Five years from now, it is discovered by Game Theory specialists that the optimum size for conferences is 14. The Big XII therefore decides to act upon this conclusion to become the Big XVI.

However, no team already in a BCS conference wants to join, and outside of Arkansas, the Big XII doesn't want to go outside its footprint. Which two teams in the poll above are most likely to join?

I am not sure that the Big XII would limit itself to stay within its current 7-state footprint.

Of the ones that you listed, certainly TCU, Colorado State, Air Force, are realistic and perhaps Houston, SMU, and even UTEP and throw Rice, and Tulsa in as a slim possibilities.

But before looking at anyone besides the 3 MWC teams on your list, you should also consider these other MWC teams before almost all those teams except TCU, Colorado State, and Air Force:

Utah
BYU
New Mexico
Wyoming (maybe)

These are out of the current 7-team footprint, but so are those three Arkansas schools you listed.

Arkansas would be the only BCS school that would consider. Iowa and LSU are also close by, but not realistic. Quinn, the guy who runs this board, also has U of Arizona and Arizona State as possibilities.

But if the Big XII was to expand and Arkansas didn't want to join, then neighboring MWC teams and TCU (within Texas) would be your most likely candidates. This is important, considering that Street and Smith named Utah, BYU and TCU among the Top 50 most important College Football programs in the nation. They would add something. Those I-AA's wouldn't add as much. BYU and New Mexico were even speculated as candidates, particularly if Baylor didn't join. New Mexico if the Big XII ever decided to go to 14. In 2004, the Big XII even held a meeting in New Mexico, causing speculation about the conference footprint expanding west of Texas and south of Colorado. New Mexico at one time was in the same conference as Texas Tech and they share the current A & M coach as one of their former coaches and Baylor has some times to UNM.

Pick a MWC school outside of San Diego St and I would say UNLV as well. Throw in 5 CUSA West schools. Of the I-AA's, Missouri State or Creighton (if they had football) would be the only ones I could see. Also you forgot about Wichita State and Northern Iowa.

The Big 12 choices would be IMO:
BYU (Some of the schools wanted them over Baylor back in the beg.)
TCU
Utah
New Mexico
Colorado State
SMU
Air Force
Houston
Wyoming
Rice
Tulsa
UTEP
I-AA's (MSU, WSU, Creighton)

New Mexico State and North Texas would be candidates long before any I-AAs. Even Utah State. Missouri State is not even close to being realistic. Its not the same type of school as any Big XII school. Creighton gave up football in the 1920s as did Wichita State in the 1980s. I-AAs in BCS conferences are unrealistic (unless you are a flagship like UMass or U Delaware and perhaps Montana), especially when you have the Mountain West Conference right next door and in your footprint, which has had Utah with an undefeated season 2 seasons ago, and TCU last season with 1-loss. The Big XII would desire the largest markets possible, with similar insititutions that being state flagships. Missouri State, with its regional, Southwestern Missouri following, and despite a new name change would not cut it. Missouri State is not a flagship and is not even a doctorate school according to Carnegie designations. Its a regional master's university. Colorado State, UNM, Utah and top privates of BYU, TCU plus AFA do. Wyoming would be a much better pick up than any I-AA team. Tulsa would be a decent add. Houston would be the best of the regional/urban state schools followed by UTEP.

met, you only read what you want to read. Did you read my post at all? I had at least 12 schools listed before any I-AA's. All these polls are pretty unrealistic to begin with so why dont you jump him.

Yep. I read them. What is the point of a poll like this? Whether it be BCS status or a future playoff or some kind of bowl tie-ins like the past, a major conference isn't going to take a school that lowers them in the rankings and the eyes of a national perception.

The Big XII is bordered by the MWC and former remnant teams from the old SWC. There is some tradition and competiveness as well as larger market size of those schools compared to a I-AA. I-AAs when grouped together with a very major conference isn't realistic. It would take a set of very strange happenings and weird quirks of fate for any of these I-AAs or those I-AAAs to ever be in the Big XII.

I like TCU and MO State here.

Well, with the restrictions of NO BCS schools outside of Arkansas:


To me the obvious choices are
Arkansas
Utah

Arkansas is a flagship with a UT friendly worldview and gives the Big XII Arkansas's markets and Memphis.
Utah is a flagship in a growing state, is a strong academic school, and gives a solid market in SLC.


With the restrictions of NO BCS schools and not outside of the current footprint...that's a lot harder. I think in that scenario you either look for value or for a defensive position.

The big XII already owns their footprint and are athletically superior to any team within the footprint. In terms of value would be academic.

Adding Rice and division II Washington University would make academic sense, but not athletic sense.

Adding schools defensively would be to prevent schools for encroaching on Big XII territory.

Maybe Houston to block possible SEC expansion and CSU to take full ownership of the Denver market and force the MWC westward.


Of the schools on your list, I'd take UALR to expand the footprint and CSU looks the best fit. They are jjust as viable as K state.