I don't see VCU and GMU leaving - they both want football at some point.
I agree with both of you.
1) Butler is a no-brainer. It helps keep StL happy, keeps the midwest region strong.
2) I actually agree with JP that GMU and VCU could be a positive for all parties: A10 gets more schools near it's headquarters in VA, locks in 4 strong non-BCS type hoops programs for the DC/VA region with Richmond, VCU, GW and GMU.
3) For GMU and VCU, they have been set on a stable CAA and VERY happy there, as jon implied.
4) But...the football landscape is continuing to change. UMass left the CAA and other schools recently dropped football. I always felt like the push for GMU ad VCU to add football (not all that likely now, although VCU had benefit of being able to take over the nearby stadium) was for those schools to secure their spot in the CAA. But with football as a sport changing so much, it's not a stretch at all to think that in the next 5-10 years, JMU and Delaware will be in FBS football. We know Georgia St. is trying to upgrade. And ODU has long term goals of FBS as well (IFFFF the nearby schools also upgraded). So what would that mean for the CAA for GMU and VCU? There might be a benefit for these two schools to consider the A10 for long term stability, given that no matter what we say here, the Big East has proven it has no intentions of splitting. They've added 15 schools since the 2003 ACC defections, a sign they are committed to this hybrid. So it's unlikely any A10 schools would leave other than UMass and Charlotte. Both help the A10 image but aren't annual tourney bid contenders like Xavier, Dayton, Richmond and even StL.
I dont' see it happening (VCU/GMU to A10). But I think both schools should consider it. And I think the A10 might gain from it as well. But I dont' see it happening unless someone leaves the CAA...which is unlikely.