CAA Realignment

accseahawk · **Posted:** Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:42 am

Quinn wrote:

For the non-football schools in the CAA, I do see a huge advantage in GMU and VCU joining the A10...for the schools too. It's a basketball-forst/only conference and those schools are basketball schools, not football. UD/JMU will always dominate the CAA landscape in regards to political pressure due to their football programs. And think about it: if you're GMU/VCU and you have 4 schools in UD/JMU/ODU and GSU considering FBS (leaving the CAA), wouldn't it make more sense to be proactive and join something that will always be basketball first?

Sure, the A10 would be there in the future...but both schools would be wise to look earlier.

We know that Hofstra and NU WANT to be it he A10. And if the CAA 4 FB schools left the CAA, all of a sudden GMU/VCU are out of options if the A10 made other moves to 16. Now VCU/GMU are stuck with the likes of little NU/Drexel, stuck with Towson and W&M...and with UNCW in the south holding on...although even at that point, they'd be on the phone with the Socon.

The flight risks of the CAA football schools are why it makes little sense to consider the idea that a10 schools would leave the A10 for the CAA. Because in the end, the CAA if they lose those 4 schools would be VCU/GMU and nothing but bottomfeeders. Meanwhile, in the A10, even the bottom feeders are in a better spot: Fordham, at the very bottom, hired away Hofstra (of the CAA) coach (and Duquesne hired NU coach Everhart a few years back). St. B is in a tough spot, at the bottom. But after FU and StB, the "bottomfeeders" end up being programs like UMass and URI, whom have been in the Final Four and Elite 8, ranked #1 in the country before (UMass) and URI ranked high as well. Not bad history for a current bottomfeeder. Think Hofstra, Towson, NU, W&M, Drexel, UNCW, etc will be at that level one day?

The last paragraph is where we disagree. I think the A10 has more "flight risks" than the CAA. The CAA football members are not going anywhere thanks to the CAA taking over the football sponsorship from the A10. That is so crucial because it holds the football schools on place and gives the CAA leverage over schools like Charlotte and Richmond. Thanks to the invite to upgrade rule, the ODU, JMU, UD, and Ga St (also Charlotte and App St) can't just decide to upgrade and have to wait for the MAC or Sunbelt to work out a deal with them. This is why it is in Charlotte's best interest to join the CAA as if the CAA can get 8 schools interested in moving up to FBS they can begin to work out some sort of waiver with the NCAA to get around this rule.

The A10 on the other hand is full of flight risks. Umass and Temple both want Big East (Temple being listed as on deck while UMass being the logical replacement for UConn once the ACC scoops them up) as do Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis, and Richmond with the Catholic Big East Schoolh. With the A10 being the Big East's bullpen I would be very hesitant to join a conference where all the best members would leave at the drop of a hat if another conference were to call with an invitation if I were VCU and GMU, especially when you can use your leverage to get the schools you want to be in a conference to join you. Hofstra and Northeastern obviously desire to be in the A10 (as they should) which is why it would be nice if the A10 and CAA would work something out without any "raiding"

Quinn · **Joined:** Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am **Posts:** 3762

acc, the difference is in definition of flight risks. Temple, yes, they are. Umass? No. And the only way other A10 schools are risks is if there is a drastic change in the form of a Big East split. Which as we know, will cause a huge trickle down.

Meanwhile, the CAA has flight risks in that they have football schools who have expressed different levels of interest in upgrading (4 schools). And yes, the MAC is an option since the conference hasn't indicated that they would be against adding more schools. Sure, those schools could remain in the CAA for other sports. But in time, it becomes everyones best interest to consider something new. But that something "new" can only happen if the schools join the MAC first. And more importantly, there are only 4 CAA schools who have what it takes to be FBS. Towson, W&M...not a chance. So it's still only 4 schools who would need to team with schools like Charlotte, UMass, App St, etc...any schools in/joining FBS that are without a home.

In the end, it's the same problem: if there are opportunities for A10 schools with a Big East split, there will also be opportunities for CAA non-football schools. It's not a stretch to think that if you have 4 schools that could leave the CAA (football schools) then the 2 solid basketball schools in VCU and GMU would consider their options too. In the end, it's not a stretch to think that even if the A10 lost Xavier and Temple, that the A10 would still be a better fit for those schools...being with Richmond, Charlotte, GW, UMass, St. Joes, Dayton, St. Louis, etc.

Much better than the risk of this if UD/JMU/ODU/GSU leave:
Northeastern
Hofstra
Drexel
Towson
GMU
VCU
W&M
UNCW

or the lineup I listed in this thread, even without Temple/Xavier.

accseahawk · **Posted:** Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:51 pm

Quinn wrote:

acc, the difference is in definition of flight risks. Temple, yes, they are. Umass? No. And the only way other A10 schools are risks is if there is a drastic change in the form of a Big East split. Which as we know, will cause a huge trickle down.

Meanwhile, the CAA has flight risks in that they have football schools who have expressed different levels of interest in upgrading (4 schools). And yes, the MAC is an option since the conference hasn't indicated that they would be against adding more schools. Sure, those schools could remain in the CAA for other sports. But in time, it becomes everyones best interest to consider something new. But that something "new" can only happen if the schools join the MAC first. And more importantly, there are only 4 CAA schools who have what it takes to be FBS. Towson, W&M...not a chance. So it's still only 4 schools who would need to team with schools like Charlotte, UMass, App St, etc...any schools in/joining FBS that are without a home.

In the end, it's the same problem: if there are opportunities for A10 schools with a Big East split, there will also be opportunities for CAA non-football schools. It's not a stretch to think that if you have 4 schools that could leave the CAA (football schools) then the 2 solid basketball schools in VCU and GMU would consider their options too. In the end, it's not a stretch to think that even if the A10 lost Xavier and Temple, that the A10 would still be a better fit for those schools...being with Richmond, Charlotte, GW, UMass, St. Joes, Dayton, St. Louis, etc.

Much better than the risk of this if UD/JMU/ODU/GSU leave:
Northeastern
Hofstra
Drexel
Towson
GMU
VCU
W&M
UNCW

or the lineup I listed in this thread, even without Temple/Xavier.

I highly doubt the CAA will allow football schools to upgrade to FBS in the MAC for football only while keeping their other sports in the CAA. That would cause so much long term instability that it would be better to lose the school outright. I just don't agree at all about the flight risks of the CAA 4 you mentioned. They may go FBS one day but it is such a long way off. App St. is the only school with official FBS plans and they are going nowhere with it for the time being.

To me Xaiver, Dayton, St. Louis, Temple, and Umass are much bigger flight risks and these are the core A10 schools that GMU and VCU would want to be associated with. VCU can ask Charlotte how much fun the current A10 is for attendance and non revenue sports.

It would be much easier for the CAA to grab Charlotte and Fordham (both who want/need an FCS football home), after the A10 is raided, than it would be for GMU and VCU to join a watered down A10.

dbackjon · **Joined:** Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:50 pm **Posts:** 267

Quinn, we get it, you're a fan of a school in the A-10.

But you over estimate the value of the A-10, especially if Temple goes, and the BE splits and grabs UMass, Dayton, Xavier etc.

CAA is much more likely to be the center that expands than contracts around.

accseahawk · **Posted:** Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:59 pm

The CAA also has a nice regional deal with Comcast, which would be appealing to many of the current A10 schools, a respectable deal with ESPN (for a non FBS league).

Also, the CAA sponsors a ton of non revenue sports which might be attractive as well.

Fresno St. Alum · **Posted:** Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:04 pm

If the A-10 only loses Temple, the A-10(13) would still raid the CAA if they want. If Xavier, Temple, Dayton, leave then it would be harder but I'm sure they could still land Hofstra, Northeastern who would fit that A-10 better than the current CAA. Still if the A-10 lost 3-4 teams, they could just sit at 10, plus the CAA would have 12 so they wouldn't feel the need to add anyone. Really the CAA/A10/AE fb schools should be 1 all sports conf. and the A10/CAA/AE bball another conf.

Quinn · **Joined:** Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am **Posts:** 3762

dbackjon wrote:

Quinn, we get it, you're a fan of a school in the A-10.

But you over estimate the value of the A-10, especially if Temple goes, and the BE splits and grabs UMass, Dayton, Xavier etc.

CAA is much more likely to be the center that expands than contracts around.

You sure you don't want to include some other unlikely situations like maybe that the BCS conferences split from the NCAA?

Of course if 5 or more of the top A10 schools left it would be a problem. Common sense tells us that. But the likelihood that 4 or more A10 schools left, which is your premise, is so out there. It would take a Big East split AND expansion by the non-football side. As we know, they would be taking a huge paycut in losing the football schools left (Uconn, Louisville, etc). So it is illogical to assume that a conference whose schools will be cutting their revenue in half AT BEST, would want more mouths to feed. Which is why the idea that there would be expansion to 12 from the basketball side to be beyond unlikely.

But even if this miracle did happen, it doesn't change a thing: that the non-football programs of VCU and GMU would be wise to find the best opportunities for them, without the football agenda. VCU has been left out in the cold before, it can happen again.

dbackjon · **Joined:** Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:50 pm **Posts:** 267

It is more likely that GMU and VCU add football in the next five years.

accseahawk · **Posted:** Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:29 pm

Fresno St. Alum wrote:

If the A-10 only loses Temple, the A-10(13) would still raid the CAA if they want. If Xavier, Temple, Dayton, leave then it would be harder but I'm sure they could still land Hofstra, Northeastern who would fit that A-10 better than the current CAA. Still if the A-10 lost 3-4 teams, they could just sit at 10, plus the CAA would have 12 so they wouldn't feel the need to add anyone. Really the CAA/A10/AE fb schools should be 1 all sports conf. and the A10/CAA/AE bball another conf.

raiding the caa is a broad term....the A10 could take Hofstra and Northeastern now and both schools would jump at the move. Drexel too is another one. However, I don't think the A10 could just come in and take JMU, ODU, VCU, or GMU. They would be giving up a lot more than Hofstra and Northeastern including great geography, a lot of money in NCAA revenue plus entrance and exit fees, and (for ODU) a home for FCS football.

Fresno St. Alum · **Posted:** Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:48 pm

accseahawk wrote:

Fresno St. Alum wrote:

If the A-10 only loses Temple, the A-10(13) would still raid the CAA if they want. If Xavier, Temple, Dayton, leave then it would be harder but I'm sure they could still land Hofstra, Northeastern who would fit that A-10 better than the current CAA. Still if the A-10 lost 3-4 teams, they could just sit at 10, plus the CAA would have 12 so they wouldn't feel the need to add anyone. Really the CAA/A10/AE fb schools should be 1 all sports conf. and the A10/CAA/AE bball another conf.

raiding the caa is a broad term....the A10 could take Hofstra and Northeastern now and both schools would jump at the move. Drexel too is another one. However, I don't think the A10 could just come in and take JMU, ODU, VCU, or GMU. They would be giving up a lot more than Hofstra and Northeastern including great geography, a lot of money in NCAA revenue plus entrance and exit fees, and (for ODU) a home for FCS football.

If they only lost Temple I think they could land GMU, VCU. ODU might have a problem like getting kicked out of CAA fb if they did.

Xavier, UMass, Dayton, Richmond, Charlotte, St.Louis are nothing to sneeze at. CAA in bball, is ODU, VCU, GMU, and and and and no one.

Quinn · **Joined:** Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am **Posts:** 3762

Fresno St. Alum wrote:

accseahawk wrote:

Fresno St. Alum wrote:

If the A-10 only loses Temple, the A-10(13) would still raid the CAA if they want. If Xavier, Temple, Dayton, leave then it would be harder but I'm sure they could still land Hofstra, Northeastern who would fit that A-10 better than the current CAA. Still if the A-10 lost 3-4 teams, they could just sit at 10, plus the CAA would have 12 so they wouldn't feel the need to add anyone. Really the CAA/A10/AE fb schools should be 1 all sports conf. and the A10/CAA/AE bball another conf.

raiding the caa is a broad term....the A10 could take Hofstra and Northeastern now and both schools would jump at the move. Drexel too is another one. However, I don't think the A10 could just come in and take JMU, ODU, VCU, or GMU. They would be giving up a lot more than Hofstra and Northeastern including great geography, a lot of money in NCAA revenue plus entrance and exit fees, and (for ODU) a home for FCS football.

If they only lost Temple I think they could land GMU, VCU. ODU might have a problem like getting kicked out of CAA fb if they did.

Xavier, UMass, Dayton, Richmond, Charlotte, St.Louis are nothing to sneeze at. CAA in bball, is ODU, VCU, GMU, and and and and no one.

which is exactly the case. It's perception. People on the forums hear the word "CAA" and think of the media exposure generated and assume that the CAA is larger than it is. It's those 3 programs you just mentioned. That's it. And two of them are non-football schools right now. And even if VCU and GMU add football, it's under the assumption that the "football first 4" (ODU on the list due to all the great work they've done with the football program) will stay. Meanwhile, JMU said they expect to be FBS within 2 years. If they leave, of course Delaware will likely follow rather than be left behind.

But it goes back to perception. The CAA is those 3 programs. Even when others have done well, they are still a tier below. Because even with the GMU/VCU success of the past 6 years (and ODU too), it's not like other programs have taken the step up.

So the question the CAA should be asking is what happens if GMU and VCU left? They'd be hurtin' in the hoops department.

The problem is stability: nobody has it.

The A10 made a bold move in expanding to 14 to prepare for a Big East split so they wouldn't have to expand from outside. But the split never happened. And 1 by 1, the Big East football schools are leaving.

In a sense, a split HAS happened...but the split has been in the form of football schools leaving.

If Uconn and Rutgers end up in the ACC, something STILL on the table...and if Louisville does become part of the Big 12 (with say BYU for #12), all of a sudden the Big East split WOULD have happened with only Cincy, Rutgers and USF left that play football.

Cincy means no need for Xavier. Nova means no need for Temple. ND leaves for Big 12. Total membership would still be 10, the ideal number for basketball. And that means it's less likely that A10 schools would even be considered.

So at some point, once the Big East is no more for football, the A10 WILL indeed have stability. And at that point, if you're VCU and GMU, and the rest of your conference is doing little to improve the CAA for your sport, basketball, don't you start to look at this option?

Quote:

UMass
URI
St. Bonventure
Temple

Charlotte
Richmond
*VCU
*GMU

GW
St. Joes
Lasalle
Fordham

Duquesne
Xavier
Dayton
St. Louis

You get the UMass/Temple history anchor in one pod, with northeast and a philly rep.
You get a southern pod with the 2 richmond schools, charlotte and GMU as the DC rep there.
You get a pod with GW to rep DC, FU for NYC, and the 2 other philly schools.
You get the midwest pod with the schools from Pitt, Ohio and St. Louis.

Conf championship is in NYC for now. But you strongly consider moving to DC for the 2019 season with 2 schools there, 2 in nearby Richmond, close drive from philly where there are 3 schools, etc.

Of course Bulter/Hostra might be better picks than VCU/GMU anyways as butler tops both VCU/GMU in national prestige and with the A10 tourney in NYC, Hofstra would be a good addition NOW (no NYC tourney, no need for Hofstra).

accseahawk · **Posted:** Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:31 pm

Quinn wrote:

which is exactly the case. It's perception. People on the forums hear the word "CAA" and think of the media exposure generated and assume that the CAA is larger than it is. It's those 3 programs you just mentioned. That's it. And two of them are non-football schools right now. And even if VCU and GMU add football, it's under the assumption that the "football first 4" (ODU on the list due to all the great work they've done with the football program) will stay. Meanwhile, JMU said they expect to be FBS within 2 years. If they leave, of course Delaware will likely follow rather than be left behind.

But it goes back to perception. The CAA is those 3 programs. Even when others have done well, they are still a tier below. Because even with the GMU/VCU success of the past 6 years (and ODU too), it's not like other programs have taken the step up.

So the question the CAA should be asking is what happens if GMU and VCU left? They'd be hurtin' in the hoops department.

The problem is stability: nobody has it.

The A10 made a bold move in expanding to 14 to prepare for a Big East split so they wouldn't have to expand from outside. But the split never happened. And 1 by 1, the Big East football schools are leaving.

In a sense, a split HAS happened...but the split has been in the form of football schools leaving.

If Uconn and Rutgers end up in the ACC, something STILL on the table...and if Louisville does become part of the Big 12 (with say BYU for #12), all of a sudden the Big East split WOULD have happened with only Cincy, Rutgers and USF left that play football.

Cincy means no need for Xavier. Nova means no need for Temple. ND leaves for Big 12. Total membership would still be 10, the ideal number for basketball. And that means it's less likely that A10 schools would even be considered.

So at some point, once the Big East is no more for football, the A10 WILL indeed have stability. And at that point, if you're VCU and GMU, and the rest of your conference is doing little to improve the CAA for your sport, basketball, don't you start to look at this option?

Nit Picking...you listed Rutgers as both in the ACC and Big East....but i get your point.

I just don't agree with it.

The CAA is doing things to improve its basketball, including the 60-40% revenue split you mentioned earlier, which I don't think the smaller, private A10 schools would be a fan of. The CAA losing ODU and JMU is 2 years is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. The only school in the CAA with a logical FBS home is Ga St and they are nowhere near the lynchpin of the conference. The Big East, once it sheds all its football schools to the Big 12 or ACC will turn to the A10 who has been housing teams that would fit nicely in both an eastern (UMass or Richmond or Temple) and western (Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis) 12 team no football Big East.

Your whole premise for CAA instability is not likely (FCS upgrading to MAC???) while my premise for an instable Big East/A10 is happening now. VCU and GMU or not going to give up all the revenue they have earned for the CAA to join the A10 mess. It would be better for them to wait and pick the A10 schools they want that are not scooped up by a reconfigured Big East than it would be for 2 large, public southern schoools to join a private Catholic northeastern/midwestern based conference. For an example see Charlotte who, if they would get rid of their pride, would be a NATURAL, SUCCESSFUL fit in the CAA.

Quinn · **Joined:** Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am **Posts:** 3762

accseahawk wrote:

Quinn wrote:

which is exactly the case. It's perception. People on the forums hear the word "CAA" and think of the media exposure generated and assume that the CAA is larger than it is. It's those 3 programs you just mentioned. That's it. And two of them are non-football schools right now. And even if VCU and GMU add football, it's under the assumption that the "football first 4" (ODU on the list due to all the great work they've done with the football program) will stay. Meanwhile, JMU said they expect to be FBS within 2 years. If they leave, of course Delaware will likely follow rather than be left behind.

But it goes back to perception. The CAA is those 3 programs. Even when others have done well, they are still a tier below. Because even with the GMU/VCU success of the past 6 years (and ODU too), it's not like other programs have taken the step up.

So the question the CAA should be asking is what happens if GMU and VCU left? They'd be hurtin' in the hoops department.

The problem is stability: nobody has it.

The A10 made a bold move in expanding to 14 to prepare for a Big East split so they wouldn't have to expand from outside. But the split never happened. And 1 by 1, the Big East football schools are leaving.

In a sense, a split HAS happened...but the split has been in the form of football schools leaving.

If Uconn and Rutgers end up in the ACC, something STILL on the table...and if Louisville does become part of the Big 12 (with say BYU for #12), all of a sudden the Big East split WOULD have happened with only Cincy, Rutgers and USF left that play football.

Cincy means no need for Xavier. Nova means no need for Temple. ND leaves for Big 12. Total membership would still be 10, the ideal number for basketball. And that means it's less likely that A10 schools would even be considered.

So at some point, once the Big East is no more for football, the A10 WILL indeed have stability. And at that point, if you're VCU and GMU, and the rest of your conference is doing little to improve the CAA for your sport, basketball, don't you start to look at this option?

Nit Picking...you listed Rutgers as both in the ACC and Big East....but i get your point.

I just don't agree with it.

The CAA is doing things to improve its basketball, including the 60-40% revenue split you mentioned earlier, which I don't think the smaller, private A10 schools would be a fan of. The CAA losing ODU and JMU is 2 years is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. The only school in the CAA with a logical FBS home is Ga St and they are nowhere near the lynchpin of the conference. The Big East, once it sheds all its football schools to the Big 12 or ACC will turn to the A10 who has been housing teams that would fit nicely in both an eastern (UMass or Richmond or Temple) and western (Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis) 12 team no football Big East.

Your whole premise for CAA instability is not likely (FCS upgrading to MAC???) while my premise for an instable Big East/A10 is happening now. VCU and GMU or not going to give up all the revenue they have earned for the CAA to join the A10 mess. It would be better for them to wait and pick the A10 schools they want that are not scooped up by a reconfigured Big East than it would be for 2 large, public southern schoools to join a private Catholic northeastern/midwestern based conference. For an example see Charlotte who, if they would get rid of their pride, would be a NATURAL, SUCCESSFUL fit in the CAA.

My point being that people want to still talk about the Big East splitting and raiding the A10 for replacements. But the Big East split has already just about happened.

There are two paths the Big East is on now:
1) it loses more football schools and becomes a non-football conference...in which case the Big East is all set with no A10 schools added via expansion
2) The Big East expands with 4 or more all-sports members. This is on the table. But the fact this is even an option tells us that the Big East is not going to split because all parties have agreed to the process...meaning hoops schools aren't walking away and football schools still want the northeast presence via the non-football schools.

Either way, it appears less likely that the A10 will be losing any schools beyond Temple...the only current FBS school in the A10.

As for JMU, it's not a matter of opinion. It's a matter of JMU's president saying that he expects them to be FBS within 18-24 months (said it last month).

Fresno St. Alum · **Posted:** Tue Oct 25, 2011 3:29 pm

we had this same damn argument on the FCS board 7 months ago. A10>CAA. Quinn list all the Conf. RPI ratings and NCAA bids.

Quinn may be an A10 homer and Seahawk and CAA homer, I'm not, A10 is higher on the ladder of NCAA conferences. Almost everyone on the ncaabbs board told me that the ACC could not raid the BE. I bet a guy, I won.

The WAC had 4 good schools Boise, Hawaii, Fresno, Nevada. We hear oh the WAC is just as good as the MWC. The MWC higher on the ladder fixed that problem.

So unless the BE splits and adds 4 or 5 A10 schools, the ladder will stay the same.

Quinn · **Joined:** Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am **Posts:** 3762

Fresno St. Alum wrote:

we had this same damn argument on the FCS board 7 months ago. A10>CAA. Quinn list all the Conf. RPI ratings and NCAA bids.

Quinn may be an A10 homer and Seahawk and CAA homer, I'm not, A10 is higher on the ladder of NCAA conferences. Almost everyone on the ncaabbs board told me that the ACC could not raid the BE. I bet a guy, I won.

The WAC had 4 good schools Boise, Hawaii, Fresno, Nevada. We hear oh the WAC is just as good as the MWC. The MWC higher on the ladder fixed that problem.

So unless the BE splits and adds 4 or 5 A10 schools, the ladder will stay the same.

It's not a matter of those facts. It's a matter that at some point, people assuming the A10 is "unstable" and at risk of losing members...at some point they have to throw in the towel because it doesn't seem like it will happen (since the entire premise is on the big east splitting and taking A10 schools). Much has happened over the past few weeks and like it or hate, the Big East past is being set...and the A10ers being excluded.

CAA Realignment

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