Fresno St. Alum wrote:
Look at the BYU drop off. 3rd in the WCC gave them a 14 seed, 3rd in the MWC got a 6 seed. Plus we are assuming they'll be able to recruit the same. I'm thinking that will fall off some.
Lets say they move up 10 spots to 15 w/ those 2 adds. That puts them at Ivy,CAA, status. they pull 8-13 type seeding.
UCSB 126(next best)
UNM 27(next best)
It's not quite that simple, though...
BYU didn't get a 14 because that's all the WCC can earn. They got a 14 because of bracket/Sunday rules.
They couldn't be placed in the Midwest or South because they don't play on Sundays. Their only available seed slots were:
11-12-13-14 in the West or East.
The First Four games are in Dayton, Ohio. Due to the quick turnaround, they want to keep the winners as close to Dayton as possible so travel isn't crazy.
The 12 and 13 seed in the West were in Portland, Oregon.
The 11, 12 and 13 seeds in the East were in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
That leaves: 11 or 14 seed in the West (Louisville), or 14 seed East (Louisville)
Giving them the 11 when they're #48 on the S-Curve and Iona is #50 bumps down better teams to worse seeds (like #41 Colorado State). So they said "you're the last team in, you get hosed."
#48 Overall on the S-Curve means they EARNED a 12 seed, not a 14. And that's not all because of the WCC being worse than the MWC.
UNLV finished third in the MWC. They also beat UNC, Cal, Nevada and Illinois in non-conference.
UNLV was 5-6 vs the Top 50 of the RPI.
BYU was 1-6 vs the Top 50. OOC, they beat Oregon, Nevada, Weber St and Buffalo for Top 100 wins.
As far as conference RPI stuff… I actually ran numbers on 2011-12 with future changes (OOC Win Pct is basically the same as Conference RPI, because a conference will go .500 against itself)
here's 2011-12 Men's Basketball non-conference win percentages if the changes were made for this past season
(OOC games vs future conference opponents dropped).
Rk. Conf (Rank Change) Win Pct Change
1. B10 (NC)
2. SEC (+3) +.0172
3. B12 (-1) -.0406
4. ACC (+2) +.0308
5. BGE (-2) -.0469
6. MCS (**) ****** (NOTE A)
7. A10 (NC) -.0144 (NOTE B)
8. MVC (NC)
9. P12 (+1)
10.WCC (+1) -.0268 (NOTE C)
11.WAC (+1) -.0224
14.HOR (+2) -.0024 (NOTE B)
17.SUM (-3) -.0310
19.BWC (+4) +.0826 (NOTE C)
20.OVC (NC) +.0147
21.SNB (NC) -.0364
22.ASN (+1) -.0238
24.IND (+1) -.0071
26.SLN (NC) -.0123
30.GWC (+1) -.0030
NOTE A: MWC/CUSA merger
NOTE B: Assuming Butler replaces Temple
NOTE C: Assuming Pacific joins WCC (I did this before the UOP announcement).
And of course, CONFERENCES do not earn bids, TEAMS DO. Conference OOC win pct is a massive factor in RPI (by far the biggest), but that doesn't mean "Oh, you can never earn a XX seed because of your conference
." The RPI is math. It can be manipulated through scheduling policies (and IS manipulated through scheduling policies).
If you get an entire conference working together for a common goal, with a good understanding of how RPI works, they can do pretty amazing things (I've actually been part of a group doing it).
The problem is they play 18 games vs the BW. Just like we knew there was no way Murray St. was going to get a 1 or 2 seed. Gone are the days where BW had Tark's Pro UNLV team where NMSU, UCSB and USU were also solid schools.