Here are my guesses:

Orange:

#1 vs #2....looks like Oklahoma just needs to win the Big XII title game to lock it up.

#1 USC vs #2 Oklahoma or Auburn


Fiesta:
A solid mathcup would be to take (2) undefeated teams. They can expect a good travel group form Utah for this one.

#3 Oklahoma vs Utah or
Utah vs BC

Longshot: Texas vs Utah
(doubt the BE clause can kick in after all the preseason reassurances that the Big East won't lose it's bid but BC at #21 and Texas at #5 should at least be discussed).


Rose: Get's first dibs and is expected to take the traditional PAC 10 and Big Ten teams.

Cal vs Michigan

Sugar: Gets first dibs after the Rose (will take Cal).
Auburn in this slot if it finishes at #3).

If BC beats Syracuse, they are in. If they lose and WVU beats Pitt, WVU is in. If BC loses and WVU loses, BC is in. The Sugar might be the last spot for them since the other bowls would be locked up. The ACC champ, the winner of Miami vs VPI would get in. The Sugar would love to get Auburn, but it's unlikely they will be able to do so.

Auburn vs Miami/VPI
BC vs Miami/Virginia Tech

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Utah could still go to the Sugar. Heck, they technically could get the Rose still yet, and even the Orange (National Championship :o)

Not likely though.

Predictions:

Orange:

USC vs. Oklahoma

(Auburn also likely)

Rose:

Michigan vs. Cal

Fiesta:

Utah vs. Boston College (or if Oklahoma drops behind Auburn, but doesn't lose)

Oklahoma vs. Boston College

Sugar:

Miami/Va Tech vs. Auburn

(or if Auburn exceeds Oklahoma, and Oklahoma doesn't lose):

Miami/Va Tech vs. Utah

Other scenarios, which would lead to a BCS meltdown, is if Iowa State (or Colorado) beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship: (who takes 8-4 Iowa State or 8-4 Colorado), and can you imagine Iowa State and Utah in the BCS in the same year. Wo! Then what happens to 1-loss Oklahoma? Would they bump out Utah or any other Top 6 team? What happens to Cal or Texas' BCS chances.

Same thing with Auburn if they lose to Tennessee in the SEC Champ game? What happens to one-loss Auburn and Cal, and Texas BCS chances and also Utah's as well.

Cal could lose to USM. Oklahoma and Auburn could lose, Texas could lose. Would a USC vs. Utah National Championship Orange Bowl happen? The shocker of all college sports matchups?

A lot of things could still happen. I think Utah is assured at 6, even if Oklahoma, or Auburn, or Cal, or Texas, or even USC lose. They should move up some if these teams drop down.

Oklahoma loses to Iowa State
Auburn loses to Tenn.
USC loses to Notre Dame
Texas loses to Tx AM

A dream come true.

Or, more likely, USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all go undefeated and the person who doesn't get to go to the national championship game is going to make lawsuits.

If this were to happen, the BCS would likely look like:

Orange:
USC (still #1 with a loss) vs Utah (#5)

Rose:
Michigan vs Boise St. (#6)

Sugar:
Tennessee vs Miami/VA Tech

Fiesta:
Iowa St vs Boston College

Who's out: Cal (#2), Oklahoma (#3), Auburn (#4).
Why? If a non-BCS conference school finishes in the top 6 they get an at-large bid. If Boise moved up to #6 and Utah to #5, it would bump the runner-ups including Cal who might very well be #2, #3 and #4 in the BCS rankings.

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I think that the BCS is mandated to have #1 play #2...and that, if necessary, the conference(s) involved would relinqiuish their automatic bid for that season...

The thought of Utah fans in New Orleans is amusing.

Actually, they do drink on road trips. There's and old tale told by Wyoming fishing guides:

If you have two Mormons as clients, better stock a 6 pack of beer. If it's one, make it a case.

Moved to BCS Banter Forum: 1/4/2004

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