Should the Big East expand to 12 Members, by extending invitations to Villanova, UCF, and Houston. Under those circumstances- with the Big East satisfied, and Conference USA poached of two of its best programs- would the Mountain West Conference be in a position to raid Conference USA itself, by inviting UTEP & SMU?

There are several factors involved in this:
1st) The desire for a CUSA team to jump from one non-AQ conference to another, despite the MWC being arguably superior football wise.
2nd) Would the MWC expand to 12 teams and have a championship game- which could potentially be a stumbling block to a undefeated team, say perhaps a Boise St. falls to an Air Force in the MWC Conference Championship Game
3rd) Would the MWC invite two teams that could potentially way down its averages in the near term for AQ status
4th) Would SMU join a conference, and leave behind Tulsa and Rice(assuming already that Houston has accepted a Big East invite)
5th) Would UTEP join a conference which spurned the university upon its creation, and also potentially sacrifice its the torrent of donations its alums have gifted the University ever since it has joined CUSA?
6th) Would the MWC take these two schools and go to 12 or take instead a North Texas, San Jose St., Rice, or a Utah St?
7th) Would the MWC endanger its emerging alliance with CUSA in order to take these two universities?
8th) Would CUSA still be willing to align with the MWC once it had has taken two of its more solid programs?
9th) With the MWC at 12, and having the best non-AQ West of the Miss, be in a position to receive a provisional Aq Status?
10th) Would the potential windfall of money prompt the MWC into inviting these schools or discourage the MWC from extending invites?
11th) Should the MWC raid CUSA and take UTEP & SMU, would CUSA, adding likely a FIU, FAU, North Texas, and possibly Troy/MTSU/La Tech,-still be an attractive alliance partner for the MWC, or would the chasm of quality between the two conferences make it untenable for an alliance to be pursued between the two conferences?
12th) Would the MWC make a move on CUSA and potentially, take itself out of the running of receiving any BIG12 orphans should the Conference implode (If the MWC would be willing to expand to 14 and beyond this can be mitigated)

It all depends on what happens.

The key will be the CUSA TV contract. If they lost UCF and Houston for #11 and #12 (Villanova being #10) and there is a split, CUSA is down to 10 members. If you're UTEP and SMU, you ask yourself, is the MWC better for us? Or do we stay in CUSA, which might bring in 2 new schools from the pool of North Texas, UTSA, App St., Charlotte, JMU, Temple, UMass, etc? In reality, CUSA might be just fine TV contract-wise by swapping UCF and Houston for two of those schools. And if the TV contract only took a samll hit, it would still be better than the current MWC contract. Also need to remember that the NEW MWC contract with UTEP and SMU would need to grow enough to make all the current MWC more money and 2 new schools...and those two new schools would need to be getting more money than they currently do in CUSA to even leave. so there are two huge variables there.


Beyond those factors, the most important factor will indeed be a MWC AQ. If they have an AQ, then it would likely remedy the financial issues mentioned above. So if the MWC can have a huge year in 2011 (they'll need TCU and Boise St to finish in the top 12...hard since they'll play each other...means they can have a combined 1 loss)...and the MWC will need a 3rd school to finish ranked (SDSU? Colorado St with all the returning starters? Air Force?

I'll say this, if the MWC can finish with Boise St ranked #1-#3, TCU at #10-#12, SDSU or another school in the Top 20 and a 4th school sneaking in at #24 or #25, the MWC might be able to get the AQ. But that's a lot of work to be done and a lot of luck that will need to happen.

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Excellent points Quinn- I am on the boat that believes that the MWC needs to expand to include all the best non-AQ Football schools West of the Miss. to recieve AQ Status-if they can get AQ status, then Houston, UTEP, and every other Non-AQ will jump at it- that said, I believe if the MWC has as solid of a finish as you laid out- they can go to the suits in New York and say- the WAC is gutted, the Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA after we raid them, do not pose any serious threat to the system, if we bring in 2-6 more schools, would we be then be granted AQ status. That means taking UTEP, SMU, possibly Rice/Tulsa, and perhaps even getting BYU back as all sports member might do the trick. IMHO, TV sets and markets are the key to receiving AQ status- the MWC has growing instituitions in areas experiencing rapid population growth, I believe it is an eventuality that they will receive AQ, but that can come later rather than sooner, that said granting an enlargened MWC with all the remaining non-AQ schools who threaten the BCS system an AQ bid, will remove a major load off of the BCS' shoulders.

So do you believe there is any merit in my idea that bringing on 2-6 additional all sports schools would tip the scales and grant the MWC an AQ bid Quinn?

My personal opinion is that it's always quality over quantity. Curious what everyone else here thinks on that.

Also gotta figure that if the MWC did get the waiver and an AQ, you might see BYU knocking back on the door with flowers and roses. Of course they'd need to be able to keep their ESPN contract since it's better than the current MWC deal. Have to wonder if the MWC would take them back with a 12th school (like Houston, SMU or UTEP). Looking at how things played out, I think the MWC should have had better foresight to see what was going down. In the end, it might have made more sense to have BYU as the 10th school for all-sports, but give them some flexibility with their own TV contract rather than have 9 members and Hawaii as the 10th for football. It all depends on the financials though. But I would think BYU in for all-sports, even with their own TV concessions, would bring more money (via TV viewers) than the money Hawaii brings into the MWC for football (including the payouts for travel to hawaii).

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My views differ to a degree with yours on this one Quinn. Recently, there have been growing indictations that BYU-Big 12 marriage may have more legs than previsouly thought- Texas' deal was one of the indications, as it would free up BYU to continue to have its own channel. So lets assume that BYU goes to Big 12, followed by one of the following schools- Louisville, Memphis, Boise St, San Diego St., or Air Force. Should the Big 12 Poach either a Memphis from CUSA or a Lousiville from the Big East- the resulting loser would be CUSA- as they would have ended up losing 3 of its best circumstances. Furthermore once these programs are gone, lets say the MWC desires to go to 12 and invites SMU & UTEP. Rice and Tulsa, while being prestigous institutions with sizeable endownments, have a paltry market share in their respective cities- and most importantly have very small Enrollment/alumni, and could be left out of the mix. While your argument of quality over quantity is entirely justifiable, I just dont see that any remaining Non-Aq program West of the Mississippi giving enough value to the MWC for it to prompt the Suits in NY to give them the nod for AQ Status.- However should the MWC expand by taking in SMU, UTEP, and by 2015 admitting the best performing 2-4 schools out of the following North Texas, San Jose St., Montana, UTSA, Texas St, and Utah St. Then with somewhere between 14-16 Schools- all of which are solid programs in Larger Markets(Montana/Utah St. May be the exception as they would provide varying degrees of statwide interest). I just dont see how the BCS will veto that- particulary in light of the fact that both CUSA & the WAC are decimated and are no longer threats to the system. If this dream scenario for the MWC were to come to frutition with 14-16 solid programs they would be granted a Fiesta Bowl Tie in, shifting the Big 12 Tie in to the Cotton Bowl.

Love this post. I'm in almost complete agreement. After the BYU-Texas talks for the the Longhorns channel I too figured that would lead to BYU headed to the Big 12. Your 12th teams are perfect, maybe I would add UNLV, but I think it's between Air Force and Louisville (Memphis maybe if they could learn to win and fast).

If there is finally a split in the BE (and there should be, most of the top basketball schools play football already), C-USA is going to lose a lot. Let's say UCF and Houston head to the BE. Assuming that conference is pretty beat up, the MWC should be able to swoop in and grab SMU and/or UTEP. That will likely occur before any B12 expansion. This would give 5 of the 6 BCS conferences a championship game so the B12 will be forced to follow suit, thus adding BYU and a 12th team makes perfect sense.

And to agree even more (you're like my new favorite poster lol) the only way the MWC is getting an AQ is if the Cotton Bowl becomes a BCS game and the B12 switches its tie in. Splitting the pot 7 ways means less money for each conference and there is no way they will allow that.

I like how you're thinking down the road too. Quinn's right, C-USA will reload with SB and FCS schools like the ones he mentioned. They could probably get to 12 again and the SB might look for some FCS schools as well (maybe they'll try to get to 12 also, all the cool conferences are doing it).

If USU becomes the flagship school for the WAC then adding them to the MWC would make a ton of sense, especially if BYU doesn't come back. With SMU there is no need for North Texas and Rice seems like a waste. So #14 in my opinion would be between SJSU and Tulsa.

Oh and if this is indeed 5-10 years down the road (or more) UTSA and Montana could be under consideration as well. I see a lot of potential in UTSA to become Texas's best non AQ school.

Thanks Bud,

Good to see some strong agreement among us. I mull scenerios over, and this one seems to me as the most plausible- that said it could be entirely disregarded if the 16 Team BCS Superconferences happen, but should that not come to pass, I believe that the 12 Team limit for BCS conferences will end up happening. Emphasis on BCS Conferences- the MWC even with UTEP and SMU, cannot hold a candle against the overall clout of any AQ Conference. The BCS knows this, so likely it would have to offer the MWC some sort of comprimise, where it could become an AQ conference if took in certain schools and expanded to lets say 16. Imo, this would take place just before 2015, but potentially could begin in the coming months- but that would be inconvienent, as there would not be enough time to screen the potential candidtes. Imo, Should this happen, and this is of course contingent on Moderate sucess of the new teams(meaning a bowl trip and at least a consistent string of 7-8 win campaigns) The added programs are denoted with a star.

Pacific Division

Hawaii
Fresno St.
Boise St.
Nevada
UNLV
San Diego St.
San Jose St.*
Utah St.*

Mountain Division

Wyoming
Air Force
New Mexico
Colorado St.
UTEP*
SMU*
UTSA*
Montana*

Finally North Texas would be on Standby, as a potential Add, if one of the other schools dont manage to earn their way in.

With a Solid 16 Team conference, I believe that the MWC has a strong argument for a AQ Status with a Fiesta Bowl Tie-in.

I genuinely hope that SJSU gets on this last train, because likely another one wont be coming for decades.

Good Luck to the Spartans,

Sergio

I could see them going to 12 in that scenario, but I think if they had a good shot at BCS inclusion BYU wouldn't have left.

I have to think these schools are not going to be popular with the bowl side of the equation, so the BCS likely won't be working any special deals with the MWC.