It is official GReat West Conference. NJIT sound look into the MAAC or Patriot

NJIT has tried everywhere in the east,but were turned down.Their president has less than a year on his contract.

While this conference sounds crazy beyond belief, it could actually be OK.

Consider:

Cal Davis and Cal Poly are almost certain to only be football members of this, but clearly need the GW to stay around. They need members to keep the other 3 together. S. Utah will likely see this a travel improvement over the summit and will eventually be all in. SD and ND are in, IMO, because NDSU and SDSU are in the MVC and therefore could have a number of options. They could actually even jump to FBS if the MVC goes that way. Add in the fact that the MVC probably don't have slots for UND and USD and it starts to make sense.

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None of the Utah and Dakota schools are thrilled with the Summit schools and all the travel there, but it was all that was there for them when the State schools jumped.

I don't think the Dakota schools anticipated MVC invites. The all sports MVC is 10 schools; 4 do not play football. 5 of those 6 (the publics) play in the football MVC with former FCS champ Youngstown State, new powers FCS NDSU and SDSU, and southern illinois's little brother Western Illinios. That is pretty much cherry picking the best of the region.

9 is an optimal number for football scheduling. 12 is decent for BB, but not as good as 10. Assuming the 5 football publics in the MVC intend to keep their non-football basketball powers (Creighton, Wichita St., and Bradley), they are not going to consider adding more than 4 teams all sports members , and frankly to appease their basketball bretheren it likely would only consider 2 to allow the retention Drake and Evansville. Maybe the other two would be NDSU and SDSU. Maybe this is a tryout. Maybe not. But in any instance it likely won't include UND and USD.

Add Drake back into the Football mix. Add 2 all sports members and maybe 1 football only member...

non football
1)Creighton
2)Wichita State
3)Bradley
4)Evansville

1) Drake
2) Southern Illinois
3) Missouri State
4) Northern Iowa
5) Illinois State
6) Indiana State
+
7) NDSU? (all sports)
8) SDSU? (all sports)
+
a willing football only member?
9) W. Illinois. (FB only)

To me this is one of many possibilities. I think it won't happen this way because what you are seeing today is actually what the MVC public prefer. They play who they want --- the best teams in relatively tight footprint --- and get to retain the basketball schools and the non-football rivalries.

I think ultimately NDSU and SDSU will try to force the issue and the MVC publics won't want to give them full membership. One of them would have to win an FCS title to get both of them in, IMO.

If the Publics make a push for FBS though, NDSU and SDSU will be in. My gut feeling is 3-5 of the football MVC publics want to do it, but won't have their act together until maybe 2020, by which time the Dakota schools might be off the board.

So what happens if NDSU and SDSU don't get in as full members? Retreat to the Summit? Keep the status quo? Not likely. To me not joining the GW for other sports reads like keeping your options open in case of a ridiculous change in fortune by the Summit. with travel costs as they are, UND and USD are always going to have slots for NDSU and SDSU, right?

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getting back to the great west... It isn't as bad as it looks. People are looking at it as stretching from NJ to CA. That isn't the case. It is two parallel conferences with a 3 team overlay. And it is temporary.

Football GW
Cal Poly
Cal Davis
S. Utah
UND
USD

Non- football
S. Utah
Utah Valley
UND
USD
Texas Pan American
Houston Baptist
NJ tech

Even adding in Chicago St. and Seattle as non-football schools, that isn't really all too much worse than the Summit and in fact might be better athletic programs. And USD, UND, and S. Utah OWN it.

Consider what happens in around 2011 or so.

The southland 4 break away --- possibily with 2 non-football members. The remaining southland schools may very well grab UTPA.

The MVC will probably resist the idea of SDSU and NDSU as full members, so SDSU and NDSU will probably jump back to the GW.

NJ tech will bolt east as soon as a spot opens in a conference with a friendlier conference footprint. With as much shifting as there is out there 2011 seems a likely time. Frankly even the summit has a much more eastward lean than the GW.

Seattle will probably be re-admitted to the WCC by then. Religious ties and all that.

Don't be suprised to see W. Illinois lured away from the summit by NDSU and SDSU for an all sports home.

Frankly, I think Oral Roberts and Denver would be nice snags too. Nebraska-Omaha eventually...

so maybe by 2012

Football GW
Cal Poly
Cal Davis
S. Utah
UND
USD
SDSU
NDSU
W. Ill
(Nebraska -Omaha by 2018?)

A fairly salty football conference.

Non- football
west
S. Utah
Utah Valley
UND
USD
SDSU
NDSU

east
Denver
W. Ill
Chicago St.
Oral Roberts
Houston Baptist
(Nebraska -Omaha by 2018?)

Consider the markets in BB. Salt Lake/Utah, Denver, the Dakota Markets, Chicago, Tulsa, Houston. Consider that almost all of the Utah universities are solid in basketball, that Oral Roberts has had good days in BB, that Chicago and Houston are BB hotbeds with no real good BB schools...it could quickly become a mid-major if Chicago State and or Houston Baptist catch a good recruit or two... Frankly all of the schools would have access to Chicago and Houston for recruiting. I have said repeatedly that Denver may only be a big name recruit away from becoming the western version of St. Louis. They are a good academic school. They could retain a guy 2-3 seasons.... There is enough there to make some TV money and cover travel expenses. Like a Western baby CUSA.

The summit could rebuild (possibly even with NJ tech for a while) and call ups from Division 2. Grand Valley State, C. Missouri, and maybe even Missouri- STL to keep Missouri-KC around. GV State and C. Missouri would be OK replacements for the MVC as "football only members". The footprint would be better --- meaning the conference would get better. The summit will have good days, but I think they have to go through their "sunbelt period".

Summit
Oakland
Grand Valley State
IUPU Fort Wayne
IUPUI
UMKC
UMSTL
C. Missou
Centenary

The Great West all sports conference won't last very long. With travel issues abundant, it will collapse within a few years.

The Great West's prospects for survival as an all-sports conference aren't great, but there are some factors working in their favor:

(1) Political tensions between North Dakota/South Dakota and North Dakota State/South Dakota State - this lies mainly between UND and NDSU, but their are some hard feelings regarding the schools' transition to Division I. This will help keep UND and USD out of the Summit.

(2) The Southland's reluctance to add non-football schools - The Southland may have to change their tune if FBS depletes their conference heavily, but this probably won't be the home for Centenary, UTPA, and Houston Baptist anytime soon.

(3) Chicago State's messy divorce from the Summit (then Mid-Continent) - It wasn't exactly a secret that the Cougars were facing conference sanctions when they left the Mid-Continent. Don't expect them to be invited back unless if things get really bad for what's now the Summit League.

(4) The Big Sky's continued rejection of Southern Utah - The Big Sky keeps citing academics when it comes to Southern Utah. As long as the Big Sky has no incentive to add them (i.e., replace Montana), expect the status quo for the Thunderbirds. As long as Southern Utah stays parked, so will Utah Valley.

Those factors above yield our core group of six schools:
North Dakota
South Dakota
Texas-Pan American
Houston Baptist
Chicago State
Utah Valley

If those six schools can stay together as long as the NCAA requires, then the prospects for survival look excellent. Once the automatic bid is secure for basketball, the following schools should be ripe for the picking:

Southern Utah (all other sports besides football)
Denver (if they don't join immediately after leaving the Sun Belt)

Chicago State officially joined the Great West, bringing all-sports membership up to 7 schools. Seattle University is also considering membership.

WWU and (maybe) CWU are the only real potential candidates. UBC and Simon Fraser would be a good candidate to hit I-AA should the NCAA ever allow Canadian schools in. The rest are provate D-III (possibly an NAIA or two in there), so I don't see any movement there unless, say Bill Gates, would totally fund their move to scholarship athletics).

It would take some mass defections to the Horizon before the Summit would even think about taking back ChiState. Looking at the number and level of sanctions that were to be leveled there (which probably would have prompted an NCAA investigation), only the most desperate of conferences would even look their way. The Horizon would take IP-FW long before they took Chi State.

Western Oregon is actually D-2, though they are just getting comfortable wearing those shoes after being NAIA and then D-3 for a while. Besides, since the North Central didn't last long for CWU and WWU, there's now a reasonable football conference with those three, Humboldt State, and Dixie State in Utah. Not great, but reasonable. Furthermore, the Great Northwest serves CWU, WOU, and WWU better than the Great West would... not sure what happens if Seattle U joins, but I doubt any of these schools want any part of conference road trips to New Jersey. Probably not Chicago, either. There's not a highly developed fan base among those three schools to cover those costs.

I thought Western Washington was keeping an eye on D-1 for a while... but I think they were thinking Big Sky. Recently, nothing... and I thought I heard something indicating they've been scared off.

They could use some D-2 compatriots... and I don't see where they'd come from. Everyone else is comfortable.

Seattle has strongly expressed their preference to join the WCC.

If that doesn't happen, it may behoove them to join the Great West (which I believe currently just sponsors football and basketball). Seattle doesn't play football, however if, in 5 years or so, the Great West Champion gets an automatic qualifier to the NCAA D-1 Basketball Tournament (no doubt via a play-in game), a 1/8 shot at getting to the Big Dance sure beats being an independent. No doubt that was the total allure of the Great West to New Jersey Tech.

Seattle should maybe join NOW rather than later. The Great West is clearly a stepping-stone conference. The Dakota Schools would jump in a heartbeat to the Summit / FB in the MVFC (alongside NDSU / SDSU), if it were offered. The Texas schools are eyeing the Southland. So if Seattle wants to join (even as a temporary stop-gap measure en route to the WCC), it might be in their interest to be begin their membership now, BECAUSE should the 6/5 rule kick in during some defections down the road, they would be one of the 6 and their tenure in the Great West might have effect on the NCAA certification of the entire conference membership.

The Great West to date has been ONLY a football conference.

It is for FCS Football Schools that can't get into other conferences.

Current members:
UC Davis (Big West)
Cal-Poly - SLO (Big West)
Southern Utah (Summit)
North Dakota (Indepedent til now, just became an "all-sports" member of Great West)
South Dakota (--- see North Dakota ---).

Southern Utah wants to move to the Big Sky, but they've been denied.
North and South Dakota have their eyes on the Summit / MVFootballConf. (like their Dakota brethren - NDSU and SDSU).

University of Seattle beat the moratorium to start moving up to Div. 1.
They don't play football. However, they have been invited to apply to join the Great West for basketball.

No decision yet. Seattle really would prefer to join the WCC.

The Big Sky does not want any partial members at this time. They are exclusively "all sports".

Denver has potentially sealed their fate as an independent by announcing their departure from the Sun Belt Conference within 5 years (per 5/20/08 article in the DU student newspaper). The Summit, West Coast, or Missouri Valley would be better choices, but the Summit will likely pass on expansion unless if someone leaves, and membership in the MVC or WCC would be doubtful. Denver would be very centrally located in the Great West, as opposed to an outlier in another conference.

If UALR and New Orleans get "encouraged" to leave the Sun Belt, those schools could find themselves in the Great West simply because they don't have football programs.

Denver (like Seattle) has also made inquiries about joining the WCC. Seattle is in the WCC foot-print at least, Denver would be so far east, they would pose travel problems as they currently do in the Sun-Belt. WCC has said NO to expansion at this time.

I hadn't heard that Dnever officially announced that they would depart, but it's well-known that they have been looking elsewhere. I think it was around May 2008, the Sun-Belt Commissioner Wright Waters made a statement that all future Sun-Belt expansion candidates must play football, and be willing to bring all their sports into the Sun-Belt. South Alabama is adding football, leaving only UALR and UNO as non-football entities.

Maybe Denver, UALR, and UNO were politely asked to add football or start looking elsewhere.
Denver has been isolated since football schools Utah State, New Mexico State, and Idaho left the Sun-Belt for the WAC in the 2003 shakeout. the Sun-Belt reformed as a southeastern conference (+ Denver hanging out there alone).

I think the following may happen...

You have a few FCS schools wanting to move up...
3-4 from the Southland
maybe Appalachian State and Georgia Southern from the SoCon
and start-ups Georgia State (CAA) and UNC-Charlotte (A-10).

Big East MAY split and absorb some C-USA east schools.
Regardless, C-USA splits and C-USA East and Sun-Belt re-shuffle and accept some of the above southeastern teams.
C-USA West becomes new Southwest Conference and adds some Southland FCS move-up teams and MAYBE North Texas from Sun-Belt, and maybe New Mexico State from the WAC.
Louisina Tech leaves the WAC to join one of these new entities.
(there is a net increase of one FBS Conference).

Non-football schools (namely UALR, UNO, and Denver) are left looking for a new home).
The Southland now has some vacancies.
Summit members Centenary and Oral Roberts may also be looking for something more geographically favorable (such as the Southland, if the Southland decides not to shun teams that lack FB teams).

Should the Summit lose any teams, the candidates at the top of their list will be North Dakota and South Dakota (to join NDSU / SDSU) and tighten up their geography. Travel costs DO MATTER at the FCS level.

This shake-out may not happen until 2015 or so, but there are a lot of forces pushing in that direction.

Even if New Orleans and UALR never make it to FBS, both schools playing FCS football will go a long way to stabilizing the Great West by giving another reason for the Southland not to take Houston Baptist and/or UTPA. Additionally, both UNO and UALR could play FCS football in the Great West while their other sports are in the Sun Belt.

If UNO does make it to FBS, they could play Tulane every year in one of college football's few cross-town rivalries.

As long as Gonzaga has a basketball profile, there will be NO WCC expansion. They want 8, meaning only 14 conference games, meaning they can maximize the big time OOC games they play against the big schools.

Furthermore, they can play in Seattle at least once a year doing that... they probably don't welcome Seattle into the conference anyway. Fox Sports NW already covers them extensively.

Will Gonzaga slip over time? Possibly. Probably. Until then...