I dont see Ucf going anywhere for 5 years.... If the BE is going to be the auto team for the new bowl look at the gator...Citrus is a long shot.

Newest prediction, there will be a shortage of crow in America when every one has a plate to consume with all the predictions of Big East losing BCS status. Otherwise myself included should be a small per centage if it goes the other way in 2010.

If the Gator has survived by taking the second place Big East and second place ACC team, it will do even better by having the Big East champion and a BCS at large team if selected as the 5th BCS bowl.

Example a WVU BE champ versis at large Florida BCS team or Pittsburgh BE champ versis at large Georgia team or a Louisville BE champ versis an at large Florida State BCS team or gasp UCF fans a South Florida BE champ versis an at large Ohio State team. With these type of projected matchups, can we say attendance and TV ratings should sore if the Gator bowl moves up to BCS status.

I realize I'm late getting on board, but I'll venture a guess at these:

1. Which conference will be the next to add a team?

I'm going along with the party line and saying Conference USA.

2. Which will be the next to lose one?

Again, sticking with the party line, I will say the WAC. This discounts the possibility of the MAC or Sun Belt losing members due to new I-A regulations.

3. Which team will move? Or will a team move or down?

In the end, I think it will be Louisiana Tech that moves. Of course, this is according to my own logic, which is so often wrong. ;D

4. What bowl will get the 5th BCS spot?

It's looking like the Gator, which I think will cause a minor upheaval in the second-tier bowls, with the ACC and Big East needing to find homes for their #2 slots... the ACC's may be particularly interesting to other bowls.

5. How many times in the first cycle will a team not currently in the BCS get a bid?

If the cycle is five years, I'll say once or twice... not enough times to make it a regular thing, but enough to "keep things quiet". I may be a conspiracy theorist, but it may be quite possible that the means of determining the bowl slots will change.

6. Will the new BE be able to keep its bid, or will the "BE rule" finally catch up with them?

I think the Big East keeps its bid easily. It is still fairly solidly the #6 conference, and BCS standings will be fine for the remaining teams. There is no Miami to pin a loss on nearly everyone every year, and that will help in polling standing and of course in the loss column. I still think that the Big East may go to ten teams for football somehow, but that's more my own "need" for symmetry across conferences than anything else. I think the BE should go to at least nine for scheduling purposes. (i.e. four home and four away conference games every year)

Cusa will invite Utep... and set off the next small round of changes...

I see the BE breaking up into 2 conferences after 5 years. The 8 FB schools will add 1 team. Either E Carolina or the hottest team from the MAC. Memphis is just to far geographicly from the BE, even though they fit for everything else. However, if they win C-USA in FB and get their BB back on track, they might have a chance anyway.

FBfan

I think a 1-A school actually in a conference is going to drop football before the Big East breaks up. Let's just say that I know the way there. Let's also just say that the conference they're in will end up at eight schools and will strongly desire a new addition. The addition may as well be chosen with a series of coin flips among several relatively-less-than-desirable schools, unless they can drag a 1-AA power into the fold.

Well Pounder,

S'pose you would be referring to SJ St. and the WAC.
(Since the WAC currently has 9, MWC does too, but MWC schools are stronger financially)

Where would the WAC look for additional schools, if not 1-AA ? I don't think the SBC schools are interested.
Denver ? Div. 1, but no football. I think the WAC would try to entice either Big Sky or Big West teams to move up.

If the WAC were to lose enough members (e.g. Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State), a "merger" with the Sun Belt football schools might seem somewhat plausible (in accordance with the use of evenly distributed geographic divisions and/or the maintenance of an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament)...

"Sun West" Conference

East: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Troy

West: Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State and any three of the following: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, (San Jose State)

These teams are waiting in the wings, all having DIA desires eventually:

UCDavis (stadium expansion plans )
Cal Poly (stadium expansion plans)
Sacramento State (Stadium expansion plans)
Portland State
Montana
Montana St (if Montana moves up)
N. Arizona
North Dakota State
North Dakota (if NDSU moves up)

Pounder,

We could both be right, and dave, Ouija and others as well. All I know about SJ St is what I have read on this board, or its links. Thanks for the info.

Lash,
My comments about the BE breaking up have nothing to do with any prediction of its demise. The BCS does NOT care about the BB schools. The BE FB 8 plus a good FB school that expands its footprint would be more desireable than those 8 plus a bunch of bb schools. ND would like the split, since it could stay with the BB schools and still be independant in FB. The question then becomes: Who gets the name Big East and who gets the auto bid? The next question is: Since the split will create an additional conference that WILL qualify for a NCAA bid in 3 years, what will that do to the brackets?

Predictions anyone?

FBfan

FB Fan -

You're right - all of this is sort of idle speculation. We can only educate ourselves as to what we might expect, based upon recent behavior.

During all the 2003 conference shuffling, I could see the possibility of the WAC and SBC merging, with the WAC becoming the west division, and the SBC becoming the east.

But then the SBC enticed a number of move-ups and shed it's western teams to the WAC (Utah St., NM St., Idaho) and added FAU and FIU to try to become a more regional conference in the southest. If they shed Denver, that will be complete and the SBC will be at 12, with 8 D-IA FB teams + WKU who plays D-IAA FB.

The WAC has largely rationalized their geography (frankly at this point, both the conference and La Tech would probably like to see Tech depart, but Tech is holding out for CUSA, and that opening might not occur until some CUSA teams depart for the BE, or UTEP moves to the MWC). The WAC could be decimated, if the PAC and MWC went to 12. If that doesn't happen, who out west would be candidates for the WAC ?

I'd say look to the Big Sky, or the Great West FB conference for your future WAC candidates.

If the BE Splits (I personally hope they do), that would mean another Div I BB conference, and a good one at that. Even if their champ isn't immediately granted qualifying status, several teams will grab at-large berths to the big dance. So what happens after the "new" conference is in existence for long enough to be granted an automatic spot into the bracket ?

Look what happened when the MWC split off from the WAC. The big boys who run the show didn't want to sacrifice an at-large spot to make room for the MWC champ. So they added a 65th team, and made 64 vs. 65 a preliminary play-in game. There is your precedent. Expect the tourney to expand to 66 and force 66 vs. 63 into a preliminary play-in game.

Metro -

exactly ! If the PAC goes to 12, they take 2 from WAC or MWC; If the MWC goes to 12, they take however many teams they need from WAC and / or possibly UTEP from CUSA.

If this happens in rapid succession, the WAC loses 4-5 teams VERY QUICKLY. They likely are:
Boise St., Fresno St., Hawaii, Nevada (-4). And I would guess UTEP moves from CUSA to MWC.

This creates a CUSA opening for La. Tech.

The following WAC teams are left hanging:
San Jose St.
Idaho
Utah St.
NM St.

The WAC might be forced to fold, due to a problem with minimum number of members together for minimum duration.

And the Big Sky will look like a very comfy landing spot.
Idaho would be the best fit.
Utah St. next
NM St. is a reach, geographically
SJ St. might rather look at a football-less future in the Big West.

Again --- shoot all the holes in this scenerio that you want, it's very speculative, but if the PAC and MWC suddenly decide to expand, I think these may be the ramifications.

I have a romanticism to having the Big Sky absorb WAC leftovers, though I guarantee New Mexico State would go back to the Sun Belt.

However, and I must emphasize that I strongly believe this...

(1) The Pac-10 will not go to 12 with Mountain West schools for at least 25 years. If they go to 12 before then, just totally fuhgeddaboutdit. This assumes that they go to 12 at all, for which I have more serious doubts.

(2) The Mountain West has no earthly reason to go to 12. If they go 10, it's only because either Fresno finally meets their demands, or TCU needs a travel rival, or by some fluke of nature, Boise State actually maintains their football level for 5 years. I don't see an expansion for at least 5 years. Frankly, I think they see Boise as a last resort.

(3) Therefore, there's going to be a WAC. Oddly, the WAC might be motivated to go 12 for reasons of cutting travel costs.

I think the pressure on Montana to move up becomes greater over time. If they do, this fractures the Big Sky, loosens a couple other schools for WAC membership, and remnants of that + the Great West becomes the replacement 1-AA conference. I'm curious to see whether Sac State (possibly yes) and Portland State (possibly not) still have football programs by the time that happens... if it happens, of course.

I'm not going to rate who moves up, because I also believe that 1-A will at least maintain the 15,000 attendance number for schools trying to rise from 1-AA. Montana obviously surpasses this, and Montana State is closest to being the next school to do so. Sacramento State and Portland State obviously have the potential, and Sac might be devoting the resources, while Portland State is beginning to focus on a basketball arena (the basketball team finally won a Big Sky regular season, and they finally started to sell out 1,500-seat Stott Center) rather than solve a nagging football attendance problem that is "growing" rather than improving. Northern Arizona built themselves into the wrong dome design, otherwise they have potential as well. Eastern Washington expanded their football stadium before last season, and there were a couple gates good enough to indicate that they didn't expand enough, and they have space, but they have to fill for Sac State the way they do for Montana. Weber State is not in the right market, though they have the facilities. Idaho State has no chance.

Thing is, I think UC Davis has a better chance to make a move than Sac State. Their football facility proposal is better than Sacramento's. Their basketball facility is already better, though the proposed new Sac facility probably trumps it. They are close enough to Sac to take a chunk of that market PLUS have more respect in the broader reaches of Northern California, and they are far enough away to not be subject to commuter school issues. Now, if the state would have seen fit to throw some resources to Chico State, we wouldn't be having this conversation, but I digress...