davids wrote:
Lets not forget other schools. What about Central Arkansas? Would they make a move with them as well? They seem to have a much better football program NOW who can compete with the likes of conference USA. CA is the best team in the Southland confernce right now. They played Tulsa very close this year.
Nicholls State? They been playing more 1-A teams lately.
NW Louisiana State is another one that played FBS teams as well.
Also Missouri State is a good candidate as well.
If these teams go forward, would other teams also make the same move in the same area?
New Mexico Highlands
Eastern New Mexico
South East Missouri State
Murray State
Prairie View A&M (I remember them and Lamar had some short of rivalry in football years ago)
Grambling State
Southern U.
Texas Southern
Competitiveness is actually one of the lesser things in terms of moving up. Having the potential to generate TV revenue, having a large endowment, being academically well respected, having good fan support....Those factors have as much if not more to do with whether a school moves up conferences at the FBS level.
Central Arkansas could legitimately have a decent FBS future, but there is nothing that suggests they are looking to make that jump any time soon. They seem quite pleased with themselves to be at the FCS level. Additionally as a recent upgrade from DII, they won't satisfy all the 7/6/5 rule things until 2015-2018 or so. (Haven't counted the years out.) That diminishes how much value they would have for say the breakaway southland 4 (SHSU, Texas St, UTSA, and Lamar) ---their likely avenue for an FBS jump. Texas State, UTSA, and Lamar hope to jump in the 2011-2016 time frame. (Before anyone jumps me, I am not saying that a FCS to FBS jump takes a year, in the recent past it has been about a long drawn out multi-year process. The point I am making is that the breakaway southland schools have expressed a commitment to doing it. It is likely that as soon as the moritorium is lifted at least 3 of them will immediately put in their paperwork to move up. Will they be content to hemm and haww around for years waiting for C. Arky to make up their mind to submit their paperwork and then additional years waiting for them to go though the upgrade process? I tend to doubt it.)
(Could UCA be admitted as a non-football member of a new western southland FBS conference, with the understanding that football will come one day down the road? Sure, but again due to the 7/6/5 rule their status as a recent DII upgrade makes them less valuable than say TAMU-CC, SFA, or UTA to the breakaway 4.)
Nicholls State has no FBS potential, IMO. They could be another ULM. For a lot of schools that would not be worth upgrading.
NW Lousiana is more interesting, but still is likely at the right level for now. Even though there are much better candidates, a move by them might make some sense.
Missouri State is very interesting. I think at some point we did a thread on them as a potential FBS upgrade.
New Mexico Highlands - no chance. Even FCS is probably beyond their reach due to geography, enrollment, and a number of other factors.
Eastern New Mexico - " "
South East Missouri State - Has potential as an FBS school, but likely at least 20 years away from realizing it.
Murray State - At the right level. No legit FBS hopes.
Prairie View A&M (I remember them and Lamar had some short of rivalry in football years ago)
Grambling State
Southern U.
Texas Southern
I took my lumps on another board praising the potential of Texas Southern as an FBS school over that of some of the more prominant Southland Lousianna schools. I still feel Texas Southern has more potential at the FBS level, but it is, frankly, faint praise. Texas Southern, Houston, and Rice are right under the Texans NFL Killzone and the NBA Rocket's Killzone, in addition to competing with each other. None of these schools will draw well in the forseeable future. That means FBS survival will be difficult. I think Texas Southern gets that.
I think I could see all 4 of these HBCUs in a shared HBCU FBS conference, but given the trouble schools like Texas Southern could have at the FBS level, I cannot see them making the jump without a HBCU FBS conference to call home.
Really unless 7-8 top FCS HBCUs breakaway to create a FBS HBCU conference, you won't see any of the 4 move up. IMO.