So what would this leave as options for the ACC. I see the ACC holding up with 10 members and avoiding a championship game that has never been very sucessful for the ACC. This would also increase share per school if the current contact was not reduced by ESPN.
Georgia Tech if not taken by the Big Ten
North Carolina State
Not sure if Notre Dame would continue to partipate in this 10 member league. I am guessing Notre Dame would have no problem and continue to gain benefits without having to join as a full member.
Basically the ACC would become the old Big East ironically before the first ACC raid. Tit for Tat would be the Big East response.
This 10 member may not be a bad situation for the future by playing round robin football and double round robin basketball.
GOR may finally be possilbe if not other ACC teams are targets for other leagues.
I beleive the Big 12 is content on holding up with 10 and would most likley not want any ACC school that did not include Florida State in the mix.
I think if UVA and UNC bolt to the Big Ten that the SEC would go for VPI and NCSU.
The reason FSU/Clemson were being tossed around was that they were outsiders to the 7 Tabbaco Road teams (4NC/2VA/MD) and it seemed that those bonds were virtually unbreakable. Maryland's gone and its showing some weakness in the ACC but if UVA/UNC jump to the Big Ten then its over. and .
Without UVA, VA Tech is not attached to the rest of the ACC/BE and obviously would ditch them like they did the BE in 2004.
Similarly if UNC goes then their BOR would surely grant NCSU the ability to move as well. NCSU has less in common with the rest of whats left in the ACC/BE and more in common with FSU/Clemson that would all fit into the SEC. (No one wants to be left in the weakest conference while their rival schools jump ship).
And it appears that reported rumor is very similar to ND, NU, MU, MD, Rutgers to the Big Ten back in 2010. Nebraska/ND were to add fb strength/eyeballs while MD/Rut/MU added markets. The Big Ten realized after adding Nebraska that they needed more markets (like most of us thought) and grabbed them.
The difference is that the SEC doesn't need more football strength (nearly half the league was in the top ten) and as much as I hate to admit it A&M was a slam dunk for them in both (Mizzou not so much). The SEC STILL needs markets because all they have is some "pull" in TX/FL/MO/TN plus ATL and NOLA. The other schools are in small market states like MS/AL/KY/SC so adding more major markets and/or new states is a must especially with the SEC network on the horizon.
The only Southern"ish" markets out there w/ a legitimate fb school not in a state with an exsiting SEC school are NC (total pop of 10 mil/DMA over 7mil) VA (total pop of 8 mil+9mil BaltDC/DMA over 4mil+7mil BaltDC) OK (total pop 3 million), KS (total pop 3 million), and WV (2 million). (I'd add Cincy/Pitt to the list but at this time I think the SEC is trying to work with the Big Ten and taking Mizzou already pushed into their territory a bit so I'd doubt they'd grab those two school in two of their premeir states any time soon.)
Besides them you get into estimated market penetration of exsisting SEC states, which is low.
The SEC only has 1 school in...
Texas (total pop of 26 mil) even if you added UT you'd still not get close to 20 mil penetration so estimated impact would be less than 10 million
Florida (total pop of 19 mil) even if you added FSU or Miami (Miami would most likely do better in the South market since FSU and UF are in the North) you'd still not get close to 16 mil penetration so estimated impact would be less than 8 million.
Georgia (total pop of 10 million) so adding GA Tech a best would get you 4 million in market penetration making them an unlikely addition if other options are available.
South Carolina (total pop of 5 million) so adding Clemson at best would get you 2-3 million in market penetration making them an unlikely addition if other options are available.
Kentucky (total pop of 4.5 million) so adding Louiville at best would get you 1 million in market penetration making them an unlikely addition if other options are available.
So adding NC/VPI seem like the most realistic possibilities but I could see them grabbing FSU or another TX school (if the Big 12 didn't have the GOR no way on Houston/SMU/Rice) but Clemson doesn't look very apealing. Its one of those move you do for rivalries and history but that would be different than every move we've seen thus far (with the big conferences).
Still if we use your pedictions, I have a hard time thinking the ACC after losing their Big 5 in Maryland, Virginia, UNC, FSU, and Clemson will just stand pat.
I understand your logic but I have a feeling that they'll feel the need to at least add UConn (the most attractive bball school in their footprint) and possibly a solid fb school like Cinncy or USF (if Miami wants) to get back to 12. If 14 is the real goal then USF and Temple would be the most logical candidates and people would still respect the conference's lineup that now completes the consolidation of the 6 AQ BCS conferences circa 2004 (w/ Temple) 2005 (w/ UL/UC/USF/UConn).
Besides possibly adding Army/Navy/ND, any future additions from any of the nonAQs including the Big East would be met with distain (similar to how we feel about the Big East now) and the ACC would be at risk of joining the non-AQs when the new playoff deal is renegotiated in 2025.
I like it, I like it alot and think it would be a boom for the Big Ten and SEC.
For the Big Ten, they add Virginia and UNC. It gives them 3 "southern" states, all great academic schools, and access to DC, Richmond, Norfolk, Raleigh-Durham and all of VA and NC.
For the SEC, the add NC State and Virginia Tech and they get the same effect...a push north for them to cover even more states. Both schools have a culture that could easily fit in. We're not talking about adding BC or Duke to the SEC, its NC State and VA Tech.
For the ACC, it would be a tough blow.
And one would have to think that the blow would be big enough for Florida St., Miami, Clemson and Georgia Tech to push HARD for the Big 12 at that point. And you know what? Despite the issues Texas has with expansion, adding 4 of the top 5 FB programs from the ACC would be a huge score.
So you'd have an ACC of Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, Wake Forest, Louisville (and Notre Dame for basketball) if those 4 left for the Big 12 (if the Big 12 even wanted them).
So if you have all 10+ND, you just add an 11th and a 12th (Uconn, Cincinnati, Temple, USF, UCF options).
If you lose 4 to the Big 12, you'd have the 6 (7 with ND) and you just slot in 4-6 from Big East (as of now). Schools like UMass and Memphis might be fits at that point as well.
But for now, it seems all is well in the Big Ten so the ACC should be fine.
But the ACC is clearly the next in line to be picked apart, as the Big East and MWC were before. The monster is only getting bigger and the ACC has no place else to hide.