In a conversation with Metro, he stated that the realignments suggested on the Dream thread would never happen. That is true. This thread, which is just for fun, is to explore LOGICAL ways a major realignment could occur. Think of it as the Science Fiction thread on realignment. Note, SF tries to talk about what could theoretically happen, although sometimes the writers go beyond that. ;)

To illustrate, I will go first.

I assume that the BE commissioner would try to get extra TV $ for the conference and talk to NBC about using BE FB games as well as ND games. ND would try to stop it by leaking news of the talks. This would sour relations with the BE and ND would go independent. The MWC would try to get in on the act, and try to split broadcast on an East/West basis. With the TV deal unsure, and the BCS looking shaky, the 6 best FB teams of the BE join with BSU and the 5 best from the MWC to start an new conference called the All American Conference(AAC). NBC would have already agreed to telecast this conferences games, and ND would find itself without a TV deal, or a guarantee bowl tie in. After a year or 2 of this, ND would ask to join the Big 10(11), making them the Big 10(12).

This realignment is very unlikely to happen. However, it could happen in theory. This could be called the TS2 nightmare scenario.

Other potential theories could start with one or more of the noncompetitive schools dropping down to D1AA or dropping FB altogether. Their conference would raid someone else and start a chain reaction like the ACC raid on the BE did.

Have Fun!

FBfan

I'll give it a whirl:

BE loses its automatic BCS bid.
The 5 remaining power conferences keep their bids along with 3 at large bids.

The B10 will find itself in a pickle one year when 2 of its teams remain undefeated (or with 1 loss) and one gets left out of the BCS. An agreement with ND will eventually be reached. (maybe only divisional games will count in the conference standings so ND will only need to play 5 Big 10 teams)

The PAC10 will then feel compelled to expand to 12. As stated elsewhere on this board, there are no perfect candidates. My gut reaction is that Utah and New Mexico are the 2 schools that best fit.

Once all 5 12 team conferences are set, I can see the 8 BCS bowl teams being seeded into some sort of a playoff.

I don't think that I am just "dreaming" on this.

pennstate danny:

The only way the B-10 takes on ND is in an all or nothing deal. There will not be any special deals for ND. They won't get their own tv packages or their own special bowl deals. They will have to share their revenue under the current B-10 guidelines. The special deal option with tv revenue and the bowl system is only availble under the current BE. That is what keeps the BE fans hoping that ND will join their FB conference if they are ever forced to join a conference. And ND will have to be force in some manner to join a conference. Their FB independence means too much to them and they won't go willingly or with out a fight. That makes them ND. If and when they do join a conference in its entirety it will be the B-10 with no special deals.

berhc

I generally agree with you but I do think that a doomsday scenario exists where a Big 10 team is left out of the BCS. I think that this may cause them to reach some sort of a deal with ND.

For the record, I am a purist. I would only want ND if they agreed to play a full schedule.

I don't see the Big 10 allowing ND, or anyone else, a special deal. ND would have to join as a regular member. For that to happen, ND would HAVE to lose their special deal with NBC, and possably their bowl tie-in with the BE. That could easily happen. Suppose, for example a BCS conference approached NBC with a deal like that between the SEC and CBS? Would you, as a NBC exec prefer a Big 10/PAC 10 deal or a ND/nobody else deal. It COULD happen. Especially if ND has another couple of down seasons. ND will only join a conference when they have to, but it is not to hard to see how they might have to in the age of Title IX cost.

FBfan

As a general rule, major changes occur when something upsets the general stability. The most obvious reason for change would be a Supreme Court ruling. Therefore I will suppose that a lawsuit in Federal court between the BCS and non-BCS schools got combined with the suit by wrestling teams against Title IX. This mistake could lead all or most of the other factions in D1 presenting "friend of the court" petitions. The Supreme Court could have a record setting case for length. A 7-2 ruling would "set the ruling in stone."

I am going to number my ruling 1A through 4A. If you prefer to change one, yours would be B. If you want to add, go to the next number.

1A. Title IX. Schools that offer scholarships would have to split money THAT COMES FROM THE ad DEPARTMENT evenly between mens and womens sports, BUT money GENERATED BY THE SPORT would NOT count. e.g. Revenue generating sports (read FB and mens BB) would not count against the $ split.

2A. The NCAA would be allowed to demand that FB teams be self supporting, and to classify teams by how many scholarships they can afford for FB. (I will assume that the NCAA would in these circumstances.)

3A. BCS. A BCS formula the does NOT include polls would be put in place. Wins/losses (W/L), opponents W/L and opponents, opponents W/L would be used.

4A. TV. The networks would give half of the money to be split between the teams playing and the other half to the conferences.



1A would make FB profitable for schools. 2A would be used to separate D-1A and D-1AA. When combined with 4A, some BCS schools would drop to D-1AA. The new BCS rules would encourage stronger O-O-C schedules and, along with 4A weaken conference ties between strong and weak schools.

Major changes would happen!

Q1. What changes would you see taking place if this ruling came down? Which schools drop, and who replaces them?

Q2. What rulings would be more reasonable, and how would that shake up the college FB landscape.

FBfan

FBfan predicting court decisions.How about earthquakes an tidal waves?

TS2,

I am NOT making a prediction. If I were, I would put it on the prediction thread! Speaking of the prediction thread, you should put your predictions of BE affiliations on it. ;D

THIS THREAD is to explore how changes could possibly take place. A court case is the likely trigger for major changes. All the possibilities that I listed would/could bring major changes to the college FB scene. What court ruling do you think would trigger a major change? The courts imposing a playoff? ??? What would be the effect of the ruling that I gave? Most of this thread is just for fun. However, in order to achieve the future we want, we must know what we want, and what is the best way to get there.

FBfan

A major earthquake in California could cause a change in the pac10.

TS2,

Maybe, maybe not. It would depend on were the earthquake hit, and how bad it was. If it was bad enough to close UCLA, it would probably effect the whole CA higher education system. State the nature of the disaster and how you think things would change. What I am looking for is a trigger that would cause trickle down changes through several conferences.

What would cause PA St. or ND to join the BE (ND for FB of course)? Would either cause another conference to add teams? (I don't think so.)
What would make ND join the Big 10(11)? What changes would that make the BE take? (IMHO - Change Yes! What? ??? ) These changes would affect a conference without changing the world as we know it.

I like to speculate on how things could be in order to judge our actions now. Let us head for the future that we want! So propose a change, and tell us what you think the affect would be.

FBfan

Ok, here are my "Logical" conference moves and tv network ,m and BCS moves:

1. NBC finally sees the sheer stupidity of only televising ONE BCS program, and starts talking to the Big Ten, and manages to entice them to go to 12, like everyone else. (around 2010)
1A. The Big Ten invites Missouri to join, and becomes "the Twelve."
2. The BCS finally closes ND's loophole and makes joining a conference a prerequisite to being in a BCS bowl, much to the bowls' consternation (also, the bowls will have complete control of the BCS, and instead the BCS will dictate terms to the bowls, not the other away around. (not known).
3. Kevin White (ND's athletic director), ND's president, and ND's board of trustees, join forces and force ND's alumni body to see the light: NO MORE INDEPENDENCE.
4. The Big East splits, and the new Eastern Conference takes East Carolina for its ninth member. Later, they take Notre Dame as their tenth member.
5. Conference USA makes a startling pick for their new 12th member: Western Kentucky. The Toppers show why they are worthy of being selected by having extremely good seasons and fan support. Also, Rice decides it needs to move down a level in football, but doesn't want to leave for all-sports. C-USA and Rice strike a deal, and Louisiana Tech comes on board as a 13th member, in all sports, competing in Rice's place in football.
6. Seeing Rice being able to strike an all-sports but football deal with C-USA, Kent State does the same with the MAC. This allows the MAC to pursue another member in all-sports which turns out to be UMass. Temple joins the MAC in all-sports.
7. Army joins the CAA for football only.

B10 would take Iowa State over Missouri.

Whatever for? ISU is a secondary school in its state; Missouri is the flagship in its.

I wouldn't say Iowa State is exactly a "secondary school" in the State of Iowa. Its nearly at the level of the U of Iowa. Its a statewide team with significant following throughout the state. The market is probably 55% to 60% U of Iowa and 40% to 45% Iowa State as far as statewide teams. Drake's following is primarily in the Des Moines metro area and some parts of Central Iowa outside of the Des Moines MSA and Northern Iowa's following is primarily Eastern and Northern Iowa and doesn't quite claim a statewide market. Nebraska aslo has signigicant following in the western part of the state, particularly in the cross-the-river-Omaha city of Council Bluffs and in the Sioux City area. Drake and Northern Iowa are the "secondary schools" of the state of Iowa and U of Iowa and Iowa State are the "primary schools" with U of Iowa having the slight edge in following over ISU.

Iowa State is also not far below in academics to the University of Iowa. Because the state of Iowa only has three state universities, they can devote more state resources and funding per institution, and as a result, U of Iowa and Iowa State are very well respected institutions nationally, and the University of Northern Iowa is a well respected public regional university (not too far below Creighton, Drake, Bradley and Valparasio in the Midwest).

Iowa State probably isn't quite as good of a candidate for the Big 10 compared to Missouri. Mainly because Missouri has nearly 6 million people and two major Midwestern cities of St. Louis and Kansas City, which is why they would be the better candidate from the Big 12 for the Big 10 in comparison. However, I would think that Iowa State would be in the Top 7 or 8 candidates as a Big 10 expansion team. Probably after Notre Dame, Syracuse, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska and then Iowa State -- so about the 8th best candidate, IMO. They would be a better candidate compared to the University of Kentucky, West Virginia University, any MAC school and any Missouri Valley school.

Not likely. ISU adds no new market for the Big Ten. It would be pointless to add the Cyclones just for the sake of a conference championship game. Missouri gives the Big Ten a new market and a half: St Louis and half of KC. Not bad, if you ask me. Think of it this way T-Man: As much as I like donuts, they do nothing for my body other than add extra weight, something I could do without. However, eating cheese gives my body protein, something it needs, and leaves me feeling more full as opposed to me feeling hungry again after I have a donut. Substitute Iowa State for the donut, and Missouri for the cheese and there you have it. Furthermore, Iowa State is more like an Auburn than a Purdue. That doesn't sit too well with the Big Ten. The fact that Iowa, and probably Minnesota also don't want the Cyclones in the Big Ten pretty much means that Iowa State won't be getting a Big Ten invite anytime soon.
I also see either BYU or Utah getting a Big 12 invite once Missouri leaves for the Twelve.