What follows are four posts with snapshots of information related to several schools I've heard discussed here and elsewhere as candidates for inclusion in an all-sports line up with the current BE football conference. As always, this is intended as a resource and reference for the discussions here and at other threads and boards. NOTHING IS INTENDED TO SUGGEST SCHOOL 'A' IS CLEARLY BETTER THAN SCHOOL "B", ETC. I only called these rankings to call your attention and to suggest there is value in comparing figures for partial arguments. I will say that after doing some investigating I've altered my tune, somewhat, on what I'd prefer the conference adopt if indeed heading toward a 10 or 12 member format.

Where you see BE or NBE that represents the value for the 8 members set to play BE football in 2005:
Syracuse
Pitt
WVU
Rutgers
UConn
Louisville
Cincinnati
South Florida

For those curious, Fordham has been suggested (humorously?) in the imagination that they could use the Jets proposed stadium in Manhattan and allow the conference a NYC foothold. I wanted to see how they shakedown next to the others.

Miami of Ohio was not included as that appeared too close to CIncinnati for comfort.

Thhis also assumes we all know the merits and realities of involving ND, PSU or the acadamies.

I'll offer my own insights and observations later.

Men's Football

This would be the strongest reason for expansion: It invites balanced conference schedules and would aid the conference in standing apart from the rest of the non-BCS field.

Average Attendance

School	Stad_Capacity	2004_Att	1996 - 2004
ECU	43,000	30,684	33,652
Memphis	62,380	41,175	30,280
Marshall	38,019	25,933	26,944
So Miss	33,000	28,964	26,049
Toledo	26,248	24,025	24,758
Tulane	69,767	22,829	23,559
UCF	70,188	19,952	22,132
Delaware	22,000	21,055	20,088
Ohio	24,000	15,979	18,917
UAB	83,091	20,606	18,820
Temple	66,592	16,456	15,708
Umass	17,000	8,838	9,978
Fordham	7,000	4,008	4,222
NBE Average	50275	36,795	36,045

No one is going to help the conference raise the overall average attendance, but some clearly standout. Take into account the potential for improvement based upon a "move up" in conference and national perception and several candidates appear worthy fits, at least

Performance 1996-2004

	W Percent	Win. Sea.	Bowl Apps.
Marshall	0.803	8	7
Delaware	0.707	7
Toledo	0.694	9	3
Southern Miss.	0.648	9	7
Massachusetts	0.583	7
Tulane	0.490	4	2
UAB	0.480	3	1
East Carolina	0.471	4	3
UCF	0.455	4	0
Fordham	0.445	3
Memphis	0.427	3	2
Ohio	0.412	3	0
Temple	0.227	0	0

Win Sea = Winning Seasons in this time frame
Bowl App = # of bowl appearances

Obviously Delware, Fordham and UMass did not go to any bowl games as their 1-AA schools. However UD and UMass have won AA national titles within this time frame and often finished atop their conference.

Men's Basketball

Clearly the anchor sport of the conference no matter what moves are made for football.
Average Attendance

School	2004_Att	2000 - 2004
Memphis	15,432	15,432
Temple	5,782	5,782
ECU	5,307	5,307
Toledo	5,292	5,292
UAB	4,909	4,909
Ohio	4,514	4,514
Delaware	4,436	4,436
Marshall	4,434	4,434
So Miss	3,683	3,683
Umass	3,192	3,192
Fordham	2,105	2,105
UCF	1,884	1,884
Tulane	1,759	1,759
NBE Average	11,794	11,180

RPI Rankings
(From Ken Pomrey)

	2000-2004		2004
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Temple	0.567	62	0.535	100
Memphis	0.563	69	0.596	32
UAB	0.541	97	0.596	33
Toledo	0.527	111	0.540	91
So Miss	0.525	118	0.516	123
Delaware	0.521	122	0.511	130
Umass	0.514	132	0.486	174
Ohio	0.513	134	0.457	231
Marshall	0.508	144	0.499	150
Tulane	0.500	153	0.483	181
UCF	0.493	164	0.565	62
ECU	0.486	175	0.498	151
Fordham	0.473	203	0.466	211
NBE Average	0.575	61.225	0.588	54.625

Varsity Athletic Department Budgets

- Information from the US Dept. of Education
- Represents reporting year 03-04
- Figures represent millions of dollars

	Basketball		Football		All Sports
	Revenue	Expenses	Revenue	Expenses	Revenue	Expenses
Temple	2.92	2.92	7.98	7.98	22.75	22.75
Memphis	5.26	3.94	4.88	6.20	22.50	22.50
Tulane	1.61	0.86	6.45	3.02	20.63	12.16
UCF	0.23	0.74	1.74	5.36	18.90	19.15
ECU	1.12	1.58	5.89	5.84	18.35	18.95
Umass	1.15	2.54	0.75	3.81	18.01	18.65
So Miss	0.79	1.26	4.85	5.64	16.69	15.95
Marshall	1.07	1.25	5.43	4.32	16.46	15.79
UAB	1.77	1.62	5.16	5.12	15.45	15.45
Fordham	1.58	1.50	3.43	3.26	13.62	13.09
Delaware	1.25	1.05	4.69	3.25	13.25	13.16
Ohio	1.05	0.98	3.34	3.32	12.95	12.94
Toledo	0.61	1.13	1.34	4.49	2.12	15.13
BE Avg	6.76	3.27	10.58	8.40	32.34	30.68

Institutional comparisons

	Undergrads	I_Type	Market	Metro Pop (>12 yo)
UCF	25,819	U/M	Orlando	1,360,200
Temple	18,830	U/M	Philadelphia	4,334,000
Massachusetts	17,719	LG	Springfield	533,700
East Carolina	16,935	HN	Greenville	489,300
Ohio	16,011	HC	NA
Memphis	15,209	U/M	Memphis	1,037,400
Delaware	14,816	LG	Wilmington	577,700
Toledo	13,773	U/M	Toledo	518,500
Southern Miss.	11,768	HN	Hattiesburg
Marshall	8,277	HN	Huntington	271,400
UAB	7,723	U/M	Birmingham	858,000
Tulane	5,850	Pvt*	New Orleans	1,079,300
Fordham	5,027	Pvt	NYC	15,283,100
NBE Avg.	17,050			1,520,000

Undergrads = Total full time undergraduate enrollment for 03-04 year
I_Type = Classification of institution
U/M - Urban Land Grant or metropolitan research institution w/doctoral degree programs
LG - Land Grant/ State Flagship institution w/doctoral degree programs
HN - Historic Normal (teaching) institution w/masters programs, some doctoral
Pvt - Private institution w/doctoral degree programs
HC - Historic Comprehensive research institution with some doctoral degree programs
* - Member of American Association of Universities (AAU) national research affiliation
Market = Affiliated metro market
Metro Pop = metro area population above age 12


Clearly the smaller schools like Fordham and Tulane will not command their metro markets. Further, schools like WVU and ECU are likely to draw interests outside their own smaller markets.

The prospect ND playing at Giants one game per yearevery year and playing 3 -4 bE games per year.Add to that ND will Navy in Baltimore every other year and likely play Army at the Meadowlands every other year.This is the basis for BE expansion.Next the academies will need to add 3-4 games per year with BE teams.

Great data Gunnerfan!

Below is a list of I-AA schools based on number of students (there is definitely an argument that your undergraduate enrollment is a more relevant measure for fb support-however, I happen to have the total enrollment data). I listed the top 40 as Montana who is often mentioned is #40 (Montana St. is #41).

Enrollment
1 Northeastern 29,712
2 California-Davis 28,269
3 Massachusetts 24,062
4 Sacramento State 23,319
5 Penn 22,469
6 Southern Illinois 21,873
7 Texas State 21,302
8 Illinois State 21,183
9 Northern Arizona 18,817
10 SW Missouri State 18,718
11 Harvard 18,556
12 Cornell 18,449
13 Delaware 18,015
14 Stony Brook 17,205
15 Eastern Kentucky 16,391
16 Albany 16,000
17 Cal Poly-SLO-s 15,477
18 Western Kentucky 15,335
19 Towson State 14,696
20 Fordham 14,611
21 Youngstown State 14,501
22 Portland State 14,486
23 Weber State 14,447
24 Georgia Southern 14,191
25 Western Illinois 12,877
26 Sam Houston State 12,800
27 Northern Iowa 12,717
28 SF Austin State 12,493
29 New Hampshire 12,397
30 Georgetown 12,321
31 Indiana State 12,181
32 Hofstra 11,998
33 Appalachian State 11,641
34 Eastern Illinois 11,395
35 James Madison 11,354
36 Maine 11,343
37 Rhode Island 11,280
38 Villanova 11,039
39 Yale 10,844
40 Montana 10,828

A little too much time on our hands, Gunner? ;D

I think these numbers can be misleading . . . sort of like setting your direction by looking in the rear view mirror. For example, Army has great attendance numbers - as good as anyone on the list - but they make no sense as a candidate for a top shelf all-sports conference.

IMO, commitment is far more important than past performance. Build it & they will come.

I remain convinced that UMass & Delaware are the two best prospects for BE expansion - IF they make the commitment. If you look back before their decision to go I-A, you could have found attendance numbers for UConn similar to UMass - & a small stadium. The only difference is that the performance of the UConn team on the field wasn't as good as UMass has been.But once the commitment was made, everything changed. I don't think anyone now doubts that the UConn addition was a good decision & that they will be very successful.

It's all about the vision thing.

TS2,
Okay, we get it. Seriously, we hear where you're coming from. Again. Should we just turn the board off, then?

Bullett,
Thanks. I stuck with full time undergrad as a way of filtering that whole "commuter school" concept. Neither is an absolute concerning the issue of fan support, this just happened to be the batch of apples I had easy access to!

Friar,
Let's just say I needed a distraction the past couple of days, plus I've had the attendance stats on hand since, well, a good while.

I understand your concerns, and as I hinted this isn't some end-all-be-all analysis. I agree potential and committment goes a long way, longer than anything I've collected here.

I'm with you in the Delaware/UMass camp, a staunch supporter of building as much as possible within the northeastern footprint. This thread was built out of my wanting to know some things of how those AA schools compared to the other more popular candidates to help with my own discussions. I also wanted to see how Delaware and UMass compared to each other in the event the BE would/could only grow one AA school. Off the cuff I now think there's more potential in UMass especially given their larger statewide market, despite Delaware's appearing poised for an easier transition.

I think that market thing has a crucial angle I'm learning more about. Though there's no scientific formula for this obviously some value is discerned from a school's immediate metro area and their ability to draw attention from the state and the region. In this respect, I don't see So Miss or Marshall being able to provide an net increase in revenue to the BE coffers unless as #12 and bringing a championship game with them. Other things I learned:

- UAB appears better equipped to grow than I previously suspected, but their student population is considerably lower than anticipated;
- I did not know ECU drew that well for such comparably poor basketball, but they've only played CUSA bball for a few years now;
- Toledo looks deserving of more consideration. Another "Louisville lite" in potential but certainly appearing to fit the general BE mode;
- Temple must be their own worst enemy because they have all the trappings of a school capable of matching Pitt and Cincy in the athletic program department.

Information is what you make of it and I simply wanted to see some of these figures for myself in this context. I've also made clear that if/when this type of expansion is proposed it should be with conditions and standards to ensure everyone matches the level of committment expected. But the potential is there. For all my want to see ECU "rescued" from this CUSA line-up, I'd rank my expected nominees to fall like so:

Memphis
UMass
Temple/Delaware
Toledo/ECU
Marshall

Now, five years from now all bets are off.... ;D

Gunner, I hope you know that I was just teasing you. :) Your work was much appreciated. I'll reply to your post after I've had a chance to digest it.

FriarFan

I thought expansion items were based on some reality.If Umass or Delaware were going 1A they would be going toward the MAC not the BE.If the BE want Memphis they could have had them.Last week the the story on ND playing 1 game per year at the Meadowlands.This is certainly an important part of the BE football expansion.

I have a quick rule of thumb with commuter schools. Divide the total student population by 2 in order to compare with other schools. If you look at attendance for Houston vs. Texas Tech or Minnesota (semi-commuter) vs. Wisconsin you will see what I mean.


And since I have total students handy:
Central Florida 38598
Temple 32351
Massachusetts 24062
Toledo 20889
East Carolina 20577
Ohio 20528
Memphis 19797
Delaware 18015
Alabama-Birmingham 15579
Southern Mississippi 15267
Fordham 14611
Marshall 13788
Tulane 12759

UAB is still not that big.

One team not mentioned that might become a possibility is Northern Illinois. Chicago is a very tempting market, especially after a split. If NIU continues to improve they could become a contender.

I would say size makes Fordham, UAB, Tulane, USM and Marshall non-contenders. Geography doesn't help the last 4 (3 too far away, 1 too close to WVU). Even USM's continued fb competitiveness doesn't offset their other weakenesses.

I think UCF's and Ohio U.'s recent lack of success makes them non-contenders now, but 5 years could change that.

That leaves ECU, Memphis, Toledo, Temple, Delaware and UMass. One of those schools just got kicked out and 2 are I-AA with no intention of going I-A now.

The lack of candidates tells me 10 is a better number now than 12.

Your numbers support the idea that Memphis should be #9. I agree on the NE base and this #10 should be a northeastern team. UMass just has more potential than Delaware. Since Temple just got kicked out, they don't seem likely to be re-admitted soon. I think the BE should tell UMass they can get in if they can put together the necessary finances. That committment could help UMass get the necessary committments.

So:
1. Memphis
2. UMass
3. Temple (my choice-BE probably has them #13 of 13)
4. ECU

I think its critical the BE shore up eastern bb (I'm assuming a split from the bb schools) and maintain themselves as one of the "Big 6" bb conferences. Football may be the main money sport, but in the short run bb is important. And I think the CUSA has shown that strong bb can help fb. And there is noone who guarantees anything in fb right now.

One other item in their thinking (see MWC for how not to do it) is future divisions in a 12 team conference. Do you have 6 traditional eastern teams (UConn, SU, Rutgers, WVU, Pitt + 1 other) or do you think of Cincy, UL, WVU and Pitt as one group and SU, UConn & Rutgers as the other and work from there? In the first case you only add one other eastern team. In the 2nd you may add several or you may put ECU, UCF & USF with the eastern schools.

They may also want to think about whether as a strategy they want to challenge the SEC, ACC or Big 10 as opposed to looking at individual schools. The current BE is challenging the Big 10 with ND, DePaul & Marquette. In that scenario, you are looking for MAC teams to grow. Maybe you add NIU, WMU and Toledo along with one other school.

Yes lets downgrade the BE football league by adding a whole series of teams from 1AA or the MAC.

Wait, don't Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida qualify as I-AA/MAC?

Wasn't Cincinnati a charter member of the MAC and a I-AA member as recently as 1983?

Isn't Louisville a member of the MAC?

Wasn't South Florida a member of I-AA as recently as 2000?