We should probably rank the schools based upon location as well since more midwestern schools are needed over eastern schools.
Once they settle on a number we can likely guess who will get in.
Xavier, Butler for sure
One, Two, or Three of Dayton, Creighton, and St. Louis (Depending on 10, 12, or 14)
Zero, One, or Two of Richmond, VCU, Duquesne (Depedning on 10, 12, 14)
Anyone candidates missing?
Just a few candidates if they decide to go to 16 like Detroit, Witchita St, Davidson but you got the main ones
I think acc has them all covered. I dont' see 14 being an option since it's just more mouths to feed for a 1st time TV contract...which is going to be lower than a TV contract for a proven contract. Just look at the MWC history as an example.
That said, I dont' see 16 ever happening unless there are high quality schools. OR, if the goal was to have an 8 school western division and an 8 school eastern (meaning Gonzaga, St. Mary's, LMU and say BYU or Denver as #8 in the west with 4 midwest schools like Creighton, St. Louis, DePaul and Marquette).
10 would be the ideal number for a starter conference for basketball. Would allow for home-and-home scheduling to build the necessary rivalries to drive ratings in the 2 participating cities.
I could see 12 being another option is the goal was to create divisions of east and west. So with DePaul, Marquette, Butler and Xavier, you could add another 2 from Creighton, St. Louis and Dayton for a 6 school western division. In the east, you'd have 6 with Providence, St. Johns, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown and a 6th school. For that group, it would be interesting since there are a number of options. You'd probably see a new market added, which is why Richmond or VCU would likely take that spot IF the conference went to 12 members. It's close enough to DC, spreads the footprint a bit south in the process.
So I do think that all the candidates get covered in those 2 primary scenarios:
10 schools: add Xavier, Butler and either St. Louis or Dayton. Creighton might be too far west for 10 schools since the gap would be Omaha to Chicago
12 schools: Xavier, Butler, St. Louis, and 2 more from Creighton, Dayton, VCU/Richmond.
14 schools: I don't see this happening for $$$ reasons: Xavier, Butler, St. Louis, Creighton, Dayton, VCU/Richmond, Duquesne
16 schools: top 6 from above combined with 3 from the west with Gonzaga plus a pair from the group of Denver, BYU, LMU, St. Marys.