Well, the ORIGINAL format with the Paiute, Shoshone, the Modoc, some stray Aztecs, the various coastal tribes, and perhaps a little 54'-40 action appeals to me.

The Pac-10 are charitable, but exclusive, for very important reasons which have already been discussed.

Scoff all you want, but this really may be a better addition in keeping with the current Pac-10 outside-California model, than BYU & Utah: U of (state) and (state) State U.

Utah State is a fairly big state school with 22K students, located near the Idaho border, but not far from SLC. The Beehive Boot is a pretty big rivalry, though usually on different levels in football. Their rivalries in other sports are better.

Utah State has a decent football history in it's early years, and has produced the only NFL hall-of-famer from Utah ever. The stadium is on the small side -- 30K, but looks very expandable if needed. In fact, they are in the process of renovating it:

http://utahstateaggies.collegesports.com/genrel/041504aab.html

As big as the rivalry is between Utah and BYU, BYU doesn't really need Utah's company in a conference, and can survive just fine by itself. It's more on the Notre Dame/PSU/Miami national level, whereas Utah is typical of most state schools in recognition. BYU didn't gain any national success from Utah's company (although their rivalry is huge), and can do it again if needed. In fact, I myself have seen very few BYU-Utah football games (because they're barely ever televised here), and still consider myself a huge BYU supporter.

The Pac-10 let schools like Washington State in (not much better than USU in terms of scale). Washington State has a 37K stadium and really is in the boonsticks of Washington state. The closest sign of civilization seems to be the tri-cities area.

This may take a few years of the Aggies in the WAC to regain their dignity, but it's another Pac-10+Utah possibility.

Spokane, a mid-sized metro area is the closest population center to Pullman. It is 75 miles to the north and has ~415,000. Pullman is 25,000 people in a county of 40,000. Probably the most isolated, remote and rural of all the BCS teams. The Tri-Cities of Richland-Pasco-Kennewick is ~140 miles away and is a small metro area of ~190,000. One of the reasons Wazzu has been in the Pac 10 is because it is the 2nd flagship U of the 15th largest state in the nation, the 3rd largest state west of the Mississippi and the 2nd largest state of the Pacific Coast. Population wise Washington is the closest anywhere close to California that offers the next largest state of the West and near California. It has been that way since about the 50s or 60s. So in order for the Pac 10 to have 8 teams when they were the Pac 8, Wazzu had to be included. Arizona will soon pass Washington in size and will be closer geographically to California with a state offering some population in a bordering state. But it wasn't really a significantly populated state until the 1970s, hence in 1978, with the success of ASU, it and U of A were asked to join the Pac 10.

Wazzu is also fairly decent academically. Its a 2nd Tier National University.

Now academically, U of Utah fits well in the Pac 10. It is also a 2nd Tier National University (like Wazzu, U of Oregon, and U of Arizona), and has a good medical school. It has a fairly decent size stadium (bigger than WSU and OSU, and just a little smaller than U of A and U of O). And their football program is on its way up.

Now the problem with USU is that it is a 3rd Tier National University. Its fairly decent, and is getting more noteriety as a Land Grant (I believe it has just be designated as a western center for Land Grants). Only Oregon State and ASU are 3rd Tier National Universities in the Pac 10. The Pac 10 is big on academics and to have 3, 3rd Tier National Universities may not sit well with them. The stadium is small, but it could be expanded. Logan is about 1 hour north of the farthest reaches of the Greater SLC-Ogden Metro area (although after driving from Logan to SLC back in July, I was asstonished that Logan was located on the East side of the Wasatch Mtns, in Cache Valley, and I had to drive over a steep Mtn pass to get back to I-15 and down to SLC -- It was a 4-lane highway though, but I always seem to think all the population centers of Utah were all west of the Wasatchs). So its not as isolated as Pullman, although that mountain pass was steep. But the other problem is that USU is the 3rd University in following compared to BYU and Utah in that State. There's probably statewide following of USU, but its a 3rd statewide team. This makes its market appeal seem smaller. BYU and Utah overshadow it. This for a state with 2.4 million, although the state is rapidly growing. The other thing is that it needs to get its attendance up, as last season it average below the D-1A requirement of 15K

So it needs to overcome a lot of things and Utah needs to get to 4 or 5 million and USU needs to have a significant share of that new population growth. Some academic growth, which is probable in time. But it seems USU is maybe 20 years or more away, if even, from being a big market team, IMO.

There are other ways to get to Logan than Highway 89. Cache Valley is in a nook in the Wasatch front, and there is a flat area to the west that can alternatively connect to I-15 better. 89 is the original "State Street" in most towns, because it connects that vertical line of cities in the north half of the state. Alot of Utahns are used to driving through canyons to get to places, so I don't think it's a problem.

Also Utah State gets alot of students from eastern Idaho in the Pocatello - Idaho Falls area, so it's not just drawing from Utah. It's practically an Idaho school in the same sense Wyoming is a Colorado school.

^Yes, I know, I drove into Logan from an alternative route. I was driving on I-84 coming from the north and west out of Idaho (from Boise and Twin Falls) when I was headed to Logan. The roads I took though were secondary, had to take a couple of switchbacks. Logan was a little out of the way. Not too much that people can't find it, or drive over that mountain pass, but a little bit extended from SLC.

Logan is big enough city and located not too far off of a direct route between SLC-Ogden and Pocatello and Idaho Falls. One of the major reasons why the interstate system was built was not only for military reasons. But also to be an intercity connection. Logan, it seems intuitively speaking, did not have I-15 built to it from SLC and then continue north to Pocatello because of that Mountain Pass. The 4-laning of US 89/91 was done probably because of the commuting that is happenning between it and Ogden and SLC. So most people probably use that mountain pass, 4-lane highway instead of the switchbacks that go around the north end of the high ridge of the Wasatch Mtns to get into Logan. Otherwise that road would be the one that would've been 4-laned. This is not ihibitting factor per se, but I thought it was interesting how it was separated by a ridge from the Greater SLC-Wasatch Megalopolis cities (Ogden, SLC and suburbs, Provo-Orem -- Weber, Davis, SLC, Utah counties).

As far as comparing Utah State as being the "Wyoming" for Pocatello/Idaho Falls. Pocatello and Idaho Falls are not Denver or the Front Range metro cities. They are both two small metro areas, that combined amount to 250,000 people. Southeastern Idaho, while being a population center of Idaho, probably only amounts to at the most ~400,000. Thats like from Rupert, ID westward. Pocatello also is home to Idaho State University. Many people in that region that live in Idaho go to school there, and probably go to the ISU football games. I knew a dorm floormate at the University of Nebraska that was from Pocatello. He went to NU because it had an architecture program and he ran for the NU Cross Country team. Anyway, he would talk about how that part of Idaho mostly go to ISU. Utah State has 10% of its student population from Idaho, and 70% from Utah. ID is the biggest other state source for students at USU, but its not unusual for border states going to a school in another state. Utah State probably has some marginal following among people in SE Idaho, but its not an Idaho school. Its not a factor that would lead to USU being a Pac 10 school.

USU for years has wanted to be in the same conference as BYU and Utah. They, for years wanted to be in the WAC. They probably were the best intermountain candidate for a WAC expansion, before the WAC-16 in 1996 took a bunch of Texas schools, and a couple of Big West schools. Since that time, with Nevada's growth and Boise's growth, it was looked over by Nevada, and Boise State, which when the WAC formed, USU was way more significant. They have falling behind in their conference alignment position. If the MWC expanded, Hawaii, Boise St., Fresno, and Nevada would be taken before Utah State, unless both Utah and BYU or 2 other MWC schools went to the Pac 10. It has taken 40 years and 3 or 4 massive realignments of the WAC for them to finally be in the WAC. When they were in the Sun Belt, they were in a 4-rung western conference below the Pac-10, MWC, and the WAC. Now they are in a 3rd rung by finally being in the WAC. There are reasons why Nevada and Boise State have overshadowed them -- namely outgrowing them in market and their own performance on the field. So the Pac 10 is most likely not going to find a choice in USU if the WAC didn't until 4 massive realignments and 40 years later.

Again, only if the population of Utah gets to be 4 or 5 million and USU's following grows in Utah, and its academics improve will it be considered for a bigger market and visable conference. BYU and Utah combined just overshadow it too much as well as Nevada and Boise State.

I think Utah is a possible Pac 10 candidate. Other than BYU, Colorado State, UNM, and maybe U of Nevada are more likely that USU.

what about colorado st and new mexico. they are relatively close to each other and are pretty big schools. new mexico is a tier 3 school, but in a city with 500,000 people. and colorado st was rated 117, so they are pretty well respected, and are in a city with 125,000 people. both bring a new state to the pac10. while they aren't big time football programs, they are solid and could improve.

^Well, I would say that CSU and UNM are more likely than USU.

CSU would fit academically. UNM needs to get up to a Tier 2 school. They've been recently rated high for Engineering though. As that state grows, I suspect that UNM would eventually become a Tier 2 school. Both would be whole new markets for the Pac 10. But so would Utah.

I still say BYU and Utah are the best picks outside of CU and UT. But I don't see the Pac 10 expanded anytime soon anyway. In someways, they are the least likely of the BCS conferences to expand.

A most interesting question: what would Colorado's response be to a possible Pac 10/Colo St link-up? And what effect would it have on the Buffs if that came about and CU were still in the XII?

The Big Ten and Pac Ten are two conferences that draw so much of their reputations from acadmics, as well as athletics. They also tend to be have schools in larger states than the Big XII does.

Now (IMHO), I believe this observation has had something to do with Iowa's domination of interest in its own state over Iowa State. Again IMHO, one of the most dominant relationships among two state flagships in the country. Iowa has always taken great pride in its B10 membership over ISU's Big 8/12.

Could Colo. St. put itself in at least an equal position in its state due to the overall institutional prestige (not football, of course) of the Pac Ten over XII?

Are you saying this because you went to U Iowa for two years?

I don't see U Iowa membership dominating statewide in Iowa. I lived there for 3 years, and see them as equals. Of course I lived in Atlantic (a small town in the western 1/3 of the state), and Des Moines, which is only 1/2 hour from Ames and Iowa City is 2 hours east. To me they are on equal footing. ISU is not that far below, academically from Iowa. ISU has a better engineering school, has the Design school (with Architecture), and thus has some programs that are more noted than U of I. U of I has the Med school and Law School, and their liberal arts are much better (Creative Writing program is #1 in the country), but there isn't the difference between these two schools like U of M and MSU, IMO. ISU is seen by Iowans as their very own "Purdue".

The difference between the pop of the Big 12 and the pop of the Pac 10 is 12 million people. The Big 12 has 43 million and the Pac 10 has 55 million. The Big 12 has 3 states that are smaller than the state of Oregon (Pac 10 smallest) NE, KS, and IA. But the Big 12 has more states. CU is also closer to 8 of the other 11 Big 12 schools compared to its closest Pac 10 school of U of A in Tuscon. While that would be a political issue in Colorado, I don't think it would necessarily impact it happening.

But I don't see CSU as a top Pac 10 school expansion choice either. The distance too great, and the academics, though minimal enough, wouldn't drive the Pac 10 there. Same with UNM. Utah and BYU make more sense. But CSU and UNM make more sense than USU. Nevada may also make some sense when comparing to the more far distant CSU and UNM. They also need some academic improvement and some improvement on the field, but geographically, and market growth wise their candidacy has some merits compared to most western schools.

But here again, the Pac 10 is the least likely to ever expand. Without CU and UT, and don't think they have a lot of desire for other schools.

I suppose some prejudice is involved with my thinking. I do know that when i was in Iowa City, Iowa totally dominated the state and the Big Ten was a lot more respected than the Big Eight. I suppose, in all fairness, that the Big Twelve has more prestige than the B8 did, especially aquiring the huge population centers of Texas.

I still do feel that Iowa has a stronger state-wide and national presence than ISU. For a rural state with no major population center, the Univ. of Iowa manages to have a hefty academic rankiing and Iowa football, most years, is light-years ahead of ISU (despite the Hawkeyes losing streak to the Cyclones).

Well I disagree. Des Moines is 500K. That is a mid-major, statewide city, like Little Rock is in Arkansas. Its population does not reflect its importance. It is an important city of commerce. The 801 Grand Building, the home of The Principal Insurance Company, was for the longest time, the tallest building in all of Iowa as well as 4 of the 6 states that border Iowa. Only Minneapolis and Chicago had taller buildings among the 7 states of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Missouri, South Dakota, and Nebraska. 801 Grand was taller than any building in St. Louis, Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Omaha. That is until Omaha built the 1st National Bank Tower, and now Omaha has 1 building that is taller.

Des Moines is the "Hartford of the Midwest". It is an Insurance Capital. It is also a Publishing Capital, home of Meredith Corp, the publishers of Better Homes and Gardens. The 500K pop, while being mid-major in size, does not reflect the major commerce hub that Des Moines is to the Midwest and the nation. Des Moines is also home to the Des Moines Register, which is the statewide newspaper for Iowa.

When I lived in Des Moines, the Des Moines ABC affiliate broadcasted mostly the Big 8/Big 12 games, not the Big 10 games. Iowa has only a slightly higher academic ranking. The lastest USNWR rankings has U Iowa at #58, and ISU at #84. ISU's engineering school is more higher regard than Iowa's. I also know that ISU has a better City Planning program than U Iowa's. U Iowa's has barely meet accredition recently and ISU's thrives as a Urban Planning school. ISU has things that U Iowa doesn't and vice versa. Iowa doesn't replicate academic programs as much at both schools like some states do, and for that Iowans recognize which school focuses on which programs and they recognize that.

ISU has won quite a few more games against Iowa recently. In the Western and Central parts of the state, my experience is that they are on equal footing, In the eastern part of the state, where U Iowa is located, U Iowa has a stronger following.

To me there is much more of a bigger position between U of Michigan and MSU than U Iowa and ISU.

i've done some snooping. i left out byu because of sundays and utah st because its too small.

utah
academic - 111 (tier 2)
utah population - 2.3 million
income per capita - 17k
median income - 46k
salt lake city population - 1,000,000
enrollment - 28.5k
stadium - 45k

colorado st
academic - 117 (tier 2)
colorado population - 4.5 million
income per capita - 24k
median income - 47k
ft collins population - 120k
enrollment - 25k
stadium - 30k

new mexico
academic - tier 3
new mexico population - 1.9 million
income per capita - 17k
median income - 34k
albequerque population - 500k
enrollment - 25k
stadium - 37k

nevada
academic - tier 3
nevada population - 2.2 million
income per capita - 22k
median income - 45k
reno population - 180k
enrollment - 15.5k
stadium - 31.5k

hawaii
academic - tier 3
hawaii population - 1.2 million
income per capita - 21.5k
median income - 50k
honolulu population - 370k
enrollment - 20k
stadium - 50k

of these teams utah and colorado st seem to make the most sense. they are the strongest academically and are both well respected in football. utah just kicked the tar out of texas a&m. i dont like franchione, so im happy for him.

it wouldnt be fair if byu and colorado could keep utah and colorado st out, especially colorado.

http://www.geocities.com/randolphcarter2012/01football/013realignment.gif

^Nice analysis lsuilike.

Might I suggest one thing though. You use the city populations. That's fine, but the immediate market really includes the metropolitan area, as people live in the surrounding suburbs and could easily get to a game. Likewise you might want to use the median household income for the metro area instead of the city. It would most likely reveal a higher and more representative income for the market. Unless those are State Median Incomes, which may be just as good. You can go to this website to do that:

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTGeoSearchByListServlet?ds_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U&_lang=en&_ts=112272129058

Here is the table from the Census Bureau for the 2000 populations for Metro areas:

http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/phc-t29/tab01a.pdf

However, Salt Lake City is a odd one, as Ogden is by itself a metro area like SLC, but they are also defined as a Combined Statistical Area. Prior to 2000 they were defined together as one metro area, and the Combined Statistical Area is a way to reflect a greater market. Ogden is only 1/2 hour away, so its definitely within commuting distance. Here is the table for Combined Statistical Areas from the the Census Bureau:

http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/phc-t29/tab06.pdf

Now for Reno, there are two adjacent metro areas that the Census Bureau doesn't combine. Reno metro is adjacent to Carson City metro. But since they are only 1/2 hour away from each other, they legitimately should be combined as there is no college in Carson City. Also I would estimate the population of the Reno area, to not only include Carson City, but some of the development and communities surrounding Lake Tahoe, which is not in either the Reno or Carson City metro areas. Reno-Sparks metro has ~342,000 + Carson City metro has ~52,000. This makes ~394,000. I would estimate it to be nearly ~500,000 with all the Tahoe Area surrounding it. It may be a little less than that, but essentially its ~500,000.

For Fort Collins-Loveland metro, which has ~252,000, I would say that CSU is also a Denver team, and is only 50 miles north from Denver. So I would give it a special regional megalopolis (Front Range Megalopolis) population of ~3.5 million, which reflects the continuous adjacent metro areas of Denver-Aurora, Ft. Collins, Boulder, Greeley, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo. Not all of the 3.5 million is entirely devoted to CSU, but its a statewide team and that is essentially its sub-state regional market population while 252,000 is its immediate market population and its statewide pop is 4.5 million. All of these figures describes its market population.

For Albuquerque, you might throw in Sante Fe, which is 65 miles to the north. But its a little too far, but you could include it. Albuquerque's metro is ~730,000, and with Sante Fe (65 miles to the north), you get =~900,000. But I would just stick with Albuquerque metro for immediate pop.

For Hawaii, the metro area for Honolulu is the island of Oahu -- which is Honolulu County. It has a population of ~877,000

So to cap, here is the pops for markets for these 4 schools:

Utah: SLC-Ogden = ~1.5 million, 2.4 million state

Colorado State: Ft. Collins-Loveland = ~252,000, with 3.5 million in Front Range Megalopolis, and 4.5 million statewide.

Nevada: Reno-Sparks = ~342,000, with Carson City and Tahoe Region thrown in its ~500,000, with 2.2 million statewide.

New Mexico: Albuquerque =~730,000, with Sante Fe = ~900,000, and 1.9 million statewide.

Hawaii: Honolulu metro (Island of Oahu -- Honolulu County) =~877,000 and a statewide pop of 1.3 million.

Again, the state population is important as these teams are all statewide teams, although Nevada may be all of Nevada outside of Las Vegas which is UNLV's territory. But still including the state's entire population is important, as its a better academic school to UNLV and may have some relevance in Las Vegas.

If the Pac 10 decided they needed to pick out of those schools, I would rank it:

1. Utah (no contest)
2. New Mexico
3. Hawaii
4. Colorado St.
5. Nevada

Academically, I don't think there is much difference between #2 and #5. Nevada has the smallest enrollment and is already in a state the Pac 10 probably thinks it controls. Nevada and CSU have the smallest stadiums. CSU is a distant #2 to Colorado and Nevada is arguably #2 to UNLV. I don't think the Pac 10 would pick a school that was 2nd in its state behind a team in a different conference.

Hawaii adds the extra game and the glamour, but also adds unwanted travel. New Mexico dominates its state and has a great and well followed basketball program. Their arena seats 18,000. Football doesn't have a great history, but CSU was awful before Sonny Lubick who is in his 60s now and isn't likely to be coaching much longer.

One other factor is the divisions. If they decided they wanted the California schools all together, that would move Hawaii up to #2 and CSU up to #3 as New Mexico wouldn't fit well with the NW teams.

sportsgeogoffline, wow. :o thats amazing. thats a crazy amount of information. i love it. ;D

bullet, youre right, academically there probably isnt that big of a difference. i think if the pac10 took nevada, nevada would overrun unlv quickly. thats probably not an issue.

you bring up a very good point about colorado st playing second fiddle to colorado. ive been amazed at the turmoil colorado is going through lately though. they need to get gary barnett out of there. he may be a good coach, but the lack of institutional control can wreck a program. maybe colorado would consider moving to the pac10 for a clean start, but i kinda doubt it. they dont really seem to fit into the pac10's style anyway. so we can probably knock colorado st out of contention.

i like utah. but byu would have to play it cool. they seem like whiners to me (possible bcs exclusion a couple years back).

the problem with hawaii is that it is almost 1000 mi further from seattle than tuscon. they say they will pay for travel expenses, dont they? so maybe the distance isnt as big a problem as it seems. thats a long flight, though.

i think you have nevada or new mexico as the two best bets.

i guess you can add to this boise st.

boise st
academics - tier 3
boise metro population - 400k
stadium - 30k
enrollment - 18k
idaho population - 1.3 million
income per capita - 18k
median income - 37.5k

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