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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:13 pm 
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Assuming the Catholic schools only take three to go to 10 or five to go to 12, who are the top remaining target for the A10 to replace them with?

First I'd assume that Western schools like Creighton will be out since Bulter and STL will be gone so that leaves these as my top picks.

Northeastern
Hofstra
Drexel
George Mason
Davidson

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:31 pm 
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Here is my best guess about what we can expect to happen with the New BE Basketball and New A10 conferences

Big East
EAST Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, Richmond,
WEST Marquette, DePaul, Xavier, St. Louis, Butler, Creighton

If bigger than 12 desired Duquense, Holy Cross/UMass in the east and Dayton, Detroit in the West are other options that expand market


A10
Dayton, URI, UMASS, St Bony, Duquesne, Fordham, LaSalle, St. Joe's, George Washington, VCU

Possible A10 candidates include: George Mason, Delaware, Towson; Hofstra, Northeastern from CAA; Detroit, Cleveland St, Valpo from Horizon; Hartford and Stony Brook from American East

I have no clue what the A10 will decide to do how attractive it would be once they take a tv money hit after their big schools leave


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:17 pm 
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If the new BE has 10 teams with Xavier, Butler and Saint Louis, I would add Belmont to the list of A-10 candidates.

If the new BE has 12 teams, and the western most A10 team is Duquesne, probably not.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 10:42 am 
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Lenn Robbins article (previously posted in another thread) reporting that BE BB schools are planning to raid the A-10.He is reporting that A-10 Presidents have called an emergency meeting for next thursday to discuss the BE situation.Link at http://nypost.com/p/sports/college/bask ... DNv2ajRbTM


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:20 am 
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At this point, I'd say that the only chance the A10 has to maintain would be if the something drastic happened, like the ACC bringing in Georgetown, Villanova and St. Johns with Notre Dame...then the A10 could just add the other 4 from the BE7.

It's a shame if the A10 loses too many. Just need to hope that the BE7 hold at 10 total with only Xavier, Butler and St. Louis leaving. Having VCU, Dayton remain will help keep the conference in the Top 8 at least.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 2:18 am 
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Quinn wrote:
At this point, I'd say that the only chance the A10 has to maintain would be if the something drastic happened, like the ACC bringing in Georgetown, Villanova and St. Johns with Notre Dame...then the A10 could just add the other 4 from the BE7.

It's a shame if the A10 loses too many. Just need to hope that the BE7 hold at 10 total with only Xavier, Butler and St. Louis leaving. Having VCU, Dayton remain will help keep the conference in the Top 8 at least.


Over on the A-10 board, it's the G-D apocalypse, but I don't see it as all that dire.

#1 - Butler hasn't played a conference game yet.
#2 - SLU has one NCAA bid. And not be a jerk, but they did that with a coach they don't have anymore.

#3 - Everyone left isn't fighting for third place. Someone's going to win the 20-26 conference games those guys were winning.
First place is going to be 13-3 or 12-4. Our 4th place team will still be 11-5 or 10-6. No different than before.

The real question is "Can those 1-4 place teams get at-large bids?" Why wouldn't they?

We've been averaging 3.2 NCAA bids the last five years while going .611 in OOC games.
The 11 remaining teams, plus VCU, in the last five years are .608 in OOC games.
If UMass left, and GMU took their place, those 12 the last five years: .614 in OOC games.

The top 1/3 of the A-10 will be the same quality they were before, in terms of their own status relative to years previous. All that would change would be that spot's place relative to the rest of the NCAA at-large pool.

#4 - Why would there be fewer bids available TO the Atlantic 10 going forward?

As I said, every conference goes .500 against itself. The other conferences made their competitions of conference play harder. Last season, Virginia was 9-7 in the ACC and went 2-5 vs the top four teams; They'll be playing SU, Pitt, ND and Louisville now, instead of two games against Clemson and Maryland. They'd be 8-10 instead of 9-7. Syracuse would get THEIR BID, not one from the Atlantic 10.

The MWC who played "RPI games" with only 14 conference games, and wins in early January against weak Great West teams. More conference games = more losses. Probably not going to be able to get 4 bids anymore. SDSU will just get the Big West auto now.

The CAA without VCU, George Mason, Old Dominion is a one-bid league. The Horizon is a one bid league. Very little chances for auto-bids.

The same amount of bids will be available to the A-10 because "the big boys" are going to play each other more in conference in bigger conferences.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:11 am 
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JP lets say the BE adds Butler, Xavier, St.Louis, Dayton, Creighton

Who does the A10 get, do they go back to 14 or just 12?

GMU, Drexel, Siena, Detriot

Northeastern, Hofstra, Davidson could also be options

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:50 am 
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JP, I think some of the fears by A10 fans are warranted.

But it should mostly be about Xavier leaving. They have been a contant since joining the A10 almost 20 years ago. They've done something important: they've gone through a number of coaching changes for a "non-major" program yet have maintained the status and momentum of the program.

That is something important. There will always be coaches who are able to do wonderful things at these types of schools. But they key is how the program can sustain once the coach leaves. Butler has done it...getting even better following the losses of coaches like Matta and Lickliter. Xavier as well.

On the other end, that's one of the problems with potential A10 candidates. People still talk about GMU in the CAA. But it's important to remember that they lost their coach...a guy who had been there for a long time...and have a retread in there now, not an up-and-comer like we've seen work at other programs once a coach that built a program opts to leave. GMU took a big step back last year and this season they currently are 6-4 with an RPI of 76 in the 19th ranked conference. It's OK, don't get me wrong.

And it's worth noting that I think the worries are in regards to the loss of a region as well. St. Louis hasn't been a power. But Dayton has shown something of great value, strong support, that will be missed. Xavier and Butler have similar qualities plus a ton of success. But that's the whole region potentially leaving and it will hurt. Because the quality fo the replacements is not great.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:08 am 
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Meeting Thursday - and "Here come the exit fees !"

Watch about 10 teams push big exit fees, and Xavier, Dayton, Butler, SLU, and Duquesne hem and haw....

Let's be realistic - the A-14 could lose it's western flank.
It's not the end of the world... Xavier and Butler would be big losses, but Butler hasn't even joined the league yet.

I think the move to 14 (this past year) was partly to create a buffer for the day when the BE finally did split. They knew this day was coming - just not when.
I would look for them to go to 12, probably at the expense of the CAA northern non-FB schools - Northeastern, Hofstra...
after dropping football, they just don't seem to have a reason to stay in the CAA.
Would they be attractive to the A-10 ? I think so, with extra TV $$$, they could improve BB, and they keep the conf. footprint tight for Olympic sports travel.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:06 pm 
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It will be interesting to see how the A-10 reacts to losing members to the Catholic 7. We don't know for sure who is leaving or how many teams will be gone but it certainly doesn't hurt to start speculating.

With the western flank gone, or mostly gone I think the A-10 should abandon the midwest. This might be tough to do if St Louis is left behind but perhaps the A-1o will be willing to gracefully let them transition to the more geographically appropriate MVC.

I'm not sure what direction the A-10 is going to go though--do they target public schools or private ones? Do they put all their chips on the Northeast or do they try to draw the footprint south with schools like George Mason and UNC-Wilmington? They could give expansion a real CAA flavor if they added those two, Hofstra, and Drexel. That would give them the most successful of the CAA's remaining programs and probably result in the ones remaining seeking refuge in the Patriot and America East.

There's also the question of how many schools does the A-10 go with. Is 14 a sacred number they have to return to to save face and appear as if they are emerging strong from the raid or would a leaner meaner 10 or 12 league be better?


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:26 pm 
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I think the only number that is scared is "minimum of 8".

Why anyone thinks 14 is necessary is beyond me...

After all, the name of the Conference is "Atlantic 10"


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:59 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
I think the only number that is scared is "minimum of 8".

Why anyone thinks 14 is necessary is beyond me...

After all, the name of the Conference is "Atlantic 10"

Still I think 10 is the minimum and above that think they'd want an even number for scheduling/tournament purposes.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:32 pm 
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Sure, you want something above the NCAA minimum, if at all possible.

I'm betting the Catholic 7 will go to 12 by taking: Duquesne (for the East) and Dayton, Xavier, Butler, and SLU (for the West).
I'm not buying the Virginia thing or the Creighton thing.

That would leave A-10 at 14 - 5 = 9, and I think they would most likely re-stock with 3 schools (to 12) and take a hard look at CAA schools first.

It's all speculation, of course. The A-10 meeting Thursday will be fun. I'd kill to be a fly on the wall.
I'll bet my bottom dollar exit fees will be discussed, and we'll see who has made initial contacts with the Catholic 7 (based on their behavior).


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:03 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
tute79 wrote:
I think the only number that is scared is "minimum of 8".

Why anyone thinks 14 is necessary is beyond me...

After all, the name of the Conference is "Atlantic 10"

Still I think 10 is the minimum and above that think they'd want an even number for scheduling/tournament purposes.


Me too. Need at least 10. I still think 10 is the way to go to START a conference. They need to build something from scratch. It's been the FB schools that have been the backbone of the BE basketball product for awhile now. Yes, GTown and Marquette have been good. Nova is rebuilding a bit now and St. Johns is just above average. But Lousiville, UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, WVU, Cincinnati have been rela good.

So if you're starting something new, without your core members, I think you really need to start internally with your own fanbase before having to rely on a national/regional audience.

10 schools allows an 18 game conference schedule with home and homes for everyone. It gives Seton Hall fans a chance to see Xavier, and Xavier a chance to get Seton Hall on their floor. I use Xavier for a reason. In 2002, Xavier and Richmond played a home-and-home and it helped created a short term rivalry between the two schools (David West year) that carried over into the A10 Championship.

But those home-and-homes do wonders to introduce new members to the rest of the league and vice versa.

I think the Big East, with or without the name, need to do that. Throwing a Duquesne or Creighton into the mix with 1 game a year at the opposing school, like say, Providence, will take some time to build any conference connection. Meanwhile, there is something to be said about having an rematch game if your school loses the first time in a season versus an opponent.


The Big East has lots of options and sadly, most come from the A10. But, the A10 will survive. Look who is good now in the A10: the schools considered candidates. But also look at some previous A10 members who have departed for other conferences: Rutgers, Penn St., VA Tech, WVU to name a few. WVU became good once they left, once JB became coach and then Huggins. But the A10 has had periods where other schools have been at the top. GW under Jarvis and for 2 years under Hobbs. UMass had top success under Calipari, and then some solid-ok years under Ford (NIT Final) and Kellogg. URI has had some ups. St. Bonaventure did in the 1990s and again last year.

Point is...they will be fine with 0 additions, 1 addition, whatever it takes.

Posters are dead on about the A10: the additions of St. Louis and Charlotte were as protection for the day the Big East split. Growing to 14 and 16 for 1 season, is for the same reason. Lose 4 schools, and you are at 10. Lose even 6 schools and you are still at 8 total and only need 2 replacements to get back to where you were. That said, the conference was originally only 8 schools, the Eastern 8, Atlantic 8.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:20 am 
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Fresno St. Alum wrote:
JP lets say the BE adds Butler, Xavier, St.Louis, Dayton, Creighton
Who does the A10 get, do they go back to 14 or just 12?

Remember, the Atlantic 10 saw this coming. The reason we took Charlotte, Saint Louis, Butler and VCU was because we all thought the Big East would split after 2010. We didn't go to 14 and 16 because of an expansionist agenda, it was padding for when the Big East's Big Blow came so could absorb it. We won't be mad-scrambling for teams out of weakness, worried about being gutted like a fish (like Big East football!). We took those teams preemptively so that the MVC, CAA, Horizon or MAAC couldn't make a power-play to usurp us.

So, I'd expect 12. For a while. Then revisit.

Quinn wrote:
JP, I think some of the fears by A10 fans are warranted. But it should mostly be about Xavier leaving.
On the other end, that's one of the problems with potential A10 candidates. People still talk about GMU in the CAA. But it's important to remember that they lost their coach...
… But that's the whole region potentially leaving and it will hurt. Because the quality fo the replacements is not great.


Your coaching point on Mason is a damned good one.
But most importantly: the quality of replacements is not great.

There's three schools I'd consider, and three schools only. Not because I think we're better than everyone else (ok, I do think that), but imagine a "Atlantic 10 Replaces Xavier, Temple, Butler, Dayton, Saint Louis and Charlotte with… Siena." headline. No disrespect to Siena, but you're talking about 89 NCAA bids and Six Final Fours being replaced by Siena's 4-6 NCAA record.

There'd be TWO SCHOOLS available to us that have gotten an at-large bid in the last TWENTY YEARS. George Mason has done it twice, and Iona being the other.

If you compare teams like Siena and Iona to teams like La Salle and Duquense, you know what the difference is? Siena and Iona have earned auto-bids playing in conferences that don't have Xavier, Temple, Dayton, Saint Joe's, etc, etc.

Despite the coaching change, Mason has a Final Four banner hanging in their gym that isn't 40 years old and no one else available to us does. Their name recognition is fading, but no one else really has any to begin with.

So they're my 12th. And if UMass leaves, I take either Quinnipiac or Stony Brook to remain at 12. Both are spending money on athletics and trying to up their game. No one available to us brings TV so why bother splitting the small contract we'd get any further.

The biggest problem facing the A-10 if we lose all those guys has nothing to do with basketball or membership. It would be the perception that we're a "mid-major who just lost all our best teams, making us a one-bid league."

So, I don't think you try to replace five or six departing members. Before you try to sell your product in more markets, you need to show everyone that your product is still a good one first.

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