How long will this last?
Will the WAC bring in regional schools around Tech?
Will Tech have to leave the WAC?

Tech is not bringing anything to the WAC table except travel. Tech basketball is ranked 324.

It is a great question. I think La Tech is safe until they choose to leave. Idaho, NM State, and Hawaii probably don't want any part of setting a precidence in voting a team out of the WAC for travel or non-competitve reasons.

I think it could make sense for the WAC to expand east, but I think they had so many problems when they were a 16 team conference that I think they would be hesitant to exceed 10 members fearing another schism.

I think this is bad logic, if that is what they are thinking. If the WAC expands into Texas and adds say UNT, Texas St., UTSA, and Sam Houston/Lamar as football/basketball members by say 2016-2018 and goes to two 6 team divisions, they COULD face an east west break in 2021-2024 or so. That would not be the end of the world. If the breakup was handled amicably, the resultant conferences could both be quite healthy and play each other in bowl games and tourneys. Both confferences would have an abundance of well situated upgrade candidates at that point. It could work out well. Buying time could work out well. Additionally in the interim, playing a split conference could help make travel expenses more reasonable.

I think La Tech is looking to save face. They don't want to join the Sunbelt because they want to keep the pecking order of them being a higher cailber athletic school than UL Monroe -- very difficult to do in the same conference.

I think they would jump to either a high level SWC (comprised of CUSA West schools) or a low level but promising SWC (comprised of Sunbelt, WAC, Southland, and possibly MVC conference members). Argueing it would be better than the Sunbelt.

I think CUSA will fracture in 2010 or 2011. That will probably either directly or indirectly lead to change for La Tech.

Well until whatever happens, look at the travel distant between Rustin and other WAC schools. Tech use to be a great athletic school. Now they are really bad. I think its from being in the WAC.

Agreed. They are not a wealthy enough school to live like that.

How can you put Tech in the SWC with such a small market and a school population of 12k.
ULL, has a much bigger market and a bigger school. Sam Houston has a bigger school and part of the Houston DMA. Texas st MSA, DMA, and school pop. is greater than Tech.
This is the type of inconsistency through out your post.

WAC 2015-2020:

Pacific - Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, Boise State, Idaho
Central - Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, UTSA, Texas State, Lamar

All of the newbies are presumed to have passed over the Sun Belt for the WAC. On July 1, 2020 the WAC splits in half, with each half in 6/5 compliance for basketball:

WAC - Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, Boise State, Idaho, Portland State (Big Sky/FBS Independent), UC Davis (Big West/FBS Independent), Sacramento State (Big Sky/FBS Independent)

SWC - UTSA, Lamar, Texas State, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, Utah State, UTEP (Conference USA), Houston (Conference USA), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Conference USA, unchanged since 2005 despite constant rumors of a split in the Big East, finally succumbs to realignment:

West - SMU, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa
East - UAB, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Georgia State (A-10 football/CAA), Charlotte (A-10)

The fledgling A-10 football league goes to the bullpen and calls up Stony Brook and Delaware from FCS:

Temple, UMass, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Buffalo, James Madison, Old Dominion, Stony Brook, Delaware

The Sun Belt elects to stay at nine football playing schools until UALR, New Orleans, and Denver can be unloaded.

Utah State is genarlly understood to be returning to the WAC in 2025, with North Texas moving over from the Sun Belt to the SWC.

Sorry, the answer assumes some knowledge of recent conference history. La Tech was one of the teams in the running for the 12th CUSA slot that went to UTEP.

Looking at La Tech, they have a lot of negatives, most of which you have mentioned, but they are a long time established FBS school. Up to the last decade La Tech was the dominant/only FBS school in the Northern LA region. That means that they more or less owned all the media markets in N. LA and have tech fans throughout the area who might watch them on TV.

The problem is they are marginal when you really look at them. Not awful, but not great. Small public school in a small DMA. Tech does have a small branch in Shreveport and is right on the edge of that "empty" market. It is likely they are the favorite school of that DMA. If you add the Shreveport and Monroe DMAs together that is enough to interest a conference like CUSA a little, but it says a lot that CUSA took the regionally displaced UTEP instead.

LA Tech attendence is really supressed being in the WAC. Their basketball attendance is weirdly low for the region. If memory serves their Athletic budget --- although far greater than ULL's or ULM's --- was small for CUSA consideration. I'll try to look that up later. The arguement for La Tech is a potential arguement. Everything could get a lot better there pretty quickly with a few breaks.

I think they were considered because they fit nicely into the CUSA footprint and the idea was that their attendence would rebound in a friendlier conference, but ultimately they felt UTEP was a little stronger. Maybe they gave UTEP their neighboring "empty" DMA too in evalutating them.

BCS conferences
MWC
CUSA
WAC
Sunbelt/MAC

Anyway, La Tech is in a marginally higher tier conference than ULL or ULM and was considered by the CUSA schools. So I think it is safe to say that is where they fit in.

One thing that might make a lot of sense for La Tech is seeing if they can become a football only member of the WAC. If I were their athletic director, I would try to swing that with the WAC commisioner and play their other sports in the MVC. The MVC makes regional sense and is a big time basketball conference these days and has always been a fairly good at baseball with Wichita State. It could also position them reasonably well if missou state, So. Ill, Ind state, and Wichita state upgrade.

That is a good idea for Tech, however would the MVC allow one of the worse basketball teams in the country in. La Tech is ranked 320 out of 341.

The WAC would love to be in a position to kick out LA Tech. No, really, they do.

The problem is in the numbers. The WAC has been strong on top with Boise St., Hawaii and Fresno. The problem is the size of the conference. CUSA took UTEP away. What if another school followed? Even worse...what if the MWC comes looking to expand and takes Boise St.? Or even worse...the MWC expands to 12 and takes multiple WAC teams?

The WAC is sadly in a wait and see situation. Wait to see what happens elsewhere and react. If you boot LA Tech and then lose teams, all of a sudden you might need to expand and LA Tech might not be a bad option when your ONLY options would be sunbelt teams.

In the perfect world for the WAC, the MWC expands by 1 and chooses a CUSA school such as UTEP. CUSA might then chose to expand and could invite LA Tech. Then the WAc gets rid of LA Tech as part of a move that protects 1 of the schools they want to maintain.

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Very possibly. If I were the commissioner of the MVC I would strongly consider La Tech if they wanted this arrangement. La Tech used to be a lot healthier athletically, especially in basketball, but the travel budget and lack of rivals is sapping the program and the fan enthusiasm. CUSA likely projected what La Tech COULD be when they considered them. La tech is on the edge of a very healthy basketball region. Probably half to 2/3 of the Div I schools in the MVC footprint draw 4-5K or more a game. People care about their basketball teams out there. Can't say that about Texas.

In the Next 20 years the MVC will either have to go hybrid or will lose some of their better athletic schools. To go hybrid they will need to expand and add schools. The MVC could become a lesser Big East of the midwest. Expansion with teams who would make for a natural football/basketball hybrid conference in 10 years (Miami U, Ohio, La Tech, Denver, UMKC, UMSTL or St. Louis, UALR, UNT, Sam Houston, UVU, UTSA, Texas State, possibly NM State or New Orleans) would do a lot to prevent schools like Missou State, Wichita State, and Southern Ill from just bailing and crippling the conference when an opportunity arises.

In practical terms, those 3 schools would certainly love to add some FBS or future FBS members to open a clear path to a future FBS conference for them.

I think the WAC is really missing the boat by not expanding now with a few FCS members with good FBS potential. Being a hybrid conference with potential FBS memebers could really stabilize that conference and protect it against defections at the top (Boise) or bottom (La Tech, NMSU).

I still stand by the idea that Hawaii, Idaho, and NM State might hate the travel costs like all the other members, but they aren't going to be part of any move to drop La Tech for competitive or travel reasons.

At this point in time, LA Tech is the only school that is very likely to leave the WAC come 2010. And that date is getting near. If they want to join the Sun Belt in 2010, they have to say something soon. CUSA is pretty much out of the question, as they are very satisfied with their makeup now (although I'm still iffy about them taking UTEP).

FCS schools are going to insist on home games with some of those teams in exchange, I think... and guess which schools they'd ask to visit. The one real asset the WAC has going for it is their recent tendency to get into the BCS... a hybrid could (and I stress COULD) damage that by lowering strength of schedule even further than it is now. As it is, Fresno and Boise fans complain whenever Weber or ISU or Cal Poly makes a visit.

The hybrid is politically unpalatable to the conference, by my estimation.

If the WAC gets raided / otherwise loses teams to force an expansion, they will look to the Big Sky and the Big West teams that play football (FCS) namely: UC-Davis and Caly Poly-SLO.

The Big Sky teams that seem to be best positioned move up (once the moratorium is over) would be Sacramento State, Portland State, Montana, and Montana State. This is not to suggest that they have the desire / wherewithal to move up. There are numerous issues, such as having to drastically increase the athletics budget, and football attendance should at leastt come close to approaching 15,000.

Idaho was the last team to join the WAC (out of necessity for a 9th team), and their budget and facilities leave a bit to be desired, although they are working on improving them. But when you don't have a huge enrollment / alumni base / local following, playing big time athletics can be rather draining.

If I had to place odds on the teams to move up, I think I'd go with UC Davis and Sacramento State as the 2 most likely.