Anything that envolves mass redistribution of schools to different conferences won't happen. No one in the WAC would be happy going back to the Big West or the Big Sky(even though Idaho belongs there)

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Well envision this.

The PAC-10 goes to 12, grabbing 2 schools from the MWC/WAC.

The MWC decides that there is no longer critical mass for both the MWC and WAC to survive in D-I FBS, so they expand to 12 (at the expense of the WAC).

Suddenly the WAC is down to 4 schools (LaTech and 3 teams schools that probably are borderline, with regard to meeting the 15,000 attendance (that nobody seems to enforce), I'm thinking Idaho, Utah State, and New Mexico State). Depends who MWC grabs. They might want Utah State, if the PAC took Utah and BYU. Or they might not want Hawaii, due to travel costs. They could take UTEP from C-USA. Who knows, the point is that if the bigger conferences all decided to expand to 12, the WAC gets picked over, and not much is left.

Or in the east.... If the Big East expands to 12 football schools, the 4 new schools have to come from somewhere.
UCF and Memphis would seem to factor into that mix. At least one of the other two will come from C-USA East (ECU / Marshall ?). Suddenly CUSA has been picked over, and the Texas schools / Tulsa / Tulane / Southern Miss may look hard at restocking with LaTech / North Texas / New Mexico State, and / or the FCS -> FBS upgrades from the Southland.


This stuff could happen in the next 2 years, or not happen at all in the next 20 years.

No school is going to voluntarily "downgrade" themselves. However, some schools can find themselves "ditched" or "deserted" during a conference scramble, with their options being not particularly palletable.
2 cases in point - Denver (WAC absorbed 3 of the 4 western teams from the SunBelt in the 2003 re-shuffling, Denver was not a WAC candidate, due to lack of a football program) AND Louisiana Tech (CUSA asorbed all the Texas schools / Tulsa from the WAC during the 2003 re-shuffling, but passed on La Tech, leaving them "stranded" in the WAC. Both Denver and LaTech would now prefer to be in a different conference, but certainly aren't dealing from a position of strength in such negotiations.

Tute I posted some senarios on the realignment thread a couple day ago (2nd forum) no one has responded. The Pac-10 has said they have no plans to expand. I know what you mean though. Lets say the MWC went to 12(which they would only do if it gave them an auto-bid for BCS) Boise St., Fresno St., Nevada would go. WAC has 6. UTSA & Texas St. are wanting to move to FBS. They could be added. Montana & Montana St. could be asked to move up. UC Davis(would need to add 500 seats) or Sac. St. could be asked to move up.

There are lots of option, plus the schools don't just leave when something is announce, it takes a couple of years giving the other conference time to regroup.

Say a new SWC confernce forms then La.Tech, UTSA, Texas St. are gone(PS a new conference that doesn't have 6 members who have been playing together 5 years or more must wait until they have to get an auto-bid for basketball,like Great Midwest Conf.) If there are then the wait for a new conf. is 1 year, like MWC.

WAC would be: Hawaii, New Mexico St., Utah St., Idaho, San Jose St., UC-Davis, Montana, Montana St., Sac St.

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Right.

I know very little about the probability of imminent expansion by any of theser conferences.
But the point is that the WAC is on the bottom rung of the ladder in the Football Bowl Subdivision (as far as western US conferences go). So if they are picked over from above (MWC and / or PAC), they have to look down toward the Big Sky / Big West for replacements.

This is problematic, since the moratorium is in effect, and the candidate schools would need to ramp up their $$$ outlays for additional football scholarships and also perhaps athletic facilities. A few may be thinking along the lines of preparing themselves for a possible jump up into the FBS. Sacramento State and maybe UC Davis seem to be investing in facilities, but the jump may take a lot more money than they currently budget for athletics. If the WAC has to move quickly to expansd in the wake of a raid, they could find themselves in a bind.

What would be the option if WAC was to lose Boise St, Louisiana Tech, and possibly Utah St clearly it would really effect the conference and someone would have to move up should these 3 leave say Sacramento St, and UC Davis there would have to be another school to fill the void if this was to happen so who would make the jump should this happen and who would be willing to make the next move if it came to that?

Utah St. isn't going anywhere. UC-Davis, Sac St., UTSA, Texas St., Montana, Montana St. could all be options. If nothing opens up in the Sun Belt. UTSA & Texas St. will be scrabling to find a conference.

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My bad i was looking at Quinn's realignment grid and thinking Utah St due to how there Basketball program has been having a lot of success since leaving the Big West and joining the WAC. As far as Texas St goes and UTSA well they would probably fit into the Sunbelt Conference given the fact that North Texas is there should Denver and New Orleans was to be forced out of the Conference Denver would probably fit into the Great West if they are forced out not sure what will happen to New Orleans due to cutting their Athletics program.

I think Denver is being forced out. I hope someone can get info on it. If UNO drops to D-II that would put the Sun Belt at 11 without those 2. I think they would only add 1 of the 2 to put them at 12. Leaving one for the WAC if it needs a replacement. If both got the invite to the Belt I agree they would go there with the other schools in the area.

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Another article out of Honolulu detailing the apparently eroding financial picture for UH sports at http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/artic ... 20346/1001

Any conference that's been sent scrambling to find replacements in recent history knows better than to force out a member, even in a tenuous situation like Denver and the SBC. Once the conference starts making those moves instead of the schools, it tends to cast a shadow over the conference that's going potential member schools second thoughts about going there. If a conference is going to vote out a member school without very very good reason*, potential members may be weary about going somewhere where they could be voted out arbitrarily. When you consider that when the moratorium is over and the economy is back in the black, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are two schools likely to move to I-A, the last thing you want to do is have them pass the SBC over for Conference USA.

* The only recent example I can think of where a school could have been kicked out of a conference and had good reason was Chicago State, the difference is they left the (now) Summit before they would have been kicked out due to a lot of hefty violations. Not only did their decision to go to purgatory (being an independent) keep them from having some strict penalties from the conference, but probably kept the NCAA out of their hair (apparently wallowing in that murky of water does seem to get some sympathy from the suits).

UTPA got kicked out of the Sun Belt in 1998 or 1999.

I think Denver had some agreement with the Belt so they aren't being kicked out. Good reason, distance. Does Denver have 15 sports? SBC rule is 15. UNO might get kicked out because of that. We'll see what happens in the next 2 years.

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Article out of Idaho reporting that BSU is increasing athletic revenue with ticket price increases and a new media rights deal.This should allow them to "tread water" while they wait for either the recession to end or for the MWC to "throw them a lifeline".Link at http://www.idahostatesman.com/newsupdat ... 88374.html

Another article out of Boise regarding the BSU athletics financial situation at http://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/story/689114.html

That was also before the recent raids on the Sun Belt, and I'm not sure what the reasons were for kicking them out. But with the definite possibility of losing members in the future, giving members the boot may scare away other schools. Is it a good fit? Not really, the SBC would love to not have Denver, and Denver would love to be in a conference in the actual region. But the options right now aren't particularly enticing (Summit, Great West, the WCC would become an option IF they take Seattle, but that's an entirely different scenario), so they're putting up with each other until Denver can find some place to go to. One of the problems is that Denver is in a strange situation with ice hockey being their main economic generator. If their basketball program can build itself to the level they were a few years ago when they won the Sun Belt, then they might be more attractive to the WCC.

yeah, i feel like Denver will be in the sunbelt until the WCC invites them. If that doesn't happen, it will be a long time.

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