I don't think that's too far out there. Texas seems arrogant enough to want to be the center of attention (and they certainly have the money and the following to do so). They won't be the big man on campus in the SEC, Pac 10, or the Big 10. So them going independent doesn't seem that unrealistic. Of course, they need a home for Olympic sports which is why I would imagine them trying to make the Big 12 (or new Southwest) work. I don't think there will be a Big 12 north/Big East merger. I think the Big 10 will find a way to survive. That might mean absorbing C-USA west.
So just to throw something out there,
Let's say the Big 10 goes to 16, takes Kansas, Missouri, and two Big East schools. Big 12 at 8, Big East at 7 or 8.
Both will need to expand again. So C-USA gets ripped in two. Eastern schools end up in the Big East and C-USA west plus TCU ends up in the Big 12. Not everyone has to come, but might as well. So that's 15 schools in the Big 12. I like the idea of Oklahoma, Texas, and A&M going independent (again just cause they want to be the center, not sharing the spotlight with Florida or USC or someone else). So that's 15 (12 in football). Maybe there is another non football school they'd like (or someone else goes independent) or maybe one school doesn't get invited. Obviously would need to be worked out.
Big East let's say was at 8, losses TCU goes to 7. They pick up at least 3 C-USA east schools (ECU, Memphis, UCF if Nova upgraded before).
Of course, when the Big 10 goes to 16, the SEC will probably do the same and grab some ACC schools (Virginia?, VT?, Fla St?, Miami?). Meaning 4 Big East or C-USA teams will head to the ACC as replacements. Big East then grabs whatever C-USA (and maybe the Sun Belt) has to offer. Or they stop sponsoring football.
On the other hand, maybe the Big 12 goes with new markets. BYU, Air Force, Boise, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati could all be candidates if they want the Big 12 north to expand. Then at least C-USA isn't doomed, they'd only need a few replacements like Troy.