I have been discussing an article that suggests UT & OU might have some thoughts about bailing on the Big XII if the direction of the conference doesn't go in a way that suits them. This lead me to wonder who will tip off the next round of realignment.

I think you have to find the top domino for your prediction and work down from there...

Will it be:

Will Notre Dame finally concede to drop their tailor- made schedule and join the Big 10 (who take the name the Big 13 in tribute of their often forgotten non-Div 1 member.). The Pac 10 follow their stated desire to match the big 10 if they go to 12. After UT/A&M decline without OU/OSU, the Pac 10 take on....???? UNR & UNLV? BYU & Utah? CSU & Colorado? Does the Cali state legislature force the admission of Fresno St. & SD St.? ....next?

Will Notre Dame finally cook a deal with the football playing schools in the Big East that allows them to keep their tailor-made schedule and a fat conference check? Would Penn State shock conventional wisdom and leave the acedemic and monetary riches of the Big 10 for a conference that would allow them better chances at football dominance? Would Boston College beg and buy their way back into the Big East at that point? Would the Big 10 stay at 10 and accept a loss of face? Would they bring in 2 Big XII schools like Iowa St., Missouri, Kansas, or Nebraska? Pac 10? Big XII? ACC?

Would Notre Dame join the ACC? Would the Big X look for a replacement school to soothe the snub? Pittsburgh, Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas? Who would the PAC 10 take to match? How would this affect the Big XII or MWC?

What if the SEC realizes that the Missisippi schools add nothing and drop them to seek replacements? UT/A&M would probably pass without an invite to at least OU and OSU and I don't think the rich SEC would take to being given terms. What if the SEC offered FSU & Miami the Mississippi schools slots? Total domination of Florida TV would bump up each of the 12 schools TV revenue shares and the SEC reportedly already has the biggest TV revenue anyway. Arkansas and LSU fans would love the spotlight of playing Alabama and Auburn instead of the Miss schools. What would the ACC do? poach WV and Pittsburg? Does the New Big East pull Buffalo and Memphis? Does that force ND away? Does CUSA add L. Tech & someone else? Does UNT with a new stadium have the clout to force their way into CUSA with ally Ark st?

What if the SEC was willing to add OU & OSU to get UT & AM's media power? Would they go with 16 teams? (unlikely) Would they drop the Miss schools and go with 14 teams? (possible) Would they drop Vandy and someone else (...ARKANSAS??????) to get back to 12???? The Big XII (now 8) would presumeably add Arkansas. That would be 9. Do they kick out Baylor and Tech in spite? How many more schools would they add to try to recover the loss of well over 70% of their media markets? Do they add BYU, Utah, UNM, Houston, TCU, UNT, Vanderbilt, or Memphis to restore network negotiating leverage? Do they sit tight at 8 or 9 and follow the MWC model of not further splitting their shares? What happens to the MWC? Do they merge with the WAC or raid it? Does TCU bail if BYU and Utah aren't in the WAC? Does the MWC collapse and the remaining schools come sheepishly back to the WAC? Do new conferences form from it's ashes? Does the Air Force Acedemy pull the private schools from CUSA and Vandy and form the long speculated "southern Ivy"?

Does UT & OU's frustration with the northern Big XII members lead them to taking their posse (Tech, A&M, and OSU) and forming a new conference? Using the TV negotiating power of dominance over darned near all Texas and Oklahoma TV markets, would they be able to lure schools like Arkansas and LSU away from the uber-rich SEC? Would flagship Big XII schools like Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado have to fall in line with UT & OU to avoid falling into the MWC? Would UNM be enticing to a new SWC, as they provide a contiguous untapped market, expanding their dominance unquestionably to the borders of the Pac 10? What would happen to Kansas St. and Iowa St.? Would Iowa be able to talk the Big 12 schools into adding Iowa St? Do they have any leverage? Would Kansas St. be invited to the MWC, or would they be deemed too far away and having too dodgy of a hold on the KC market, leaving the conservative MWC to add Boise State? What would Baylor do? Would they join CUSA along with L. Tech? Would CUSA split into two conferences to reduce travel costs?


Who will be the catalyst of the next round of realignments? Is it someone I mentioned? Did I hit it right on the head or am I totally off on what would happen next? Is it some school I didn't mention? I'd love to hear your answers... Who do you think will start the next shift? What happens because of that? Do you have any idea of when it might happen?

FiniteWorkMan, I think most of that is way out in left field. Something that we are all guilty of on these boards I personifying these institutions. I had no idea that Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, and OSU were “unhappy” with the Big XII North schools. Who is mad, the athletic departments, the administrations, the athletes, the students, the alumni and donors?

Why would any of the aforementioned institutions want to leave? Why are things not “going UT’s and OU’s way”?

The Big XII is a fine conference with tremendous respect throughout the collegiate athletic world. Not too long ago Nebraska was the power in college football. Colorado and Kansas State have recent history on their side. These things are all cyclical. I do not believe a bad year, or even a few, will break apart the conference. Don’t forget that the other schools do bring other benefits besides football.

The next major round of realignment will take place at the I-AA and Division I non-football levels. Look for the Mid-Continent, Horizon, Big Sky, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, and CAA to shift some as schools try to align themselves with others they feel are similar.

A number of schools considering upgrades from Division II (Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana-PA, etc.) could make things interesting as they try to find conference homes.

Any growth of non-scholarship football in Division I may also cause some unexpected conference changes, espcially if more Western D-Is start playing football.

Unless if Division I-A programs start dropping due to attendance requirements en masse, I-A should be stable until at least 2010. A purge of programs could wind up with the surviving football schools from the MAC and Sun Belt in the same conference, with possible adjustments to Conference USA, the WAC, and the Big East as well.

The only really major mover and shaker I see could be the Pac 10. But they would only countereact if the Big 10 did something. Basically ND to the Big Ten would be the real big move that sets it off.

FMW,
UT's and OU's frustration.....the Mississippi schools add nothing........
and a number of statements are assumptions. I understand you are speculating on differing scenarios and that is interesting to do.
Temple may have been kicked out of the BE, but that was the confederated BE where they were only fb members, and even then, there were warnings and time-lines involved.
Every conference will have some schools that are smaller and win in football less frequently. However, to terminate individual schools from conferences is not a good idea unless there are such things as persistent gross cheating, a huge loss of fan base, a school refusing to provide the necessary scholarships, excessive mismanagement, etc.
Suppose a SUPER 12 TEAM CONFERENCE was created and consisted of the following: (West) Sou Cal, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, LSU, and Notre Dame; and (East) Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, Georgia, Miami, and Florida State. Even then, there will be schools that dominate and others that will have losing records if they play at least seven or more of the others. Over time, certain ones will prevail more consistently over time.

The SEC is not interested in removing Vanderbilt. And it does not just rest on their academic reputation.

Penn State may have had a real struggling offense the last few years. They are not leaving the Big 10. USC, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Alabama, Kansas State, and others have all had big ups and downs over the last couple of decades.

I understand the speculation, but with major conferences, changes just are not that fluid. The ACC kicked off the last round of changes. And I agree, any PAC 10 or Notre Dame move for example could generate another wave.

Regarding Texas, and if they have Big XII issues, that is surprising considering they are just coming off a Rose Bowl win after having the peer pull to trump Cal for the spot to play. Texas' problem is losing regularly to Oklahoma.

BCHokie made a good point in questioning if certain Big XII schools are unhappy as your message implies, and noting that things can be cyclical. A lot of people question Baylor's membership in the Big XII. I would hope if Baylor could not compete in the spectrum of sports in the conference, then the school would realize this, and make an exit voluntarily. However, Baylor won this year's women's bb tourney. Their men's bb had some troubling things happen the year before, but other places, including Colorado fb has had some recent controversy.

IMO, the Texas/Oklahoma thing is a pair minor issues being trumped up because of the realignment-happy climate we're in right now. Neither school gets the conference revenue stream of their SEC, Big Ten and ACC counterparts because the overall B12 media markets aren't worth as much. Face it, apart from Denver and the Texas metros most of the B12 territory is a farm field. It's not called America's Breadbasket for nothing!

Coach Stoops also whined about the neutral siting for the conference's football championship game. The Texas sites aren't very neutral, or Kansas City is too cold, St. Louis is too far... Wah, wah, wah. Raise your hand if you wish your program had Coach Stoop's problems!

As mentioned above, once the B12 north schools return to form this will all become a non-issue. They'll realize they are hardly experiencing poverty and the only way they could lure someone else from a richer conference is to make a proposal for becoming the richest conference. I don't see the lineup possible where that will happen, so I don't think the B12 will do anything.

If you ask about "major" realignments (affecting a BCS conference or two), I anticipate the Big East split being it... when the 5-year gig is up, of course. Maybe even a season or two after.

Texas moans about their plight every blue moon, and nothing ever happens. I think something eventually WILL happen, but that'll be much farther down the road.

If someone in one of the Mountain states finds gold and causes a major rush, then the Pac-10 acts. Not bloody likely.

The most likely thing to happen in the "any realignment department" might well be a 1-AA revolt of sorts. We're still waiting to see how the NCAA will actually enforce the new regulations. I suspect they'll try, and that's when the fun begins and the lawyers converge.

Add St. Louis and Kansas City to that list.

As well:

Omaha
Des Moines
Davenport

Those three are not exactly large markets, but all bring at least 400k to the table.

I threw out a bunch of these scenarios just to peak interest and help people get started thinking about what they think will start the next tremor. I would think things like ND joining the ACC or even the Big East are pretty darned long shots, but I put them out there to hopefully spur someone to post thier own thoughts.

These aren't necessarily my opinions ---I haven't stated them as such --- and as such, I don't really feel like I have to defend them, they are simply put out there to hopefully inspire people to make their own guesses about where the next shift comes from.

[Now I do have some opinions/predictions, but they are again only part of what I am after in this threat. Maybe I will work out a prediction chronology that I will post. If I can, I will; but at this point, these are just loose thoughts (although strongly held ones) that I am not going to debate yet:

I think TV money will be an even bigger player in conference shifts. I think any school (with the exception of the gang of 5) that doesn't feel they are getting their fair share by 2009 will start the ball rolling to bail, regardless of all the other factors.

I think there has been a lot written that suggests the possibility of the next shift might occur around 2009-2011.

I have no idea what happens to ND. Maybe they stay independent.

I could see the SEC stealing Florida St. and Miami, because it makes too much financial sense. I don't know that they would boot the Mississippi schools because the SEC is all about tradition, but I sure would... :)

I think there will be a new SWC with Colorado, UT, A&M, Tech, OKl, and OKl. St. +?+? by 2015. If Colorado can be brought on board, the TV share per school would probably be the same (if not more) with or without the northern schools. I just can't see the Tex/OKl 5 putting up with being blocked on things for too long. Especially when there doesn't seem to be a point to accepting it.]

The above isn't really put out in a format I feel like discussing at this point, but I will try to put together my prediction on what will start the next shift in a discussable format for this thread. Right now I am leaning towards the SEC initiating the next shift.

Any thoughts on what you think happens in the Pac 10 if ND joins the Big 10?

I wasn't asked, but I'm a wannabe punk anyway.

Answer: nothing.

The Pac-10 goes to 12 when the TV money situation either allows for or demands it. It has little to do with the actions of any other conference.

I agree. The Pac 10 would unlikely be spurred to take action because of a domino effect. For what it's worth, there's no western school that would clearly add huge value to the Pac 10. I've heard that the Pac 10 has desired Colorado and Texas before, but I highly doubt any members of the BCS conferences (other than the Big East) will make any type of move. Schools such as Utah, BYU, and perhaps UNLV are BCS-worthy, but they don't have the revenue generating effect that Penn State had for the Big Ten or Miami has for the ACC. The mere existence of a Pac 10 Championship Game probably wouldn't create enough value to compensate an additional 2 Pac 10 members.

Not who, but what.

I buy the reasoning that the BE won't split B4 2009. The other BCS conferences probably won't do anything until conditions change. Therefore, IMHO the next major change in D1 will come about if the attendance rules are enforced. If 6-8 teams are demoted to D1AA, there will be a scramble that will end up with the SBC and WAC merging, or the MAC and WAC absorbing the SBC. Timing would be important here. If the SBC loses teams first B4 the WAC, the WAC will start taking western SBC teams and the MAC will probably pick up the remaining eastern teams. If the WAC loses SDSU to monetary issues and goes to 7 teams, then the SBC can raid them.

Side questions: 1. Who besides SNSU are rumored to be in financial difficulty? 2. How many schools are likely to be demoted? 3. How many non-BCS conferences will remain? - IMHO if 6-8 teams lost, then only 1 conference folds and 2 remain. If 10 or more, their will be major problems because there would only be enough schools for 1 good conference and the country is too big.

FBfan