The list seems quite remote.

Yes, you're right about the newspaper in Cincy. Dayton doesn't have a listing either. And yes, U Dayton has a 1-AA team, although their football attendance last year was about 3,000 average, so its not huge for football. So yes they are the home team in Dayton. Also, the average attendance difference between UCincy and Miami is about 10,000, going from 28,000 at UCincy to 18,000 at Miami U -- its 10,000, but not a huge difference.

But that southwest Ohio is an anglomeration of population centers. Between Cincinnati and Dayton is the satellite metro cities of Hamilton and Middletown. They are both located in Butler County, the same county as Hamilton and Middletown, as well as Oxford. Oxford is a town of 22,000 people, however, it is not simply just looking at it as they are located in a small town, "so that is their market". Its not like Ohio U being in Athens, OH, (1.5 hours from Columbus) which is a town the same size as Oxford.

Butler County has 350,000 people. The Hamilton newspaper does cover the Redhawks:

http://www.journal-news.com/

I don't think its unfortunate to be between two cities. The issues with small towns and big cities and college sports are odd with markets. Sometimes being in a small town nearby is just as advantageous as being in the city. Being in a small town at least 1 to 2 hours away and more is a disadvantage. But being within 1/2 hour away in the same metro area could be an advantage. Its kinda like the Big 12 taking the statewide schools in the smaller cities (College Station and Lubbock), except UT (Austin is a big city) as well as Waco for one of the 4 TX privates instead of the Big City teams in DFW and Houston (TCU, SMU, Rice, Houston). The big cities have a lot going on with the pro sports, and sometimes more than one university, that to be away from that a little, but yet close by near that population base has some advantages. As people have pointed out, Miami doesn't have a huge huge following, and small town location does have some disadvantages, but it can turn on a dime and for those same reasons may be some advantages to being in a small town 1/2 hour from 2 major cities and be in both of those metro markets (on the cusp).

As far as ECU, just like there is a 1-AA team in Dayton, there are 3 and maybe more that are in NC, that are similar types of universities to ECU. You have the HBCU of NC A & T in Winston-Salem. They averaged nearly 17,000 in attendance. Then you have Appallachian State and Western Carolina is the western part of North Carolina, which are both "Historic Normals", and similar institutions to ECU. Appallachian State averaged 12,000 fans last year and Western Carolina averages 7,000. Not huge by 1-A standards, but big for 1-AA. East Carolina averaged a little less than 30,000. I don't have the averages over a long period of time, though. But, what I am saying is that with the history of "Historic Normals" is that they were established as multiple colleges throughout the state, when they were established. Its sorda like if they don't follow UNC or NCSU, or the two major privates in NC, then they follow the regional "Normal" team, or its like "in addition to following ________U" they also follow the regional team. I know its possible it could be different in each state, but in Michigan, where we have 4 schools with a directional name, and 7 other schools that are also "Normal"-like, its like in Kalamazoo and SW Michigan there is heavy following of Western (which is the biggest of the 4 directionals as far as following), but people in Kalamazoo, or SW Michigan are also going to follow either U of M, MSU, and for that matter, there is also heavy, heavy following of Norte Dame in that part of the state ("Michiana"). However, there aren't that many Western Michigan fans around here. Sometimes people will follow EMU in addition to U of M and we even have MSU Spartan fans here in U of M's backyard. But not hardly any Western or Central fans. Maybe someone here can give anecdotal evidence that people in Asheville, NC (home of UNC Asheville) have a tendancy to follow ECU, in addition to UNC, and NCSU, but I don't see, from what I see in other states, much following outside of Eastern North Carolina, which probably means they don't get much following West of I-95. I could be wrong, though.

Re: Memphis.

I look at Memphis like I look at Louisville. Someone on this board answered another thread, saying that in Kentucky, when your in Murray, you see "Kentucky" shirts the most, and then "Murray State" and "Louisville" are tied for second. Louisville has had more success in football than Kentucky and both have been successful in basketball, but yet Kentucky is the statewide team, and not much following goes beyond U of Louisville beyond the Louisville metro area (~1 million in pop). And this is for the team that is noted as being in a current non-BCS league, outside of BYU, as having the best sports program and following of any non-BCS team. I kinda give half of Kentucky's pop of 4 million to U Louisville (2 million) to measure its market so its not missing potential following and market ( as it being the top current non-BCS sports program and following outside of BYU), but all of Kentucky's 4 million as the market for U of K.

For Memphis, despite being about 400 miles to the east of U of Tennessee, I see it similiarly, or even more conservatively for its market. Granted, Memphis had a good year last year. I don't have last years average attendance, but in 2002 their average was 28,000. Memphis is about the same size as Louisville (1.2 million metro market), and part of that pop, a small portion, is in MS, and part in AR. Once you cross the state lines, you will see followings for Ole Miss in Miss, and U Ark and Ark State (a regional "Historic Normal" which is about an hour away) in those states. So that's about 1 million in the Tennessee portion of Memphis metro. I don't have an atlas with me to look up the populations oc counties of the western third of Tennessee, but outside of Memphis, there's only Jackson, and Nashville is 200 miles away. With the exception of Memphis (a major metro), and Jackson (a small metro) there's not a huge amount of the state's population in that western third. Nashville is in the state's center and has 1.4 million in its metro. You also have Chattanooga in the southeast which is 500,000, then Knoxville in the east with 700,000 and the tri-city area of Johnson City-Kingsport-Bristol with nearly 500,000, additional, shortly nw of Nashville is Clarksville, with about 200,000. Most of the state's population centers in Tennessee are in the Central and Eastern 2/3 of the state, which has 5.7 million people and probably 3/4 of the population (4.2 million) are in that Central/Eastern 2/3rds. That means at the most you are looking at a greater and broader Western Tennessee market of 1.5 million at the most, that will have followings for Memphis, yes, but still U Tennessee, Vandy, Ole Miss will seep into SW Tennessee (I know this from the amount of people in Western Iowa that follow Nebraska instead of ISU or U of I, or the number of people in Toledo, that follow Michigan and Michigan State instead of Toledo, BGSU and OSU), as Oxford, MS is very close to Memphis. There's also the University of Tennessee-Martin, in the nw corner of TN, a 1-AA team with a small attendance average (3,000) but still its another layer of following in Western Tennessee.

So if Louisville can't get a statewide following layer that is close to the state flagship of Kentucky, but yet its the best of the non-BCS (non BYU) teams as far as program and following, I don't see much of a market for Memphis that's too much bigger than 1.5 million, which is only .3 million more than Memphis' metro area. I don't see people in Nashville, or Knoxville, or Chattanooga, or Kingsport, or Cleveland, or Columbia rooting for Memphis. Memphis is a regional team that doesn't go too much beyond western TN and there isn't a big population base in western TN outside of Memphis metro proper. Maybe I'm wrong and someone from there has anecdotal evidence that says something different than what I am saying.

As I stated earlier, I don't see the Big East expanding for at least 5 years, if not more. The reasons I have already stated.

As some of us have noted, things could change for any one school that could make them stronger or even stronger candidates than they are now. I have explained some of the challenges with expanding and picking a school (s).

But, the challenge at this point in time is that there isn't a team that perfectly fits what the Big East is as a conference. There is no diamond in the ruff of these teams. Maybe that's why the BE decided to only expand by three teams at this point in time.

As someone already noted, for every advantage each of these schools have for Big East membership, there's also a disadvantage for Big East membership.

I've stated my opinion about the importance of the Northeast footprint, and the potential of what could happen if a more than a majority of members are from outside that footprint. The advantages of having teams inside that footprint would be teams that wouldn't have a tendancy that they believe they should be in another conference because of institutional and geographic relationships as well as rivalries from old allignments. Additionally, there most likely wouldn't be the competition to lose such members as the ACC is maxed out and the Big 10 would only take one team. The area south of the Ohio River and represents an area of non-SEC and non-ACC teams that have switched conferences often (some reasons were out of there control, but some were by choice) that they may seek a different alignment later on if they felt that alternative alignment would be to their advantage. That is why I see the NE footprint as an important consideration as well as it being the only region where the Big East can be out front.

Long run, I think Memphis has a lot of advantages over Louisville. The only disadvantage is that Tennessee is a lot better at football than Kentucky. Conversely, Kentucky is much better at basketball than Tennessee.

Memphis is in a more populous state. I wasn't aware that TN was so highly populated in the mountains. But I did a quick check and if you draw a line from Clarksville west, you still get 1.8 million people in that portion of Tennessee based on the 2000 census. As you pointed out, Memphis is 400 miles from Knoxville. Louisville is only 70 miles from Lexington so there is no natural geographic territory, only the Louisville metro area.

Louisville has been better than UK in football recently, but that is only the last 10 years. And before that UK was better and UK was not very good.

You exclude the MS and Ark suburbs of Memphis and then try to exclude parts of Tennessee. I think you are probably right that the suburbs will more likely have Ole Miss or Arkansas fans, but there will be some Memphis fans. Don't forget, Louisville has Indiana suburbs. As for parts of Tennessee rooting for Ole Miss, I can't speak from experience with Tennessee, but I can tell you there were very few Ohio St. fans in the Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati. Iowa is not Tennessee. There is a world of difference in state loyalty in the South. Having lived in Indiana and Ohio as well as a number of Southern states I can speak from experience there.

Memphis has one other huge advantage over Louisville in football. There isn't much fb talent in Kentucky. They have to recruit far and wide. Memphis doesn't have to go nearly as far. Given similar leadership (Louisville has had excellent leadership in the sports area), I would expect Memphis to do better than Louisville in the long run. Being the clear 2nd school in the state, they both have advantages over similar schools such as Cincinnati, USF and Houston.

^I have never been Tennessee. But I do have deep family roots in Tennessee. My whole mother's side of the family is from the Vollunteer State. I still have Great Aunts and cousins that are from the south central part of the state, about 80 miles due south of Nashville on I-65. I know, from what they tell me, that they are mostly Tennessee fans in that part of the state and don't follow any other team in a group of teams that they follow. Now that is not western Tennessee per se, and if I had a map with me I think I would draw the line, which is fuzzy for any state when you divide it up like this -- granted that, but I would divide the state further west to demarcate western Tennessee, than a line straight south of Clarksville. I would follow a line of counties that are west of a line starting from where the states of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee meet northward to the Land Between the Lakes at the Tennessee/Kentucky border (roughly all the area west of the Tennessee River is what I would call the Western 1/3 of Tennessee and the farthest east of the U of Memphis following domain). The reason is that people from where my extended family lives don't identify with Memphis. They identify the near big cities as Huntsville, AL, Nashville, TN and Chattanooga, TN as the nearest big cities to them. One or two counties west of them its still hard for me to see them as being with Memphis more than Nashville or Huntsville or Florence or Decatur, AL.

Re: no OSU fans near Covington, KY/Northern Kentucky. Now I have been to Kentucky before including Louisville and the areas in metro Cincy in KY. That area of Kentucky is about 75 to 100 miles north of Lexington. Its too close to U Kentucky to have many OSU fans in Covington. Thats the same with the Toledo area. There are not many OSU fans in Monroe, MI, the near satellite city in between Detroit and Toledo. However, I do know there are numerous University of Michigan fans and even Michigan State fans in the Toledo area. That's because Ann Arbor is 60 miles away, and East Lansing is 120 miles away. I know this from first hand experience of not being able to find a sports bar in Ann Arbor the day of the 1997 Nebraska vs. Missouri game (the booted pass by Nebraska that a Nebraska guy caught on the last second for a TD to send the game in overtime). I couldn't find a local sports bar in town where it would be easy to watch the Nebraska/Missouri game via sattelite without a lot of rowdy Michigan fans watching them rout Penn State. So I decided to try and find more neutral territory and drove to Toledo to find a sports bar to root for the Huskers. I was suprised to find the sports bars of Toledo filled in equal amounts of contigents of U of M, MSU, OSU, and even Norte Dame fans, and no sports bar could I find a TV with the Nebraska/Missouri game. I left and lucky the Michigan game was so much of a rowt (sp?) and it got done early enough in the day, that they decided to show Nebraska/Missouri. I just happen to get home in time when they switched to Nebraska/Missouri and caught the very play that I'm talking about. What an exillerating way to cap off a frustrating day.

But anyway, I digress. Columbus is in the center of the State. Its about 100 miles or a little more from Cincy. I would suspect that U Kentucky is just too close to Covington for OSU fans to overlap into Northern Kentucky, that and that is the boundary of Big 10 and SEC, and there wouldn't be the interests in a boundary states team as much in another conference.

Although, I do have to say that the Nebraska/Western Iowa boundary thing. In Omaha, there are a number of people that move to Omaha that are Iowa and ISU fans. The Omaha media covers Iowa and ISU teams for their western Iowa viewers, but there is also a number of Iowa and Iowa State people that live in Omaha. So they go to sports bars in Omaha to watch Hawkeye games. ISU is not a problem as they are in the Big 12 like Nebraska and can get the game at home.

U Mississippi is 85 miles to the south of Memphis, which is the closest SEC team to Memphis. Its too close not to spill over into Memphis. Its like Kansas City, where a number of people working in the city are either Kansas, Kansas State or Missouri grads. I can see where a lot of Mississippi grads would go to Memphis for a job and thus have a large fan base in that city and suburbs, including TN suburbs. Its the closest major City to Oxford. Jackson is much further south and is not quite half the size of Memphis. Birmingham and Nasville and New Orleans are not too too far, but Memphis is like what Kansas State is to Kansas City. Kansas as well, but they are only 35 miles to the west, so they are a little closer.

I know about New Albany and Jeffersonville, IN. But that is probably about 1/10 of Louisville's metro pop. I don't have the name of the Indiana counties that they are in to know the exact population and proportion of Louisville metro. Those people are IU fans most likely, I recognize that. Louisville and Memphis are clearly very similar size cities and metro areas. Louisville doesn't have the distance from UK, but it probably is like what Omaha was to me growing up, where Lincoln was the nearest metro city (like Lexington), and Omaha was the big city/big statewide newspaper/biggest media market of the state (like Louisville). Its the best comparable to the Nebraska population centers, although Kentucky is a little more than twice the size of Nebraska, but Omaha is not much smaller than Louisville and Lexington is about twice the size of Lincoln. I know Lexington is big, but its half the size of the metro of Louisville. I would imagine that this difference allows Louisville the ability to project U Louisville statewide because of this, just like Omaha does over Lincoln in Nebraska.

In Tennessee, Nashville is the largest metro (1.4 million), its in the center of the state, its the state capital, so it can project teams or state news more statewide than Memphis. Plus you have Knoxville, Chattanooga, Tri-Cities near Virginia/NC border. There's no Central City of the state, except Nashville, and Memphis (though still the largest city proper in the state) doesn't project statewide like Louisville does in Kentucky. Memphis' focus in media is on the Tri-State area (including Western Tennessee, Northern Mississippi, and Eastern Arkansas, and the boothill of Missouri, and the Western tip of Kentucky).

IMO, Memphis is a regional team, with a the broadest market population of 1.5 million, and a mix of followings of Memphis, U Tennessee, Vandy, and U Mississippi, and a trickle of Miss State, Ark State, U of Ark and Tenn-Martin.

SG, I don't disagree with you on the present status of Memphis and the limits of its market to the immediate Memphis area. And there are a lot of Ole Miss alums in Memphis.

With some success, I do think they can expand that territory as I have discussed. The multiple population centers (vs. Georgia, Kentucky or Nebraska) make some difference, but the lack of a strong 2nd school offsets that.

Its a strong 1st and/or 2nd school for the western 1/3 of Tennessee. Its regional. Memphis, I would suspect fades out in the Chattanooga area, because of the 1-AA UT-Chattanooga. In the Nashville area, Memphis is really really faded. Home of Vandy, Tennessee State, plus MTSU, and Tennessee Tech are not far away. In the Johnson City (tri-cities) near Virginia and NC, Memphis is 500 miles to the west. It might as well be in deep Mississippi or Alabama. They used to have ETSU, but they just gave up football. Tennessee of course is in Knoxville, but as most flagship schools go, and with their 100K+ stadium and National Championship they have a devoted following that is statewide, from Bristol to Memphis.

Memphis is regional and may become stronger in Western Tennessee, but U of Tennessee following in the Western 1/3 will not fade even if they do. But they are a regional/Urban Grant school and most likely not go beyond their western 1/3 region. Regional teams don't get state flagship statewide following overlays. Louisville is the best at doing that, and it sounds they don't quite have it. Pitt and UCLA are also like that, but they have National Championships or Pac-10 Champs/Rose Bowl appearances and Heisman Trophy winners. I can't say that people in Redding, CA near the Redwoods root for UCLA in mass amounts. Nor do people in Philly root for Pittsburgh.

The only growth that I see them getting is in that western 1/3 of TN.

Here we go Big East will split BB and FB schools.

Big East
West
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Louisville
Marshall
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

East
Army
Navy
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
UConn

Army and Navy are in for football only. Marshall and East Carolina are added.

----------------------------------
Now the other BB members split up and join the A-10 to form the A-12.

Atlantic 12
--------------
North
Providence
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
St. John's
UMass
Villanova

South
Charlotte
George Washington
Georgtown
St. Joseph's
Richmond
Temple
---------------------------------------
Dayton
DePaul
Marquette
Notre Dame
Saint Louis
Xavier
Plus 2 other schools TBA.

Wouldn't that be the Atlantic 18? ;D

My take on 2010 if there were a Big East split...

Hypothetically, let's say the Big East wants a conference championship game so 12 would be the number (although I think 9 will be the number they stick with meaning 1 addition)


New Big East Football/ALL-Sports:
-------------------------------------------
Syracuse
UConn
* Army
Rutgers
Temple
South Florida

* Navy
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis

* Army and Navy are in for football only.


Big East Hoops:
--------------------
Providence
Seton Hall
St. Johns
Villanova
Georgtown
Richmond
Xavier
DePaul
Marquette
Notre Dame




Atlantic 10
--------------
Rhode Island
UMass
St. Bonaventure
Fordham
LaSalle
St. Joseph's

Old Dominion
Charlotte
George Washington
Dayton
Butler
Saint Louis

Old Dominion brought in as a travel partner (not a close one) for Charlotte and Butler, a candidate last year for A10 expansion is brought in to bridge Dayton and St. Louis.

The reality is that if Xavier, Richmond and Temple all leave the A10, there is a good chance that the catholic schools Dayton and St. Louis would consider the MVC. Charlotte would probably be forced to remain since there option would be limited to smaller mid-majors.

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This is another possible lineup for the Big East for 2010, with the criteria for inclusion equally being Northeast Footprint, market, fan following and support, academics/institutional fit, facilities, athletic performance (note, some of these criteria may be lacking right now, but could change):

Cincinnati
UConn
Louisville
Rutgers
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Syracuse
Temple
West Virginia

For 2015, 3 new members would be added. These 3 new members would actually begin phasing in their membership in 2010, as they would improve facilities, sports marketing and athletic budgets. This is based on the economy improving. The selection of these univerisities follow the criteria above:

Eastern

*UConn
*Delaware (NE Footprint, Academics/Inst. Fit, 800K-1M Market, Good Support)
*UMass (NE Footprint, Big Market, Academics/Inst. Fit, Good Rival Potential)
*Rutgers
*Syracuse
*Temple (NE Footprint, Philly Market, Good BBall, ~Academics, better than most)

Western

*Cincinnati
*Louisville
*Marshall (Adv: NE Footprint, Athletic Performance, Facilities, Fan Following, Rival to WVU/ Disadv: Academics/Institutional Fit, & ~Market but Adv overcome this)
*Pittsburgh
*South Florida
*West Virginia

Now, there are some alternatives to these 3 new schools (Marshall, Delaware, and UMass)

1. Instead of Marshall If the Big East wanted a more midwestern school instead of Marshall, these would be the choices:

*Miami (OH) (Academics, Athletic Perfomance, ~Market)
*Ohio U (Academics/Inst. Fit, Near-Northeast Footprint)

2. Instead of Delaware If the Big East wanted a more southern school, these would be the choices:

*Tulane (Great Academics/Inst. Fit, Market -- Equal to other major CUSA team markets, Stadium)
*UAB (BBall, Market -- Equal to other major CUSA team markets, ~Academics is better than most CUSA teams)
*USM (Fan Following, Athletic Performance -- Football, ~Academics better than most CUSA teams)

3. Instead of UMass If the Big East wanted an alternative northeastern school, these would be the choices:

*Navy (Great Academics, Northeast Footprint, recent fball sucess, Traditional Team)
*Army (Great Academics, Northeast Footprint, Traditional Team)
*Fordham (this may be in addition to UMass also) (Major Market, NE Footprint, Academics/Inst. Fit)

4. Instead of Temple If the Big East wanted a change for the Philly market, they would choose one of these 3.

*Villanova (Big East experience, Academics, Philly Market, Bball history)
*Delaware (if they didn't get invited from the first round above). (See above)
*Fordham (NYC would replace Philly here) (see above)

The new Big East Basketball Conference to be name another name. given the first round of Big East members in 2015.

East

Georgetown
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
Villanova
St. Joseph's

West

Dayton
DePaul
Marquette
Norte Dame
Richmond
Xavier

The New Atlantic 10

North

Duquense
Fordham
George Washington
LaSalle
Rhode Island
St. Bonnaventure

South

Butler
Charlotte
Detroit-Mercy
Old Dominion
St. Louis
Virginia Commonwealth

The basketball side has a lot of options after a split. With the addition of Marquette and DePaul, they seem to want to create the "Big North" Catholic basketball league. So:
Big North-East
Providence
St. John's
Seton Hall
Villanova
Georgetown
Holy Cross
Big North-Midwest
Marquette
DePaul
Dayton
Xavier
St. Louis
Detroit Mercy

These 12 schools cover NY, Chicago, Philadelphia, DC-Baltimore, Boston and Detroit, 6 of the 8 largest metro areas in the country. And St. Louis, Dayton, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Providence are thrown in for good measure.

Holy Cross was originally one of the schools the BE wanted. It would put them back in Massachusetts. Northeastern and Boston U. would be private school options who are probably better in bb right now, but they are not Catholic.

Dayton and Xavier are the strongest programs in the Atlantic 10 when you consider strength and attendance. Both were basically in when the BE was planning on splitting. I think they will be in if the league splits. St. Louis was with DePaul, Marquette and Dayton in the Great Midwest days. I think their move to the Atlantic 10 instead of the MVC was with a BE move in mind. Detroit Mercy brings in the Detroit market.

Notre Dame gets the boot as the schools don't want ND football money over-running their limited budget non-revenue programs. Frankly, ND just doesn't fit with this group.

Some alternatives to St. Louis if they didn't want to go so far west and Detroit Mercy if their program wasn't showing enough life are Butler (Indianapolis), Duquesne (Pittsburgh but struggling in A-10), Richmond (not north, not Catholic but solid private school bb program) and Niagra (upstate New York).

I think 12 is the number for them, as with their limited budgets, it helps to have more schools for the non-revenue sports (having enough teams that sponsor the particular sport) and they can reduce travel with more regional play in the NE and MW by splitting into divisions. In addition, Dayton and Xavier are IMO obvious additions, but the Boston and Detroit market are too important to pass up. That gets you up to 11 (or 12 if ND stays).

I just don't see the advantage for any basketball conference such as the one that would be formed with the Big East non-football schools, to expand to 12...it's just more schools to split the revenue with.

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Everybody keeps saying the BE is going down with its choice of schools.I see it another way,I see some bb only schools moving on because they cannot compete with the football schools.The only 1AA team that has a chance for football in the BE is Villanova.That I think is a long shot.If CAA/A10 teams want 1A football the remains of the MAC is where they are headed not the BE.The same is true of Temple heading to the MAC leftovers.I look for Army and Navy to share the 9th football only spot.