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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:26 am 
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The presidents of the Big East's seven Catholic, non-Football Bowl Subdivision schools are expected to decide on their future in the Big East in the coming days, and it "would be an upset" if they remained in the league, sources told ESPN.

The seven schools -- DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall and Villanova -- are "close to a consensus on what they want to do next," a source said Wednesday.

The presidents of the seven schools are scheduled to conduct a teleconference with Big East commissioner Mike Aresco on Thursday and are expected to issue a statement on their schools' future in the next 24 to 48 hours.


http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8742607/seven-catholic-schools-leaning-leaving-big-east-sources-say

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:47 am 
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JPSchmack wrote:
SJSUFan2010 wrote:
If the BE split costs them 5-7 schools (especially the top ones) are they even superior to a conference like the CAA?

Yes. Yes they are. Aside from George Mason, no one in the CAA has ever received an at-large bid. The A-10 has a much better tradition, reputation, market presence and remaining schools.


Right, so George Mason is the only school any good in the south-ish area. They were invited and didn't come while the conference had all its top members. So you're trying to tell me you think they'll come after they lose the top 8 schools?

I agree that name wise the A-10 beats out the conferences in the area which is why I think the name will be kept.


SJSUFan2010 wrote:
VCU may look at going back to the CAA if they're left out for Richmond.


JPSchmack wrote:
Why? The CAA and A10 would each need more members; and it's clear that the most recent success of the remaining 18 members of the two leagues is by VCU and George Mason. Those two essentially pick which group to build around:

Group A: 8 NCAA bids, 4 NCAA wins the last decade; 49 NCAA bids, 49 NCAA wins all-time, (4 Final Fours, 4 EEs, 9 S16s)
Group B: 3 NCAA bids, 1 NCAA win the last decade; 33 NCAA bids, 9 NCAA wins all-time (0 S16s)


So I'm assuming you've removed VCU and GMU from the groups. I guess we're looking at the same data and getting different conclusions. If group B is the CAA why on earth would the remaining 6 A-10 schools WANT to add a bunch of teams from the south, none of which will likely lead to any extra tournament appearances and just mean having to split the pie more ways. And if you're a southern CAA school, why on earth would you want to add to your travel and play a bunch of Big East rejects? Because you may get an extra couple wins per decade?

But most of all, you're hung up on the all time numbers. The schools left in either conference have not had much success in the past decade aside from VCU and GMU.


JPSchmack wrote:
SJSUFan2010 wrote:
The American East wouldn't look so bad for Rhode Island. I would think an AEast/A10 merger would be considered. The A10 name is pretty good so I would probably keep that.


Let me go ask a URI fan what they think of that.


Certainly now it doesn't sound good. But when they're only left with La Salle and St. Bona and the small schools that were left out due to their lack of market penetration, it seems clear the A-10 wouldn't be getting many $$$ so at that point would you prefer joining a conference with less travel? Remember this was the school that had to leave the CAA football due to the lack of northeastern teams and that was just one sport.

Maybe if I do it this way. I expect the Big East 7 to expand to 14 with these 6 and Creighton.

A-10
Butler - Big East
Dayton - Big East
Duquesne - Big East
Fordham
George Washington
La Salle
UMass - BE Football
URI
Richmond - Big East
St Bona
St Joe's
St. Louis - Big East
VCU
Xavier - Big East

This leaves
Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, URI, St Bona, St Joe's, VCU (throw in one more, Duquesne maybe, if you think the Big East only goes to 12).

Do they really have the ability to steal top schools like George Mason from the CAA? I say no which is why I see Fordham to the Patriot full time and VCU looking to join George Mason in the CAA (though maybe GMU didn't join the A-10 was because the conference was too good, wanted to stay in a weaker conference?). The two can dominate the conference and get two bids most years.

The only reason I would say A-10/AE merger wouldn't happen is because they'd want to keep the auto bid. Then maybe they find a way to stay alive. URI is a public school so even if the MAAC wanted to house some A-10 schools, they likely wouldn't be included.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:29 am 
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SJSUFan2010 wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
SJSUFan2010 wrote:
If the BE split costs them 5-7 schools (especially the top ones) are they even superior to a conference like the CAA?

Yes. Yes they are. Aside from George Mason, no one in the CAA has ever received an at-large bid. The A-10 has a much better tradition, reputation, market presence and remaining schools.


Right, so George Mason is the only school any good in the south-ish area. They were invited and didn't come while the conference had all its top members. So you're trying to tell me you think they'll come after they lose the top 8 schools?

I agree that name wise the A-10 beats out the conferences in the area which is why I think the name will be kept.


SJSUFan2010 wrote:
VCU may look at going back to the CAA if they're left out for Richmond.


JPSchmack wrote:
Why? The CAA and A10 would each need more members; and it's clear that the most recent success of the remaining 18 members of the two leagues is by VCU and George Mason. Those two essentially pick which group to build around:

Group A: 8 NCAA bids, 4 NCAA wins the last decade; 49 NCAA bids, 49 NCAA wins all-time, (4 Final Fours, 4 EEs, 9 S16s)
Group B: 3 NCAA bids, 1 NCAA win the last decade; 33 NCAA bids, 9 NCAA wins all-time (0 S16s)


So I'm assuming you've removed VCU and GMU from the groups. I guess we're looking at the same data and getting different conclusions. If group B is the CAA why on earth would the remaining 6 A-10 schools WANT to add a bunch of teams from the south, none of which will likely lead to any extra tournament appearances and just mean having to split the pie more ways. And if you're a southern CAA school, why on earth would you want to add to your travel and play a bunch of Big East rejects? Because you may get an extra couple wins per decade?

But most of all, you're hung up on the all time numbers. The schools left in either conference have not had much success in the past decade aside from VCU and GMU.


JPSchmack wrote:
SJSUFan2010 wrote:
The American East wouldn't look so bad for Rhode Island. I would think an AEast/A10 merger would be considered. The A10 name is pretty good so I would probably keep that.


Let me go ask a URI fan what they think of that.


Certainly now it doesn't sound good. But when they're only left with La Salle and St. Bona and the small schools that were left out due to their lack of market penetration, it seems clear the A-10 wouldn't be getting many $$$ so at that point would you prefer joining a conference with less travel? Remember this was the school that had to leave the CAA football due to the lack of northeastern teams and that was just one sport.

Maybe if I do it this way. I expect the Big East 7 to expand to 14 with these 6 and Creighton.

A-10
Butler - Big East
Dayton - Big East
Duquesne - Big East
Fordham
George Washington
La Salle
UMass - BE Football
URI
Richmond - Big East
St Bona
St Joe's
St. Louis - Big East
VCU
Xavier - Big East

This leaves
Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, URI, St Bona, St Joe's, VCU (throw in one more, Duquesne maybe, if you think the Big East only goes to 12).

Do they really have the ability to steal top schools like George Mason from the CAA? I say no which is why I see Fordham to the Patriot full time and VCU looking to join George Mason in the CAA (though maybe GMU didn't join the A-10 was because the conference was too good, wanted to stay in a weaker conference?). The two can dominate the conference and get two bids most years.

The only reason I would say A-10/AE merger wouldn't happen is because they'd want to keep the auto bid. Then maybe they find a way to stay alive. URI is a public school so even if the MAAC wanted to house some A-10 schools, they likely wouldn't be included.



Clearly, an A10 that loses Xavier, Butler and St. Louis (with VCU the only reported other A10 under consideration with Gonzaga, St. Mary's, etc) will be in a tough spot. Is the conference still better than the also depleted CAA? Probably. Does it really matter? No, since they'd both be mid to low-majors.

One thing though, SJSU...

George Mason did NOT have an invitation from the A10.

They were under consideration, along with a number of other schools. The A10 opted for Butler and VCU to expand to 16 (14 once they replace the departing Temple and Charlotte). But GMU never got an invite. They played the game of professing their loyalty to the CAA (without an A10 invite), much like a coach who interviews for a head coaching job will pledge his loyalty to his current school when he has been told privately by the other school that he is no longer a candidate.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:39 am 
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Quinn wrote:

Clearly, an A10 that loses Xavier, Butler and St. Louis (with VCU the only reported other A10 under consideration with Gonzaga, St. Mary's, etc) will be in a tough spot. Is the conference still better than the also depleted CAA? Probably. Does it really matter? No, since they'd both be mid to low-majors.

One thing though, SJSU...

George Mason did NOT have an invitation from the A10.

They were under consideration, along with a number of other schools. The A10 opted for Butler and VCU to expand to 16 (14 once they replace the departing Temple and Charlotte). But GMU never got an invite. They played the game of professing their loyalty to the CAA (without an A10 invite), much like a coach who interviews for a head coaching job will pledge his loyalty to his current school when he has been told privately by the other school that he is no longer a candidate.


Guess we'll find out in a couple weeks then, maybe days.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:43 am 
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Pete Thamel article(previously posted in another thread)discussing potential impact on A-10 of probable BE split at http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/colleg ... &eref=sihp


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:40 pm 
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SJSUFan2010 wrote:
Quinn wrote:

Clearly, an A10 that loses Xavier, Butler and St. Louis (with VCU the only reported other A10 under consideration with Gonzaga, St. Mary's, etc) will be in a tough spot. Is the conference still better than the also depleted CAA? Probably. Does it really matter? No, since they'd both be mid to low-majors.

One thing though, SJSU...

George Mason did NOT have an invitation from the A10.

They were under consideration, along with a number of other schools. The A10 opted for Butler and VCU to expand to 16 (14 once they replace the departing Temple and Charlotte). But GMU never got an invite. They played the game of professing their loyalty to the CAA (without an A10 invite), much like a coach who interviews for a head coaching job will pledge his loyalty to his current school when he has been told privately by the other school that he is no longer a candidate.


Guess we'll find out in a couple weeks then, maybe days.


I don't think it's much of an opinion issue. It seems pretty cut and dry that if the A10 loses 2-5 of it's top programs, the conference will take a huge step backwards.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:09 pm 
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Quinn wrote:
SJSUFan2010 wrote:
Quinn wrote:

Clearly, an A10 that loses Xavier, Butler and St. Louis (with VCU the only reported other A10 under consideration with Gonzaga, St. Mary's, etc) will be in a tough spot. Is the conference still better than the also depleted CAA? Probably. Does it really matter? No, since they'd both be mid to low-majors.

One thing though, SJSU...

George Mason did NOT have an invitation from the A10.

They were under consideration, along with a number of other schools. The A10 opted for Butler and VCU to expand to 16 (14 once they replace the departing Temple and Charlotte). But GMU never got an invite. They played the game of professing their loyalty to the CAA (without an A10 invite), much like a coach who interviews for a head coaching job will pledge his loyalty to his current school when he has been told privately by the other school that he is no longer a candidate.


Guess we'll find out in a couple weeks then, maybe days.


I don't think it's much of an opinion issue. It seems pretty cut and dry that if the A10 loses 2-5 of it's top programs, the conference will take a huge step backwards.


Sure of course, but we're talking about if they can even rebuild if they fall to say 7 members or even less. An article posted today said they get 400k from tv contracts and a lot from tourney bids. But they tv money is gonna get cut at least in half and the tourney money is going to take a big hit when the top schools all leave.

But if Freaked's article is correct then they should be fine. Looks like they may only lose four schools which means they'll still have 9 even if UMass moves on. They should be ok and should be able to rebuild. I'm surprised they're passing on Richmond or VCU though.

If they do find themselves with dwindling numbers then some (maybe 4) of the private schools may consider trying to become a package deal to the MAAC. URI as a public school would have to look to the AEast. VCU rejoining GMU in the CAA makes a lot of sense to me.

Anyway I'm in hypothetical land right now (we all kind of are lately). Better to just let this play out first. Still lots of questions to be answered.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:33 pm 
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SJSUFan2010 wrote:
Quinn wrote:
SJSUFan2010 wrote:
Quinn wrote:

Clearly, an A10 that loses Xavier, Butler and St. Louis (with VCU the only reported other A10 under consideration with Gonzaga, St. Mary's, etc) will be in a tough spot. Is the conference still better than the also depleted CAA? Probably. Does it really matter? No, since they'd both be mid to low-majors.

One thing though, SJSU...

George Mason did NOT have an invitation from the A10.

They were under consideration, along with a number of other schools. The A10 opted for Butler and VCU to expand to 16 (14 once they replace the departing Temple and Charlotte). But GMU never got an invite. They played the game of professing their loyalty to the CAA (without an A10 invite), much like a coach who interviews for a head coaching job will pledge his loyalty to his current school when he has been told privately by the other school that he is no longer a candidate.


Guess we'll find out in a couple weeks then, maybe days.


I don't think it's much of an opinion issue. It seems pretty cut and dry that if the A10 loses 2-5 of it's top programs, the conference will take a huge step backwards.


Sure of course, but we're talking about if they can even rebuild if they fall to say 7 members or even less. An article posted today said they get 400k from tv contracts and a lot from tourney bids. But they tv money is gonna get cut at least in half and the tourney money is going to take a big hit when the top schools all leave.

But if Freaked's article is correct then they should be fine. Looks like they may only lose four schools which means they'll still have 9 even if UMass moves on. They should be ok and should be able to rebuild. I'm surprised they're passing on Richmond or VCU though.

If they do find themselves with dwindling numbers then some (maybe 4) of the private schools may consider trying to become a package deal to the MAAC. URI as a public school would have to look to the AEast. VCU rejoining GMU in the CAA makes a lot of sense to me.

Anyway I'm in hypothetical land right now (we all kind of are lately). Better to just let this play out first. Still lots of questions to be answered.


I think the A10 will be fine. The quality will indeed drop since the schools that would be leaving have strong programs with lots of support...just check out attendance numbers for the top A10 schools versus the bottom ones.

The only positive is that the departing schools will likely all be out of the primary A10 footprint.

Xavier, Butler, St. Louis would remove the western flank of the A10. Sucks for the A10, but it's what they'd need to give up.

If Dayton left too, which is likely, then it's totally gone.

If Dayton is left out, they'd likely remain in the A10 since they benefit from the east coast exposure versus say, the MVC. That said, if they get itchy, Dayton could always goto the MVC.

In the south, you have Richmond and VCU. If one of them left, the other is the A10 rep for the city, a consolation that is still better than being in the CAA at this point (with ODU gone).

For replacements, the A10 would have the usual candidates in the MAAC, CAA and AE. Yes, CAA schools in the south might be less encouraged to leave (GMU is the only real CAA candidate) but all the northern schools would still bolt. The remaining top of the A10 in membership is still more valuable than the top of the CAA.


I'm hoping UMass gets a spot on the football side just to finally have an all-sports conference membership. I've wanted that forever back when UMass had the A10 and Yankee split, then A10 and CAA, now A10 and MAC. A big city conference is fine for all-sports at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:06 pm 
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It looks as if the split is upon us. I think the fall out from the split and the Catholic 7's pillaging of the A-10 is that the A-10, CAA, and America East will be reduced to just 2 conferences with a few members going to other places.

CAA will be the first place the A-10 goes to restock and I imagine Hofstra and George Mason will be among those that depart. Northeastern as well if UMass leaves. If they want to bring the footprint south then UNC-Wilmington could be moving as well. At this point we could see schools like Towson and William & Mary considering the Patriot as a more stable home. America East could then either come in and offer a merger or simply take the schools that make sense to them like Drexel, Delaware, and maybe James Madison. College of Charleston likely ends up asking the SoCon for forgiveness


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:11 am 
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Muskie, I had a long post that I must not have submitted correctly on all the old stuff.

Here's the cliff notes:
No one has mentioned Richmond as a potential BE Hoops candidate.
Duquesne's also likely to stay.
It boils down to "Would you rather try your luck with Saint Joe's or Drexel? Out of all the remaining northeast non-FBS schools, your top six would include SJU, VCU, GMU, and Richmond in terms of basketball strength.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:19 am 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Muskie, I had a long post that I must not have submitted correctly on all the old stuff.

Here's the cliff notes:
No one has mentioned Richmond as a potential BE Hoops candidate.
Duquesne's also likely to stay.
It boils down to "Would you rather try your luck with Saint Joe's or Drexel? Out of all the remaining northeast non-FBS schools, your top six would include SJU, VCU, GMU, and Richmond in terms of basketball strength.


One phrase often being used by sources is "Catholic school candidates". Would rule out Richmond and VCU, as well as GW and GMU.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:25 am 
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Quinn wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
Muskie, I had a long post that I must not have submitted correctly on all the old stuff.

Here's the cliff notes:
No one has mentioned Richmond as a potential BE Hoops candidate.
Duquesne's also likely to stay.
It boils down to "Would you rather try your luck with Saint Joe's or Drexel? Out of all the remaining northeast non-FBS schools, your top six would include SJU, VCU, GMU, and Richmond in terms of basketball strength.


One phrase often being used by sources is "Catholic school candidates". Would rule out Richmond and VCU, as well as GW and GMU.


That Minnesota newspaper reported that Xavier and Butler, a non-Catholic school, were going to be joining so maybe the new league will not be exclusively Catholic. I doubt that any public schools get included though.

While some of those names JPSchmack mentioned haven't been in articles yet I venture to say that most of the reporters writing these articles are less in the know about who are plausible expansion candidates than many of the posters on this board since we are all realignment junkies. On an another note, Georgetown may have expressly said that they don't want any new members south of the Mason-Dixon completing with them and that is why Richmond and the others are completely out of the discussion, thus their omission. While I once thought Duquesne was a candidate since they are in a large market that fills the gap between Midwest and East Coast and I figured the new league would be eager for television dollars, you are probably right in that they will be left in the A-10.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:18 am 
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fighting muskie wrote:
Quinn wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
Muskie, I had a long post that I must not have submitted correctly on all the old stuff.

Here's the cliff notes:
No one has mentioned Richmond as a potential BE Hoops candidate.
Duquesne's also likely to stay.
It boils down to "Would you rather try your luck with Saint Joe's or Drexel? Out of all the remaining northeast non-FBS schools, your top six would include SJU, VCU, GMU, and Richmond in terms of basketball strength.


One phrase often being used by sources is "Catholic school candidates". Would rule out Richmond and VCU, as well as GW and GMU.


That Minnesota newspaper reported that Xavier and Butler, a non-Catholic school, were going to be joining so maybe the new league will not be exclusively Catholic. I doubt that any public schools get included though.

While some of those names JPSchmack mentioned haven't been in articles yet I venture to say that most of the reporters writing these articles are less in the know about who are plausible expansion candidates than many of the posters on this board since we are all realignment junkies. On an another note, Georgetown may have expressly said that they don't want any new members south of the Mason-Dixon completing with them and that is why Richmond and the others are completely out of the discussion, thus their omission. While I once thought Duquesne was a candidate since they are in a large market that fills the gap between Midwest and East Coast and I figured the new league would be eager for television dollars, you are probably right in that they will be left in the A-10.



True, it makes sense. But with Gonzaga publicly stating interest (and St. Mary's mentioned as a partner) I'm a bit surprised I haven't heard more about BYU as a candidate. Private, religious, out west near Gonzaga.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:14 pm 
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Quinn wrote:
True, it makes sense. But with Gonzaga publicly stating interest (and St. Mary's mentioned as a partner) I'm a bit surprised I haven't heard more about BYU as a candidate. Private, religious, out west near Gonzaga.


It comes to no surprise that Gonzaga would publicly state an interest in the new league. Any publicity for 'Zaga is good publicity and if they somehow said yes then Gonzaga and St Mary's would be getting huge pay days (and also paying big charter plane bills)

I think BYU would be in these talks if the Catholic 7 were actually serious about a cross-country private school league. There is also the football factor--if BYU ever got invited to a power 5 conference they'd be gone in a heartbeat.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:21 pm 
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So does hte new conference want 10 members and an 18-game BB schedule with home and away vs. the other 9,
or go to two 6-team divisions and play home and away vs. 5, + 3H/3A s. the 6 in the other division (for a 16-game schedule) ?

I can't see west coast schools, since it'd be a royal pain for travel in other minor Olympic Sports.

If they go to 12, with 6 "east" and 6 "west" (actually mid-west), you are looking at:

E - Providence, St. John, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown (+ 1 new "East")
W - DePaul, Milwaukee (+ 4 new "West")

Eastern Catholics schools that don't "double-up" current markets MIGHT include Holy Cross, or Duquesne (Pittsburgh).
Western Catholic schools - obvious candidates are Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis.
Butler is not Catholic, not sure that is a stumbling block, since they seem to fit the general profile very well.
(that gives you Cincy, Dayton, St. Louis, and Indy, to go with Chicago and Milwaukee.

Creighton hs theright profile (urban catholic (Omaha)), but it really stretches the footprint, and I think travel distances DO MATTER to some degree.


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