was comparatively small, in the 20,000 neighborhood (but, maybe OK for C-USA).

The State of Ohio has six schools in the MAC. Michigan has three in the MAC. Perhaps if one or two did change conferences, and if one or two do not meet the attendance criteria for 1-A, then the MAC could reach out to somewhat nearby other schools to expand their domain. Navy, Army, or Temple could be possibilities; or other schools such as Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee from the SunBelt (if they do not have attendance problems of their own).

That's good clarification Joedadi. I had noticed from sports publications that Toledo's and Ohio's stadiums were in low 20 thousand something figures. Also, I remember seeing where one and/or the other did expand their stadium. Thanks for the update.

There seems to be a lot of mid major schools in the 30,000 to 35,000 range in terms of stadium size. But hey, adding a few endzone bleachers, for some, is realitively easy to do depending on space and field design. Building them upper decks, and schools have to shell out $$$.

As a side note, Wake Forest has done improvingly well with acquiring Ohio's former head coach and some key assistants.

I remember as a kid going to a Paul Dietzel coached, Univ. of South Carolina game with Ohio U. It was amusing to note that there were those in the crowd who thought then, they were playing "Ohio State". South Carolina also learned along that period, in a difficult way, there was a Miami in "Ohio" ;D.