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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:31 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
I'm going to start some conjecture here as I think that Delany's East Coast television grab is bound to start a chain reaction.

The ACC could very well respond to the loss of Maryland by not only taking UConn but shoring up the legacy of Big East basketball by taking the basketball programs Georgetown (reclaiming DC), Villanova, and St John's to create a 14 team fb conference and 18 team bb conference. This would hopefully keep Florida St and Clemson content and not making overtures to the Big 12.

This leaves the Big East completely decimated to the point that the only way for the remaining programs to survive is declare the Big East dissolved (after collecting checks from the departing members and dividing them up, of course). Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and possibly Temple as well could regroup in a new conference with the cream of the Atlantic 10. Meanwhile whoever is left among the football schools could found a new league with the best of C-USA, keeping whatever football affiliates they can hold onto.

Regardless of how this plays out, Mike Aresco's job just got a lot harder.


Muskie, agree with many of your fine observations and potential scenarios; not this one though. As I commented in the ACC thread, I think that if the ACC did indeed turn more hybrid, taking on some of the BE bb contingent, it would spur, rather than solidify, schools such as FSU & Clemson to head for the B12. I don't believe the ACC would over-reach. Maryland leaving has a lot to do with finances, and even with the ACC's all-sports additions from the BE, divisional set-ups, new scheduling, sort of diluted the old and tight Duke/UNC/MD/plus home-to-home and bb tournament formats. The ACC has changed, and has given MD an outlet for something deemed better. More intense change shall only facilitate unease, particularly with a few of the ACC's southern schools. Pitt, 'Cuse, Miami, and BC had decided to leave the hybrid BE, not to bring most of it with them.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 3:03 pm 
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Thanks for the reply sec03.

My thoughts behind the ACC hybrid were mainly this: added basketball revenue and prestige could potentially placate Florida St and Clemson and would be something the Big 12 could never offer them. There probably will be zero change in football revenue for the ACC as a result of swapping UConn for departing Maryland. The block of schools potentially pulling for the hybrid could be ND, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, BC, UNC, and Duke and any schools who wanted to closely ally themselves with Duke/UNC. I'm speculating that if Florida St was willing to accept a hybrid in order to get Notre Dame they might be willing to approve of letting in some of Notre Dame's buddies. Maybe we don't see the full scale expansion I called for but I could see Georgetown sneaking in in order to preserve the DC presence--the other two, St John's and Villanova wouldn't be necessary.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 3:33 pm 
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Article out of Jersey(previously posted in another thread)reporting that Rutgers plans to accept Big Ten invite today and hold Presser tomorrow for the announcement at http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index ... nce_f.html


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 3:33 pm 
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CBSSports blog article(previously posted in another thread)reporting that the ACC is already in talks with four current Big East schools looking for a replacement for Maryland at http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... eplacement


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:23 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
This leaves the Big East completely decimated to the point that the only way for the remaining programs to survive is declare the Big East dissolved (after collecting checks from the departing members and dividing them up, of course). Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and possibly Temple as well could regroup in a new conference with the cream of the Atlantic 10. Meanwhile whoever is left among the football schools could found a new league with the best of C-USA, keeping whatever football affiliates they can hold onto.

Regardless of how this plays out, Mike Aresco's job just got a lot harder.


The Big East would be "decimated" with 12 basketball schools remaining:
Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Houston, UCF, SMU, Memphis, Temple
DePaul, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall.
Boise St, San Diego St., Navy (football-only)

The middle doesn't dissolve, the bottom does. The Big East would simply invite members to replenish their numbers and the last conference on the food chain would be decimated/dissolved.

The big question is HOW the BE would replenish. Would they invite any non-football schools, or just football schools?
You'd have to think UMass, Charlotte for all sports and either Tulsa (All-Sports) or UNLV (FB Only) would make sense for the football side to get to 14.

I wouldn't anticipate SHU, PC, Marq, and DePaul simply saying "That's it, we're out of here." But I could see the BE encouraging them to seek elsewhere and pushing through rules and financial arrangements that make it worth their while to leave. You know the A-10 would immediately reach out to them if Georgetown, Villanova and St. John's go to the ACC.

If those four were willing to join the A-10 (which would then have 17 teams if UMass were leaving); they'd add one (Stony Brook or Hofstra to solidify New York) for an 18-team league.

But what if they took the initiative to form a new league with the top of the A-10 and leave the bottom schools behind?
East: Providence, Seton Hall, St. Joseph's, VCU, George Mason, Hofstra
West: Saint Louis, Marquette, DePaul, Butler, Xavier, Dayton

The A-10 would respond by raiding from the CAA/MAAC/Horizon/AmEast. Drexel and Stony Brook would be on the top of the list, with 3-5 others from a list of Quinnipiac, Detroit, Cleveland St, Long Island, Siena, Iona, etc.

The Big East wouldn't go away.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 5:12 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
Thanks for the reply sec03.

My thoughts behind the ACC hybrid were mainly this: added basketball revenue and prestige could potentially placate Florida St and Clemson and would be something the Big 12 could never offer them. There probably will be zero change in football revenue for the ACC as a result of swapping UConn for departing Maryland. The block of schools potentially pulling for the hybrid could be ND, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, BC, UNC, and Duke and any schools who wanted to closely ally themselves with Duke/UNC. I'm speculating that if Florida St was willing to accept a hybrid in order to get Notre Dame they might be willing to approve of letting in some of Notre Dame's buddies. Maybe we don't see the full scale expansion I called for but I could see Georgetown sneaking in in order to preserve the DC presence--the other two, St John's and Villanova wouldn't be necessary.

Since my reporting of the rumor de jure on the ACC board yesterday a lot has been discussed and let me just point out a few things about a possible expansion of the ACC hybrid.

First and foremost...its already a hybrid, Notre Dame is the exception to the rule and while everyone keeps saying the ACC will never add another non-fb member the ACC is perhaps the most reactionary of all FBS conference. Heck it added Pitt and Syracuse out of nowhere because the Big 12 was getting raided. The Big Ten moving into their backyard in the NYC-DC corridor will cause them to panic, either they'll way overcompensation and go to 16 fb schools by taking UConn, Cincy, and Louisville; or they'll comprise and add just 1 more fb but also secure the markets under attack with St John's and Georgetown. Taking just 1 fb school seems logical but I just have this sense that the ACC will go all out to project as much strength as possible after a very public moment of weakness.

Now if they add any non fb schools Villanova has got to be #1 on that list. If the ACC only take Georgetown (the best of the BE bball schools) then they will be a hybrid even if ND decides to join the conference and we know that when that time comes they'll add a 16th fb school and if Georgetown is on board an 18th bb school as well. Nova has been wanting to upgrade but also is a basketball school first, they'll join the league with Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, UNC, and UConn in a heartbeat and would put off upgrading until the ACC needs them to. Add in the fact that Villanova had already been in talks with the ACC last time around, and you can see why they are the lynch pin of any non-fb expansion.

If ND joins the ACC in fb and Nova upgrades then they only have 2 bball schools that are probably two of the best non-fb schools in the NCAA located in two huge media markets the heart of ACC that would otherwise have no direction connection to. And if ND never joins up the ACC is just a more leaner meaner version of the Big East not some unwieldy hybrid monster as people are imagining it to be.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 5:52 pm 
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Simply put, ask yourself: Is ESPN the kind of organization that would steer the ACC in a direction that makes the most financial sense for ESPN?

Break down the inventory. If the ACC added UConn, Georgetown, Nova and St. John's, what "Big East games" are missing from the ACC TV contract? Games between: Louisville, Cincy, Marquette, Temple and Memphis.

Could ESPN replace those 20 games of basketball inventory with:
-- Duke, UNC, Miami and Florida State vs Georgetown, Nova, St. John's AND
-- Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, VCU, St. Joe's vs Marquette, DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall ?

Would doing that save the price of giving the Big East a TV contract? Absolutely.

Let's be clear: It's not the ACC's decision to add GT, Nova and SJU. It's ESPN's.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:35 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Simply put, ask yourself: Is ESPN the kind of organization that would steer the ACC in a direction that makes the most financial sense for ESPN?

Break down the inventory. If the ACC added UConn, Georgetown, Nova and St. John's, what "Big East games" are missing from the ACC TV contract? Games between: Louisville, Cincy, Marquette, Temple and Memphis.

Could ESPN replace those 20 games of basketball inventory with:
-- Duke, UNC, Miami and Florida State vs Georgetown, Nova, St. John's AND
-- Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, VCU, St. Joe's vs Marquette, DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall ?

Would doing that save the price of giving the Big East a TV contract? Absolutely.

Let's be clear: It's not the ACC's decision to add GT, Nova and SJU. It's ESPN's.

Bullseye...UConn doesn't move the meter any more than Maryland did. Maryland had the better market but UConn has the bball success, both fb teams are pretty blah.

But UConn, Georgetown, Nova, and St John's along with ND, BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, UNC and you have a hands down the best bball conference in the nation that the people in New York, New England, Philly, DC, and NC will want to watch.

Other than Louisville and Maryland (and MD's debatable) I'm not sure there is another Atlantic-ish team you could add to that mix too make it more attractive and that includes Rutgers. I like Louisville because they are more rounded but they don't get the eyes balls and while the football school (and BC) may prefer them over UConn, I just don't see it happening.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:50 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
fighting muskie wrote:
This leaves the Big East completely decimated to the point that the only way for the remaining programs to survive is declare the Big East dissolved (after collecting checks from the departing members and dividing them up, of course). Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and possibly Temple as well could regroup in a new conference with the cream of the Atlantic 10. Meanwhile whoever is left among the football schools could found a new league with the best of C-USA, keeping whatever football affiliates they can hold onto.

Regardless of how this plays out, Mike Aresco's job just got a lot harder.


The Big East would be "decimated" with 12 basketball schools remaining:
Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Houston, UCF, SMU, Memphis, Temple
DePaul, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall.
Boise St, San Diego St., Navy (football-only)

The middle doesn't dissolve, the bottom does. The Big East would simply invite members to replenish their numbers and the last conference on the food chain would be decimated/dissolved.

The big question is HOW the BE would replenish. Would they invite any non-football schools, or just football schools?
You'd have to think UMass, Charlotte for all sports and either Tulsa (All-Sports) or UNLV (FB Only) would make sense for the football side to get to 14.

I wouldn't anticipate SHU, PC, Marq, and DePaul simply saying "That's it, we're out of here." But I could see the BE encouraging them to seek elsewhere and pushing through rules and financial arrangements that make it worth their while to leave. You know the A-10 would immediately reach out to them if Georgetown, Villanova and St. John's go to the ACC.

If those four were willing to join the A-10 (which would then have 17 teams if UMass were leaving); they'd add one (Stony Brook or Hofstra to solidify New York) for an 18-team league.

But what if they took the initiative to form a new league with the top of the A-10 and leave the bottom schools behind?
East: Providence, Seton Hall, St. Joseph's, VCU, George Mason, Hofstra
West: Saint Louis, Marquette, DePaul, Butler, Xavier, Dayton

The A-10 would respond by raiding from the CAA/MAAC/Horizon/AmEast. Drexel and Stony Brook would be on the top of the list, with 3-5 others from a list of Quinnipiac, Detroit, Cleveland St, Long Island, Siena, Iona, etc.

The Big East wouldn't go away.


Perhaps "decimated" wasn't the right word. The conference would be dead in the water so much as the two factions are better off financially by separating than by hanging together. If you take the remaining Catholic basketball schools and infuse them with the best of the A-10 you have an excellent basketball product that would be appealing in a number of big television markets in the Midwest and Upper South. I like your mock up of what it would look like for the most part but I think Richmond, Duquesne, and George Washington's names should be thrown around too. Similarly, if you take the football faction and add in the best programs and markets from C-USA (lets say ECU, Charlotte, Tulane, Tulsa, and UTSA) you have a similarly attractive product in the Southeastern United States. At this point these schools are better off separating and cordially dividing the Big East's assets than trying to move on in their current arrangement.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:18 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
Perhaps "decimated" wasn't the right word. The conference would be dead in the water so much as the two factions are better off financially by separating than by hanging together. If you take the remaining Catholic basketball schools and infuse them with the best of the A-10 you have an excellent basketball product that would be appealing in a number of big television markets in the Midwest and Upper South.


If you're ESPN, I think you can replace the current Big East inventory by giving the ACC more money and adding the "Big East basketball only remnants with the top half of the A-10 and giving them a nice TV deal" at a lower rate than the Big East was getting. That saves ESPN $$$ and no one will notice you downgraded from Louisville-Cincinnati to Marquette-Xavier.

fighting muskie wrote:
I like your mock up of what it would look like for the most part but I think Richmond, Duquesne, and George Washington's names should be thrown around too.


I think that group would start small.

#1 - Fewer mouths to feed.
You're not going to get a very big pie from ESPN, and the fewer members you have, the bigger your slices are.

If you look at the A-10's currentl slate of ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU games (not counting the ESPN-sponsored tournament games), all but TWO game features: Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Saint Louis, St. Joseph's - or Temple (who's leaving anyway)

That other two games are: VCU vs Wichita State and Richmond vs Kansas. You don't need VCU AND Richmond. You pick one, and VCU's the hotter name with the Final Four run and Shaka Smart's charisma.

#2 - You don't want to go "Great Midwest" and have 80% of the conference leave 20% behind.
Because then you could have lawsuits (like Dayton vs Cincy, Louisville, Marquette and DePaul. Dayton was guaranteed games vs those four over a 10-year span as part of a settlement when they left the GMW for C-USA).

Assuming UMass gets an all-sports invite from an FBS conference, you'd have 13 A-10 schools left. I picked those six because:
Richmond - Not needed if you take VCU.
Rhode Island - Not needed because you have Providence.
LaSalle - not needed because you have St. Joseph's (to replace the Philly market)
St. Bonaventure - not needed because they're in a tiny market.
Fordham -- not very good; Stony Brook or Hofstra are better (to replace the NYC market. Plus Seton Hall would be against a NYC based, but Long Island based SBU or HU would be a good compromise).
George Washington - George Mason is a hotter name because of their Final Four run in 2006.

Duquesne - Pittsburgh market would be nice, but Duquesne hasn't made the NCAA in a long time and really doesn't move the meter (nor does GW).

So you wait and who emerges as a mid-major power (if anyone). If Richmond dominates the A-10, you wait a couple years and bring in the Spiders with Duquesne to add the Pittsburgh market. And there's always Creighton, Detroit, Milwaukee, Cleveland State, etc out there was well.

No need to go big at the start. With bigger revenue slices per team, that money will get re-invested and make all those programs better, the ESPN exposure will up their recruiting and then they can get bigger as TV negotiations warrant.

fighting muskie wrote:
Similarly, if you take the football faction and add in the best programs and markets from C-USA (lets say ECU, Charlotte, Tulane, Tulsa, and UTSA) you have a similarly attractive product in the Southeastern United States. At this point these schools are better off separating and cordially dividing the Big East's assets than trying to move on in their current arrangement.


The premise of this happening would be ESPN's meddling. If the ACC expands to a 14/18 model, ESPN really doesn't need the Big East except for Louisville, Cincy and Memphis. They have Oklahoma, Texas, North Carolina, Louisiana with their Big XII, ACC and SEC deals. The Big East would make moves for Charlotte, UMass, Tulsa and UTSA solely to try and get a TV deal from anyone -- most likely either the NBC or CBS Sports Networks. ECU and Tulane don't move the needle either.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 10:35 pm 
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On the bright side, Temple moves to the FB East Division....


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 11:57 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
On the bright side, Temple moves to the FB East Division....

Assuming UConn leaves and another Western member is added.

West-San Diego St, Boise St, SMU, Houston, Memphis (plus another Western member)
East-Louisville, Cincinnati, Temple, Navy, USF, UCF

In the discussion-
Full Members- ECU, UNCC, Marshall, UMass, Buffalo, Ohio, Miami OH, SoMiss, Tulane, Tulsa
FB onlys- Army, AFA, BYU, UNLV, Nevada, Fresno, Hawaii

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:24 am 
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tkalmus wrote:
tute79 wrote:
On the bright side, Temple moves to the FB East Division....

Assuming UConn leaves and another Western member is added.

West-San Diego St, Boise St, SMU, Houston, Memphis (plus another Western member)
East-Louisville, Cincinnati, Temple, Navy, USF, UCF

In the discussion-
Full Members- ECU, UNCC, Marshall, UMass, Buffalo, Ohio, Miami OH, SoMiss, Tulane, Tulsa
FB onlys- Army, AFA, BYU, UNLV, Nevada, Fresno, Hawaii


I honestly don't think the BE will stay cogent long enough for the BE to add another Western member--

The BE is potentially facing assaults on 3 fronts. BE members on one of those fronts are bound to cave under pressure and seek a more desirable situation and when they do its only going to redouble every one else's attempts to get out. The 3 fronts are:

ACC going hybrid and snapping up 1-3 of the most desirable bb programs (GT, Nova, St John's)
MWC getting Boise St and San Diego St to stay, effectively challenging the BE's stranglehold on the title "Best of the Gang of 5"
Big 12 getting antsy and going after Louisville and potentially others to fulfill a 12 or 14 team model


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:04 am 
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NYDaily news article(previously posted in another thread)reporting that RU BOG has accepted a Big Ten invite with a Presser scheduled for this afternoon at http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/colle ... -1.1204813


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:10 am 
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fighting muskie wrote:
tkalmus wrote:
tute79 wrote:
On the bright side, Temple moves to the FB East Division....

Assuming UConn leaves and another Western member is added.

West-San Diego St, Boise St, SMU, Houston, Memphis (plus another Western member)
East-Louisville, Cincinnati, Temple, Navy, USF, UCF

In the discussion-
Full Members- ECU, UNCC, Marshall, UMass, Buffalo, Ohio, Miami OH, SoMiss, Tulane, Tulsa
FB onlys- Army, AFA, BYU, UNLV, Nevada, Fresno, Hawaii


I honestly don't think the BE will stay cogent long enough for the BE to add another Western member--

The BE is potentially facing assaults on 3 fronts. BE members on one of those fronts are bound to cave under pressure and seek a more desirable situation and when they do its only going to redouble every one else's attempts to get out. The 3 fronts are:

ACC going hybrid and snapping up 1-3 of the most desirable bb programs (GT, Nova, St John's)
MWC getting Boise St and San Diego St to stay, effectively challenging the BE's stranglehold on the title "Best of the Gang of 5"
Big 12 getting antsy and going after Louisville and potentially others to fulfill a 12 or 14 team model

If the Big 12 were to expand, they'd beat first look at the ACC again, knowing schools are willing to move. FSU and Clemson, previously discussed schools, sure look like they'd have more flexibility knowing Maryland, a founder got up and left.

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