Here's my question.... why is everyone saying that if Colorado left the Big 12, their #1 replacement candidate would be TCU?

A school of less than 9,000, which is 14,000 less than any other Big 12 team that didn't have to tag along with Texas to get in. The Dallas market? Really? I'd bet there's more Longhorn fans than TCU and SMU fans combined (Their football stadium holds 44,000, and with an undefeated team sold out one game only, and it wasn't their finale. With an 11-0 team and a BCS berth on the line, they can't sell 44,000 tickets. I'm not bashing TCU, I'm just saying, that's not a Big 12 fan base. It's like adding another Baylor. When the Big Eight didn't want Baylor).

TCU makes zero sense if Colorado leaves. They are worth considering if Texas leaves, but not Colorado. Why do you need a fifth Texas team when the Dallas/Houston markets are covered? Why do you need a small private school with a smaller fan base?

If you're going to add anyone if Colorado leaves, you add Colorado State, which would give you SOME Denver presence, instead of none. OR add UNLV, who's enrollment would be third in the Big 12, and might get you a new market (and entrance into the Pac 10 region)

Adding TCU would be like the Big East adding Temple for hoops only. What's the point?

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I've been pretty vocal about BYU being the top candidate...especially since they were the #1 candidate during the Big 8 expansion for #12, but Gov. Richards forced Baylor in instead.

I think TCU comes into play next if it's a scenario in which Texas ever left.

If there were ever a more mass exodus, I could certainly see UNLV added over the CUSA Texas schools. But ideally if BYU were in the fold as well.

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The Big XII will not have to worry about who to add to replace Colorado. They're not likely to survive this new round of conference expansion. It'll be every man for himself. They'll be jumping ship for the Big Ten, SEC, & Pac Ten.

If you must go north to replace Colorado, I'd take Air Force, they have a nation wide fan base. I can't see UNLV in the Big 12. BYU yes only if they can figure out the sun. thing. I can't see the B12 moving the Conf. championship for bball to Sat just for them plus the old AD for BYU said they are NOT an option for the P10 or the B12. I'd still rather have TCU or Houston even Colorado St. over UNLV.

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What are you talking about? At most the Big 12 loses 3. Either Missouri or Texas to the Big 10 or neither. Texas and or Colorado to the PAC 10 or just one or neither. I still say the Big 10 goes east as long as Texas says no. I think the only one that will end up leaving is Colorado for the Pac 10. Replacements for the 3. TCU, Houston, BYU, Air Force, Colorado St. etc...

The Big XII will not have to worry about who to add to replace Colorado. They're not likely to survive this new round of conference expansion. It'll be every man for himself. They'll be jumping ship for the Big Ten, SEC, & Pac Ten.[/quote]

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If the Big Ten goes to 16, all bets are off.

If the Big Ten wants Texas badly enough, they'll take a 2nd Texas school, which is what politicians in Texas are likely to insist on.

If Big Ten expansion triggers another round of conference raids to get other conferences to 16, the Big XII is not likely to survive.

yeah but no one is going to 16, they're going to 12. Maybe 14, 16 will be the talk of 2020. WAC showed 16 sucks and then BE is sucking w/ 16 and only 8 play football. They will probably need to split soon

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Not so fast. It's the Big Ten itself that has brought up the number 16. So, who are we to say that it won't happen? Follow the money.

The Big East may dissolve before it splits.

One major problem with - as well as common sense dictating against - a 16 team, 4 division conference is the need for a 14th game to decide the championship. College prseidents are opposed to even a "plus one", so I can't see them approving that arrangement.

Article out of Denver(previously posted in another thread)with comments from CU Chancellor regarding the possibility of Colorado moving to the PAC 10.He says he needs to see revenue projections comparing the Big 12 and the PAC 10 after the new conference tv deals are negotiated.
What happens if the Big 12's new tv deal remains larger than that of the Pac-10?
Link at http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_14393700

friar, I'll stick with what will likely happen, PAC 10, Big 10 go to 12. Not gonna treat the slim to none chance they go to 16 as the demise of the BE and B12.

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couple things:

#1 - I really see the Big Ten going to 14. The BTN is the reason they can expand beyond 12. Adding markets adds significant revenue. Other conferences don't have that. If you want to gain headway into the NY market, why try to get some with Rutgers, or some with Syracuse, when you can add virtually the entire STATES of New York and New Jersey with Syracuse AND Rutgers? And if you're going to 13, you might as well make it balanced with Missouri (assuming you can't get Texas) and add St. Louis as well?

And 14 would allow them to take Texas A&M with Texas (if possible) and then either Rutgers or Syracuse.

#2 - The NCAA Rule on championship games for football says conferences with 12 or more teams can split into divisions and have a championship game. It doesn't say you can have a football playoff.

A semifinal/final for four divisions would mean counting the semifinals as one of the 12 games. You're not going to take a HOME non-conference game (translation: Serious Money) from 14 teams so that TWO can host semifinal games.

You'd have to have each semifinal game produce eight times the revenue of a non-conference home game for that to make financial sense. And since Ohio State can get 100,000 fans to see them thrash Youngstown State, that's unlikely.

#3 - Fresno,

There's a number of possibilites, but the Big 12 breaking up completely isn't very realistic.

Colorado to the Pac 10 seems likely if the Pac 10 expands.
Missouri OR Texas to the Big Ten is possible.
Texas and Texas A&M to the Big Ten (if the state politics of Texas step in, or if the Big Ten thought having two teams would mean grabbing all 8 million households in the state and a travel partner for non-revenue sports would be beneficial) is also possible.
Texas and Missouri to the Big Ten together is probably doubtful.

the Big 12 would be the clear loser in Pac 10/Big Ten expansion, but if the Big Ten expands beyond 12, they're going to want to capture a NY area team (Rutgers, Syracuse or both).

In what situation does enough Big 12 teams leave that conference collapses? Where are all these teams going to go?

Why would the Big Ten pick the KC/STL markets with Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri over the NY market? Those two markets combined aren't as big as what you could get with SU/Rutgers.


My question was: If Texas remains in the Big 12, and ONLY Colorado leaves, why is TCU at the top of the list?

Compared to everyone else in the Big 12 except Baylor, TCU is tiny. They are private. Again, only Baylor is private in the Big 12. And The Big Eight didn't even want Baylor to begin with. They were forced to take Baylor and Tech to get Texas.

TCU's bringing the Big 12 what exactly? Presence in Dallas? Texas is the flagship school of the state. Texas already brings Dallas.

Would TCU even have the votes to be added? Assuming Texas politics forced the four Texas schools to back TCU's admission, you'd have seven other schools with a reason to vote no.

Half the league thinks the Big 12 is too Texas-centric already.
You'd also have the problem of divisions: Five Texas schools, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. How do you divide into two groups of six to retain the necessary rivalries for football? The plan would put a couple schools into the No column.

Not to mention, the four Texas schools probably don't want TCU. Why do you want TCU improving their lot in life if you're Texas or Baylor?


TCU is the trendy "They could be the 12th team if they lose Missouri or Colorado" pick by the media because they were in a BCS bowl. But it makes ZERO sense for the Big 12 to add TCU unless they lose Texas.

Colorado State is the logical choice if Colorado leaves, because Denver's the biggest market with an available team you wouldn't have covered. UNLV would probably be #2. Memphis, Louisville... Heck, CINCINNATI makes more sense than TCU. You'd at least get some basketball games on in East Coast Prime Time that way.

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Article out of Topeka suggesting that the Big 12 try and line up an alliance with another BCS conference like the PAC-10.Link at http://cjonline.com/sports/baseball/201 ... cant_other

Blog article from K-State country discussing relationship between Texas and its other Big 12 mates.Link at http://www.bringonthecats.com/2010/2/14 ... nder-siege

BTW,I believe this blogger has a good feel for what is happening with Texas, although it may be just a little more "nuanced".

Thanks
Freaked

I don't see 4 divisions. Still 2 with conferences going to a 9 game schedule - 7 games intradivision + 2 interdivision.