It's definitely going to be a very interesting scenario that plays out. Let's not forget, Texas and Co to the Pac 12 was all but finalized according to very credible sources. But it may prove once and for all what alignment is really about. Is it geography, history, academics, or is it almost completely about money?

I'm following the Big XII's twitter feed. A lot of cliches, but no real solutions. $19m per school...still no consensus on finalizing the contract or granting TV rights to the conference.

Still a WiP.

What are the per school projections if FSU and Clemson came? 23 mill, 25? If it's mostly about money 23/25>17. The left out fact trumps those. If it sounds more and more like the ACC won't be strong enough or have a strong enough schedule to ever make it to the 4 teamer then that should push FSU into a move. I can't see the BE ever making the playoffs. They'll have someone w/ a better SOS jump BSU on the last week if they have to. Gotta think if there's anything close where a B12 and ACC school are 11-1. SOS would probably put the B12 school in over the weaker conf schedule of the ACC.

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Good point about the SOS factor, FSA.

The ACC had 2 BCS entries last season; not that it was pretty with Clemson's Orange Bowl meldown. An undefeated or one loss ACC team could make the final 4. The one loss would depend on when it happened, how close, to whom, and among the big conferences, how many others are vying undefeated or have one loss & under what circumstances.

A late season loss hurts. We recall Oklahoma State's one overtime loss in the later part of the season on the road at Iowa State. The end result was they fell a few points behind Alabama who had an overtime loss to LSU, who was in the top two at the time.

For a BE team to make it, it would almost have to be undefeated. And even then, that would be no guarantee.

The stakes, (revenue, exposure, and banner carrying) for those to make a top-4 playoff would be immense. If it gets to look like hanky-panky in selection, the controversies of the old BCS shall be mild by comparison. They better try to do it right in a system without perfection.

I can't see a 12-0 Cincinnati getting in over a 11-1 Oklahoma St. Florida destroying an undefeated Cincy team in the Suger Bowl a few years ago further points to exclusion. So does the SEC vs SEC title game. Clemson wins the ACC and get 70 hung on them in the Orange Bowl by what is now a B12 school.

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I don't believe they will stay at ten, but if they do, I have to wonder if Bowlsby was really the guy they needed, and whether anyone could take him serious when saying something like this.

The PAC didn't usually get to utilize the BCS era with ten teams. Parity and the round-robin format saw to that. And it will see to it again in a conference as sometimes thick as the B12. The B1G exploited the BCS with eleven, AND they could still do it with eight conference games, with at least one major non-conference game on the schedule.

With ten, they can forget "SOS." These schools are going to fill up the non-conference with soft filler in order to become bowl-eligible for their own visibility's sake. How's that going to go over with a major network when you don't have multiple power markets?

The Big 12 stating that they want to stay at 10 unless Notre Dame calls.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... on-for-now

To me, not expanding is short sighted. It's hard for me to believe it's true. By not taking FSU and Clemson, it leaves the Big XII vulnerable.

Yes, the Big XII is number 4 now but by not taking out the ACC now, leaves the door open for the ACC to possibly over take them in the future. What happens if let's say that FSU can regain it's prominence and their recruit classes under Jimbo have been top notch. Clemson becomes a regular in the top 20 and Virginia Tech stays a top 10 team.

What about if Baylor returns to what it was before RG3, Oklahoma State is the same team without Blackmon and Weeden. What if Texas A&M status as an SEC team changes recruiting in Texas or the SEC starts winning the "Champion Bowl' like the win national championships.

Finally, what if Notre Dame chooses the ACC over the Big 12. Yes, the Big 12 can offer Notre Dame football independence and their 3rd tier rights but look at what the ACC could offer if they wanted.

Hey Notre Dame, the ACC here. What if you join us as our #15, you choose #16 from UConn, Rutgers, and Louisville, pick any 3 teams for your pod, we will play a 7 game conference schedule so you can keep your rival games, 3 in your pod, 1 non pod rival, and 1 opponent from the other 3 pods. Oh yeah, ESPN said you could your home games on NBC.

Yes this is way out there, but if you are desperate to remain relevant, who knows what you offer. Point is, the Big 12 could have eliminated the ACC.

The future may be fluid; however, for now, this FSU stuff has largley sliden off the real sports news. For Clemson, it was never a serious starter.
Officials do "shop talk" across the spectrum all the time. "No communication" is a polite way of saying nothing came of it. I seriously question the B12 would pass on FSU if they really wanted to go anytime soon. They would be a better overall land than either WVU or TCU.
Certainly they would be eager for Notre Dame. I expect they have been phoning (and other means of conversing) ND frequently; not just "if they call...".

To Notre Dame, do they even have third-tiers in football? Their home games are national, as are some of the big rivalry games ('SC, Michigan, Navy, and Army). Even the lesser rivalries like Purdue, Michigan State, Pitt, Stanford, and BC...strong regional games that I can't say I never saw unavailable where I've lived (northeast).

Assuming they went to the B12 and kept their NBC deal until it would end, I guess third-tiers would matter. I doubt New York or Philly are dying to see the Irish in Manhattan, Lubbock, or Ames. Depending what other networks get into the game, is it possible Notre Dame could be fighting for visibility in Chicago?

For Florida State, the occasional games they pick up with 'Cuse and Pitt are seldom, if ever, national, but for regional fare, they will bring in some eyes. It's kind of the same as what Notre Dame presently enjoys. When does FSU get to see sets in NYC, Philly, and Boston with the B12? Certainly not a lock with West Virginia (Pitt games aren't always on in Philly)...maybe UT and OU assuming nothing else in on the slate?

Seanbo,
My first reaction to the Big 12 decision to remain at 10 was similar to yours. When you look more closely at this decision there are many reason to understand why the Big 12 is in no hurry to expand.

First up bigger is not always better or more importantly ensures stability. Ironically the Big 12 is more stable with 10 members compared to when the conference contained 12 members. GOR of course had something to do with that as well.

To your point, if the Big 12 is perceived to be able to snatch up Florida State and Clemson, then soon to be 14 member ACC is another classic example of bigger is not always better compared to a current 10 member Big 12.

You could make the same argument if Florida State and Clemson joined the Big 12, the ACC could on the other hand have a Virginia Tech type school jump to top of the ladder and have regular undefeated seasons and the ACC could be in position to get regular BCS final four bids with or without FSU and Clemson.

If we learned anything from pouching, the ACC is classic example of raiding the Big East just to have a couple leftover Big East teams rise up to BCS prominence and overshadow your accomplishment. The Big East in BCS outperformed the ACC after the raid.

College football is not organized well enough to have a separation of the big boys or big four because that would require a good leader in charge or an NFL type commissioner. With that said, I do not think the Big 12 or SEC has interest in destroying another conference just to gain ground. This may have been the case of the first ACC raid on the Big East.

The Big 12 does not have to destroy the ACC to keep well ahead of the ACC in performance. Ditto the SEC.

As long as the Big 12 has flagship schools such as Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 will remain among the top football leagues regardless If that league has 8, 10, 12, or 50 schools.

You could then argue that money may eventually make a difference and the ACC could somehow eventually make more money over the Big 12.

As long as football is driving the bus, the much more football orientated Big 12 is not going to fall behind the ACC. The ACC would have to drop a lot of small private schools and pick up some very strong football schools just to be the same comparison as the Big 12. The ACC can be just as strong at the top with Florida State in the mix, it’s the top to bottom ration of football performing schools that takes a lot of the worries out of the ACC becoming a super football power. At least to the point you would have to kill your competition to prevent this from occurring. This top to bottom ration is what makes bigger not better because with 14 schools there is a lot more room for bottom dwellers to pull down SOS.

If the ACC has learned anything from the Big East, Notre Dame is no savior to a football league. If Notre Dame joined the ACC tomorrow, the conference would most likely make the same revenue. I am basing this on the fact if the Big 12 expands, the revenue would be the same per school of estimated 20 million. Notre Dame has to be one of those schools factored into this scenario if the Big 12 expands back to 12 schools the conference contact would compensate to allow to keep each school at 20 million and would not change revenue shares regardless of which schools were included.

There is no argument here that 10 school conference are a better alignment with round robin football and basketball. All of the 12 and 14 member conferences are having unwieldy issues with schedules and retaining rivalries.

Just wait until the ACC which use to be the premier basketball league in the country with 9 schools and round robin basketball begins to plays regular season with 14 teams schools and includes all schools in the conference tournament. Is it ok to say gag me or yuk or what every four word you want to choose.

Summary: bigger is not necessarily better and if you got premier football schools in your league and your league is stable which means keeping up with Jones (“U of Texas comments the Big 12 is the Jones”), the only worry is how you want your conference to be aligned with no concerns what the ACC eventually ends up in alignment. Or for that matter any of the other BCS leagues.
For the next 13 or 20 years with Texas having 3rs tier rights there is no other league that can close to providing Texas the benefits of leaving. We are talking about a 35 to 40 million dollar share and the Big Ten is not anywhere in this neighborhood which is what it would take to get any interest from Texas. Ditto Pac 12. With Texas in the league the Big 12 will always be considered a top league.

So if Notre Dame is not available why expand beyond 10 schools just for the sake of doing it when 10 schools are a perfect alignment number.

Yeah, but it's not like the ship is gonna sail on them.

They can play with 10. Divide the TV revenue 10 ways, put a year or two on their TV deal, FSU & Clemson can look into TV network stuff. AND THEN they can add FSU & Clemson....

-- When both are ready to get their networks going.
-- When they can add value to a pre-existing contract and renegotiate.
-- Receive additional revenue from a CCG.

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Good points.

Figure for money though, it would take an extra $40 million per year to break even with FSU and Clemson. To get to that $25 mil per figure, it means an extra $60 million to the contract.

When you look at the ACC of late, with FSU and Miami being poor, Clemson and VA Tech being average programs that happened to win the conference, it does seem like a lock that if you have 1 loss schools from the other 4 BCS conferences and an ACC school at 1 loss, that the ACC would be left out. BUT, if the ACC had 2 schools at the levels they used to have (think VA Tech vs FSU in national title game...or Miami vs Ohio St. level representative)...meaning 2 top 10 programs and 4 total in top 15-20, well, then the ACC would leapfrog most of the others in strength...since their 1 loss team would be likely in the top 2 position.

It's not a stretch, just very unlikely to have 4 strong programs given the Bowden late years effect on FSU, Miami's issues.

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As I stated in the previous post on this thread. The Big 12 will continue to be a strong league well into the future with Texas as an anchor school.

This is only an estimate, however, with estimated 20 million per Big 12 school share and 15 to 20 million tier 3 rights, any conference would have to provide Texas a 35 to 40 million dollar share if Texas were actually available. Big Ten and Pac 12 are in the 24 million dollar range and would have to grow the cable network extensive in 13 years just to match Texas potential Big 12 revenue. The Big 12 will likewise be worth more in 13 years as well.

With the soon to be sighing of rights from current 6 year to 13 years, there is no immediate worries of a collapsed of the Big 12 for well over a decade.

It just not something to worry about and that is why the Big 12 can be coy and remain with 10 schools which is a perfect number.

Oh of course unless Notre Dame wants to join the party.

I too found him an interesting hire. In the past, we've seen non BCS conference commishes being "training", like Slive from CUSA to SEC. I thought Thompson might have been on the radar, due to the success he had when the MWC was more stable. But perhaps his inability to keep the conference together (not his fault since more attractive options opened up like Big 12, Pac-12, etc) took him off the list. Benson had a tougher time, dropping the ball a bit with the whole Nevada/Fresnso St. issue in assuming all WAC schools would remain united.

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If Pitt and Cuse brought ACC from 13 to 17 a year. FSU and Clemson should raise the B12 from 20 to 22 at least. FSU is a national brand even though they've been meh lately. Nebraska's meh didn't stop them from getting into the B1G. Nor did A&Ms meh stop them from the SEC. Its up FSU, do they want to break their ties to the schools they've played w/ for 20 years for money and a bigger seat at the table. Every school seems to be wrapped up in right now, not well if VT and Miami can be top 10 every year we should be good. Panic and hasty moves rule the day. We could even see where FSU says we're staying, then during 2012 get pissed off at the ACC or something and leave in 2013, like A&M. We thought things were fine, then boom A&M is gone.

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