South Dakota (and North Dakota) becomes a Division I member at the start of the 2012-13 academic year. Nebraska-Omaha (the first Division II upgrade after the moratorium) becomes a Division I member at the start of the 2015-16 academic year. Once a school completes its transitional status, it becomes an active member unless if subject to a penalty under APR.

So if UMKC and ORU left:

North Dakota State (Active)
South Dakota (2012)
South Dakota State (Active)
Nebraska-Omaha (2016)
Western Illinois (Active)
IUPUI (Active)
IPFW (Active)
Oakland, MI (Active)

By the time UMKC left, South Dakota will count as an active member.

If further losses happen, here is the glass to be broken in case of emergency:

Chicago State (Active) - forced to resign from the Summit when it was the Mid-Continent, still very much near the center of the conference footprint
UTPA (Active) - dismissed from the Sun Belt in 1998 for failure to maintain certification with the NCAA
Houston Baptist (2011) - completed reclassfication from NAIA, now an active member of Division I
UALR (Active) - content as a member of the Sun Belt, but literally the odd school out in an FBS conference; may be on Southland's radar as well, and doesn't make much sense without ORU and UMKC
North Dakota (2012) - still has nickname issue to resolve, and would need a place to park its football program
Utah Valley (Active) - would prefer the Big Sky or WAC
Longwood (Active) - would probably be happy to be in a conference not named the Great West
NJIT (Active) - would be happy to get out of the Great West
Eastern Illinois (Active) - probably content in the OVC, but I'm sure MVFC membership (perhaps alongside North Dakota?) might be the motivation they need to leave the geographically tight OVC

If UMKC and ORU leave, adding North Dakota also screws up travel pairings, as Nebraska-Omaha would likely get paired with Western Illinois.

If ORU left, that puts them at 9 (with UNO). Not really any good targets, unless they can convince MVFC to add UND and convince UND that the SL would be better for them than the Big Sky.

I suppose they could see if Chicago State has it's act together yet - they are a good bridge between east and west.

If the OVC doesn't take NKU, they would be a possibility, as would Bellarmine if they moved up.

Senior reports guy insists that NKU is going to the OVC. There is another that wants to be D-I. Bellarmine (aka Notre Dame of Louisville) who just won the D-II national title in bball last year would join the Summit if invited.

However I think someone should tell GVSU to move to D-I, they have 25,000 students and are great at fb and bball. N.Dakota, GVSU could join the MVFC for 12. Add all 3 as Summit members for 12, go E/W div.

Been prepping for some time now that ORU would leave the Summit for the Southland. It's always made sense. And it could be a positive for the Summit too. They would really tighten that footprint with ORU gone. It's odd because at this level of college sports, that's often a positive as it decreases travel costs and helps build the conference brand. There are talks of the tourney moving to Ohama, but I think a swap between Omaha and Sioux Falls is safe enough to keep the identity: the Summit IS the conference for this region of the country.

GVSU is not looking to move, I was just saying it would be nice for them to and UND could move to the Summit/MVFC w GVSU.

I have no idea if either school would look to move up to Division I in the near future, but I think it is worth noting that Minnesota-Duluth and St. Cloud State are the two Minnesota schools in the NCHC. That puts them above the rest of the D-II Minnesota schools, and if they ever wanted to move up the Summit would be their natural home. Fellow NCHC member Nebraska-Omaha will already be there if they decided to make the move.

Any word on Wisconsin-Milwaukee starting football? I know the new AD said back in April that it was on the radar, but haven't heard anything sense. Adding UWM would allow North Dakota to join the MVFC, as the latter would move from 10 to 12:

MVFC North - North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota, South Dakota State, UWM, Northern Iowa
MVFC South - Missouri State, Wesern Illinois, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Indiana State, Youngstown State

Missouri State and UWM could be swapped for West and East Divisions, not that divisions mean much at the FCS level. UWM would of course keep its other sports parked in the Horizon League, while North Dakota would replace Oral Roberts in the Summit League should ORU leave for the Southland.