Fresno St. Alum wrote:
If I was the SEC I'd take national brand FSU and UNC. If UNC ends up in the B1G then VT.
Certainly agree with you on the first sentence if further expansion followed a particular scenario. Per VPI, there could be others more plausible or desired, including NCSU, UVA, Clemson, or GT. Why must it be assumed new expansion must come from an adjoining new state with the potential flaw it assures higher broadcast revenue distribution per school over a particular nearer program? Most situations it may, but not necessarily all.
So many are assuming it's all ACC pickins'. What if Texas changed their mind? Beyond sleeping with the enemy, it's not like they haven't explored all kinds of possibilities in their recent past. New technologies and media developments could make the LHN a relic of the past in a few years. An OU/OSU combo, or some derivative of such, for someone? Perhaps not out of the question.
We need to remember that if North Carolina and Virginia schools become vulnerable for pickins' with a way more injured ACC, there is still the politics involved in those two states. FSU, Clemson, and GT don't have to deal with the politics of in-state sister schools with regard to "leaving", only as a matter of "joining" if it is the SEC, where opposition cannot be so overt. Maryland did not have to cope with some in-state school being left behind with broken ties.
And, if the SEC and B1G were in a position to get together to decide how to divide-up certain North Carolina and Virginia schools, there could be a big disagreement about that, and it's no assurance the B1G would just have its way, given the location and complications involved.
sec03, I can understand you concern with the instability of the ACC, however, have to make a comment on your and everyone assumptions of the Big 12.
Sure Texas could change it mind and decide to join the Pac 12 in the next decade once the GOR is up for renewal.
The simple fact when everyone tries to compares the ACC with the Big 12 instability when there is no comparison at the moment between the two leagues. It is the reason for the USA Today article which many of us have recently refereed is so valid in the current state of conference realignment.
The facts in today's world is the Big 12 is stable and the ACC is not. It is a true that both conference lost members, however, it is how they stabilized going forward is the key to how stable a conference will be in the future not what happened in the past.
Like or not Texas has signed GOR for next 13 years and the ACC schools including Florida State have not. In fact Florida State along with Maryland which has already agreed to leave the ACC did not sign the exit fee hikes which implies how Florida State actually believes in the stability of the future of the ACC.
If the ACC could somehow stop all conference realignment until the Big 12 GOR expires, the ACC may have a chance to convince schools the ACC is a better fit.
The problem is the ACC does not have the time and money is going to drive conference alignment and continue sooner than latter and the ACC is prime pic-kins for any league wanting schools located in good markets.
We can spin it any way we like, it does not change the football performance of how the ACC has fared over the last decade which reflect in the TV contact and weakness in the ACC ability to claim power conference status.
It is the very reason that Maryland is gone for more money and Florida State will most likely be gone very soon as well. Florida state will make an estimated 10 million less that the nearest power league school and overtime this will have major impacts on a school surronded by SEC competatiors.
The very reason the ACC was able to raid the Big East for so many years is the same reason the other power leagues are returning the favor. They have more money to offer ACC schools to leave.
Compare that to Texas and the Pac 12 can not offer Texas more money to leave the current setup in the Big 12. It is the reason Texas signed GOR and Florida State has not.
If you go back to the comments of the Big Ten Commissioner, you only sigh GOR after the fact when all schools are stable and for sure what to be where they are.
Time has simply run out on the ACC. Time to face reality.