FB fan -

I think the 5 year delay in the BE split partly provides a transition period away from how BB tourney $$ (from points are allocated). Had the FB teams seceded from the BE in 2003 to start an All-Sports conference, rumor had it that they would be walking away from their share of future point money allocation (that stay with the BE conference) in the amount of something like $42-45 million. OUCH !!!

That may have been what put the brakes on the split.
I'll bet that since the reorganization goes into effect, any points earned by a contingent that departs in 2010-2011 is transferable. The points are paid out by the NCAA over about a 6-year period, following when they are earned, so the timing is about right. Meaning that starting now (or maybe next year in the 16-team deal), all points earned by a team belong to the team, even if they depart the conference.

With regard to play-in games. Right now 64 plays 65 for the final slot (#64) in the bracket. This was implemented (I believe) when the MWC champ was certified as earning an automatic bid, and the big boys didn't want to lose an at-large, which more normally goes to the "power conferences".

To extend this philosophy, should another conference be formed and earn an automatic bid, the touney could force 63 to play 66 (in a second play-in game) for the #63 spot in the bracket.

What I wanted to note is that I DO NOT BELIEVE that these play-in slots necessarily get assigned to the worst CONFERENCE CHAMPS. They go to the two lowest seeds, based on the ranking system used by the selection committee. It just so happens that the at-large teams all ranked better than the two worst conference champions. So that the 64th and 65th ranked teams in the field (who are slated to play their way into the bracket of 64) just happened to be conference champs. This is probably likely to continue, due to upsets in the myriad conference tourneys, that work to sneak undeserving teams (Oakland, et.al.) into the tourney as "conference champs".

One year (maybe 10 years ago), Weber State went to the conference tournament with a 1-24 record. They won their first two games, to make the conference finals, and fell short in the final game to finish 3-25. Had they won that game, they'd have snuck into the big dance at 4-24...... ("Ah, what a Cinderella story !!!" as Brent Musberger would have marvelled...)

I have not noticed any predictions about the BE on this thread recently. Nor have I heard anything about the Mid-Con.

My guess is that the BE will split in 2010 or 2111.

Question of the day: Which will last longer as a D1A FB conference: the MAC, the SBC or the WAC?

Also: Will the number of D1A schools (if FB) be larger in 2012 or smaller, and by how much?

FBfan

MAC. All three might lose teams to other conferences (MVC, CUSA, BE) or to attendance issues, but only the MAC is large enough to absorb those losses