My views differ to a degree with yours on this one Quinn. Recently, there have been growing indictations that BYU-Big 12 marriage may have more legs than previsouly thought- Texas' deal was one of the indications, as it would free up BYU to continue to have its own channel. So lets assume that BYU goes to Big 12, followed by one of the following schools- Louisville, Memphis, Boise St, San Diego St., or Air Force. Should the Big 12 Poach either a Memphis from CUSA or a Lousiville from the Big East- the resulting loser would be CUSA- as they would have ended up losing 3 of its best circumstances. Furthermore once these programs are gone, lets say the MWC desires to go to 12 and invites SMU & UTEP. Rice and Tulsa, while being prestigous institutions with sizeable endownments, have a paltry market share in their respective cities- and most importantly have very small Enrollment/alumni, and could be left out of the mix. While your argument of quality over quantity is entirely justifiable, I just dont see that any remaining Non-Aq program West of the Mississippi giving enough value to the MWC for it to prompt the Suits in NY to give them the nod for AQ Status.- However should the MWC expand by taking in SMU, UTEP, and by 2015 admitting the best performing 2-4 schools out of the following North Texas, San Jose St., Montana, UTSA, Texas St, and Utah St. Then with somewhere between 14-16 Schools- all of which are solid programs in Larger Markets(Montana/Utah St. May be the exception as they would provide varying degrees of statwide interest). I just dont see how the BCS will veto that- particulary in light of the fact that both CUSA & the WAC are decimated and are no longer threats to the system. If this dream scenario for the MWC were to come to frutition with 14-16 solid programs they would be granted a Fiesta Bowl Tie in, shifting the Big 12 Tie in to the Cotton Bowl.
Love this post. I'm in almost complete agreement. After the BYU-Texas talks for the the Longhorns channel I too figured that would lead to BYU headed to the Big 12. Your 12th teams are perfect, maybe I would add UNLV, but I think it's between Air Force and Louisville (Memphis maybe if they could learn to win and fast).
If there is finally a split in the BE (and there should be, most of the top basketball schools play football already), C-USA is going to lose a lot. Let's say UCF and Houston head to the BE. Assuming that conference is pretty beat up, the MWC should be able to swoop in and grab SMU and/or UTEP. That will likely occur before any B12 expansion. This would give 5 of the 6 BCS conferences a championship game so the B12 will be forced to follow suit, thus adding BYU and a 12th team makes perfect sense.
And to agree even more (you're like my new favorite poster lol) the only way the MWC is getting an AQ is if the Cotton Bowl becomes a BCS game and the B12 switches its tie in. Splitting the pot 7 ways means less money for each conference and there is no way they will allow that.
I like how you're thinking down the road too. Quinn's right, C-USA will reload with SB and FCS schools like the ones he mentioned. They could probably get to 12 again and the SB might look for some FCS schools as well (maybe they'll try to get to 12 also, all the cool conferences are doing it).
If USU becomes the flagship school for the WAC then adding them to the MWC would make a ton of sense, especially if BYU doesn't come back. With SMU there is no need for North Texas and Rice seems like a waste. So #14 in my opinion would be between SJSU and Tulsa.
Oh and if this is indeed 5-10 years down the road (or more) UTSA and Montana could be under consideration as well. I see a lot of potential in UTSA to become Texas's best non AQ school.
Good to see some strong agreement among us. I mull scenerios over, and this one seems to me as the most plausible- that said it could be entirely disregarded if the 16 Team BCS Superconferences happen, but should that not come to pass, I believe that the 12 Team limit for BCS conferences will end up happening. Emphasis on BCS
Conferences- the MWC even with UTEP and SMU, cannot hold a candle against the overall clout of any AQ Conference. The BCS knows this, so likely it would have to offer the MWC some sort of comprimise, where it could become an AQ conference if took in certain schools and expanded to lets say 16. Imo, this would take place just before 2015, but potentially could begin in the coming months- but that would be inconvienent, as there would not be enough time to screen the potential candidtes. Imo, Should this happen, and this is of course contingent on Moderate sucess of the new teams(meaning a bowl trip and at least a consistent string of 7-8 win campaigns) The added programs are denoted with a star.Pacific Division
San Diego St.
San Jose St.*
Utah St.*Mountain Division
Finally North Texas would be on Standby, as a potential Add, if one of the other schools dont manage to earn their way in.
With a Solid 16 Team conference, I believe that the MWC has a strong argument for a AQ Status with a Fiesta Bowl Tie-in.
I genuinely hope that SJSU gets on this last train, because likely another one wont be coming for decades.
Good Luck to the Spartans,