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PostPosted: Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:25 pm 
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This is the thread to talk about possible changes in the Big 12. :D 8-)


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:31 pm 
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I can see the Big 12 losing one member in the near future: Missouri.

The Big 12 has many options to consider in replacing Missouri. Arkansas, currently an SEC member, has a history with many Big 12 teams. Colorado State, currently an MWC member, also has a history with the Big 12. Then there is Brigham Young University, who's also had a history with the Big 12. Or the Big 12 could be the Big 11. The last possibility and the first possibilities are the least likeliest to occur, IMO. It is doubtful that Colorado State will get in the Big 12 as long as Colorado is around, so I would like to direct your attention to BYU. The Big 12 can replace the St Louis market with the Salt Lake City market with the addition of BYU. Also, this removes one of the biggest obstacles to the BCS survival. BYU has long been a critic of the BCS, but might change their tune if they were in a BCS conference. Food for thought.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Mon Dec 16, 2002 5:34 pm 
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There are currently 63 BCS-level schools (Les Six + ND). When was the last time a non-Les Six school ascended to a BCS conference?

Penn State, Florida State, etc. do not count because they were independents and regularly made major bowls.

Connecticut does not count because they are ascending within the Big East.

In fact, the last time I can think of this happened was 1978, when the Arizona schools joined the Pac-10.

As long as Les Six control the reins, there shall be no ascension.

These shifts you talk about are lateral shifts. For each lateral shift, another must be made to replace the hole.

If Missouri moves to the Big Ten, that conference will have twelve members, but the Big XII will need a replacement. If you replace Missouri with Arkansas, not only does the Big XII become unstable, the SEC needs a team to be replaced. Keep in mind Notre Dame to Big Ten is an extreme long shot now.

Les Six will not let a lesser team into the picture until that team proves it can (1) play with them and (2) bring in the money. If Colorado State can somehow make the BCS in the next few years, it could happen. I thought Louisville would be a feasible candidate, but despite their win over FSU, they failed me this year.

Colorado State would need to run the table and make the BCS, possibly two years in a row. I do not doubt they would have crashed the party had they run the table.

CSU's three losses were to UCLA (7-5), Fresno State (8-5) and UNLV (5-7). UCLA is forgiveable, but the others are not. You cannot lose to non-Les Six if you want to make a vertical move. CSU's non-conference wins are Nevada (5-7), Colorado (9-4) and Virginia (8-5). The last two look good, while the Nevada game was close and needs to be removed.

CSU did good by scheduling three games against Les Six, but it needs to do better. It needs to win all three and then win everything else. Strength of schedule is always going to be a problem playing in the Mountain West, so the meat will have to come from OOC. However, if CSU can run the table, they will rise to the top of the polls, pretty high in the computer rankings, and could get some reductions for beating the Les Six teams.

If CSU can get itself in position to join Les Six, then they can join the Big XII (more obstacles to overcome from CU no doubt) upon Missouri or Iowa State's move to the Big Ten, which would badly need a renaming.

*In the list below, I have Iowa State leaving for the "Big Ten" (give Iowa a rival), CSU to Big XII, TCU replacing Baylor in the Big XII (TCU should have been taken instead of Baylor back in 1996), and Notre Dame joining the Big East.

------Les Six in 2009?------
Atlantic Coast Conference
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Virginia
Wake Forest

Big East Conference
Boston College
Connecticut
Miami FL
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

Midwestern Conference
East
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
West
Illinois
Iowa
Iowa State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Big Twelve Conference
North
Colorado
Colorado State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
South
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Christian
Texas Tech

Pacific Ten Conference
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington State

Southeastern Conference
East
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
West
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Louisiana State
Mississippi
Mississippi State


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Mon Dec 16, 2002 9:40 pm 
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frankly, i think this is the most likely scenario. the only conference that may expand with members beyond the big six is the big east, and they would only do so with a team that has commitments to not only football and basketball but other big east sports like swimming, baseball and soccer. otherwise it's just a matter of switching conferences for better regional matchups.

i personally like the idea of 4 12-team conferences and two 9-teamers, if only because finding 8 new members (to bring the power schools to 72) without watering down competition in the big east and acc might be too difficult. i would like to see the pac ten add another two schools, which could happen under a few scenarios, and would then force the wac and mwc back into an unholy alliance, perhaps to take the regional best of the best and leave the rest to the sun belt.

but you can't get everything you want, and if anything can be said of college football, it's that it has NEVER been neat and tidy. why stop now.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 31, 2002 10:41 am 
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I think Missouri is definitely on the Big 10's short list of candidates to round out the conference, along with Notre Dame (despite the bad blood, money will keep both parties talking), Iowa State, and Pitt. Of these schools, I think Pitt is the one they'll invite.

I don't think the Big 12 will lose any members to the Big 10. If the Big 12 loses anyone, it'll be Texas and/or Texas A&M to the SEC (not likely, but they could probably make more money), or Colorado to the Pac 10 (also unlikely, but they're probably the only school, besides Texas, that the Pac 10 would expand for).






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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 31, 2002 12:08 pm 
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One more thought, if the Big 12 does somehow lose some teams, who would they bring in to replace them? If Missouri or Iowa State go to the Big 10, would the Big 12 consider bringing in a non-BCS like BYU? Seems like the only viable replacements are in the Moutain West Conference. BYU, Colorado State, and possibly Air Force seem like decent fits.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:19 pm 
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I don't see the Big12 falling apart. Our TV contract is second only to the SEC. With the North/South division, travel costs are kept down. I don't see ut going to the SEC b/c of the time zone change, increased travel costs, and would likely have to give up a certain amount of power that it enjoys in the Big12. Plus, the SEC has had so many scandals of late and is not exactly what ut wants to be associated with academically. There has been talk of Mizzou to the Big10 or CU to the Pac10. the other Big8 schools threatened to sue CU if they made such a move. We've got a pretty competitive basketball league, and we had three top 10 teams in football. BYU might be attractive, but they would likely go to the Pac10 before the Big12, IMO. One day TCU might be attractive, but they have a long way to go attendance wise.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2003 9:14 pm 
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Quote:
I don't see the Big12 falling apart. Our TV contract is second only to the SEC. With the North/South division, travel costs are kept down. I don't see ut going to the SEC b/c of the time zone change, increased travel costs, and would likely have to give up a certain amount of power that it enjoys in the Big12. Plus, the SEC has had so many scandals of late and is not exactly what ut wants to be associated with academically. There has been talk of Mizzou to the Big10 or CU to the Pac10. the other Big8 schools threatened to sue CU if they made such a move.

Well that explains why CU hasn't bolted yet, but what about Mizzou? Did the Big 8 schools threaten to sue them if they bolted for the Big 10?


Quote:

We've got a pretty competitive basketball league, and we had three top 10 teams in football. BYU might be attractive, but they would likely go to the Pac10 before the Big12, IMO. One day TCU might be attractive, but they have a long way to go attendance wise.

I seriously doubt that about BYU. BYU is conservative, as I've stated several times before on this forum. The Pac 10 is liberal. Conservatives and liberals get along about as well as cats and dogs. Furthermore, BYU gets a lot of California recruits, just like all the Pac 10 schools do. Think the Pac 10 wants anymore competition for those recruits, especially from a conference member?? I think not.


Last edited by dawgnduckfan on Mon Mar 24, 2003 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2003 10:13 pm 
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I hear that BYU has a lot of alums in California. If the Pac10 were to expand, who else would they want besides possibly Colorado, another school that would then raid Cali. for players?

As for Mizzou, I've only heard rumors. They do have a pretty long rivalry with KU that they'd give up. they'd also lose exposure in Texas for recruiting.... Though Mizzou has some decent football talent, they would need to go out of state (heavily in Texas) to fill out their roster.

With all the NCAA investigations going on in SEC land, you have to look at the Big12 as a pretty viable conference. I suppose the grass might be a bit greener on the other side of the fence for Mizzou or CU, but I don't see what more they'd want. The Texas schools give the north TV ratings and furtile recruiting grounds (Texas produced 360 D-1 football players last year, and that's coming out of HS-- not including JUCOs...). We won a title in baseball last year. Had three teams in the Final Four (if you count women's ball). We have two number one seeds this year and a number two seed.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2003 9:31 am 
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DawgNDuck, you make a good point about Cali competition, but don't you think the Pac 10 would at least make a move on Colorado, assuming that was an option? If they'd bother to go to 11, they might as well go to 12. I assume they'd want the 12th member to bring something useful to the conference without an additional drain on Cali recruits. That doesn't leave many options. Colorado St. is a decent program, but with Colorado already in the fold they don't bring anything special to the table. Then again, they could at least be a more respectable version of Oregon St. The Pac 10 covets the Colorado market, or so I've heard anyway. Adding Colorado St. would nail that market down. It'd also give Colorado an in-state rival in conference (although this probably isn't of great importance to the Buffs, since I don't think they've lobbied for C St. to join the Big 12). The biggest problem with this pairing is Colorado's lack of enthusiam for C St. joining at the same time, and the potential for both programs to raid Cali talent.

BYU (apart from the major cultural probelms between the Pac 10 institutions and BYU) would be a perfect addition. BYU would bring solid basketballa nd football and tremendous fan support and a massive chunk of the Utah tv market, but their ability to raid Cali talent would be limited by the limited appeal of the school. A few more talented recruits would be willing to go to Provo, for football, and probably a few for basketball as well. Enough to improve both squads, but not enough to put a major dent in Cali talent. Perfect for both BYU and the rest of the Pac 10 schools. Apaprt form the cultural problemns between BYU and the Pac 10 though, ther;ed be the package deal factor to consider. Utah would go ape if BYU left for the Pac 10 without them. Maybe BYU could pull it off, I don't know. But Utah is more in the Pac 10 mold than BYU anyway. If the Pac 10 wasn't able to snag Colorado, these schools would be a tremendous addition to the conference. Utah would bring in outstanding basketball and a decent football program. Utah would probably be perennial top 5 in hoops once it joined the Pac 10 (Majeris with lots of talent would be scary), and the football program would have more of an upside than BYU. Cali recruits would be a little more willing to go to Utah I think. Assuming the Pac 10 could swallow the bitter pill of BYU (admittedly that may never happen, especially if Cal has anything to say about it), adding two teams from Utah would add a sizable market (not to mention Mormon viewership all over the west coast), quality basketball, and quality football, without a relatively minor additional drain on Cali talent.

Who makes the decisions in the Pac 10 anyway? Maybe BYU could be the token religious/ultra-conservative school. Every conference needs a black sheep.

Apart from those 4 schools I have no idea who the Pac 10 could add. If you add the concerns about losses in Cali recruiting, that leaves Colorado as a potential 11th member, and that's it. Any other options for a 12th? I don't see one.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2003 9:33 am 
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Btw, none of that is intended as a knock on the Big 12. I thnk the Big 12 is a phenomenal conference, and probably my favorite to watch. That being said, if the SEC makes a tad more money now, imagine what they'd make with Texas and A&M added to the fold. WIth Texas now having such great success in basketball, I doubt this move will happen anytime soon. But the fact that there are any grumblings at all regarding money is a bit surprising.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2003 9:34 am 
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Quote:
I hear that BYU has a lot of alums in California. If the Pac10 were to expand, who else would they want besides possibly Colorado, another school that would then raid Cali. for players?

Who else would the Pac 10 want? Try Utah. Utah is considerably more liberal than BYU. Utah brings in the Salt Lake City market, as BYU would. Utah also is a very good research institution, a quality that the Pac 10 likes it members to have. Although Utah would probably recruit California like BYU would, they are not the household name that BYU is in football, and so Pac 10 schools could tolerate the Utes recruiting California. What makes the Utes a better selection for the Pac 10 over the Cougars is that the Utes would be willing to play on Sundays, something that BYU is very opposed to doing.

Quote:

As for Mizzou, I've only heard rumors. They do have a pretty long rivalry with KU that they'd give up. they'd also lose exposure in Texas for recruiting.... Though Mizzou has some decent football talent, they would need to go out of state (heavily in Texas) to fill out their roster.

Mizzou could play KU OOC. It wouldn't be the same as a conference rivalry, but it would keep the rivalry alive somewhat. Mizzou would lose exposure in Texas, but they would pick up exposure in Illinois and Ohio, which are hotbeds for recruiting talent, by becoming a Big Ten member. Also, I think ABC/ESPN would go nuts if the Big Ten expanded to twelve. ABC would pay megabucks for that conference championship game and would probably up the league contract as well.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2003 9:44 am 
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Re: Utah as 12th

Okay, Colorado and Utah . . . assuming the Utah Legislature would not have ameltdown about Utah going without BYU, those would be great acquisitions. The Pac 10 seems to have geographic symmetry with it's schools (2 no cal, 2 so cal, 2 or, 2 wa, 2 az) which would favor Colorado and C St. or Utah and BYU, but appart form that hang-up, if the state of Utah wouldn't go insane, that'd make a lot of since. Maybe BYU could then go to the Big 12? They'd be a better fit there, at least institutionally.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2003 10:29 am 
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Again with the bad typing, sorry guys.

As far as Missouri to the Big 10 goes, they've been screwed more than any other Big 12 squad when it comes to officiating. How many controversial losses have they had? It's pretty amazing. Maybe they feel they'd get better treatment in the Big 10? I think they could recruit just as well in hoops. Football probably the same too. They're just as likely to land midwest talent as they are Texas talent. They'd have abetter shot at winning a conference title in basketball in the Big 10. As DawgNDuck said, they could play Kansas OOC (like Louisville and UK, UF and FSU), in both sports, and they'd be Iowa's natural rival in-conference. Not a bad fit at all. Though the best option would be PSU leaving for the BE and Iowa St. and Missouri both coming into the Big 10. that or the Big 10 brings in Pitt as the 12th. If Pitt knocks off UK in hoops and Miami in football this year, they'd be fools not to try. Pitt is probably on the same level in football now as Penn State, and they're only gonna improve. In hoops they're better than any Big 10 squad right now except possibly Mich St. They've said they want the same impact that PSU brought to the conference. Pitt would bring it. I don't know if Pitt would join, but it's worth a shot.


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 Post subject: Big 12 realignment
PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2003 11:40 am 
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Mizzou to the Big10 would be a push at best for them. How could they be assured that the refs would treat them any better? I'd also think that travel would come into play too. I suppose Indiana and Illinois, Iowa would be relatively close, but they'd give up Iowa St., KU, Neb., OU, oSu.... to go to OSU, Minn., Penn State, Mich. Wisc....

That also applies for ut.... why would they want to give up trips to OU, OSU, Tech, BU for trips to Florida, Georgia, Tenn., Miss., Miss St. UK etc....Wouldn't be good for the fans, and they'd give up Central Time zone. Travel issues might not be that big of a deal when you are talking about the revenue generating sports, but can you justify spending the extra money to send the women's swim team across the country when they could drive to college station or waco?


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