Pounder -

Thoughtful analysis.

I must comment on the 15,000 attendance criteria, however. Hard to say what the ultimate resolution will be (meaningless guideline with no teeth, or rigidly enforced). But the writing seems to be on the wall that the former may prevail, not just for grandfathered 1-A schools, but for recent move-ups to 1-AA as well.

Peoples' exhibit A and B: FAU and FIU of the Sunbelt
(It's absolutely A JOKE to insist that these schools are currently worthy of "big-time" football status. These schools may grow at a fairly rapid rate and be of mid-major status in a decade, but right now they are in clear violation of the 15,000 criteria). The schools and the SBC are just trying to encourage everyone to "look the other way".

I personally think the 15,000 criteria will fade away - frankly it is arbitrary (and that in itself may flunk the legal test). Truly the BCS schools seem to want to craft a line, which acts as a legal separation between those schools that are part of the BCS club, and those schools which the BCS is trying to prevent from ever staking a claim to the BCS goodies ($$$). This 15,000 criteria isn't quite working properly, and the BCS schools have lost interest in the dividing line between 1-A and 1-AA. The only concern is maintaining the staus quo between BCS and Non-BCS.

So - since this is a "Predictions" thread, I'm betting that the 15,000 rule will not be enforced, and perhaps replaced by a new criteria. This new one might be something on the order of: "A Div 1-A team must demonstrate a financial commitment to it's athletic program, that only a BCS member school can afford" (without overtly saying it in those words)....

I know that's rather cynical, but college sports is a business, and many of the people that run it act as though money is the over-riding concern, not some altruistic love of interscholastic sport.

Everyone seems so focused on I-A, that they are forgetting I-AA. And I-AA is not insignificant. Here is a prediction that will be aimed straight at I-AA: The A-10 will collapse and the Colonial will take its place in football. I've already seen some evidence supporting this conclusion in papers on Richmond, the CAA, the Patriot League, and the A-10. How this will affect Temple, Maine, UMass, and New Hampshire will be very interesting. Villanova also bears watching.

DawgNDuckFan,
Not to discount your prognasticative abilities but the A-10 handing off management of the football league has been a coordinated move ever since Northeastern announced they'd join the Colonial AA (next year?). When that happens, 6 of the members in the A-10 football conference will actually be members of the Colonial, making them the conference most represented. Since the A-10 has only managed this league for 4-7 years (it was the Yankee Football Conference), they had no problem handing it off since only 2-3 of those teams are true A-10 members anyway.

Dave,
The biggest supporters of the 15,000 attendance measure isn't the BCS schools, it's the AA schools and conferences looking for stability among their own kind. From a financial standpoint programs that come close to that figure stand to make more money in 1-A than in AA, which is why so many have recently made the jump. (And why programs like Rice, Tulane and SJSU have suggested dropping to DII instead of AA if they were to drop down at all. Jumping from 63 to 85 scholarships isn't that different in terms of costs to the school. Going from 63 to none, however, provides a notable cost savings.)

The 15k mark was then presented as a replacement for the previous stadium capacity standard and measures for accounting tickets sold as opposed to actual butts in the seats. Those marks, both new and old, were designed to insure financial stability among members and allow programs in both A and AA to better program their budgets according to their status. Without that formal requirement more and more programs (it's feared) would rather make 1-A money as Michigan's homecoming team than waddle along like the majority of AA programs that lose money.

Back to the point, I agree that there will be some change to this standard based on legal reasoning. But the BCS schools have less interest in it... for now.

Nrthrn95, good you noted these, and I agree with you on each of these except for one: Marshall may end up being a good C-USA fit. The geography is not extreme, and athletically, they appear compatible, primarily in football.
The three others, do come across as "stretches" and cases could be given that each could/should have stayed in the conferences they were in.
I have reservations as to Marshall ending up in an expanded BE anytime soon, and the competition in C-USA may be just a tad more of a higher profile (at least potentially) than the MAC, if not, a greater degree of diversity. The MAC is so heavily concentrated in Ohio and Michigan, that any school outside those parameters may tend to keep an eye open for other possibilites if/when they ever exist (Northern Illinois?--in & out & back in).
I recognize C-USA has expanded westward and now has a major Texas/Oklahoma dimension. However, there are still a few eastwardly and central south schools maintaining themselves in the conference.
I tend to favor UTEP as having stayed in the WAC, and maybe, N. Texas joined them. LA Tech is more geographically suitable for C-USA. Of course we heard UTEP's reasons for being more associated with their Texas brethern. But TCU bolted to the MWC, hoping for bigger things, yet leaving their Texas compatriates. Go figure? A mixture of inconsistent rationales we all heard.

The 15K rule has been so vulnerable to multiple interpretations and manipulation that it has proved almost useless. And, if Div. I is not sticking to their guns then what else is subject to be challenged? Perhaps the 15K rule was not appropriate in the first place, but criteria needs to be distinct, consistently measurable, reasonable, properly monitored, and enforced methodically with a clear and unwavering appeals process. Otherwise, some can be damaged by the confusion.

Actually Gunner, I was referring to a complete collapse of the A10. Not just for football, but all-sports. Could be a real possibility if the Colonial decides to join in with the Big East in raiding the A10 for basketball schools.

DnD -

Well the CAA is now at 12 schools (6 Fb, 6 not) + 5 or 6 schools (depending on Richmond) from all over, that formerly played FB in the A-10. How can the CAA expand further at this point ?

The A-10 may be ripped to shreds if and when the Big East splits. At that time, we might assume that the BE FB 8 will go their own way, and pick up a few schools (Who knows ? - Temple, Memphis, ECU, UCF, Marshall, Army, Navy, ND, Toledo, Ohio U ???? you're guess is as good as mine).

The remaining BB schools - 8 Catholic schools (if ND stays with them) could expand by raiding the A-10 (maybe Xavier, St. Louis, Dayton, primarily whoever's BB stature is looking good at that moment, and/or whoever brings a major TV market).

Since the A-10 is currently at 14, they may withstand losing a few schools, or the remaining schools may jump on an opportunity to go their own ways with members of the AE, Patriot, CAA, MAAC... incredibly hard to predict, but the BE split will be what puts all of this into motion.

The A-10 right now seems bloated mish-mash of schools that might be on the cusp of 1-A, and some other schools that seem to be riding the gravy train. The most painless method of effecting a divorce, would be for the better schools to depart, and leave the ne'er do wells behind. But that might entail wrangling over NCAA BB tourney $$units, (which might partly have explained why the BE has not yet split).


Gunner - thanks fo the info on the 15,000 thing. It may make sense that it is actually more of a concern from the 1-AA perspective that from the BCS boys (who don't seem to mind seeing it fade away). Until we see any semblance of enforcement, I'm betting it goes away.

The A-14 would need to lose several teams in order to completely collapse, and I'm not sure that the BIG EAST, "Football EAST," and CAA would be able to absorb enough of them for the conference to completely collapse...

The MAAC is now down to 5, since Siena dropped football. Duquesne and LaSalle are 2 of those, yet they are in the A-10 for other sports. Rumor had them inquiring about moving their football to the Patriot.

Rumor also has Richmond (A-10) deciding between CAA and Patriot for their football after 2006.

On the non-scholarship side (1-AAA is it ?), we have Patriot, MAAC, NothEast, and Pioneer. I predict the MAAC football disappears, and the 5 now in it move to the Patriot or NorthEast.

Teams in strange places now that might consider moving might be:

Duquesne (A-10, MAAC)
LaSalle (A-10, MAAC)
Albany (AE, NorthEast)
Stony Brook (AE, NorthEast)
Georgetown (BE, Patriot)
Fordham (A-10, Patriot)
Richmond (A-10) if they want to go the non-scholarship route.
Dayton (A-10, Pioneer)
Butler (Horizon, Pioneer)
Valpo (Mid-Con, Pioneer)
Jacksonville (A-Sun , Pioneer)
Davidson (SoCon, Pioneer)

If MAAC FB collapses, Marist, St. Peters, and Iona will need a new FB home.

We could have a bit of movement among Eastern non-scholarship schools..... there are enough floaters out there to create a new conference.

The A-14 only makes sense for its membership as a top 10 basketball conference.

Its not clear how many members a basketball only Big East conference would take. I suspect Dayton and Xavier to the Big East. They would make a geographical bridge between DePaul/Marquette and the East Coast schools. St. Louis would also make sense in the Big East. What about Charlotte or Richmond? UMass?

Why would Charlotte stay in the A-10 if all the bigger programs left? I guess the A-10 could lose UD, XU, SLU, and reaload with one East Coast program like ECU if they leave to the Big East FB only. That would bring the A-10 membership back to 12 with North/South divisions. Probably a better alternative for Charlotte than going back to the Sun Belt.

Something has got to give. The repeated assumptions that the 1AA designation will be removed clashes with the 15k attendance rule. I am assuming that the posters who say that the 1AA desingation will go away are also predicting that the 15k rule will go with it. They may be wishfully dreaming about 1AA demise because they don't want their favorite team demoted to it. ;)

My prediction. LOL. If the distinction between 1A and 1AA is done away with, the 15k attendance, 30k stadium, and 200 scholarship rules will be dropped as well. ;) ;D

My slightly out on a limb. If the above happens, something else will be put into place to seperate BCS for 1AA. It probably would not be a seperate official classification or division, but it would have that effect.
Also, the line will probably be drawn closer to the current BCS schools criteria than it is now.

FBfan 12 March '05

This is as much question as prediction, but this is the closest thread I could think of. The answer to the question would be a prediction. ;) ;)

Yesterday (March 14, '05) I heard a local sports-talk host say that the play-in game for the Big Dance was between the conference champs with the lowest RPI for that year. I had thought that the 2 conferences were fixed. This would be important if a new conference got started.

I had planned to predict that when the BE split, that the BB schools would keep the name and the automatic bid, but that the FB schools would keep all of the points that they had earned. In 3 years the FB East would easily qualify for an automatic bid. I was going to predict that the at large bids would be reduced by 1. Now I am not so sure. If the FB East and a low major conference were organized about the same time, would the NCAA simply make 2 play in games for the 4 conferences with the lowest RPI? If this happened, the new low major conference would be in a play-in game, while the new FB East would get an auto-bid.

FBfan

That depends. The NCAA could get away with simply awarding the new conference an automatic berth, as both conferences would easily be represented: No real net loss of representation. However, precendence has been established with the play-in game. How could the NCAA give an automatic berth to a new league while leaving many established leagues to contest for the privledge? The best hope might be to see another trickle down effect from realignment eliminate one (or more) conference(s). Either way I can't see either ex-BE faction being left in the cold.

Keep an eye on the make up of D1 ball, too. Several schools are looking to move up from D2, but at the same time changes in AA standards and all this realignment might nudge other schools to drop down.