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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:35 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
Quinn wrote:
With the reports that the A10 will reach out to the Big East non-football schools, a potential look of some division options:

EAST:
Massachusetts
Providence
Rhode Island
St. Johns
Fordham
Seton Hall
Villanova
Georgetown
George Washington
Richmond
Virginia Commonwealth

WEST:
Saint Louis
Depaul
Marquette
Butler
Dayton
Xavier
Duquesne
St. Bonaventure
Saint Joseph's
La Salle


- Nova gets to be lone Philly school in the east
- Gotta think it might make sense to include another western school like a Creighton for a balanced 22 if doing 2 divisions

If they are serious about keeping 21 (and not going to 22)
NORTH:
Massachusetts
Providence
Rhode Island
St. Johns
Fordham
Seton Hall
St. Bonaventure (odd ball but fits)

EAST:
Saint Joseph's
Villanova
La Salle
Georgetown
George Washington
Richmond
Virginia Commonwealth

WEST:
Saint Louis
Depaul
Marquette
Butler
Dayton
Xavier
Duquesne (odd ball but fits)

Play everyone home and home in your division (12) plus 4 from each of the other 2 (4+4) and designate a "rival" in those games if needed. For the conference tourney take the top 2 from each division plus 2 at large for a simple seeded 8 or go to 16 giving the top 5 in each division bids plus 1 at large.




The 3 divisions is by far the best setup, regionally speaking.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:01 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
If there were a reason to merge with the A-10, you could get to 24, by bringing in UConn, Temple, and Cincy, and have those 3 play MAC FB along with UMass.
That would get MAC FB to 16.

Boise and SDSU back to the MWC, for 11/12 (BYU, Idaho, and NMSU are still out there....).

UCF, USF, ECU, Memphis, Houston, SMU talk to CUSA.... that would make 14 + 6 = 20.

CUSA + MWC would have 32 = 2 16-team conferences.

I know.... dream conference thread.... OR IS IT ???

That would work but SMU/Houston will never rejoin w/ UNT/UTSA and I think USF/UCF would have something to say about FAU/FIU, and you forgot Tulane so 21...

More likely that SMU/Houston join BSU/SDSU in the MWC and convice BYU and a 16th (UTEP/NMSU/Tulsa) to join than rejoin CUSA. That being said odds are the the nBE is even more likely that those two assuming it doesn't get dissolved.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:28 pm 
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There's absolutely zero reason for the Big East schools to join the A-10.


Let's look at three options:
A21 - Atlantic 10 with 21-teams (St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul join A-10)
14A - St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul split and add Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Saint Louis and VCU/Richmond and Duquesne
14B - Same as 14A, only with one of VCU OR Richmond, and Creighton

Footprint: People living in the metro areas where there are teams in the conference:
A21 - 54,953,306 (contract split 21 ways)
14A - 54,587,930 (contract split 14 ways)
14B - 55,465,040 (contract split 14 ways)

If A21 was worth the Big East's while to split --- let's say, $2 million each from TV; so $42 million total for the conference --- then 14A would be worth about $41.5 million and $2.95 mil each; and 14B would be worth about $45 million and $3.21 million each.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:11 pm 
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I can't decide if the A-21 is a realistic model for the A-10 and the Catholic 7 or if its a desperation attempt by the weaker A-10 schools to stay relevant when they know that the Catholic 7 could easily strip the A-10 of its best programs if the Catholic 7 decided to go at it alone. I hope I don't offend anyone, I know we have a big St Bonny fan on here, but many of the A-10 schools would not bring in a market or are redundant in that the Catholic 7 already have their market covered.

Why do you need URI when you have Providence?
Why do you need George Washington when you have Georgetown?
Why do you need St Joe's and LaSalle when you have Villanova?
Why do you need Fordham when you have St John's and Seton Hall?
What television value does St Bonaventure bring in upstate NY?
If the Catholic 7 want the Richmond market they don't need both Richmond and VCU.

If the Catholic 7 are going to leave they may as well start their own league and try to keep as much revenue for themselves as they can without spreading it among the entire A-10. it would make more sense to pick a select few from the following:

Xavier
St Louis
Dayton
Butler
Duquesne
UMass
Richmond or VCU

I'd simply pick 5 from that list and make a 12 team league.

I know there is some concern with a new league about not getting any past due credits from the NCAAMBBT and that it's spead over a 6 yr span. Here are the credits that the A-10 has due them--not positive on how exactly it works or whether they are a lot or a little:

2013--don't know yet
2012--4 bids, 2 made it to rnd of 32, 1 to S16
2011--3 bids, 2 made it to rnd of 32, 1 to S16
2010--3 bids, 1 made it to rnd of 32, 1 to S16
2009--3 bids, 2 made it to rnd of 32, 1 to S16
2008--3 bids, 1 made it to rnd of 32, 1 to S16, 1 to E8

Anyone know what kind of dough the A-10 is due for these games?


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:54 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
If there were a reason to merge with the A-10, you could get to 24, by bringing in UConn, Temple, and Cincy, and have those 3 play MAC FB along with UMass.
That would get MAC FB to 16.

Boise and SDSU back to the MWC, for 11/12 (BYU, Idaho, and NMSU are still out there....).

UCF, USF, ECU, Memphis, Houston, SMU talk to CUSA.... that would make 14 + 6 = 20.

CUSA + MWC would have 32 = 2 16-team conferences.

I know.... dream conference thread.... OR IS IT ???


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:57 pm 
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Article out of St Louis discussing future "possibilty" of SLU being able to leave the A-10 for the BE at http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/ ... 3b997.html


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:21 pm 
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Why the hell would the BE bball schools want to take on and share the wealth w/ all that baggage? Just take 3 to 5 A10 schools and split. If they keep the AQ great(they have 7 members) if not who cares they'll get in the tourney.

They need to have a sit down w/ the NCAA to let them keep the name and give the fb schools a bigger chunk of the exit fees, let the bball keep their name/credits. NCAA needs to know this isn't the same NCAA as it was in 1991 when they started BE fb and they need to split and get a waiver.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:30 pm 
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Here we go!

fighting muskie wrote:
I can't decide if the A-21 is a realistic model for the A-10 and the Catholic 7 or if its a desperation attempt by the weaker A-10 schools to stay relevant when they know that the Catholic 7 could easily strip the A-10 of its best programs if the Catholic 7 decided to go at it alone.


Yes. No. Kinda. Both.

It's the Atlantic 10 as a whole publicly inviting them to get attention.
It's safe for everyone in the A-10, because it raises their profile if they somehow say yes.
It's safe for the top half of the A-10, because it presents unity and loyalty, when really opening lines of communication to call up the Big East 7 and begging and pleading for an invite if they split.
It's safe for the bottom half of the A-10, because they think it can showcase how ridiculous it would be for The Big East 7 to split, because the bottom have does NOT want that BE split, or they'll be left behind.

fighting muskie wrote:

I hope I don't offend anyone, I know we have a big St Bonny fan on here, but many of the A-10 schools would not bring in a market or are redundant in that the Catholic 7 already have their market covered.


I'm the Bona fan (I take it you missed my Big East thread post. Bona, not Bonny), and no, I'm not offended. I know it has nothing to do with my school -- which is the reigning Atlantic 10 Champions, was one of 28 schools to have both men and women in the dance last season; competes in the conference with the smallest budget and makes a lot of other schools with more money look silly.

It has everything to do with the non-existent market that is Olean, NY. Without the Van Breda Kolff welder scandal, and the Rigas scandal, MAYBE we'd have a shot. Rigas was on our board, and put games on his Empire Sports Network. Without those scandals, maybe we don't suck for seven years and have great regional exposure. Maybe we get the nod for a #14 spot if they go with VCU, Richmond and Duquesne because we can bring a slice of Buffalo and Rochester.

But alas, we're boned if the Big East splits.

fighting muskie wrote:
Why do you need URI when you have Providence?
Why do you need George Washington when you have Georgetown?
Why do you need St Joe's and LaSalle when you have Villanova?
Why do you need Fordham when you have St John's and Seton Hall?
What television value does St Bonaventure bring in upstate NY?


They don't. Which is why the Atlantic-21 will never happen (Nor an Atlantic-20 with a 7-for-1 UMass trade).

fighting muskie wrote:
If the Catholic 7 want the Richmond market they don't need both Richmond and VCU.
If the Catholic 7 are going to leave they may as well start their own league and try to keep as much revenue for themselves as they can without spreading it among the entire A-10. it would make more sense to pick a select few from the following:

Xavier, St Louis, Dayton, Butler, Duquesne, UMass, Richmond or VCU

I'd simply pick 5 from that list and make a 12 team league.


Xavier and SLU are locks. The real question is: 9, 10 or 12?
Right now, the odds would be on 12, because you get easy divisions which help balance the league out:
Five of the top six would be in the West: Xavier, Marquette, Villanova, Georgetown, Saint Louis, Butler. Well, whomever is 4th in the West is going to be behind third in the East on the NCAA bubble, and maybe you can get 6-7 teams into the dance.

fighting muskie wrote:
I know there is some concern with a new league about not getting any past due credits from the NCAAMBBT and that it's spead over a 6 yr span.

Anyone know what kind of dough the A-10 is due for these games?


1 bid = one share.
each win = one share.
Each share is made up of six units, paid out over six years.

So 2008 is six units each in 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14.
And 2009 is six units each in 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.
Etc.

Each unit is in "current dollars" based on the escalating CBS contract with the NCAA Tournament. I don't know exactly what they are up to now, but I'd estimate somewhere in the $300,000 to $450,000 range, each.

The A-10 is mostly "make it, take it." The league takes a cut and then schools get about 80% of the units they earned for the league. So, Xavier would be walking out on a decent some of money.

But it would make long-term financial sense for Xavier to walk away from that and into a situation with the Big East Catholic schools. And realignment is a negotiation between the school and conferences: Schools can work out various revenue sharing deals. Most conferences are replacing someone who left, and can use departing schools NCAA shares to grease the tracks (like the A-10 did for Butler and VCU).

If the Big East catholic schools can simply say "Why don't YOU LEAVE, football! We'll waive any exit fees for you and we'll split all the old exit fees. We just want the name. If you say no, we will dissolve the league, screw all of us over and take our chances." Then the Big East would have all the NCAA shares from teams like Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, Louisville rolling in, and the conference revenue sharing makes it worthwhile for someone like Xavier to bail.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:20 am 
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JPSchmack wrote:
There's absolutely zero reason for the Big East schools to join the A-10.


Let's look at three options:
A21 - Atlantic 10 with 21-teams (St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul join A-10)
14A - St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul split and add Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Saint Louis and VCU/Richmond and Duquesne
14B - Same as 14A, only with one of VCU OR Richmond, and Creighton

Footprint: People living in the metro areas where there are teams in the conference:
A21 - 54,953,306 (contract split 21 ways)
14A - 54,587,930 (contract split 14 ways)
14B - 55,465,040 (contract split 14 ways)

If A21 was worth the Big East's while to split --- let's say, $2 million each from TV; so $42 million total for the conference --- then 14A would be worth about $41.5 million and $2.95 mil each; and 14B would be worth about $45 million and $3.21 million each.


JP, you are focusing too much on "market" and not enough on "market penetration", which is key here since it includes brand resonance. St. John's and Fordham are in the same market. So are Wagner and Manhattan. So are you saying that all 4 schools are of equal TV value because they are in the same city? Same concept for Philly where Villanova is a more valuable product and brand than LaSalle and St. Joe's, and Georgetown is over GW.

I agree in that I too think 21 is a stretch. But when it comes to value estimates, there is no doubt that the Big East properties currently in the same cities as A10 schools are of higher value.

The key comes down to simply being the tournament shares and exit fee money. If the football schools allowed the Big East non-football schools to leave the Big East and collect all the owed money, I think the 7 schools would leave and sure, consider joining the A10 which is already established. But no way they walk away from all that money, leaving it for Uconn, USF and Cincy as well as all the newcomers.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:59 pm 
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Quinn wrote:

JP, you are focusing too much on "market" and not enough on "market penetration", which is key here since it includes brand resonance. St. John's and Fordham are in the same market. So are Wagner and Manhattan. So are you saying that all 4 schools are of equal TV value because they are in the same city?


No. Where'd you get THAT out of what I wrote?

I'm saying that Fordham, LaSalle, St. Joe's, GW and URI bring little to nothing to the table because they are in the same cities as St. John's, Villanova, Georgetown and Providence.

There's no reason for the Big East Seven to accept to join all of the A-10, when they can set up shop on their own and take the seven non-redundant markets.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:14 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Quinn wrote:

JP, you are focusing too much on "market" and not enough on "market penetration", which is key here since it includes brand resonance. St. John's and Fordham are in the same market. So are Wagner and Manhattan. So are you saying that all 4 schools are of equal TV value because they are in the same city?


No. Where'd you get THAT out of what I wrote?

I'm saying that Fordham, LaSalle, St. Joe's, GW and URI bring little to nothing to the table because they are in the same cities as St. John's, Villanova, Georgetown and Providence.

There's no reason for the Big East Seven to accept to join all of the A-10, when they can set up shop on their own and take the seven non-redundant markets.


Oh, ok. Yes, I agree.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:58 pm 
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most of the talk involving the a10 losing schools includes losing the midwestern flank Xaiver, Dayton, St. Louis, and/or Butler. If any or all of these schools go, does the a10 find replacements from the caa or maac OR do they try to maintain a midwestern presence and take some horizon league schools?


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:05 pm 
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accseahawk wrote:
most of the talk involving the a10 losing schools includes losing the midwestern flank Xaiver, Dayton, St. Louis, and/or Butler. If any or all of these schools go, does the a10 find replacements from the caa or maac OR do they try to maintain a midwestern presence and take some horizon league schools?


I'm wondering if they'd even be able to. If the BE split costs them 5-7 schools (especially the top ones) are they even superior to a conference like the CAA? Not to mention UMass would likely end up in a football conference. If they lose as many as 6-8 that would put with only 6-8 left. Does Fordham start looking at the Patriot League full time? VCU may look at going back to the CAA if they're left out for Richmond. The American East wouldn't look so bad for Rhode Island. I would think an AEast/A10 merger would be considered. The A10 name is pretty good so I would probably keep that.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:24 pm 
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accseahawk wrote:
most of the talk involving the a10 losing schools includes losing the midwestern flank Xaiver, Dayton, St. Louis, and/or Butler. If any or all of these schools go, does the a10 find replacements from the caa or maac OR do they try to maintain a midwestern presence and take some horizon league schools?


With the Midwestern flank gone I think the A-10 has to look south. Realignment is driven by television markets, penetration of those markets, and the allure/prestige/popularity/success of a program. In the Midwest there simply just not any big city programs in the MVC or Horizon, save maybe Creighton and Detroit, that could do that for the A-10. The schools you would be picking from either have no market or no market penetration.

I see the A-10's restocking mission to be two-fold. I think they need to A) shore up some of their remaining markets and B ) drag the footprint South. I think going out and grabbing Hofstra to improve their status in NYC is a good move. If UMass leaves then I think Northeastern should be in the conversation. While the Philly marker is pretty well covered, I don't think Drexel's should be completely overlooked. Some of the stronger America East and MAAC schools should also me in the mix and fill in any geographic "holes" within the existing footprint.

Going South is the other part of what they need to do. Get George Mason back on the phone and I think your UNC-Wilmington Seahawks should be on the A-10's radar as well.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:23 am 
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SJSUFan2010 wrote:
If the BE split costs them 5-7 schools (especially the top ones) are they even superior to a conference like the CAA?

Yes. Yes they are. Aside from George Mason, no one in the CAA has ever received an at-large bid. The A-10 has a much better tradition, reputation, market presence and remaining schools.

SJSUFan2010 wrote:
Not to mention UMass would likely end up in a football conference.

Correct.

SJSUFan2010 wrote:
Does Fordham start looking at the Patriot League full time?

Hopefully!

SJSUFan2010 wrote:
VCU may look at going back to the CAA if they're left out for Richmond.


Why? The CAA and A10 would each need more members; and it's clear that the most recent success of the remaining 18 members of the two leagues is by VCU and George Mason. Those two essentially pick which group to build around:

Group A: 8 NCAA bids, 4 NCAA wins the last decade; 49 NCAA bids, 49 NCAA wins all-time, (4 Final Fours, 4 EEs, 9 S16s)
Group B: 3 NCAA bids, 1 NCAA win the last decade; 33 NCAA bids, 9 NCAA wins all-time (0 S16s)

Choice is obvious. The issue of whom else to add is the hazy part. After George Mason, I'm taking Stony Brook (hopefully as a Fordham replacement).
You could add Drexel so no one else has Philly access.
Or aim for a Buffalo addition (Niagara/Canisius)
Quinnipiac is investing in athletics like Stony Brook.
Detroit would be an option for market purposes.
They might get creative and offer Belmont a spot.

SJSUFan2010 wrote:
The American East wouldn't look so bad for Rhode Island. I would think an AEast/A10 merger would be considered. The A10 name is pretty good so I would probably keep that.


Let me go ask a URI fan what they think of that.

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