Here is one possibility:
The A10 takes GMU, VCU, and Butler
Charlotte choses the Sunbelt instead of the UMass Model for FBS football
The A10 picks up ODU to take Charlotte's spot who is willing to do the Umass model for FBS football
JMU and Ga St. join Charlotte in the Sunbelt as all 3 look to upgrade to FBS
The leaves the CAA with
William and Mary
Hopefully at that point William and Mary and UNCW would be the Socon #13 and #14, but William and Mary might decide to do Patriot League if abandoned by all the other Virginia schools. If that happens, I really hope the SoCon would take UNCW and Coastal as #13 and #14.
Irregardless, if GMU and VCU leave, the CAA isl likely to become an amped up version of the American East
Yeah, it hasn't been discussed very much but I too have been thinking for awhile that the CAA stands to lose a lot. It got even worse when the A-10 started going after GMU and VCU. It's hard to tell who might be looking to upgrade in the near future. They've got about 6 potential future FBS candidates for the MAC and/or Sun Belt. And since Benson has said he plans to get the Sun Belt to 12 there is going to be room there (especially after they lose some schools). He could come calling for JMU and Georgia State. Would Maine and New Hampshire leave for the Northeast Conference? Delaware to the MAC to avoid the NEC? ODU could end up in the A-10 one day as well.
Now, all of that probably won't happen at one time, but I think you're right, the CAA isn't going to be a superior conference anymore. Probably a one bid league most years.
Seriously, right on. And the WAC is at a point where if they lose 2 schools, they'll gladly accept a WAC-East division of FCS upgrades. Hell, could slot UMass, JMU, ODU, Delaware, Charlotte, GA St, App St and others into a WAC-East. Uggggly.