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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:01 pm 
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sec03 wrote:
Muskie's comment implying there could be new methodology to all this thinking was pensive.


I don't actually think that Delany, Slive, and company are going to have a sudden change in heart and completely reconsider the expansion paradigm I just wish that this realignment game we are playing was played with a different set of rules and it was more about conferences working together to drive up the prices they receive from television distributors by negotiating collectively while at the same time preserving the sanctity, tradition, and identities of conferences, some of whom have been around for over a 100 years. I'm just a hopeless traditionalist.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:48 pm 
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I guess the one positive of the ACC Doom scenario is that if Duke were left behind, they'd likely have a home in the Ivy League. Maybe squeeze Georgetown in also.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:22 pm 
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The school with the real political power in the ACC is UNC (think Texas per the B12, but not all being identical issues). During the last decade, other ACC schools (using collective effort and leaving threats) have come up against UNC & their underlings and prevailed on the question to at least expand. But UNC, with their allies, have shaped most of who got picked. If UNC goes anywhere, then the ACC truly becomes the old BE with two or three of the old ACC left behind. UNC could certainly make more revenue off fb & overall in the SEC or B1G, but relinquishing their unique power and influence, and so many convenience games, within the ACC is not something they would choose to let go of easily. It would take external forces breaking deep into the States of NC & VA for UNC to be motivated for elsewhere, and having knowledge they could be shut out of avenues to playoff designs and superior bowl opportunities.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:29 am 
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sec03 wrote:
The school with the real political power in the ACC is UNC (think Texas per the B12, but not all being identical issues). During the last decade, other ACC schools (using collective effort and leaving threats) have come up against UNC & their underlings and prevailed on the question to at least expand. But UNC, with their allies, have shaped most of who got picked. If UNC goes anywhere, then the ACC truly becomes the old BE with two or three of the old ACC left behind. UNC could certainly make more revenue off fb & overall in the SEC or B1G, but relinquishing their unique power and influence, and so many convenience games, within the ACC is not something they would choose to let go of easily. It would take external forces breaking deep into the States of NC & VA for UNC to be motivated for elsewhere, and having knowledge they could be shut out of avenues to playoff designs and superior bowl opportunities.


Indeed. I do think that if the Big Ten were to expand further south, that UNC and Virginia would be the better options out there. Combined with Maryland, Rutgers and Penn St., you'd have a solid 5 in the region for the network. GA Tech is appealing due to the Atlanta market, that is for sure. I guess in the perfect world, the Big Ten would go to 18 with Virginia, UNC, Duke and GA Tech.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:46 am 
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Quinn wrote:
sec03 wrote:
The school with the real political power in the ACC is UNC (think Texas per the B12, but not all being identical issues). During the last decade, other ACC schools (using collective effort and leaving threats) have come up against UNC & their underlings and prevailed on the question to at least expand. But UNC, with their allies, have shaped most of who got picked. If UNC goes anywhere, then the ACC truly becomes the old BE with two or three of the old ACC left behind. UNC could certainly make more revenue off fb & overall in the SEC or B1G, but relinquishing their unique power and influence, and so many convenience games, within the ACC is not something they would choose to let go of easily. It would take external forces breaking deep into the States of NC & VA for UNC to be motivated for elsewhere, and having knowledge they could be shut out of avenues to playoff designs and superior bowl opportunities.


Indeed. I do think that if the Big Ten were to expand further south, that UNC and Virginia would be the better options out there. Combined with Maryland, Rutgers and Penn St., you'd have a solid 5 in the region for the network. GA Tech is appealing due to the Atlanta market, that is for sure. I guess in the perfect world, the Big Ten would go to 18 with Virginia, UNC, Duke and GA Tech.


LOL this really is starting to sound like a dream conference thread but it could really happen. All of those schools would be a great additions to the Big Ten and then the only options left would be Miami (once they get over this scandal), BC, Syracuse, UConn, and Pitt. Also we have Missouri in the SEC who could decide to switch conferences (though I think its unlikely) and Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas in the Big 12 who would all be target when the GOR runs out.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:03 pm 
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After reading some things onlike UConn might join in with the bball schools in the split and go after the possible fb only spot in the ACC to offset ND.

While its not a full ACC membership, it is still a win win for UConn who gets to keep playing some great bball schools they have history with plus many new ones that will excite their bball crazy fan base and keep their football in a relevant conference that will give them an inside track to be added as a full member sometime in the future. And if they can keep the Big East name, tourney money and exit fees its a slam dunk.

While we've heard talk about Navy as the fb only member, I think the Southern ACC schools would rather take UConn as a fb only rather than Navy due to the fact that the academies in recent history have typically struggled at the higher levels of FBS. And while UConn isn't a slam dunk for fb, adding Cincy (considered the best remaining "Eastern" non AQ) would possibly passify them especially if they split division to North and South and allow the schools South of the NC/VA border to play each other each year and the schools North of the NC/VA border to play each other every year. Plus BC could still feel superior over UConn since they are not a full member and while they may not "like" it, it could bring some additional rivalry attention to both schools that neither has really had which will also carry over to any possible OOC bball games and Hockey East games.

The only cross over required would be UVA/UNC but it could be scrapped because in the grand scheme of things that game means little to saving the conference. I guess we could put UVA in the South and Miami in the North but then you'd have FSU/Mia and UVA/VPI having to play each other which really messes when thing when you add in that FSU plays UF each year too so 7 division games+1 permanent conference rival+1 interconference game+1 OOC rivalry game=10 games leaving them with only 2 true OOC games (which would be a cupcake and 1 real OOC game) and only playing everyone in the North once every 7 years (or twice every 14 if home and home).

This would make the South schools feel more connected and give the conference a greater since of self and also do the same with the North (formerly known as the BE-Mia+UVA). The only losers in this scenario (besides the rest of the BE) are the Virginia schools who the ACC would need to bend over backwards to keep happy so they don't bolt to the BigTen/SEC, but that being said culturally I think they belong in the North.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:29 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
After reading some things onlike UConn might join in with the bball schools in the split and go after the possible fb only spot in the ACC to offset ND.

While its not a full ACC membership, it is still a win win for UConn who gets to keep playing some great bball schools they have history with plus many new ones that will excite their bball crazy fan base and keep their football in a relevant conference that will give them an inside track to be added as a full member sometime in the future. And if they can keep the Big East name, tourney money and exit fees its a slam dunk.

While we've heard talk about Navy as the fb only member, I think the Southern ACC schools would rather take UConn as a fb only rather than Navy due to the fact that the academies in recent history have typically struggled at the higher levels of FBS. And while UConn isn't a slam dunk for fb, adding Cincy (considered the best remaining "Eastern" non AQ) would possibly passify them especially if they split division to North and South and allow the schools South of the NC/VA border to play each other each year and the schools North of the NC/VA border to play each other every year. Plus BC could still feel superior over UConn since they are not a full member and while they may not "like" it, it could bring some additional rivalry attention to both schools that neither has really had which will also carry over to any possible OOC bball games and Hockey East games.

The only cross over required would be UVA/UNC but it could be scrapped because in the grand scheme of things that game means little to saving the conference. I guess we could put UVA in the South and Miami in the North but then you'd have FSU/Mia and UVA/VPI having to play each other which really messes when thing when you add in that FSU plays UF each year too so 7 division games+1 permanent conference rival+1 interconference game+1 OOC rivalry game=10 games leaving them with only 2 true OOC games (which would be a cupcake and 1 real OOC game) and only playing everyone in the North once every 7 years (or twice every 14 if home and home).

This would make the South schools feel more connected and give the conference a greater since of self and also do the same with the North (formerly known as the BE-Mia+UVA). The only losers in this scenario (besides the rest of the BE) are the Virginia schools who the ACC would need to bend over backwards to keep happy so they don't bolt to the BigTen/SEC, but that being said culturally I think they belong in the North.


I'm not sold on that scenario. ACC has 14 football members. Adding Uconn means 15 for football, which is odd since Uconn football isn't exactly a powerhouse. What's the benefit of having 16 non-football members and 15 football members when football is more difficult to schedule? The ACC would need to work it out at an odd number so that each week 1 school had to have an off week or OOC game. Very difficult in the final 5 weeks of the year to schedule that many OOC games.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:27 pm 
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Quinn wrote:
tkalmus wrote:
After reading some things onlike UConn might join in with the bball schools in the split and go after the possible fb only spot in the ACC to offset ND.

While its not a full ACC membership, it is still a win win for UConn who gets to keep playing some great bball schools they have history with plus many new ones that will excite their bball crazy fan base and keep their football in a relevant conference that will give them an inside track to be added as a full member sometime in the future. And if they can keep the Big East name, tourney money and exit fees its a slam dunk.

While we've heard talk about Navy as the fb only member, I think the Southern ACC schools would rather take UConn as a fb only rather than Navy due to the fact that the academies in recent history have typically struggled at the higher levels of FBS. And while UConn isn't a slam dunk for fb, adding Cincy (considered the best remaining "Eastern" non AQ) would possibly passify them especially if they split division to North and South and allow the schools South of the NC/VA border to play each other each year and the schools North of the NC/VA border to play each other every year. Plus BC could still feel superior over UConn since they are not a full member and while they may not "like" it, it could bring some additional rivalry attention to both schools that neither has really had which will also carry over to any possible OOC bball games and Hockey East games.

The only cross over required would be UVA/UNC but it could be scrapped because in the grand scheme of things that game means little to saving the conference. I guess we could put UVA in the South and Miami in the North but then you'd have FSU/Mia and UVA/VPI having to play each other which really messes when thing when you add in that FSU plays UF each year too so 7 division games+1 permanent conference rival+1 interconference game+1 OOC rivalry game=10 games leaving them with only 2 true OOC games (which would be a cupcake and 1 real OOC game) and only playing everyone in the North once every 7 years (or twice every 14 if home and home).

This would make the South schools feel more connected and give the conference a greater since of self and also do the same with the North (formerly known as the BE-Mia+UVA). The only losers in this scenario (besides the rest of the BE) are the Virginia schools who the ACC would need to bend over backwards to keep happy so they don't bolt to the BigTen/SEC, but that being said culturally I think they belong in the North.


I'm not sold on that scenario. ACC has 14 football members. Adding Uconn means 15 for football, which is odd since Uconn football isn't exactly a powerhouse. What's the benefit of having 16 non-football members and 15 football members when football is more difficult to schedule? The ACC would need to work it out at an odd number so that each week 1 school had to have an off week or OOC game. Very difficult in the final 5 weeks of the year to schedule that many OOC games.

I know it wasn't fully clear (sorry on phone) but I think you read my post backwards (see the bold above)...UConn bb would stay with the Catholic schools and UConn fb could join the ACC as #15 fb instead of Navy (to offset #15 all sport ND) and #16 full member fb/bb would be Cincy. Only Temple and USF (semi ex-AQ schools) would be left out of the automatic bid conferences for the new post season.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:17 pm 
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OR, the ACC offers UCONN the same deal that ND received. ND & UCONN would switch-off/alternate their ACC fb opponents. UCONN would technically be fb independent but otherwise in the ACC for all else. The problem for UCONN perhaps, would be finding opponents for about 1/2 their fb schedule each season. Maybe it would be doable, if schools such as Army, Temple, UMass, other MAC schools, etc. would offer them regular games. The ACC, though, might not believe it is worth if for fb, and UCONN fb doesn't have high value that ND carries. But if it is the expectation for both to eventually be ACC all-sports members, grooming for the situation could be a consideration.

While WVU is now tied-up with the B12, and under a GoR set-up, one may wonder if WVU would still accept the ACC in a future offer. I say this from a geographic perspective (it's a long way to the rest of the B12 and some extended travel costs have to impact in some way); and even though Maryland is leaving the ACC, there remains some old and natural rivals in the ACC. Of course, this would depend on the ACC projecting solid stability and competitive revenue for the future, and the situation in the B12 would somehow lend itself for WVU to make a reasonable future departure. Also, the ACC adding WVU in the future would make the conference fully contiguous again; pending no other ACC schools would have left. The stronger fb schools in the ACC would find WVU usually very competitive with admirable fan support; and those ACC schools that were once in the BE, had WVU as a prior rival.

I know this is very speculative and futuristic, and a lot of "IFs" would be involved, but there is an appreciable degree of logic to it. I'll say again, the ACC made a mistake not taking WVU earlier. Louisville is suppose to be "academic", but WVU is not? The ACC let their own snobbery and narrow attitudes hurt themselves.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:36 pm 
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I think UConn is the next in line for a full invite, Cincy would need to ask for the fb only.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:19 pm 
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With a potential movement to four major super conferences, everyone one appears to want to put the ACC and Big 12 in odds with the other super conference survivors.

I see this recent move by the Big Ten with Maryland as a method to divide and conquer.

What if the ACC and Big 12 pull a fast one a pull a trump card on the Big Ten expansion movements.

I have always bought in to the fact we are heading to super conferences. I just do not necessarily see the cookie cutter four 16 conference type alignment. Someone would have to be in charge to make this type of smooth transition.

What if the Big 12 and ACC formed a new conference the "Super-24" and split into four six team divisions. The new conference could force the NCAA to change the rule and allow semi final conference football championship games along with a championship game or split from the NCAA and will explain latter with basketball in this post.

Since the TV contacts are already great for the Big 12, the ACC schools would need to bring in more money to avoid the Big 12 schools taking a cut in pay. The four team conference playoff with semi final and final conference championship game could make up some of the difference which would make the Big 12 more acceptable to a possible merger based on revenue.

The 24 schools could split into four perfectly aligned geographical regions called Northeast, Northwest, Southeast, and Southwest six team divisions.

Northeast; Syracuse, Boston College, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina

Northwest: Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

Southeast: North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State

Southwest: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Football division champions would play semi final conference games with championship game advancing to Sugar Bowl and runner up to Orange Bowl or best teams not making the four team playoff playing in the Orange and Sugar bowls.

Hey NCAA you do not approve this move to semi final games for football, the Super-24 could break off from the NCAA and take most of the best basketball schools in the process and create their own post season.

Each division could play regional tournaments in say Kansas City for the Northwest, Dallas for the Southwest, Atlanta for the Southeast and Charlotte for the Northeast.

The four champions could advance to say NYC for a final four that would rival the NCAA final four tournament.

How about a final four basketball tournament of Kansas, Duke, Texas, and North Carolina State for example could out draw the NCAA final four.

Ok the NCAA would give in and allow semi final football games to avoid losing some of the best basketball schools to be available for the NCAA March Madness.

This year could have included Kansas State verses Virgina Tech in one semi final football game and Florida State verses Oklahoma in the other semi final football championship game with a possible rematch of Kansas State and Oklahoma in the Super-24 championship game filling in the void in December.



If Kansas State emerged from this four team conference playoff this year could have overtaken Alabama for the BCS tittle game participant and played Notre Dame.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:31 pm 
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I know there is no data to support it, but I still think that at some point, the Pac-12 might come back at Texas & friends to create a Pac-16. Those are still the only 2 programs that help the Pac-12. Key will be seeing how the LNH plays out. Got to think that there is some kind of clause hidden away in the contracts that allows for a breaking of the GOR under a Texas scenario. Just find it hard to think that Texas/OU, which are the reason the Big 12 is still around, wouldn't have some tricky out hidden under their sleeve.

For the ACC, it seems like they have to worry about the Big Ten (adding 2) and even potentially the Big 12 (FSU, GA Tech, Miami, Clemson).

In the meantime, the ACC is in a fine spot with 14 members for football and ND for scheduling. They lucked out in losing only MAryland to the Big Ten and having a quality replacement in Louisville.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:44 pm 
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During the summer when the Pac 12 almost became the Pac 16, there were very reliable rumors reported on ESPN the SEC would exapnd with Texas A&M, Missouri, Florida State, and Clemson to reach 16.

I see the same issue occuring with the SEC this time with the Big Ten pushing for 16 by taking most likley Virginia and North Carolina and the SEC comming back for both Florida State and Clemson.

The Big Ten will wait to see if they can save a few bucks with the Maryland law suite before making any more moves with Virgina and North Carolina. In the end it will not matter for a rich conference like the Big Ten and will take what ever teams they wish regardless of the exit fees. So waiting to see if the Maryland exit fees can be trimmed down to 20 to 25 million is worth the hold up at the present time.

So what would this leave as options for the ACC. I see the ACC holding up with 10 members and avoiding a championship game that has never been very sucessful for the ACC. This would also increase share per school if the current contact was not reduced by ESPN.

Miami
Georgia Tech if not taken by the Big Ten
North Carolina State
Duke
Wake
Virginia Tech
Louisivlle
Pitt
Syracuse
Boston College

Not sure if Notre Dame would continue to partipate in this 10 member league. I am guessing Notre Dame would have no problem and continue to gain benefits without having to join as a full member.

Basically the ACC would become the old Big East ironically before the first ACC raid. Tit for Tat would be the Big East response.

This 10 member may not be a bad situation for the future by playing round robin football and double round robin basketball.

GOR may finally be possilbe if not other ACC teams are targets for other leagues.

I beleive the Big 12 is content on holding up with 10 and would most likley not want any ACC school that did not include Florida State in the mix.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:48 pm 
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Not so sure about the SEC, lash. Talk was pretty universal that they didn't want to add schools from states already in the SEC...which is why Florida St. and Clemson were not taken. Instead, TAMU and Missouri were. I mean, if you have the choice between Florida St., Clemson, GA Tech and Missouri, would you take Missouri?

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:51 pm 
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lash wrote:
So what would this leave as options for the ACC. I see the ACC holding up with 10 members and avoiding a championship game that has never been very sucessful for the ACC. This would also increase share per school if the current contact was not reduced by ESPN.

Miami
Georgia Tech if not taken by the Big Ten
North Carolina State
Duke
Wake
Virginia Tech
Louisivlle
Pitt
Syracuse
Boston College

Not sure if Notre Dame would continue to partipate in this 10 member league. I am guessing Notre Dame would have no problem and continue to gain benefits without having to join as a full member.

Basically the ACC would become the old Big East ironically before the first ACC raid. Tit for Tat would be the Big East response.

This 10 member may not be a bad situation for the future by playing round robin football and double round robin basketball.

GOR may finally be possilbe if not other ACC teams are targets for other leagues.

I beleive the Big 12 is content on holding up with 10 and would most likley not want any ACC school that did not include Florida State in the mix.


I think if UVA and UNC bolt to the Big Ten that the SEC would go for VPI and NCSU.

The reason FSU/Clemson were being tossed around was that they were outsiders to the 7 Tabbaco Road teams (4NC/2VA/MD) and it seemed that those bonds were virtually unbreakable. Maryland's gone and its showing some weakness in the ACC but if UVA/UNC jump to the Big Ten then its over. and .


Without UVA, VA Tech is not attached to the rest of the ACC/BE and obviously would ditch them like they did the BE in 2004.

Similarly if UNC goes then their BOR would surely grant NCSU the ability to move as well. NCSU has less in common with the rest of whats left in the ACC/BE and more in common with FSU/Clemson that would all fit into the SEC. (No one wants to be left in the weakest conference while their rival schools jump ship).

And it appears that reported rumor is very similar to ND, NU, MU, MD, Rutgers to the Big Ten back in 2010. Nebraska/ND were to add fb strength/eyeballs while MD/Rut/MU added markets. The Big Ten realized after adding Nebraska that they needed more markets (like most of us thought) and grabbed them.

The difference is that the SEC doesn't need more football strength (nearly half the league was in the top ten) and as much as I hate to admit it A&M was a slam dunk for them in both (Mizzou not so much). The SEC STILL needs markets because all they have is some "pull" in TX/FL/MO/TN plus ATL and NOLA. The other schools are in small market states like MS/AL/KY/SC so adding more major markets and/or new states is a must especially with the SEC network on the horizon.

The only Southern"ish" markets out there w/ a legitimate fb school not in a state with an exsiting SEC school are NC (total pop of 10 mil/DMA over 7mil) VA (total pop of 8 mil+9mil BaltDC/DMA over 4mil+7mil BaltDC) OK (total pop 3 million), KS (total pop 3 million), and WV (2 million). (I'd add Cincy/Pitt to the list but at this time I think the SEC is trying to work with the Big Ten and taking Mizzou already pushed into their territory a bit so I'd doubt they'd grab those two school in two of their premeir states any time soon.)

Besides them you get into estimated market penetration of exsisting SEC states, which is low.

The SEC only has 1 school in...

Texas (total pop of 26 mil) even if you added UT you'd still not get close to 20 mil penetration so estimated impact would be less than 10 million

Florida (total pop of 19 mil) even if you added FSU or Miami (Miami would most likely do better in the South market since FSU and UF are in the North) you'd still not get close to 16 mil penetration so estimated impact would be less than 8 million.

Georgia (total pop of 10 million) so adding GA Tech a best would get you 4 million in market penetration making them an unlikely addition if other options are available.

South Carolina (total pop of 5 million) so adding Clemson at best would get you 2-3 million in market penetration making them an unlikely addition if other options are available.

Kentucky (total pop of 4.5 million) so adding Louiville at best would get you 1 million in market penetration making them an unlikely addition if other options are available.

So adding NC/VPI seem like the most realistic possibilities but I could see them grabbing FSU or another TX school (if the Big 12 didn't have the GOR no way on Houston/SMU/Rice) but Clemson doesn't look very apealing. Its one of those move you do for rivalries and history but that would be different than every move we've seen thus far (with the big conferences).

Still if we use your pedictions, I have a hard time thinking the ACC after losing their Big 5 in Maryland, Virginia, UNC, FSU, and Clemson will just stand pat.

I understand your logic but I have a feeling that they'll feel the need to at least add UConn (the most attractive bball school in their footprint) and possibly a solid fb school like Cinncy or USF (if Miami wants) to get back to 12. If 14 is the real goal then USF and Temple would be the most logical candidates and people would still respect the conference's lineup that now completes the consolidation of the 6 AQ BCS conferences circa 2004 (w/ Temple) 2005 (w/ UL/UC/USF/UConn).

Besides possibly adding Army/Navy/ND, any future additions from any of the nonAQs including the Big East would be met with distain (similar to how we feel about the Big East now) and the ACC would be at risk of joining the non-AQs when the new playoff deal is renegotiated in 2025.

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