It would appear that the Great West Football Conference is likely to disintegrate eventually.

They were conceived with 7 members, St. Mary's dropped football, so the GWFC was founded with 6, and now with Northern Colorado's move to the Big Sky, they are down to 5. There doesn't appear to be many I-AA FB aspirants in that part of the country that currently are without a home.

So - what can the other 5 do, long-term ?

Southern Utah (Mid-Con) has the same aspirations and Northern Colorado (Big Sky), and NDSt. and SD St. would love an invite to the Mid-Con / Big Sky / MVC.
The Dakota Schools might soon receive consideration from the Mid-Con (who manages the GWFC).

Say Centenary leaves the Mid-Con for the Southland, and the Mid-Con expands with IUFW, ND St., and SDSt.

Say Western Kentucky moves to the MAC.

Now the Gateway FB Conf (managed by the MVC) is down to 7 (including Western Illinois of the Mid-Con), and Mid-Con members Southern Utah, and the Dakota schools are looking for a FB home more stable than the GWFC. Would the Gateway Conf. expand to 10 and take in those 3 ? MAYBE... It'd be worth establishing some contacts now.

I think the Dakota schools might have a shot of getting into the Gateway in this scenario, since MVC members Missouri State and Northern Iowa are [sort of] in the neighborhood. Southern Utah might be another story.

Which leaves Cal Poly and UC Davis. The Big Sky is now a 9-school all-sports conference with the addition of Northern Colorado. Sacramento State seems to be migrating their sports up to the WAC, which could leave them at 8. The WAC would love another 1-A western school or two, but there aren't any western 1-A candidates right now, unless we expand the thought process to potential 1-AA upgrades (which Sac St. gives the impression of undergoing).

If I were AD at Cal Poly or UCD, and wanted a stable home for my FB program, I would have to be eye-balling moving all my school's sports to the Big Sky (appears attainable, FB is I-AA) or the WAC (would require an upgrade to I-A FB, and that may not be in the cards financially).

The Gateway Conference won't take Southern Utah...and then there's the (in)significance of Sacramento State having some non-revenue sports competing in the WAC, as if that were an indication of future I-A membership and not merely mutual reciprocation (i.e. the WAC needing members in non-revenue sports not sponsored by the Big Sky; the Big West probably not being open to accomodating Sacramento State as an "associate" read: non-basketball member)...

I am not sure that the GWFC will "disintegrate eventually". If the Mid-Con adds NDSU and SDSU they could very easily stay in the Great West thus stabilizing it. It has also been rumored that Sac-State would like to be in a "West Coast" conference to cut down on travel expenses and they and Portland State could both do that and have their football teams join the GWFC.

Another few of options that get mentioned from time to time is San Jose State dropping down, USD (CA) adding scholarships, and D-IIs moving up. Too many things can still happen for me to predict the death of the GWFC. It probably will look different then it looks today but it may survive.

her is my choice for the new GWFC:
UC Davis
Cal Poly
Southern Utah
U San Diego
Western Washington upgrades from II
Western Oregon upgrades from II
Adams State upgrades from II
Mesa State upgrades from II
Western State of CO upgrades from II

North Dakota State and South Dakota State join Pioneer and do away with the non-scholarship requirements and Jacksonville leaves for the Southern Conference

Yeah, you're right, there are a few other possiblities.

If the NCAA ever gets serious about enforcing the 15,000 (now 2 years in a row <15,000 constitutes a violation), San Jose State could be driven out of the WAC in fairly short order.

In which case, they'd probably have the BW / GWFC option in their hip pocket.

I cannot see San Jose State keeping football if they drop from 1-A. The kicker to this is that the moment that happens, the money coming in will be from the outside to finish conversion of Spartan Stadium to a soccer facility (if the location is still deemed suitable). It won't be for football sponsorships.

BTW, I can see Sac State in a Big West / Great West alignment, detractors to the contrary... but not Portland State. Not for lack of will from Portland, 'cause the Big West doesn't want any more of that travel.

I trust the one responder on another thread saying that the Rocky Mountain folks ain't moving up anytime soon... though I do have a question or two about Mesa State.

I can see Western Washington making the move... but no Washington or Oregon school is going to make a move until the Northwest economy brightens. It's still stuck for now. Even after that, Western Oregon isn't something I see happening, and their location (too close to Corvallis, which is all too close to Eugene anyway) doesn't help. I'm more intrigued by the possibility of Southern Oregon or Oregon Tech making a move (they both are still NAIA, I think), but they also have a ways to go.

CSU-Bakersfield does not presently sponsor football.

WWU and CWU are going to play football in the North Central Conference in 2006.

I think a better solution to that would have been

WWU, CWU, HSU, WOU, WNMU all join RMAC. Chadron State (NE), Fort Hays St (KS), Nebraska-Kearney, Colorado School of Mines, and Metro State join the North Central. Augustana leaves the North Central for the Northern Sun.

This gives the RMAC 10 for football and 14 overall. The North Central would then have 10 for football and 11 overall, and the Northern Sun would have 9.

Well this won't happen for several reasons. One Fort Hays State is going to the MIAA to replace UMR. Nebraska-Kearney will probally be heading to the MIAA in the near future as well along with Nebraska-Omaha and South Dakota. Rumors have floated that either Southwest Baptist or Truman State could be leaving the MIAA more than likely being Southwest Baptist.

The attached article from the Medford Mail-Tribune is from July, but tends to summarize issues with Southern Oregon and, by association, current Great Northwest Conference teams.

http://www.mailtribune.com/archive/2005/0710/sport/stories/01sport.htm

Accompanying "grid" of possibilities...

http://www.mailtribune.com/archive/2005/0710/sport/stories/02sport.htm

Why doesn't the Great West adopt the model of the Northeast and Patriot Conferences, and become a non-scholarship conference once NDSU, SDSU, and UC-Davis leave? I don't think Cal-Poly would have an issue going non-scholly, and this would allow the University of San Diego to join a more geographically sensible conference than the Pioneer, which is primarily a non-scholly league for the Ohio Valley and the South. This would also allow Pacific, CSU-Fullerton, Long Beach, and Cal State-Northridge to revive their football programs at about half the cost they used to operate at. There's some food for thought.

Sac State will not move to the GWFC or BWest conference. This was recently addressed by the Sac State President and a Sacramento Bee columnist in a long Q&A session published by the paper.

I think the great west will eventually maybe get uno, und, and usd. they will form more of a partenership with the mid-con.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=....wir e&type=lgns

This article talks about the gwfc expanding possibly by January. Good to see the conference taking action, Hopefully it can stay alive and become permanent.

I think the candidates would probably be San Diego, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Although San Diego has some scholarship issues. That would put the conference at 8, and give them a shot at the autobid in a few years. Although, with WKU moving up there has been talk about NDSU, and SDSU moving to the gateway.

If the Great Dakota Land Grants get an invite from the GFC the GWFC goes back to 6 if San Diego gets in. I think the addition of the moveups is highly probable. Cal Poly and UCD might not be too happy about that because they will have to tolerate 5 years of transitional teams on their schedule. Tough spot to be in for teams competing for an at-large bid.

Thats also on my list of reasons for the Land Grants to move over to the Gateway.

Poly managed to get selected at large in 2005 with 4 transitional teams on their schedule.

Shouldn't be a problem for any GWFC to do the same with 2.