I think that after this current round of realignment, this is how the conferences will look:

Current BCS Conferences

SEC
East - West
Florida - LSU
Georgia - Auburn
South Carolina - Texas A&M
Tennessee - Alabama
Vanderbilt - Ole Miss
Kentucky - Mississippi State
Missouri - Arkansas


Big Ten
Leaders - Legends
Penn State - Nebraska
Ohio State - Michigan
Indiana - Michigan State
Purdue - Iowa
Illinois - Northwestern
Wisconsin - Minnesota


Pac 12 South
Colorado
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State
Southern California
UCLA

Pac 12 North
California
Stanford
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State


ACC
Atlantic - Coastal
Florida State - Miami (Fl.)
Clemson - Georgia Tech
North Carolina State - North Carolina
Wake Forest - Duke
Maryland - Virginia
Pittsburgh - Virginia Tech
Boston College - Connecticut (I know that BC would have a fit about this... but it makes sense)
Syracuse - Rutgers


Big 12
East - West
Texas - Oklahoma
Texas Tech - Oklahoma State
Texas Christian - Brigham Young*
Baylor - Kansas State
West Virginia - Kansas
Louisville - Iowa State

* BYU is 12th football-only member of the B12; ND is 12th all-sports member.



6th BCS Mega-Conference

MWC West
Hawaii
Fresno State
San Jose State
San Diego State
Nevada
UNLV
Boise State

MWC East
Utah State
Wyoming
Air Force
Colorado State
New Mexico
UTEP
Tulsa

CUSA West
Southern Methodist
Houston
Rice
Tulane
Southern Miss
Memphis
UAB

CUSA East
Central Florida
South Florida
East Carolina
Cincinnati
Marshall
Temple
Massachusetts


Independents
Notre Dame
Army
Navy


And honestly, at this point, the WAC, MAC, and Sun Belt are sort of irrelevant to FBS football...

How do you see it all ending up after this round of realignment? I think that eventually the the 16 team mega-conferences (P16, BIG, SEC, ACC) will form, but that it may be 10-20 years down the road...

ACC will reorganize itself into a north-south alignment. It just makes more sense with a 16-team conference. They will also go to a 9-game conference format.

If they are allowed (which I seriously doubt), they will also go to a 4-division format, otherwise it'll be a north-south format.

2 Division format
ACC North - Boston College, Connecticut, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
ACC South - Clemson, Duke, Florida St., Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Wake Forest

4 Division Format (maybe informal for scheduling purposes)
ACC Division A - Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
ACC Division B - Maryland, Rutgers, Virginia, Virginia Tech
ACC Division C - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Wake Forest
ACC Division D - Clemson, Florida St., Georgia Tech, Miami

I'd further try to set up these 8 Rivalries
Boston College - Connecticut
Pittsburgh - Syracuse
Maryland - Rutgers (leftovers)
Virginia - Virginia Tech
Duke - Wake Forest
North Carolina - North Carolina St.
Clemson - Georgia Tech
Florida St. - Miami

This is roughly what the PAC-16 would have done.

Other than that.

I don't think that the Big-12 is stable. It's gotten more stable, but I don't think it's stable. And in fact, if Texas was willing to come in as an equal partner to the PAC-12, rather than trying to get them in as a better part and keep their guaranteed revenue source. The PAC-12 was saying that it was a non-starter. In another 3 or 4 years after the Longhorn Network fails, I think that there will be another push by the PAC-12 to goto 16 teams with the 4 Texoma schools (Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St.).

The Big East is basically dead. Pittsburgh, Syracuse, TCU and West Virginia are out of it as far as a football conference. They find someway to keep around as a basketball conference, but I think they're done as a football conference. That leaves only 5 teams (Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Connecticut, Rutgers). Connecticut and Rutgers are looking to move to the ACC, or the Big Ten (if they come calling), so that leaves 3 teams, and Louisville may goto the Big 12 if they get BYU or Missouri stand.

I've figured out the divisions for 2 Super-conferences (PAC-16 and ACC). Can't really figure out who the SEC take other than Missouri and Texas A&M. The ACC, I think, has solidified itself enough to stave off an SEC raid. The SEC's best propsects are Virginia Tech, and Florida St., I think. I'm not sure that they'd go if the SEC came calling.

If the Big East, Mountain West, and Conference USA merge together to form a super conference that would reduce the number of conferences down to 9. Lets say the MAC, Sun Belt, and WAC were to merge together to form a 32 team super conference (4 divisions with 8 teams per division). That would reduce the number of conferences down to 7. I wonder if the champion of a 32 team mid-major super conference would have a legitamate argument to get AQ status for a BCS bowl game?

National Championship: #1 verses #2
Rose Bowl: Big Ten verses Pac Twelve
Sugar Bowl: ACC verses SEC
Orange Bowl: Big Twelve verses Big East/MW/Conference USA merger
Fiesta Bowl: MAC/WAC/Sun Belt merger verses At-large team

Notre Dame, BYU, Army, and Navy would most likely join a conference at that point. All 120 teams would have a realistic opprotunity to go to a BCS bowl game, and we would be one step closer to a playoff.

I think 16 would work great for the ACC.

But I think they could just go traditional with 8/8 split:

Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami
Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida St.

Basically just the original Big East as 1 division, and ACC as the other. Only sacrifice would be Maryland to the north. Only state split is Virginia (rightly so as the middle state..1 in north, 1 in south). And for the homerun state of Florida, both divisions get a share:UM in north (where they were before) and FSU in the south.


Can go with a 9 game schedule with 1 crossover...means Miami/FSU and UVA/VATech each year...
So other option is 10 game schedule with the 1-2 games versus the other division as "OOC" games for the record. That way, you play the 7 opponents the same as every other school in the division does. Winner goes to championship game, as fair as fair can be.
With the 2 "OOC" ACC games, it means you can setup rivalry games for schools, plus a rotation each year. So once every 7 year, Uconn would play Clemson, for example.

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I didn't think this was possible, but I'm 100% in agreement with Hawkeye.

I must point out that I have seen mention of La. Tech coming into the 32, and UMass not.

If this arrangement came to pass, I would really like it, and I think it would lead to a fair degree of long-term stability.

@ Quinn - I agree with you that a N/S split for a potential ACC16 would make a lot more sense; however, I don't know if the ACC would want to have basically the BE redux as a division.

@ tute - Hmm... LT would work too. I just think that there is more potential to establishing some semblance of a presence in New England for the new MWC/CUSA hybrid. Although LT probably brings more to the table than some like SJSU, I know that CUSA has turned their nose up at LT in the past (and the choices for the MWC out west are pretty limited, which makes SJSU a bit more attractive). It would not surprise me to see the MWC/CUSA stop at 24, if possible... it will depend on how things play out with the current BE/B12/ACC/SEC shuffle.

There are significant problems with your theory...

1. There will be no protected cross-divisional games. There just aren't enough games to do it with. Persuming a 9-game conference schedule, if you have 2 divisions of 8 teams, you have the following: 7 Divisional Games, 2 cross-over games. This means that Maryland will only play Virginia once every 7 years in Football if there is a cross-divisional setup under your system. And without that Protected Cross-Divisional Game, you'd destroy the rivalry between Miami and Florida St, and between Virginia Tech and Virginia.

2. Miami will never agree to this, as it would significantly increase their travel costs in relation to every other school. While every other school would have 6-7 of their games against teams around them, Miami would have 7 of it's games in schools as far away as Boston (1261 miles), Syracuse (1218 miles), Storrs (1199 miles), New Brunswick (1072), Pittsburgh (1015), College Park (835), and Blacksburg (793). This would put a significant burden to be born solely upon Miami.

Summary:
ACC +2 (UConn and Rutgers)
Big 10 +0
Big 12 +3 (Louisville, Cincy, Notre Dame (non football) )
Pac 12 +0 (long term plus 2 or 4 if the Nevada or New Mexico schools improve)
SEC +0 (long term maybe add 2 to the west)
C-USA/MWC +5 (USF, LA Tech, SJSU, NMSU, USU, Temple)
Sun Belt +2 (Tex St, UTSA, possibly minus UALR)
MAC -1 (Temple)
Big East (either ends football operations and adds basketball schools or adds schools that sponsor football and creates a new Eastern non AQ FBS conference).


Reasoning:

At this point, I would be absolutely stunned if the Big East could still survive as an AQ. The fact that no one has announced intentions to move to the BE tells me that they're all but done.

I think the ACC gives ND till the end of the football season. Since they are saying all sports or nothing, they won't join and the ACC will grab UConn and Rutgers. I don't think they'll go North/South but I don't know who will go into the Atlantic or the Coastal nor will I even try to guess.

The Big 10 will do nothing. Should have gone to 16 last year.

The Big 12 will land Notre Dame but only after they go to 12 (ND will probably only come if some schools close to them join too). I would expect at least Louisville to go and then it's between BYU and Cincy (probably Cincy for the reason I just mentioned).

The SEC will stay at 14 for some time but I think they'll look west again to go to 16 in the future. UT and Oklahoma would be ideal but I'm thinking Oklahoma and Kansas because UT will go indy.

The Pac 12 will probably stay at 12 for a long time. Unless Nevada and UNLV become powerhouses I don't think there is anyone worth grabbing.

C-USA and the MWC will combine for the 6th AQ and I think this might turn out to be a successful alliance. I think they'll get to 28 teams for football but it will be interesting to see if schools like SJSU and La Tech are brought in as football only members or if C-USA will want 14 full members (add LA Tech and USF) and/or the MWC wants 12 full members (add SJSU, USU, NMSU). SJSU could put its Olympic sports in the Big West and NMSU in the Southland if they joined the alliance for football only.

At this point every conference will have a championship game so the Sun Belt will do the same by grabbing Texas St and UTSA

In the near future of realignment, I see...

ACC: Gaining Connecticut and Rutgers
Big Ten: Status quo. May eventually "grab" Missouri, Kansas, Iowa St, Notre Dame or Kansas St
Pac 12: May lure pair of Oklahoma and OK St. Maybe Texas and Texas Tech as well
SEC: Status quo. May "grab" Louisville, West Virginia or ACC schools
Big 12: Could expand with Louisville and BYU. Maybe with Notre Dame in all sports EXCEPT football. Probably will fold if OKL, OK ST, TTU and TEX leaves
Big East: Cease football operation(or at least I hope)

CUSA(Merges with MWC): Gains Cincinnati, USF and LA Tech. Loses UTEP
MWC(Merges with CUSA): Gains UTEP, UT St, SJ St and either North TX, Idaho or NM St
MAC: Status quo
Sunbelt: Gains UTSA, TX St, and either/both Idaho or/and NM St. May lose North TX
WAC: Ceases operations
Army and Navy: Independent

Crazy time!

BIG TEN/PAC 12 ON FOX CONFERENCE:
BIG TEN: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin.
PAC 12: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington St

SEC ON ESPN
EAST: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi St, South Carolina, Clemson, Florida St, Boston College, Connecticut, Pitt
WEST: Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, West Virginia, Memphis, Virginia Tech

BIG EAST ON ESPN:
EAST: Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova, Marquette, DePaul, Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis
WEST: Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Portland, San Francisco, Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount, San Diego, Santa Clara, Denver, Pacific

ACC ON CBS CONFERENCE
EAST: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, Miami
WEST: Texas, TCU, Baylor, Rice, Kansas, UCF, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St

MWC ON CBS: Air Force, Colorado St, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming, Iowa State, Hawai'i, San Jose St, Utah St, Texas St

A10 ON CBS: Rhode Island, Richmond, La Salle, St. Bona, GW, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Fordham, VCU, George Mason, Butler
Drexel, Hofstra, Boston U
IND: Navy, Army

NBC CONFERENCE
EAST: North Carolina St, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Charlotte, Old Dominion, Florida Intl, Georgia St, UAB
WEST: Texas Tech, UT San Antonio, Tulsa, Kansas St, UTEP, Tulane, Southern Miss, San Diego St, Fresno St, Nevada

CONFERENCE USA: North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, New Mexico St, Arkansas St, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tenn St, Troy,
UL Lafayette, UL Monroe, Western Kentucky, So Alabama, Belmont, App St, East Carolina, Marshall, Massachusetts

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