This could be a big deal OR NOT.

Right now, I like the comment that it's potentially just another Capitol One Bowl.

The focus of the TV viewership will be on the 4-team playoff. This game + Rose Bowl will be next tier down....

IF you see top ACC FB schools jump to other conferences (which could happen) THEN you've got a "Big 4".

A couple of fan blog sites of BC & VPI (unofficial) per the topic of expansion:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/section/a ... -expansion

(Note: One writer, though, presents/implies some mistaken information contrary to historical facts. The truth is that So. Carolina was one of the Charter ACC members, and UVA was invited once the initial group formed.
One commentator did point out the error.)

http://www.virginiatechfan.com/2012/05/ ... #more-7477

The Clemson "in principle" tweet.

http://dev.chuckoliver.net/2012/05/fsu- ... nevitable/

FSU to the Big 12 – “It is Inevitable”

_________________
Fan of the Big 12 Conference, the Mountain West Conference and...

So, according to that article, there will be a gradual assimilation of the ACC by the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC which could very well leave Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest on the outside looking in.

If that does happen, I think it will be a gradual annexation of up to 10 of the ACC schools which hypothetically would be:
Florida State, Clemson in the first wave to the Big 12 if not also Georgia Tech and Miami (assumption)
Then Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC, also assuming that North Carolina declines an invite.
Finally, the Big Ten inviting Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, and Duke.

Expansion could happen in 4 waves with the first being FSU and Clemson, second Georgia Tech and Miami, 3rd VT and NCSU, and the fourth wave being the Big Ten additions.

It could be that Notre Dame is still allowed to maintain relevance by staying independent because they ARE Notre Dame and their ties to the Big Ten and Pac-12 making them. I have a hard time seeing the Big 12 and SEC forcing them out of a four team playoff if they are ranked accordingly, regardless if the qualifications to participate in a four team playoff is that you have to be a conference champion. Just like Notre Dame had special rules written into the BCS for them, they could easily have rules written into the Final Four for them.

Back to the main point, though. If those 10 teams are swallowed up in the next wave of realignment it will probably be gradual so that the ACC can still survive as a conference - much like the Big East was allowed. In doing so, though, it would mean that Boston College and UConn would have to share residence in the same conference (something neither school seems to want but, in these times, in order maintain some form of relevance they would be forced to).

The ACC would drop from being one of the most prestigious academic conferences to just another run-of-the-mill conference based on the East coast. Starting with a base of BC, Pitt, Cuse, and WF they could invite UConn and Rutgers once the first two teams leave. Louisville and Cincinnati during the second wave; Temple and South Florida on the 3rd, and finally, the fourth and final wave it could be Central Florida and Memphis.

Now if the Big 12 chooses to jump to 16 then I think they would target Louisville and Cincinnati over any combination of Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Boston College. If that happens then two more teams would be needed to join the ACC. Those two teams could be any combination of UMass (doubtful because of Boston College), East Carolina, Southern Miss, Tulane, S.M.U., and Houston.

For arguments sake let's say East Carolina and Southern Miss are invited.

The new Big East-looking ACC would be:
North
Boston College
Rutgers
UConn
Temple
Pitt
Syracuse
South
South Florida
Central Florida
East Carolina
Southern Miss
Memphis
Wake Forest

It's a strong basketball conference and would likely be the top mid-major conference depending on what happens out West. It could be a glimpse of the future of the ACC, allthough there are a lot of assumption placed in this scenario

Suppose the ACC gets devoured.

If the move is for PAC, Big XII, B1G and SEC to go to 16, you have 16 open slots....

PAC - 4
Big XII - 6
B1G - 4
SEC -2

The ACC will have 14, other desirable schools include: Boise St., BYU, Notre Dame, Louisville, Rutgers, UConn.

So that's 20 schools in my mind, competing for 16 slots.

Which 4 would be left out ?

If I was Wake Forest, I'd be worried about that scenario.
But the bigger question to answereing this puzzle, would be what 4 teams does the PAC take to get to 16 ?
Would they expand at all ?
Would they stay within their footprint and first add Boise and BYU ?
Would 4 Big XII schools slide over ? How could they with the "granting of rights" ?

But we may be getting ahead of ourselves or under-estimating the ACC's play...
They could also adopt the "granting of rights" poison pill.
If they added Notre Dame tomorrow, how does that change the dynamic ?

Notre Dame has GOT to be having conversations with ACC, B1G, and Big XII.
What they decide can have a significant effect on how this all plays out.
And if their preferred landing spot is the ACC (for example), it might behove them to move in the near future,
rather than sit on their hands and have this play out in a way that is not to their liking.

tute79, a very good post.
I had been thinking about the "what ifs'" of 4 - 16 member super-conferences and whose potentially available for inclusion who are not already part of the big 4.
I believe the first part, "4 top conferences", has gotten well on the way ahead of what schools would likely round out the #s' for 16 each.

As you reflected upon, I have been saying the PAC12 may be faced with the most difficult choices if enough pressure is made to go to 16 when others may do. They don't want BYU and BSU for multiple reasons. Choices of Hawaii, a Nevada school, Colorado State, UNM, Wyoming, etc. don't inspire passion. Would the B12 and PAC12 start to do some bargaining? The PAC12 could ultimately settle on schools such as Kansas, KSU, and Iowa State. They make a geographic connection (sorta) with Colorado and bridge directly to B1G country (as the B12/SEC do). This leaves the B12, left with Oklahoma and Texas schools plus WVU, to combine with a contingent of current ACC schools (FSU, Miami, etc.) plus Louisville (or even Cincy) if numerically needed perhaps. It structures the B12 to be less of a huge east-west divide, and eliminates a northern plains tier for the B12. The ACC could then, perhaps, pick from what's left of the BE (UCONN, Temple, and so forth) or as you noted, a C-USA type if needed.

But there's a big problem. Where does the SEC find 2? The B12 would need 8 after any kind of a deal with the PAC12. And then there is the B1G. Even if they got ND, they would still need 3 others...and not just any 'ole schools.
While this looks like dream stuff, the super-conference thrust/concept appears to be having some steam.
Conference's can't just kick out members without just cause to force them elsewhere in a conspiracy design. So, if the 16-member big 4 shall be for real, we may expect it to be incremental and over a numbers of years.

We may all be confused---including conferences and schools---that are being forced to contemplate.

We would have to think a school such as Notre Dame is pondering highly whether to relinquish their independent card for several other options, each having not fully clear pros and cons.

Nobody, it appears, is out to deliberately damage the ACC (except maybe some bitter BE sources with little power in all this). It's just that they (ACC) have been cast, with the SEC/B12 bowl alliance, as #5 in an executed arrangement where the power sources are headed toward having just room for 4 for the top, apparently. It's a suprise in that just weeks earlier, the B12 retained high anger over the Texas A&M & Mizzou departures to the SEC (no more KU-Mizzou games, no more UT & T A&M games, earlier Baylor lawsuit threats, etc.). And, the SEC and ACC had arranged a couple of early season double-headers in Atlanta.

So, the SEC/B12 pac came all down to money, not love...well, say, love of money. While check-mating the B1G/PAC12/Rose Bowl and/or showing them who could really be boss, the ACC, per revenue and perhaps the potential to lose schools, could be the real, direct casualty in all this.

SEC -

I'm of the opinioin that the 4 team playoff will garner major TV viewership, and the Rose Bowl and Champions Bowl will be viewed as "Consolation Bowls".
As such, thetraditional bowls may lose popularity, and it will eventually occur to the TV execs to suggest supplanitng them wiht "meaningful games"
(i.e. expanding the playoffs from 4 to 8 to ....).

The BETTER non-BCS Bowls pay out something like $3 mill per team (vs. $20 or so million per competitor in a BCS game).

Therefore, I think the ACC has less to be concerned with on the non-playoff bowl front,
and more to be concerned with retaining their better teams and competitiveness (so as to earn one of those 4 playoff slots consistently).

You are right that one omni-potent czar could quickly set up a 64-team league with nice geographical divisions.
Expecting college presidents and commissioners to achieve similar results (while mired in politics) is akin to watching someone try to herd cats.
(sort of painful to watch and futile).
Soon we will envision a number of moves that might be for the good of all concerned stymied by exit fees.... (Boise State ? Others ? )

That's where I think the who;e "Super conference" thing goes wrong. Why does it HAVE to be four of 16?

Look at the historical progression of the "Power Six"
1983: ACC 7, B12 8, B10 10, P10 10, SEC 10, SWC 9, BE NA
1993: 9, 8, 11, 10, 12, 9, 8
2003: 9, 12, 11, 10, 12, 8 (SWC gone)
2013: 14, 10*, 12, 12, 14, 12

What makes you think it's going to be 16-16-16-16 and not 12-16-18-16 ?

The Southeast will have more available teams to add. Always have.

_________________
1897-1898 | 1900-06 | 1926-27 | 1929-30 | 1939 | 1942

GREAT point. It could very well end up as a 12-16-18-16 league with the SEC being the ones to have the 18. That could be done by getting one of the leftover teams (Wake Forest, for example).

The Pac-12 doesn't have anyone desirable to expand with now that there is more solidarity in the Big12 than there has been the past two years. I don't see Larry Scott expanding just for the sake of expansion. He's savvier, craftier, and smarter than that. BYU, Boise, New Mexico, UNLV, etc. all have significant issues which is, in part, is why I think it would be in their best interest to band together once the landscape settles.

The Big12 wants to get into the Southeast markets which is why FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami, to an extent, are coveted. Those four plus Cincinnati and Louisville connect the conference geographically while adding the markets, athletic programs, and academics (which is the last considered in expansion) to the conference.

The Big Ten also wants to expand into the Eastern markets but Notre Dame is the one they want the most. It will be interesting to see what they do because their conference allegiance alters the fate of the ACC and hinders Big12 and Big Ten expansion. The B1G want the markets but also the academics which is why I see UNC, Duke, UVA, Maryland, Boston College, and Notre Dame being their top targets. Rutgers and UConn are on the list but I think would be further down the pecking order.

The SEC wants the North Carolina first and foremost and then the Virginia market or an additional Florida market. Virginia Tech, UNC, NCSU, and I think still FSU are in the mix for further SEC expansion.

Up to 4 teams will be left out in the New World Order. The only question is which ones?

From what they've been saying on ESPN radio here in Dallas the Champions Bowl (probably will be called the Cotton Bowl) and Rose Bowl will both be owned and operated by the 4 major conferences and (if they Big10 gets its way) will act as a defacto playoff each year and will send the champs from the Big 4 conference into these two games that will culminate in a +1. The ACC, Big East, and Midmajors like MWC/CUSA will get screwed and so will independents like ND who will be forced to finally join a conference.

It sounds like the Big Ten and PAC12 are trying to buy out the Rose Bowl name from the non-profit and the SEC/Big12 are trying to do the same with the Cotton Bowl. The free ride taking these universities to the cleaners in order to have a multimillion dollar payroll and slush fund accounts for crap like the Fiesta Bowl recently pulled is over. The conference will hold their employees in charge of the bowls accountable just like they do their commissioners (whether you think that's good or bad is irrelevant, because no matter what its an improvement over the current system).

It also sounds like the Fiesta and Sugar may be next in line to be run by the big conferences pairing the PAC12/Big12 (like the Holiday/Alamo Bowls are) and the Big Ten/SEC (like the NYD FL Bowls are).

And then I wouldn't be shocked to see other bowls like the Peach or Orange pair up the Big 12/Big Ten and PAC12/SEC which fill all 6 BCS bowls with big 4 teams. This means no access for ND/BYU, the ACC, Big East, and Midmajors like MWC/CUSA. But if that were true it would have some anti-trust problems unless these conference decided to split away from the rest of college football and start their own system that will most probably also include a stipend for players.

This also means that the bowls will all get attractive matchups instead of Utah/Pitt, Lville/WF, Boise St/OU, UGA/Hawaii, VA Tech/Cincy, Utah/Alabama, FL/Cincy, Iowa/GA Tech, Boise/TCU, UConn/OU, WVU/Clemson (and yes I know that some of these could still occur but the teams would be better vetted after playing a Big 4 conference schedule).

_________________
Fan of the Big 12 Conference, the Mountain West Conference and...

Yeah, I can't see a "big 4" doing a freeze-out of others without inviting anti-trust suits and the petitioning for congressional involvement. The "4", it would appear, would have to exit established umbrella organization(s), the NCAA, which could lead to not scheduling ANY regular season and post-season games with schools not part of the 4 conferences. I don't think they will go that far. Many decision-makers and fans on both sides of such a divide would object.
Some of these conferences that would be probable victims of the attempted shut-out, are in regions and states not void of political power and influence.

Certainly the Rose Bowl & Cotton-like bowl (or whatever new name) will yield lucrative results and placement power for the post-season bowl/playoff picture, and it indeed may be an added and profound advantage over others that are not a part of the dual-bowl structure; but it will not be accepted in being totally exclusionary for post-season playoff access. That may not be the real, immdediate intent, anyway.

I agree. I think you'd more likely see another push for 6 teams to be involved in 3 games: Rose Bowl = P12 vs B10, Champions (to be Cotton) would be SEC vs Big 12, and the 3rd could be some sort fo rotation between Orange, Sugar, Fiesta. That game could be 2 at-large or ACC vs At-large. The +1 game would just be a choice of 2 of the 3 winners.

Real simple:
- most years, the title game will be Pac12/Big Ten vs SEC/Big 12...as most years it's a combo of those 4 conferences.
- In years when, say, a schools like #18 ranked Utah upsets in the Pac-12 championship game and makes it to the Rose and beats a #3 Ohio St., well, if you have a #5 Virginia Tech in the Orange bowl, beating a top at large (say, a #3 ranked LSU...while #1 Alabama is in the Champions bowl)...well, those years, maybe you get Virginia Tech in the +1 game instead of #17 Utah.

_________________


@ncaasports csi.com/facebook


Like the new CSI Userbar? Feel free to use it here and any other forums.
You can save and host it yourself or link from here.

Clemson's AD puts down the Big XII rumor again.

In this case, I think they have to say they'll do what's in their best interest if it keeps the ACC officials in the proper mindset at the bargaining table, but this was a total anti-FSU approach. I believe they have no intention of leaving.

I actually believe the Clemson Athletic Director on the Big 12 rumor of taking Clemson because Clemson is most likely not in the mix for Big 12 expansion plans.

The most likely scenario is for the Big 12 to expand with 12+ by taking Florida State and Louisville for 12 and Notre Dame for all sports with the exception of football.

The Big 12 is not going to raid a school that is not contacting the conference. Louisville and Florida State are both on record as wanting to explore joining the Big 12. The President of Florida State has a list of pros and cons for joining the Big 12.

This would go a long way in preventing legal issues against the Big 12 by either the Big East or ACC.

East

Florida State
Louisville
WVU
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State

West

Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor

Notre Dame for all Big 12 sports and partial football. The old Big East used 13 teams for basketball when WVU, Rutgers, and Notre Dame joined for basketball.